度K线关注7250附近支撑与7400附近压力。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7334 | -17 期货收盘价(1月交割连续):线型低密度聚 | 7334 | -17 -14 | | | 期货收盘价(5月交割连续):线型低密度聚 | | 乙烯(日,元/吨) | | | | | | 7312 | -34 期货收盘价(9月交割连续):线型低密度聚 | 7292 | | | | 乙烯(日,元/吨) 成交量(日,手) | 210479 | 乙烯(日,元/吨) 25100 持仓量(日,手) | 341910 | 23095 | | | 9-1价差 | -42 | 3 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 311034 | -2093 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 334808 | -1736 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -23774 | -357 | | 现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The domestic agricultural demand for urea is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. The compound fertilizer industrial demand makes appropriate low - price purchases during the autumn fertilizer production stage, but the increase in the compound fertilizer enterprise's operating rate is slow, resulting in limited rigid demand for urea. The domestic demand progresses slowly, and the downstream factories mainly make small - quantity low - price purchases. Although some export - oriented enterprises can balance production and sales, some enterprises are affected by the weakening domestic demand. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continues to increase, and it is expected to keep rising in the short term. The short - term trading range for the UR2601 contract is recommended to be between 1740 - 1800 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1754 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17; the 9 - 1 spread is - 23 yuan/ton, down 7 week - on - week. The main contract's open interest is 183,795 lots, an increase of 1,188; the net position of the top 20 is - 24,127, a decrease of 2,210. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573, unchanged week - on - week [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1730 yuan/ton, down 10; in Henan it is 1720 yuan/ton, down 20; in Jiangsu it is 1710 yuan/ton, down 20; in Shandong it is 1730 yuan/ton, up 30; in Anhui it is 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in the Baltic is 450 US dollars/ton, down 5; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 450 US dollars/ton, down 10. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, up 13 [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 95.74 tons, an increase of 6.98 tons week - on - week. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24%; the daily urea output is 192,700 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, an increase of 50 tons; the monthly urea output is 6,052,080 tons, an increase of 20,740 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98%; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 422.12 tons, an increase of 5.3 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.74 tons, an increase of 6.98 tons week - on - week, a 7.86% increase. As of August 14, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 46.4 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons week - on - week, a 3.93% decrease. As of August 14, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 134.86 tons, an increase of 2.01 tons week - on - week, a 1.51% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, up 1.24%, with the trend turning from decline to increase. Recently, some plants have restarted, and the domestic daily urea output has increased slightly. This week, 1 - 2 enterprises are planned to stop production, and 3 - 5 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output increase is high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase due to the potential复产 of some bases of three leading domestic enterprises and the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year. If the resumption of production speeds up or new capacity is released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2]. - The short - term demand for polysilicon is weak. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installation in 2025 is expected to be about 580GW and the domestic demand is about 130000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the price increase of polysilicon [2]. - The downstream photovoltaic enterprise's start - up rate is difficult to improve. With the increase in supply and the weakening of demand, the polysilicon market is expected to continue to adjust next week. The price is supported by cost and policy, but the upside space is limited by downstream acceptance, and it is likely to show a volatile trend [2]. - The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, but the supply is also decreasing, and the overall situation remains volatile [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 52280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan compared with the previous period; the main contract position is 135517 lots, a decrease of 3206 lots [2]. - The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2290 yuan, an increase of 155 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 43675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is - 5740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2310 yuan [2]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons [2]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1113 tons, an increase of 320 tons [2]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67386000 kilowatts, a decrease of 3183000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W [2]. - The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 889758600 units, a decrease of 144241200 units; the monthly import volume is 110959000 units, a decrease of 10025900 units; the monthly average import price is 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars [2]. - The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The relevant unit has decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guidelines for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliant Production Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region" after the expiration of the publicity period without receiving any objections [2]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable rise in prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The multi - empty game in the precious metals market has intensified. If subsequent negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may further relieve the callback pressure on gold prices. If the results are below expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying [2]. - The Fed's independence is continuously hindered. Considering Trump's fiscal stimulus plan and the risk of inflation rebounding, the feasibility of a rate cut exceeding 25bps is low. The subsequent PCE data may become the indicator for the Fed's rate cut [2]. - In the long - term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's rate - cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline in the US dollar's credit still provide strong support for gold prices. In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for gold in the short - term and try to go long on silver at low prices with a light position. Pay attention to risk control. The focus range for the SHFE AU2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE AG2510 contract is 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract is 777.66 yuan/gram, up 1.86 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract is 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 54 yuan [2]. - The position of the gold main contract is 194,004 lots, down 3,651 lots; the position of the silver main contract is 350,742 lots, up 4,614 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the gold main contract is 164,475 lots, up 2,060 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the silver main contract is 116,454 lots, down 313 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,345 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,138,426 kilograms, down 3,129 kilograms [2]. - The SMM gold spot price is 773.4 yuan/gram, up 1 yuan; the SMM silver spot price is 9213 yuan/kilogram, up 44 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE gold main contract is - 4.26 yuan/gram, down 0.86 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract is - 45 yuan/kilogram, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 965.36 tons, up 4.01 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15,071.31 tons, unchanged [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 229,485 contracts, down 7,565 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 44,268 contracts, down 6,390 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.17%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11%, up 0.1% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump plans to announce additional tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors in the next two weeks, with semiconductor tariffs possibly far exceeding the previously mentioned 100% [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is hesitant about rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and tariff uncertainties. Milan, nominated by Trump as a Fed governor, said inflation is "under control" [2]. - Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on August 18. If successful, a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 84.6%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.5% [2]. 3.6 Market Situation - The main contracts of gold and silver in the Shanghai market fluctuated upward during the session. The prices of gold and silver in London maintained a narrow - range oscillation, slightly recovering from last Friday's decline [2]. - The results of the US - Russia weekend negotiations were generally optimistic. Although no substantial results were achieved, the positive statements after the meeting provided room for further negotiations and potential cease - fire. The market's risk - aversion sentiment quickly cooled, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Silver prices remained relatively strong due to their industrial attributes [2]. - The stronger - than - expected US wholesale and retail data further reduced the probability of a rate cut after the PPI data. If Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23 is "balanced", the downward space for interest rates may be limited [2]. - The interest rate futures show that the rate - cut expectation has dropped from the previous high of 98% to the current 84.6%. However, the market still expects the Fed to start the rate - cut window in September, which provides support for gold prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bullish, but in the domestic market, high oil - mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation suppress prices. However, uncertainties in fourth - quarter purchases, low near - month rapeseed arrivals, and peak aquaculture season support the market. Although soybean meal substitution weakens demand expectations, the market still maintains a bullish outlook despite increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, in the international market, supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia provide upward momentum. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil - mill operating rates reduce output pressure, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. The market is still recommended to be participated in with a bullish approach despite increased volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9826 yuan/ton (up 69 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2590 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) is 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.3 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed (active contract) is 4966 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan) [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 146 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 86 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan) [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions are 290,638 lots (down 5,858 lots), rapeseed meal main - contract positions are 434,330 lots (down 14,280 lots). Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long positions are 2,808 lots (up 5,092 lots), rapeseed meal's top 20 net long positions are - 5,037 lots (up 12,433 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil has 3,487 receipts (unchanged), rapeseed meal has 9,821 receipts (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9900 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8830 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9570 yuan/ton (up 270 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Averages and others: Average rapeseed oil price is 9965 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), import cost of rapeseed is 8306.78 yuan/ton (up 178.07 yuan), oil - meal ratio is 3.72 (down 0.06), rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 143 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 60 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot spread is 1120 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), rapeseed oil - palm oil spot spread is 600 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread is 420 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume is 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons (up 5 tons), import rapeseed weekly operating rate is 11.94% (down 4.9%), and import rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 11 tons (up 0.35 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons (down 0.65 tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.92 tons (down 0.58 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons (up 0.68 tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5.5 tons (down 0.2 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21 tons (down 1.5 tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 3.47 tons (up 1.77 tons), and rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 2.72 tons (down 0.15 tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons (up 175.6 tons), and edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.22% (down 14.17%), put option implied volatility is 27.39% (down 1.71%), 20 - day historical volatility is 31.16% (up 6.81%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 21.29% (up 2.19%). Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.52% (down 0.48%), put option implied volatility is 13.5% (down 0.53%), 20 - day historical volatility is 18.14% (up 0.46%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 14.58% (up 0.12%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed higher on August 15, with the most actively traded November contract up 6.40 Canadian dollars to 660.90 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract up 5.70 Canadian dollars to 672.70 Canadian dollars/ton. The market has stabilized after a sharp decline earlier in the week [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is estimated at 80.1 million acres (down from 82.5 million acres in July), yield is 53.6 bushels/acre (higher than expected and July's estimate), production is estimated at 4.292 billion bushels (down from 4.335 billion bushels in July), and ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels (down 20 million bushels, the lowest in three years) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure. The transactions are priced according to quality, and the overall shipment speed has slowed down. The supply of paper - bag Gala apples in the western producing areas is increasing, with high - quality fruits commanding high prices. Overall, the low spot inventory strongly supports prices, but the increasing listing volume of Gala apples may restrain the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - maturing apples [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 42 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 82,432 hands, a decrease of 6,998 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4,008 hands, an increase of 841 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remain unchanged. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, and the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 46.01 million tons, a decrease of 7.38 million tons. The capacity ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage is 8%, a decrease of 1%. The capacity ratio of Shaanxi apple cold - storage is 2%, a decrease of 0.47%. The monthly apple export volume is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export value is 4,330.8 million US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.11 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The morning average daily arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets has decreased [2] 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 18.59%, a decrease of 0.34% [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the supply of Gala apples in the western producing areas increased, with high - quality fruits commanding high prices. The trading of stored Fuji apples in Shandong was dull, with farmers and cold - storage operators offering discounts. The early - maturing Luli and Jinduhong apples were priced according to quality, and the shipment was okay. The Apple 2510 contract rose 0.44% on Monday [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The estimated national apple production for the new season is 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 13, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 46.01 million tons, a decrease of 7.58 million tons from the previous week. The shipment speed slowed slightly. The capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased, with Shandong's de - stocking improving slightly, Shaanxi's shipment slowing, and Gansu's shipment almost finished [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current egg supply is abundant due to high laying - hen inventory and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs, while the terminal demand is weak. The spot market price has been lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a continuous loss state. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. On the futures side, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3113 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 69 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 36492 lots, a decrease of 2952 lots. The monthly spread between the 1 - 5 contracts is 24 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 61 yuan. The trading volume of the active contract is 381680 lots, an increase of 65988 lots. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 0 lots, a decrease of 3 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.2 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.13 yuan. The basis (spot - futures) is 86 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 202 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 113.18 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.27. The national culled laying - hen index is 99.2 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.89. The average price of day - old chicks in the main production areas is 3.6 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.25 yuan. The national new - chick index is 78.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 2.33. The average price of compound feed for laying hens is 2.76 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.26 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.05 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 10.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan. The average age of culled hens in the country is 512 days, an increase of 11 days [2]. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.2 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.77 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.51 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7605 tons, an increase of 76 tons [2]. Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas has increased. Currently, the laying - hen inventory is at a high level, the pressure of newly - opened laying hens is large, the egg supply is sufficient, and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs has further increased the supply pressure [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand is gradually rising, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,981 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [2] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,535 lots, down 5,792 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,093 lots, up 672 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 62,225 tons, up 441 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 261,100 tons, down 575 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.24 US dollars/ton, down 2.37 US dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,104 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged [2] - The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, down 2.4%; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [2] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,112.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,988.81 points, up 63.07 points; the monthly automobile output is 2,808,600, up 166,600 [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,647,000, up 73,000 [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump and Putin's meeting was considered constructive, and there is a high possibility of reaching an agreement on important aspects; the next meeting may be in Moscow [2] - Trump said progress has been made on the Russian issue and suggested Zelensky reach an agreement; the US envoy said Putin agreed to Ukraine's "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee [2] - Zelensky will meet with Trump in Washington; European leaders will participate in the "Trump - Zelensky meeting"; sanctions against Russia will continue to be strengthened [2] - Trump will determine steel and chip tariffs in the next two weeks, and semiconductor tariffs may reach 300%; the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports will be expanded [2] 3.7 View Summary - The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply side is tight [2] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in lead - acid batteries. Approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [2] - The inventory has declined slightly recently, and there is a possibility of demand improvement. The overall demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price [2]

| | | ，开始进行少量采买补库，但整体市场成交还是比较差。现货升水小降至300元/吨，国内库存小增。技术 面，持仓下降多空谨慎。操作上，建议暂时观望，关注26.5关口支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 267020 | 200 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -270 | 40 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33610 | 175 主力合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries remains flat. The bottom cost support for industrial silicon is evident, but the inventory pressure at the top persists. If the price later drops below 8,000 yuan, it is advisable to consider mid - to long - term bargain - hunting for long positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,605 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the main contract position is 276,272 lots, down 2,763 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 85,566 lots, down 812 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,599 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 15 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 795 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,300 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The notice on the work guidelines for the consultation mechanism for the identification of compliant production capacity of industrial silicon in the autonomous region is repealed. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. In the industrial silicon supply side, the power price advantage in the southwest region is more prominent during the wet season, accelerating the resumption of production in silicon plants. In Xinjiang, large factories maintain stable production, while small and medium - sized factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production [2]