Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market has near - term supply pressure reduction due to less near - month rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal aquaculture demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues, with a bullish bias and high volatility [2]. - The rapeseed oil market faces short - term consumption off - season and ample supply, but low oil mill operation rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market shows a narrow - range oscillation and suggests a bullish approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9891 yuan/ton (up 1), rapeseed meal at 2547 yuan/ton (up 4), ICE rapeseed at 665 CAD/ton (up 3.2), and domestic rapeseed at 4843 yuan/ton (down 29) [2]. - Spreads and positions: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 174 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was 74 yuan/ton (unchanged). Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 291283 hands (down 5), rapeseed meal were 422516 hands (up 1488). Rapeseed oil net long positions of top 20 were 6365 hands (down 98), rapeseed meal were - 4882 hands (up 3873) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 (unchanged), rapeseed meal were 8066 (down 187) [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9950 yuan/ton (up 50), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2580 yuan/ton (up 40), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), imported rapeseed cost was 8346.97 yuan/ton (up 66.31) [2]. - Ratios and spreads: The oil - meal ratio was 3.84 (up 0.05), rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 60 yuan/ton (down 49), rapeseed meal main - contract basis was 33 yuan/ton (up 36), rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1270 yuan/ton (up 20), rapeseed - palm oil spread was 410 yuan/ton (up 130), soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 480 yuan/ton (down 30) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), domestic rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). Rapeseed imports were 17.6 million tons (down 0.85 million tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 million tons (up 4 million tons), rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 million tons (up 7.56 million tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory at oil mills was 15 million tons (unchanged), imported rapeseed weekly operation rate was 12.79% (up 0.85%), imported rapeseed crushing profit was 613 yuan/ton (down 18) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons (down 0.55 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons (up 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons (up 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons (up 0.29 million tons), rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons (up 0.52 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: Feed production was 2937.7 million tons (up 175.6 million tons), edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 million tons (up 41.8 million tons), and catering revenue was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: Rapeseed meal call option implied volatility was 20.89% (up 0.18%), put option implied volatility was 0.13% (up 0.07%), 60 - day historical volatility was 20.89% (up 0.11%), 20 - day historical volatility was 22.11% (up 0.07%). Rapeseed oil call option implied volatility was 14.39% (up 0.29%), put option implied volatility was 0.49% (up 0.3%), 60 - day historical volatility was 14.99% (up 0.13%), 20 - day historical volatility was 19.87% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose on August 22 due to rising soybean oil prices. The November contract closed 3.20 CAD higher at 666.50 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 3.10 CAD to 677.50 CAD/ton [2]. - Pro Farmer predicted US soybean average yield at a record - high 53.0 bushels/acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, similar to USDA forecasts [2]. - AAFC estimated Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons (up 12.9% from July), and ending stocks at 2.2 million tons (doubled from last month) [2]. - The US EPA's new decision on small refinery biofuel exemptions may boost large - refinery biofuel demand and benefit US soybean oil [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current egg supply is relatively abundant due to the high inventory of laying hens, the large pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishment, and the continuous delivery of cold - storage eggs. Terminal demand is weak, and the high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. The willingness of breeding enterprises to sell at low prices to reduce inventory increases, resulting in the continuous under - performance of the spot market price and the continuous loss of the breeding end. The slow de - capacity in the industry may continue to restrict egg prices during the peak seasons of school openings and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3021 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 12 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 54965 hands, a decrease of 12313 hands; the monthly spread between contracts 1 - 5 is - 99 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 21 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 462532 hands, an increase of 28251 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.04 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 21 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 3 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27; the national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89; the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.2 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.4 yuan; the national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33; the average price of laying - hen compound feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.11 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.84 yuan; the national culling age of hens is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.11 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.85 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.57 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.16 days, an increase of 0.13 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7439 tons, a decrease of 166 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared with yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.70 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,898.00 | +66.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,680.00 | +38.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 569,284.00 | -20065.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 437,597.00 | -5312.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -82,183.00 | -2933.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -35,432.00 | +281.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 100.00 | +10.00↑ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 168.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 68,919.00 | -1175.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 20,234.00 | -240.00↓ | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated strongly. The Fed Chairman's speech strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The weekly output of rebar continued to decline while inventory increased as downstream buyers purchased on - demand during the off - season. In the short term, due to the rising expectation of Fed rate cut and the pre - parade production restriction period, steel prices may fluctuate strongly. The 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,138.00 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the open interest was 1,347,830 lots, down 63,773 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 112,560 lots, down 8,361 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 162,206 tons, up 3,573 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 251 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Hangzhou (weighed), it was 3,426 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,310.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 202.00 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 110.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781.00 yuan/wet ton, up 15 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,845.20 million tons, up 25.93 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 39.38 million tons, up 0.33 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 609.69 million tons, down 0.09 million tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 116.09 million tons, up 3.57 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03% [2] Industry Situation - The output of rebar of sample steel mills was 214.65 million tons, down 5.80 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 47.05%, down 1.28%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 174.53 million tons, up 2.27 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 432.51 million tons, up 17.58 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, down 1.05%. The domestic crude steel output was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 939.00 million tons, up 18.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.60%, down 1.20; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 12.00%, down 0.80; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 638,731 million square meters, down 5,410 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,206 million square meters, down 4,842 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 40,536.00 million square meters, up 285.00 million square meters [2] Industry News - In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. On August 25, six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on optimizing real estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, optimizing personal housing credit, and improving personal housing property tax policies, which will take effect on August 26, 2025 [2]

Report General Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 25 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03109641 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0018457 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The inventory of old - season apples is low, which still supports the price. However, with the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples, the price increase rhythm is restricted, showing a range - bound market. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the coloring and listing situation of early - maturing apples [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8141 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 77,654 lots, with an increase of 2,964 lots [2] - The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 1,128 lots, a decrease of 1,128 lots [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 3.7 yuan/jin, and in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commodity) is 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] - The average wholesale price of apples is 9.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.5 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg [2] - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.07, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.01 [2] - The monthly export volume of apples is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 63.284 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1.742602 billion US dollars, a decrease of 212.886 million US dollars [2] - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.4 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.35 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 3.54 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 5.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg [2] - The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11.4 vehicles, an increase of 3.8 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 22.2 vehicles, an increase of 7.2 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 4.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.28%, and that of at - the - money put options is 19.28%, an increase of 1.5% [2] Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Gala apple trading in the western production area entered the later stage, with poor overall quality and few high - quality goods, and the actual transaction prices were chaotic [2] - In the Shandong production area, the trading of stored Fuji apples was slow, with fruit farmers and inventory merchants eager to sell, and most transactions were made at discounted prices. The early - maturing Luli and Meiba apples were priced according to quality, and the sales volume was average [2] - On Monday, the Apple 2510 contract closed up 0.63. According to Mysteel statistics, the preliminary estimate of the national apple output in the new season is 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] - As of August 20, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main national production areas was 39.45 million tons, a decrease of 6.56 million tons compared with the previous week [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the weakening US dollar, the price of ICE cotton futures closed higher. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price is firm. Although inland spinning mills have no profit, there are expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops. Overall, the tight supply of old crops and the expectation of improved demand are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the increased production of new cotton. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,120 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position is - 54,544 lots, down 6,028 lots; main contract position of cotton is 504,609 lots, up 19,701 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 7,104 lots, down 94 lots. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,165 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the top 20 net position of cotton yarn futures is - 709 lots, down 329 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,276 lots, up 318 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of cotton yarn is - 8 lots [2]. Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,235 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 14,297 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,931 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,505 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 857 thousand tons, up 7 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110 thousand tons, unchanged; the profit of imported cotton is 946 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 2,189.8 thousand tons, down 640 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; the monthly output of cloth is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 11.08%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 11.11%, up 0.59%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.23%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.74%, up 0.05% [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of August 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 1.7126 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1435 million tons (a decrease of 7.73%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 0.9842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1477 million tons (a decrease of 13.05%); the commercial cotton in inland areas is 0.4027 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0162 million tons (a decrease of 3.87%). Last Friday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.79%. On Monday, the 2601 contract of cotton closed up 0.75%, and the 2511 contract of cotton yarn closed up 0.45% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The SH2601 contract of caustic soda fluctuated weakly and closed at 2,732 yuan/ton. Supply - side capacity utilization decreased slightly last week. Demand - side showed an upward trend in the start - up rates of downstream industries. Liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased significantly. This week, some plants plan to stop and restart, and the capacity utilization is expected to rise slightly. The alumina industry's strong demand and non - aluminum seasonal demand increase support caustic soda demand. The spot price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate little this week, and the end - year alumina project commissioning gives a premium space to the 01 contract. The SH2601 is expected to operate between 2,660 - 2,820 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the main contract position was 126,264 lots, an increase of 722 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,351 lots, an increase of 6,589 lots; the main contract trading volume was 516,749 lots, a decrease of 58,894 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 860 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,688 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 83.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%. As of August 21st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above in the country was 396,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [3] 3.7 View Summary - Supply - side capacity utilization decreased slightly last week. Demand - side, the start - up rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries increased. Liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased significantly. This week, some plants plan to stop and restart, and the capacity utilization is expected to rise slightly. The alumina industry's strong demand and non - aluminum seasonal demand increase support caustic soda demand. The spot price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate little this week, and the end - year alumina project commissioning gives a premium space to the 01 contract. The SH2601 is expected to operate between 2,660 - 2,820 yuan/ton [3]

尿素产业日报 2025-08-25 动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1745 | -3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -44 | -1 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 222940 | 13639 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -37480 | -2983 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 5123 | 1050 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1750 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1740 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1700 | -40 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1760 | -20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 1 | 5 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 450 | 0 | | 产业情况 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the overall trend remains weak, and a bearish approach is recommended. The expected opening price of new grain in domestic main producing areas is not high, large grain - using enterprises' inventories can connect with the new season's corn, some processing enterprises are stopping purchases, and factors like policy - grain rotation and wheat substitution are suppressing the market, cooling the bullish sentiment and expanding the downward range of the spot market [2]. - For corn starch, the overall trend also remains weak, and a bearish approach is recommended. With the resumption of work of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2154 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2481 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 8 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures open interest: 28815 hands for yellow corn and 984080 hands for corn starch. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 120088 hands for corn and - 22883 hands for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 94340 hands for yellow corn (down 8950 hands) and 7450 hands for corn starch (unchanged) [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 411.75 cents/bushel, down 1 cent. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1566367 contracts, an increase of 16491 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 105210 contracts, an increase of 27964 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2368.43 yuan/ton, down 5.1 yuan. Factory quotes for corn starch are 2710 yuan/ton in Changchun, 2950 yuan/ton in Weifang, and 2880 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1923.11 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 15.9 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is 229 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2431.61 yuan/ton, down 0.39 yuan. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.12 million tons (down 0.25 million tons). In Brazil, the sown area is 22.6 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 131 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - In Argentina, the sown area is 53 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 7.5 million tons (unchanged). In China, the sown area is 295 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 44.3 million tons (unchanged). In Ukraine, the output is 30.5 million tons (unchanged) [2]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 67.1 tons (down 8 tons), and at northern ports are 203 tons (down 44 tons). Deep - processing corn inventories are 314.7 tons (down 25.5 tons) [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventories are 133.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons from last week, a weekly increase of 0.53%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.61% [2][3]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons (down 10 tons), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons (down 13.28 tons) [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons [2]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - The average inventory days of sample feed corn are 28.85 days, down 0.76 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 113.62 tons, down 0.44 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 43.57% (up 1.57%), and the operating rate of starch enterprises is 52.3% (down 3.6%) [2]. 3.8 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.29% (up 0.42%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.94% (up 0.08%) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.89% (up 1.01%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.91% (up 1.04%) [2]. 3.9 Industry News - ProFarmer's final yield forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast of 16.742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [2]. - As of August 20, the harvest progress of Argentine corn in the 2024/25 season is 95.9%, 1.3% higher than a week ago but 2.8% lower than the same period last year and 1.1% lower than the five - year average [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, as well as the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, due to the release of copper mine supply, the spot index of copper concentrate TC has rebounded but is still in the negative range. The firmness of copper mines still supports the copper price. In terms of supply, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly. In terms of demand, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption is still relatively flat. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have a certain demand for advance stocking, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and the industry inventory remains in the medium - low range. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.18, a month - on - month increase of 0.0267. The sentiment in the options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,690 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,809 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 111,351 lots, down 9551 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 1,913 lots, up 1702 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,350 tons, unchanged. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons, down 4663 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,350 tons, up 600 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 24,148 tons, down 2856 tons. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,395 yuan/ton, up 565 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,385 yuan/ton, up 535 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 295 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 78.38 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/thousand tons, down 3.47 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,400 yuan/metal ton, up 540 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.79%, up 1.39 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, up 0.58 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 10.89%, up 0.0091 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.18, up 0.0267. [2] 3.7行业消息 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has joined the dovish camp, opening the door for a Fed rate cut in September. The market has increased its bets on a US rate cut. Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, listening to a report on the implementation of the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy, and studying opinions on releasing the potential of sports consumption and further promoting the high - quality development of the sports industry. From January to July, the added value of the five major industries mainly involved in the machinery industry increased year - on - year. The general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.3%; the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 3.8%; the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 10.9%; the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.9%; the instrument and meter manufacturing industry increased by 7.1%. The personal consumer loan discount policy will officially start on September 1st. This is the first time that the central government has implemented a discount policy in the field of personal consumer loans. The policy will precisely support the "part used for consumption" in consumer loans. Industry insiders expect that the discount policy will have a great impact on the industry, accelerating the expansion of institutions into various consumption scenarios and better controlling the flow of funds through direct cooperation with merchants. [2]