Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand balance of styrene may deepen, and visible inventory is expected to maintain a destocking trend. The EB2601 contract is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with technical support around 6270 and resistance around 6600 [2]. - Last week, non - integrated plant losses decreased, and integrated plant profits expanded. Due to the maintenance of Sinochem Quanzhou's 450,000 - tonne plant, domestic styrene supply is expected to decline slightly this week [2]. - Downstream EPS demand is weak with high inventory, and there is a slight downward adjustment expectation for plant operation. PS plants are in a phased recovery state, and ABS plant supply is expected to remain high [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) was 361,779, and the closing price was 6,533 yuan/ton. The 1 - month contract closing price was also 6,533 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active contract increased by 116,537, and the closing price decreased by 5,728 [2]. - The long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 319,939 lots, with a decrease of 3,466 lots; the net long - position volume was - 45,468 lots, an increase of 2,046 lots; the short - position volume was 407,247 lots, a decrease of 7,774 lots; the total warehouse receipt quantity was 200 lots, a decrease of 1,260 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,636 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 802 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China intermediate price was 812 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The mainstream prices in Northeast, North, South, and East China were 6,275 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), 6,695 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6,430 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 6,510 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 731 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 721 US dollars/ton (unchanged), 639 US dollars/ton (down 2.5 US dollars/ton), and 457 US dollars/ton (down 6 US dollars/ton) respectively [2]. - The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB), Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB) were 661.33 cents/gallon (unchanged), 273 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton), and 721 US dollars/ton (down 15 US dollars/ton) respectively. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5,300 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and 5,290 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene plant operating rate was 68.95%, a decrease of 0.3%. The national styrene inventory was 188,096 tons, a decrease of 1,335 tons. The total inventory at the East China main port was 164,200 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons, and the trade inventory was 94,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 56.27% (up 4.64%), 72.4% (up 0.6%), 55.9% (up 0.5%), 37% (up 1%), and 74.76% (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, China's styrene plant output was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous period, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 68.95%, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. - From November 14th to 20th, the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS in the styrene downstream was 269,600 tons, an increase of 3.45% [2]. - As of November 20th, the styrene plant inventory was 188,100 tons, a decrease of 0.70% from the previous week. As of November 24th, the East China port inventory was 164,200 tons, an increase of 10.72% from the previous week, and the South China port inventory was 15,600 tons, an increase of 11.43% from the previous week [2]. - As of November 19th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 225 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 139.67 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market presents a situation of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable while the demand weakens slightly due to the off - season. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,720 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,801 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, down 2,225 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.66, up 0.03 [2]. - **Other Aluminum Products**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,695 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 21,400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 655 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The basis of alumina was 50 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Raw Materials**: The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap was 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume was 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina production was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The export volume of alumina was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import volume was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume was 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The aluminum product output was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.23%, down 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.35%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 9.02%, down 0.0079% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.63, up 0.1021 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Data and Energy**: The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [2]. - **Automobile Market**: In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles. Tesla's new car registrations decreased by 48%, BYD's increased by 195%, SAIC Group's increased by 56%, and Toyota's decreased by 10.8% [2]. - **Economic News**: A Fed governor called for significant interest rate cuts. US PPI and retail sales data showed inflation resurgence and a slowdown in consumption growth. The China - US presidential call had a positive atmosphere [2].

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-26 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 棉价震荡偏上运行为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13625 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20070 | 5 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -100315 | -2989 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -854 | 95 | | | 主力合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply is tightening. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] - The rapeseed oil market is supported by tight supply as the import of rapeseed is restricted and oil mills are mostly shut down, and it will continue the de - stocking mode. But the demand is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9819 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2439 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 279 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 52 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 13487 lots, up 4267 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 10080 lots, up 2966 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3965 sheets, down 3 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] - The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 647.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10110 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10196.25 yuan/ton, down 87.5 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7896.7 yuan/ton, up 17.9 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 4.02, unchanged [2] - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 1 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8290 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume for the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 758 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12500 tons, down 8300 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 100 tons, down 1900 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 364500 tons, down 36000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 226600 tons, down 3000 tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 11500 tons, down 3300 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 230000 tons, up 7000 tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 8600 tons, down 1500 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 200 tons, down 100 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.276 million tons, down 674000 tons [2] - The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.74%, down 1.34% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.86%, down 1.7%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.84%, up 0.02% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, unchanged [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.98%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.65%, up 0.03% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On November 25, ICE rapeseed futures rose for the second consecutive day. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 648.10 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 4.10 Canadian dollars to settle at 661.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. However, the domestic crushing consumption of US soybeans is good, and China has purchased nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30, supporting the price of US soybeans, which have been fluctuating widely at a high level recently [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the rapeseed inventory is zero with oil mills shut down, tightening the supply. However, the demand for rapeseed meal has declined due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. Short - term observation is recommended, and later attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - Internationally, the US government is considering delaying the plan to cut biofuel import incentives, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in November increased while exports declined, increasing the inventory pressure and dragging down the international oil market. Domestically, China - Canada trade negotiations have not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs, the import of rapeseed is restricted, and oil mills are mostly shut down. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, supporting its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs due to the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined due to the weakening of palm oil, but it may continue to be stronger than palm oil, and short - term participation is recommended [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with positive demand expectations and inventory reduction in the industry. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 96,340 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 165,500 lots, down 2,032 lots; the position of the main contract was 478,054 lots, up 134,855 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 440 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 27,050 lots, up 435 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,800 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,400 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,540 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,180 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 10,250 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume was 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries was 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the prices of manganese - acid lithium, hexafluorophosphate lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials remained unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 38,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000, up 155,000; the monthly sales volume was 1,715,000, up 111,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume was 12,943,000, up 3,193,000; the monthly export volume was 256,000, up 34,000; the cumulative export volume was 2,014,000, up 956,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 61.17%, down 0.06%; the 40 - day average volatility was 45.79%, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position was 257,186 lots, up 716; the total put position was 234,433 lots, up 31,755; the put - call ratio of the total position was 91.15%, up 12.1271%; the implied volatility at the at - the - money strike was 0.40%, up 0.0203% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Tianqi Lithium's chairman said that the global lithium demand in 2026 is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, and the industry will break through homogeneous competition. European car sales in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with different performances among brands. The new national standard for mobile power is expected to be officially released in February or March next year, and the industry cost may increase by 20% - 30% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - Last week, tire companies had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. As the production scheduling of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire companies this week may show a restorative increase, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue, restricting the increase in capacity utilization rate [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,360 yuan/ton, and the position volume is 63,030, a decrease of 5,705 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,880 tons, a decrease of 80 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50), from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50) [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 140 yuan/ton, and the spread is - 90 [2]. - Brent crude oil is 62.48 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.89), WTI crude oil is 57.95 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 0.89), the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton (unchanged), the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 560.88 dollars/ton (a decrease of 1.75), the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 820 dollars/ton (a decrease of 20), and the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons (an increase of 3,800), and the capacity utilization rate is 72.53% (a decrease of 0.49 percentage points) [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons (an increase of 10,800), and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26% (an increase of 1.01 percentage points) [2]. - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 137,600 tons (an increase of 7,200), and the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.64% (an increase of 2.72 percentage points) [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton (a decrease of 352), the social inventory is 31,500 tons (an increase of 700), the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons (an increase of 780), and the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons (a decrease of 90) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05% (a decrease of 3.63 percentage points), and that of full - steel tires is 62.25% (a decrease of 2.25 percentage points) [2]. - The monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces (a decrease of 720,000), and that of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces (a decrease of 8.57 million) [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days (an increase of 0.69), and those of semi - steel tires are 45.86 days (an increase of 0.5) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices restarted, and domestic production increased restoratively. Recently, the raw material buyers actively followed up, and the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, the raw material buyers actively followed up, the cost support of cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, the supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources increased, but the spot resources remained tight. High - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and private enterprises' price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up, with some transactions weakening [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The international market is moving towards a situation of loose supply, the raw sugar market lacks positive driving factors, and prices remain low. In the domestic market, the new sugar season has fully started. Some sugar mills' crushing progress has been delayed due to rainfall. With the low international raw sugar prices and high sales profits of processing enterprises, the imported sugar volume increased significantly in October, resulting in obvious import supply pressure. Short - term sugar prices show no sign of stopping the decline and are expected to continue to be weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Category 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; the main contract position is 394,080 lots, a decrease of 12,249 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,693, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for sugar is - 62,644 lots. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,114 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,163 yuan/ton [2] 2. Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,214 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,277 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,595 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2] 4. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 602.29 million tons, a decrease of 12 million tons. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 241.88 million tons, unchanged. The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 75 million tons, an increase of 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, an increase of 74 million tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, an increase of 34.39 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2] 6. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.05%, an increase of 0.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 9.05%, an increase of 0.25%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.76%, a decrease of 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.01%, unchanged [2] 7. Industry News - Brazil's export data shows that in the first three weeks of November, Brazil exported 2.564 million tons of sugar, with a daily average export volume of 183,000 tons, a 3% increase compared to the daily average export volume of the whole month of November last year. The ICE raw sugar futures rose on Tuesday, with the most actively traded March raw sugar futures rising 0.09 cents or 0.6% to settle at 14.82 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A股 major indices closed with a mixed performance, with the market showing a pattern where large - cap blue - chip stocks outperformed small and medium - cap stocks. The overall economic fundamentals in China were weak in October, and the LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months, indicating a prudent monetary policy. Although the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 24th boosted short - term market risk appetite, the market will maintain a random - walk state and the stock index will remain volatile due to the lack of continuous upward momentum [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF (2512) was at 4493.0, up 18.6; IH (2512) was at 2964.6, up 4.2; IC (2512) was at 6909.4, unchanged; IM (2512) was at 7176.2, down 6.6. The prices of their respective secondary contracts also showed different changes [2]. 3.1.2 Futures Price Spreads - IF - IH spread was 1528.4, up 14.6; IC - IF spread was 2416.4, down 10.6; IM - IC spread was 266.8, down 5.2, etc. The spreads between different contracts and different quarters also had various changes [2]. 3.1.3 Futures Open Interest - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased, with decreases of 1104.0, 64.0, 460.0, and 998.0 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4517.63 (up 27.2), 2971.8 (up 3.6), 6965.1 (up 10.4), and 7248.5 (down 1.5) respectively. The basis of their corresponding futures contracts also changed accordingly [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 17,971.90 billion yuan, down 289.79 billion yuan; margin trading balance was 24,630.32 billion yuan, up 43.63 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume was 2153.06 billion yuan, down 210.01 billion yuan, etc. The market sentiment indicators showed different trends [2]. 3.4 Industry News - A - share major indices ended with a mixed performance, with most industry sectors falling. The defense and military industry sector led the decline, while the communication sector strengthened significantly. China's economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - On November 26 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were to be released; at 23:00, the US October PCE and core PCE were due. On November 27 at 9:30, China's October industrial profits of large - scale enterprises were to be announced; on November 30 at 9:30, China's November manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI were to be released [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The short - term apple futures price is expected to maintain high - level operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,531 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 137,175 hands, with an increase of 12,638 hands compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,910 hands, a decrease of 990 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change in all the prices compared to the previous period [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The national total apple cold - storage inventory is 773.16 million tons, the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.54, an increase of 0.03, and the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.53, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, with the monthly apple export amount year - on - year growth rate at - 14.3%, and the monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale prices of pear, banana, and watermelon are 6.71 yuan/kg, 5.37 yuan/kg, and 5.78 yuan/kg respectively. The daily average number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets in the morning is 12.2, 16, and 23.8 respectively, with no change compared to the previous period [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.26%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.27% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The trading of inventory apples in apple - producing areas is generally inactive. Merchants are making tentative purchases for market distribution, but the market sales speed is slow. The trading is somewhat stalemated, and the transaction prices change little. There is a small amount of remaining ground - sourced apples in Shandong and Shanxi, with a decline in quality, and most of the transactions are based on negotiated prices. Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, the ground - sourced trading is gradually ending, and the trading of stored - sourced goods is limited [2]. 3.8观点总结 - In Shandong, the ground - sourced trading in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, with a small amount of apples being stored in some places like Qixia, and the storage of some Cream Fuji is also ending. In Shaanxi, the storage is basically completed, and the production area has started to transfer to outbound storage. In northern Shaanxi, most merchants distribute their self - stored goods, and there is a small amount of goods transferred through some foreign - trade channels. In southern Shaanxi, fruit farmers' goods are mainly transferred, and the transaction is better than that in northern Shaanxi. Some of the goods go to the second - and third - tier markets, and some are transferred by Shandong merchants. The performance of the sales area market is average, and attention should be paid to the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Recently, the strong iron ore price, positive macro - factors, and larger reduction of short positions in near - month contracts supported the steel price to run strongly. However, short positions in far - month mainstream contracts increased significantly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross at a high level. It is expected that the price may consolidate in a range in the short - term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position volume was 1,200,700 lots, down 100,338 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 72,292 lots, down 25,719 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 17 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,519 tons, down 7,773 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,364 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 181 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 15,050.88 million tons, down 75.04 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 43.33 million tons, up 7.30 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, up 0.25 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 116.1 million tons, down 0.56 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, down 0.26 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.59%, up 1.74 percentage points; the inventory in sample steel mills was 153.32 million tons, down 7.10 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,475 million tons, up 41 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 928 million tons, down 64 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 652,939 million square meters, down 4,359 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 49,061 million square meters, down 3,662 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 39,645 million square meters, up 292 million square meters [2] Industry News - In mid - November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.43 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.943 billion tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output month - on - month; 17.97 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.797 billion tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.24 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.924 billion tons, a 2.1% increase in daily output month - on - month. Trump said that the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was "very close to being reached", but European leaders were skeptical. White House Press Secretary Levitt said on the 25th that there were still some delicate details in the peace agreement proposed by the US to end the Ukraine crisis, but these problems were not insurmountable [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]