| | 11/20 3:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/20 待定 美国劳工部统计局：11月20日发布9月非农就业报告 | 国债期货日报 2025/11/17 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 108.485 0.09% T主力成交量 62429 | -1180↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 105.905 0.05% TF主力成交量 48783 | -3751↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 32335 | -3243↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 116.450 0.33% TL主力成交量 88270 | 7491↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 0.23 +0.00↑ T12-TL12价差 -7.97 | -0.22↓ | | | T2512-2603价差 0.25 +0.02↑ TF12-T12价差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, leading to a decrease in raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has been restored, and stainless - steel mills are expected to increase production, resulting in increased supply pressure. - The demand in the off - peak season is weak, with low market purchasing willingness and general inquiry and transaction performance. The national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase. - Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in price, the bearish sentiment is strong, and the price is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,415 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spread between the 12 - 01 contracts is - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,376 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 983 lots; the position of the main contract is 172,728 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4,992 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 69,289 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. - The basis of the SS main contract is 455 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 118,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 900 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 591,200 tons, with an increase of 20,400 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, with an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, with a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies and measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The Ministry of Finance will effectively implement a proactive fiscal policy, adhere to expanding domestic demand, and support the construction of a strong domestic market. - China released its October economic data, showing that the growth rates of industry, social consumer goods retail, investment, and real - estate sales were all lower than the previous values to varying degrees. - The schedule for important US data has been determined: the September non - farm payrolls will be released on November 20th, and the PCE, the Fed's preferred indicator, will be released on November 26th. There is a split within the Fed regarding inflation and interest - rate policies [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share three - quarterly reports performed well, providing bottom support for the market. However, multiple economic indicators in October showed weakness, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy and putting pressure on the stock market. After the disclosure of the A - share three - quarterly reports and with no major domestic meetings this month, and after the release of macro - economic data, the market will enter a vacuum period of macro - data, performance, and policies. In the absence of clear trading guidance, the market is expected to move randomly, and stock index futures will remain volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4581.4, down 41.0; the IH main contract (2512) was at 3009.2, down 34.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: Most spreads increased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread which was 1581.8, up 1.8; the IC - IF monthly contract spread was 2620.0, up 26.0 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Some spreads decreased, like the IF seasonal - monthly spread was - 43.4, down 1.8; some increased, such as the IH seasonal - monthly spread which was - 6.6, up 1.6 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 23,624.00, down 1014.0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was at 4598.05, down 30.1; the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 3012.1, down 26.4; the CSI 500 was at 7235.4, down 0.1; the CSI 1000 was at 7523.1, up 20.3 [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 16.6, up 11.1 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: A - share trading volume was 19,303.21 billion yuan, down 500.61 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 24,927.04 billion yuan, down 138.30 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume was 2098.22 billion yuan, down 155.99 billion yuan; the repurchase balance was - 1199.0 billion yuan, up 10830.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 47.43%, up 11.44%; the Shibor was 1.508%, up 0.145% [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Wind Market Analysis**: The overall A - share score was 4.70, up 1.00; the technical analysis score was 4.70, up 1.20; the capital analysis score was 4.60, up 0.70 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Social consumer goods retail sales in October were 46291 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October, it was 412169 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. From January to October, national fixed - asset investment was 408914 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 9.6% year - on - year. In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43 [2]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of October, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first 10 months was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; the M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On November 20 at 9:00, China's 1 - year and 5 - year LPR will be released. On November 20 at 21:30, the US September non - farm payrolls data, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate will be released [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed up 6.73%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1357.67, down 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% month - on - month decline, falling again. The manufacturing PMI data in China in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9, with export growth turning from an increase to a decrease, indicating that the recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipping companies are more active in price support than before, and cooperate with blank sailings to adjust capacity, promoting a rebound in freight rates. The geopolitical situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, is in a very delicate and unstable stage, delaying the expectation of the resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. The better - than - expected German economy has boosted market confidence and stimulated the economic recovery in the eurozone. If the proposed fiscal expansion policy of the new German government has clearer details, it will enhance investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more sharply. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1726.00, up 108.8; EC second - main contract closing price: 1187.7, up 24.6. - EC2602 - EC2605 spread: 538.30, up 91.00; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 322.10, up 95.00. - EC contract basis: - 368.33, down 268.13. - EC main contract open interest: 38880, up 837 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1238.42, down 91.29. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1403.64, up 36.79. - Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2125.00, down 48.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1897.00, unchanged. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 17564.00, unchanged; average charter price (Cape - size ship): 26315.00, up 2265.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer will visit Europe from November 19th to 22nd for more trade negotiations. Greer said that the tariffs imposed by the EU on US export products are still too high. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has reminded Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan recently, and the Ministry of Education has issued a study - abroad warning. - The European Council announced that EU finance ministers agreed to abolish the rule that allows goods worth less than 150 euros to enter the EU duty - free. - South Korea and the US reached an agreement on tariffs and defense issues and signed a memorandum of understanding on a $350 billion investment project by South Korea in the US. For South Korean products exported to the US with a tax rate of 15% or more, the US will no longer impose "additional tariffs", and products with a tax rate lower than 15% will be raised to 15%. The US will also reduce the tariffs on South Korean cars, auto parts, wood, sawn timber and wood products to 15% [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - November 18th, 22:15: US industrial production monthly rate for October. - November 18th, 23:00: US NAHB housing market index for November. - November 18th, 23:00: US factory orders monthly rate for August [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the PVC market has significant domestic supply - demand contradictions. With high inventory pressure likely to persist, short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4500 - 4630 yuan/ton. The decrease in raw material prices has led to a decline in production costs, but due to weak spot prices, losses in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods have deepened. As the temperature drops, downstream demand in infrastructure and real estate is expected to weaken seasonally, and overseas demand remains uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; trading volume was 800,764 lots, a decrease of 175,156 lots; open interest was 1,355,541 lots, an increase of 7,172 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 219,361 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4548.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.62 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2681.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 416.993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96% [3]. - As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary of Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily on November 17, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side continues to exert pressure, but the domestic demand shows marginal improvement. The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price: 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price: 19,740 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 84,319 lots, up 7,104 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: 102 lots, up 313 lots [2]. - Cotton main - contract open interest: 571,342 lots, up 14,902 lots; cotton yarn main - contract open interest: 22,211 lots, down 1,293 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 4,396 lots, down 5 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 28 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn): 20,540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,913 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff): 13,920 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn arrival price): 21,078 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed 32 - count yarn arrival price): 22,424 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,739 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - Cotton import volume: 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 886 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; grey fabric inventory days: 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2]. - Cloth output: 2.8 billion meters, up 0.1 billion meters; yarn output: 2.074 million tons, up 46,000 tons [2]. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 124,532,470,000 US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products: 119,665,160,000 US dollars, down 426,685.77 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on cotton: 15.18%, up 4.51%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on cotton: 15.17%, up 4.51% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.71%, up 0.14%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.24%, down 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The 2025/26 US cotton November supply - demand outlook shows that compared with September, production, exports, and ending inventory have increased, while consumption and imports remain unchanged. US production forecast is nearly 900,000 bales higher, reaching 14.1 million bales, with the national average yield forecast up nearly 7%. Exports are forecast to increase by 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales, and ending inventory increases by nearly 20% to 4.3 million bales, with a stock - to - use ratio of 30.9% [2]. 3.8 Market Analysis - Domestic market: On the supply side, new cotton acquisition and processing progress is fast, and acquisition is nearly finished. The cotton acquisition price has risen, providing cost support. However, with the issuance of import quotas and faster shipment of high - grade new Brazilian cotton, the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. The port inventory has reached a four - month high, with more arrivals and limited shipments. On the demand side, China's textile and apparel exports in October showed a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, with clothing exports falling more significantly than textiles. But domestic retail demand shows marginal improvement, and later orders should be monitored [2].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the lithium carbonate industry dated November 17, 2025, providing data on various aspects of the lithium carbonate market and related industries, along with market analysis and operation suggestions [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The demand growth rate and expectations are good, driving the continuous decline of industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct light - position, range - bound and bullish trading while controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 95,200 yuan/ton, up 7,840 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 193,284 lots, down 2,348 lots; the position of the main contract is 562,954 lots, up 46,176 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 360 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 26,953 lots/ton, down 217 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 86,150 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 9,050 yuan/ton, down 6,840 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 999 US dollars/ton, up 47 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 9,825 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,471 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 160,000 yuan/ton, up 8,500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 165,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 37,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 64%, up 5%; the monthly production volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 45.33%, up 9.45%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.2%, up 6.4%; the total call option position is 178,261 lots, up 10,652 lots; the total put option position is 138,513 lots, up 5,006 lots; the total position put - call ratio is 77.7%, down 1.9515%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.34%, down 0.0043% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year; the total retail sales of consumer goods was 462.91 billion yuan, up 2.9% year - on - year [2] - As of the end of September, China's new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 100 million kilowatts, more than 30 times that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan, accounting for more than 40% of the world's total installed capacity, ranking first in the world. Some power supply and power enterprises' energy storage system orders are scheduled until next year [2] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman Li Liangbin predicts that in 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate will increase by 30% to 1.9 million tons, and the supply capacity is estimated to increase by about 250,000 tons, with basic balance between supply and demand. If the demand growth rate exceeds 30% next year, even reaches 40%, the supply cannot be balanced in the short term, and the price may exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [2] - Zhongqi Xineng's Huang Ling said that the installed capacity of solid - liquid hybrid batteries will climb to 100,000 units next year. The energy density of liquid batteries has reached the ceiling of 300 Wh/kg, but there are still challenges for all - solid - state batteries with an energy density of > 400 Wh/kg to achieve large - scale mass production, and the next 3 - 5 years is the critical window period for the commercialization of solid - liquid hybrid batteries [2] - The lithium - battery industry chain has seen a wave of price increases. The price of vinylene carbonate, an electrolyte additive, has skyrocketed. On November 12, the average price increased by 68% to 110,000 yuan/ton, and the spot transaction price reached 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton. The main reasons are strong downstream demand, tight supply, and the shutdown and maintenance of a large manufacturer [2] 3.8 View Summary - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The demand growth rate and expectations are good, driving the continuous decline of industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended to conduct light - position, range - bound and bullish trading while controlling risks [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The off - tree progress in main production areas in Xinjiang such as Alar and Aksu is around 60 - 80%. Affected by the decline in spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has weakened. Considering the increase in supply, the jujube price may still run weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - season acquisition progress in the production areas [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujube is 9,270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract position is 142,780 lots, down 399 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,665 lots, up 3,996 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2] 2. Spot Market - The prices of Kashgar jujube bulk goods, Hebei first - grade gray jujube, Alar jujube bulk goods, Aksu jujube bulk goods, Henan first - grade gray jujube, Henan jujube premium grade, Hebei jujube premium grade, Guangdong jujube premium grade, and Guangdong jujube first - grade are 7.15 yuan/kg (down 0.2 yuan), 4.45 yuan/jin (unchanged), 6.25 yuan/kg (unchanged), 6.05 yuan/kg (unchanged), 4.5 yuan/jin (unchanged), 10 yuan/kg (unchanged), 9.79 yuan/kg (up 0.01 yuan), 11.3 yuan/kg (down 0.2 yuan), and 10.2 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan) respectively [2] 3. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, up 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, down 41,000 hectares [2] 4. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,840 tons this week, up 299 tons from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 3.31% and a year - on - year increase of 141.47%. The monthly jujube export volume is 2,283,671 kg, down 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 23,548,402 kg, up 2,283,671 kg [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's jujubes is - 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative quarterly year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, down 34.59 percentage points [2] 6. Industry News - In Hebei Cuierzhuang Market, 10 trucks of jujubes arrived. The purchase enthusiasm of downstream customers is average, and the price of new - season finished products continues to decline. In Guangdong Ruyifang Market, 6 trucks of jujubes arrived, the price is weakly stable, and the purchase enthusiasm of downstream customers is not high [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - As of November 13, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 764240 tons, 90540 tons lower than the same period last year. The current inventory level does not represent the peak. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term due to factors such as the market entering the off - season and the increase in citrus sales squeezing the apple sales space [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9438 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 139413 lots, a decrease of 13351 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures was 8309 lots, a decrease of 1191 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in different regions remained stable, with prices in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia at 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.5 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple production was 5128510 tons, the weekly apple wholesale price was 9.49 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.12 yuan/kg. The total cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide was 764240 tons, the capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.51, and in Shaanxi was 0.03. The monthly apple export volume was 70000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The month - on - month growth rate of apple export amount was - 8.5%, and the import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1837980 dollars, with an increase of 248684.5 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons were 6.66 yuan/kg, 5.39 yuan/kg, and 5.36 yuan/kg respectively. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets was 12.2, 16, and 23.8 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for apples was 23.42% and 2.11% respectively [2] Industry News - The trading of stored Fuji apples in the western producing areas was generally stable, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was average. In the Shandong producing area, the quantity of out - of - storage goods decreased, and the quality was uneven. The new - season late - maturing Fuji apple warehousing work was nearing completion [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Monday, the I2601 contract rose. Macroscopically, many places in Henan and Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy - pollution weather. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise; the utilization rate of steel mill blast furnace capacity and pig iron output stopped falling and rebounded, strengthening demand support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may remain oscillating and relatively strong, and risk control should be emphasized [2]. 3. Detailed Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 788.50 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 481,401 lots, up 1,021 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 21,825 lots, up 2,935 lots. The spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts is 32 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I is 900 lots, with no change. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.35 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.76 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 858 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 850 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 62 yuan, down 14 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 103.60 US dollars/ton, with no change. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.13, down 0.01. The estimated import cost is 844 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,516.40 million tons, up 447.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,369.90 million tons, down 399.40 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 15,812.84 million tons, up 188.71 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,076.01 million tons, up 66.07 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,130.90 million tons, down 502.10 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 23 days, with no change. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 40.43 million tons, up 0.44 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.74%, up 0.78%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.52 million tons, down 2.31 million tons. The BDI index is 2,125.00, up 48.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.51 US dollars/ton, up 0.73 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.295 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 82.79%, down 0.36%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 88.82%, up 1.03%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.92%, up 1.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.81%, up 0.78%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 26.01%, up 11.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 18.65%, up 2.56% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From November 10th to November 16th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,516.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 447.4 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,908.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 360.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 2,050.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239.6 million tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,873.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 339.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 858.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 120.5 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,369.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,268.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,041.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484.5 million tons [2].