1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure in the market still exists as the slaughter resumes to rise after a brief price - holding by the breeding side, and the scale of secondary fattening is limited. However, the current price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later hoarding. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has improved. The slaughterhouse's operating rate has moderately increased. It is expected that the demand will significantly improve with the start of school in late August and the subsequent Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. Overall, the slaughter pressure in August is high, and the spot price is weakly adjusted. The long - term supply pressure expectation is decreasing marginally, and the demand improvement expectation due to the upcoming start of school is expected to limit the decline space of the hog futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for now, focusing on the slaughter and secondary fattening situation [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 13,820 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 71,193 lots, up 6,351 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 430 lots, unchanged; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,718 lots, up 265 lots. The hog 2511 contract closed down 0.65% on Monday [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The hog price in Henan Zhumadian is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main hog basis is - 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads. The CPI's year - on - year change is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the corn spot price is 2,393.92 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 917.93, down 6.14. The monthly feed output is 29,377,000 tons, up 1,756,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 157.05 yuan/head, down 22.91 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 28.85 yuan/head, down 16.28 yuan. The monthly pork import volume is 90,000 tons, unchanged. The weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, down 2100,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 1.294 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's pork import volume in July was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the pork import volume was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. On August 18, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 274,282 heads, a 1.69% increase from the previous period [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 89,240.00 | +2340.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -163,758.00 | -33924.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 421,106.00 | +19967.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 340.00 | +12160.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 23,485.00 | +1546.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 84,600.00 | +1900.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 82,300.00 | +1900.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -4,640.00 | -440.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 911.00 | +27.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply, stable demand, with loose spot supplies and potentially accumulating inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply and weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten aluminum ratio. It is advisable to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all declined; the three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum also decreased [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends of increase or decrease [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased, that of alumina increased, and that of cast aluminum alloy decreased [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventory, LME aluminum cancelled warrants, and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the previous trading day all decreased; the total inventory of alumina and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, Yangtze Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum, alumina spot price, and average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the basis of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production, import, and export of alumina all increased; the demand decreased, and the supply - demand balance increased [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The import and export of aluminum scrap decreased; the average prices in Foshan and Shandong remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, the import and export decreased, the production capacity utilization rate and the start - up rate increased [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products increased, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The production of automobiles decreased in July 2025 compared with the previous period; the national real estate prosperity index declined [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, while the built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum showed different trends; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum increased slightly, and the call - put ratio decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's economic data in July showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size and social consumer goods retail sales increased year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased [2]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable rise in prices [2]. - The Trump administration in the United States expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [2]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [2].

沪铜产业日报 2025/8/18 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,950.00 | -110.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,743.00 | -30.50↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | -10.00↓ 主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, leading to a loose global supply expectation. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement, causing the raw sugar price to fluctuate widely at a short - term low. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the demand for cold drinks is in the peak season, and the double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not large due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, but the increase in the number of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The new sugar - pressing season's output is expected to remain at the highest level in the past four years. Overall, the low - level fluctuation of the outer market affects the domestic market to fluctuate repeatedly. Fundamentally, the import is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the customs import data in July. The supply in the new sugar - pressing season is expected to be stable with a slight increase. Although short - term double - festival stocking provides support, it will still face pressure in the future. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short. Future factors to watch include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. The international raw sugar price fluctuated widely at a low level, and the domestic market was affected by it. The import pressure was released, and the supply would increase temporarily in September. The demand was expected to increase, and the de - stocking process slowed down [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short [8]. - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.05%. As of August 5, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.90% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.22% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 23.85% month - on - month. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 29,055 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 17,104 [10][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.36 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. As of August 15, the price of Guangxi Liuzhou sugar was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Yunnan Kunming sugar was 5,860 yuan per ton. As of August 13, 2025, the out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar was 5,786 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Thai sugar was 5,901 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the in - quota price was 4,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of August 13, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,324 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.84%; the out - of - quota profit was 90 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 164.71%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,236 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%; the out - quota profit was - 25 yuan per ton [13][26][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had ended, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons and a growth rate of 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [36][40][44]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the cumulative sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%; the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of white sugar this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [54]. - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the pace of economic recovery slowed, with marginal weakening on both the supply and demand sides. New policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. The bond market currently lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - This week, the Treasury bond futures contracts of all maturities declined. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest of the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased [12][29] 2. News Review and Analysis - Policy: The three - department jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the nine - department including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities" [7] - Domestic economic data: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.63% year - on - year. The unemployment rate remained the same year - on - year. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase in the reduction of 310 billion yuan; the social financing increment in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 389.3 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July was 5.6%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [8] - Overseas economic data: In the US, the CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%. The PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. The number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The US continued to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [9] - Exchange rate: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week [9] - Capital situation: This week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [9] 3. Chart Analysis - Spread changes: The yield spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year bonds and that between the 10 - year and 1 - year bonds slightly widened. The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts and that between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 30 - year contract slightly widened. The inter - period spread of the 2 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 5 - year contract narrowed [42][46][50] - Treasury bond futures main contract position changes: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract slightly increased [63] - Interest rate changes: The Shibor rates of overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month terms all increased. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48%. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 1 - 5bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by about 5bp and 6bp to 1.74% and 1.99% respectively. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed, and that of 30 - year Treasury bonds slightly narrowed [67][71] - Central bank open - market operations: This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases totaled 711.8 billion yuan, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [74] - Bond issuance and maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 1.75934 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.559795 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 201.345 billion yuan [77] - Market sentiment: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond strengthened slightly, and the VIX index decreased slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [82][87][90] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestically, the economic recovery in July slowed down, but new policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. Overseas, the sharp rise in the US PPI in July has frustrated the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Currently, the bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [7] - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of methanol enterprises in the inland area remains low, while the port inventory continues to accumulate. Next week, the port inventory is expected to continue increasing, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2390 and 2460 in the short term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market was slightly weak this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2330 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2090 - 2125 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2325 - 2360 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol production in China increased slightly. The inland supply was tight, and enterprise inventory remained low. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of relevant plants [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.55% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of August 15, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 96 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the content - Warehouse receipt: As of August 14, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11168, an increase of 2480 from last week [22] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 15, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 14, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 266 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.5 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal price: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41] - Natural gas price: As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of August 14, China's methanol production was 1863275 tons, an increase of 18050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% [44] - Inventory: As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 102.18 million tons, an increase of 9.63 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 29.56 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 million tons, a decrease of 2.14 million tons from the previous period [49] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 122.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 537.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 14, the methanol import profit was 42.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54 yuan/ton from last week [52] Downstream - Operating rate: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [55] - Profit: As of August 15, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton from last week [58] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up over 5%. The four stock index futures also increased collectively, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. In terms of gains, IM > IC > IF > IH. The market trading activity increased significantly compared with last week, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeding two trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days, and the trading amount of northbound funds exceeding one trillion yuan for four consecutive weeks. Although some economic data weakened in July, it did not have much negative impact on the market. The market is currently focused on the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the medium and long term [8][104] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 3.09% this week, IH2509 rose 2.19%, IC2509 rose 4.88%, and IM2509 rose 5.21%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 2.37%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.57%, the China Securities 500 Index rose 3.88%, and the China Securities 1000 Index rose 4.09% [11] 2. News Overview - CPI: In July, the CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline of 0.1% last month, and was flat year-on-year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. - PPI: In July, the PPI fell 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and fell 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month. - Social financing scale: In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased 9%. - Fixed asset investment: From January to July 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28822.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased 1.5% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 0.63% in July. From January to July, national real estate development investment was 5358 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. - Social consumer goods retail: In July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 3878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; from January to July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 28423.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. - Industrial added value: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year-on-year in real terms. From a month-on-month perspective, in July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 0.38% from the previous month. From January to July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 6.3% year-on-year [14] 3. Weekly Market Data - Domestic major indices: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.55%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 5.53%, the SME 100 Index rose 3.11%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.58%. - Overseas major indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 rose 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.90%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.65%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 3.73%. - Industry sector performance: Most industry sectors rose, with the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors rising significantly, and the banking sector weakening significantly. - Industry sector main fund flow: The main funds in the industry were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in the machinery equipment, national defense and military industry, and non-ferrous metals sectors. - SHIBOR short-term interest rate: The SHIBOR short-term interest rate was stable, and the capital price was low. - Restricted share lifting and northbound capital: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 6.239 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 233.12 billion yuan. The total trading volume of northbound funds was 1026.01 billion yuan. - Basis and net positions: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all converged [18][19][23] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Market outlook: Although some economic data weakened in July, it did not have much negative impact on the market. The market is currently focused on the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the drag on the index performance caused by the profit decline of companies that have not released their financial reports. At the same time, in the case of high valuations in the US stock market, A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the medium and long term [104]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September interest rate cut window is still the current market's baseline scenario, providing some support for gold prices. The expected US-Russia negotiations have intensified the long-short game in the precious metals market. If the negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may relieve the downward pressure on gold prices; otherwise, the safe-haven demand may drive up gold prices. The feasibility of an interest rate cut greater than 25bps is low and risky. The subsequent PCE and inflation data may become the indicators for the Fed's interest rate cut. In the medium to long term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline of the US dollar's credit still support gold prices. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the potential risks of unexpected outcomes in the US - Russia negotiations, and maintain a long - term strategy of buying on dips. The suggested trading ranges for next week are: 750 - 800 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract, 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract, 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce for the London gold price, and 37.5 - 38.5 US dollars/ounce for the London silver price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, US macro - data fluctuated significantly. Gold prices faced continuous resistance in rising, while silver prices remained relatively firm due to interest rate cut expectations. The July US CPI data strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September. The PPI index released on Thursday showed an unexpected rebound in producer inflation, which may lead to higher consumer inflation in the future, causing the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September to decline marginally and gold prices to be trapped in a range - bound oscillation [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's September interest rate cut window is the baseline scenario, providing support for gold prices. The US - Russia negotiations will intensify the long - short game. The call for an emergency interest rate cut by the US Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus plan, along with the risk of inflation rebound, make a large - scale interest rate cut less likely. The subsequent PCE data may be affected by the PPI rebound, which could hinder the interest rate cut expectations. In the medium to long term, gold prices are supported by multiple factors, and in the short term, they will fluctuate within a range [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, COMEX silver was at $38.05 per ounce, down 1.19% month - on - month; the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract was at 9204 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3389.4 per ounce, down 1.99% month - on - month; the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract was at 775.80 yuan/gram, down 1.52% month - on - month [13]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 14, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 964.22 tons, while the net holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained basically unchanged at 15100 tons [18]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's total positions increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 449647 contracts, and net positions increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 237050 contracts. COMEX silver's total positions decreased by 5.32% month - on - month to 161262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 14.73% month - on - month to 50658 contracts [23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions increased by 3.90% month - on - month to 292194 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 55144 contracts [28]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.6 yuan/gram, up 20.53% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 12 yuan/kilogram, down 58.62% month - on - month [31]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 38622416.43 ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 36045 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory remained basically unchanged at 506441781 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased by 2.20% month - on - month to 1158387 kilograms [38]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly by 0.14% month - on - month to 273364.75 kilograms, and silver ore imports dropped significantly by 7.51% month - on - month to 126019303.00 kilograms. Due to the surge in silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise, with the monthly production reaching 4506000.00 pieces in June 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate at 15.80% [40][46]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [52][56]. - **Gold Industry**: As of August 14, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 773 yuan/gram, down 0.96% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou gold decreased by 0.79%, 1.18%, and 0.70% week - on - week respectively [62]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The slowdown in central bank gold purchases and the high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [64]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The CPI data was slightly lower than expected, and the US dollar index continued to be under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility index declined, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price increased. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate rose slightly this week. In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [68][73][78][82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the corn and corn starch markets remains weak, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9][13]. - For corn, the USDA's August supply - demand report is bearish, with increased U.S. corn production and ending stocks. In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn, the upcoming listing of new - season corn, and weak market consumption have put pressure on the price [8][9]. - For corn starch, the resumption of operations by previously - overhauled enterprises has increased supply, while downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed lower this week at 2190 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report is bearish, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as corn auctions and new - season corn listing, with weak spot prices. It is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed slightly lower after narrow - range fluctuations at 2522 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of operations, and demand is weak. Inventory has increased, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 828,457 lots, an increase of 236,354 lots from last week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed lower after narrow - range fluctuations with a total position of 138,621 lots, an increase of 31,700 lots from last week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 75,073, and the net short position increased compared to last week; the top 20 net position of starch futures was - 16,392, and the net short position also increased [25]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 132,529, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [31]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active November contract and the spot average price was + 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 328 yuan/ton [36][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread Changes**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period; the 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 28 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 332 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,438.11 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 43.99 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 138 yuan/ton, widening by 21 yuan/ton compared to last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Corn Supply - Side**: As of August 8, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 748,000 tons, a decrease of 144,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 131,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 760,000 tons or 82.61%. As of August 14, the average inventory days of feed enterprises across the country was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07% [50][68][72]. - **Corn Demand - Side**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million. As of August 8, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 45.13 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 134.14 yuan per head. As of August 14, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 63 yuan/ton. As of August 15, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 607 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 186 yuan/ton [76][80][84]. - **Corn Starch Supply - Side**: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from last week; the national corn starch production was 289,200 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. As of August 13, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.33% [88][92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of August 15, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.35%, an increase of 0.67% from 9.68% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated up and down, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].