1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 12, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 1.72 million tons compared to the previous period, a 4.44% decrease, while the orders to be delivered increased by 2.43 million tons, a 10.99% increase. The total methanol port inventory increased by 5.65 million tons, with inventory accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. The overall unloading speed was good [2]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output of restored production capacity, leading to a decrease in overall production. Although some inland methanol projects resumed production last week, affected by the weak market outlook, the mid - upstream was relatively active in shipping, resulting in a decline in enterprise inventory [2]. - The Shandong Hengtong olefin plant stopped production as scheduled, causing the olefin industry's operating rate to continue to decline. There are no obvious changes in other enterprise plants in the short term, and the olefin industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 1,458,503 lots, a decrease of 39,029 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 206,193 lots, an increase of 57,487 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 11,052, a decrease of 167 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 1995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia was 1960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 234 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 319 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 266 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 85 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.34 US dollars per million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.0564 million tons, an increase of 34,900 tons, and the inventory at South China ports was 487,200 tons, a decrease of 8400 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was - 5.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 332,900 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.08%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.42%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points, the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points, the operating rate of acetic acid was 67.13%, a decrease of 2.48 percentage points, and the operating rate of MTBE was 70.25%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 89.26%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points, and the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 498 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.53%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 21.33%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.33%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Qilu Petrochemical's 360,000 - ton unit restarted, while LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Henan Lianchuang's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The start - up rate of pipes increased slightly, while that of profiles continued to decline, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly. Social inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory pressure remained high. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide, ethane, and vinyl chloride dropped, driving down the costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes. Due to the weak spot price of PVC, the losses of both processes deepened. This week, LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton unit will restart, and the impact of previously restarted units will expand, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and PVC generally maintains a high - start state. As the temperature drops, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. There is no specific implementation time for India's anti - dumping duty, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue. The price support of calcium carbide and ethylene at the cost end is limited. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,490 - 4,620 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan. The trading volume was 904,897 lots, an increase of 104,133 lots. The open interest was 1,462,731 lots, an increase of 107,190 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,060,264 lots, an increase of 63,708 lots; the short position was 1,318,874 lots, an increase of 98,864 lots; the net long position was - 258,610 lots, a decrease of 35,156 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,531.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,596.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,631.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 47,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the previous period. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the start - up rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96%. As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared with the previous week. As of November 13th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo oscillatory adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a projected shift towards net exports [3]. - Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, and the market mainly purchases on dips. Domestic inventories have decreased slightly, LME zinc inventory reduction has slowed, and the spot premium is at a high level [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions and falling prices, the bullish sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the MA60 support level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,989.5 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc positions are 210,646 lots, down 7,082 lots [3]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc are 5,696 lots, down 2,518 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, down 76,861 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 100,892 tons, up 684 tons; the LME inventory is 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons [3]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The ZN main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 104.97 dollars/ton, down 70.88 dollars [3]. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,470 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3]. - The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 161,900 tons, up 1,100 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.3%, up 0.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.3%, up 0.46% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.35%, up 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.31%, unchanged [3]. Industry News - The China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was held in Beijing, with both sides expressing willingness to strengthen cooperation and contribute to world economic growth [3]. - Trump's chief economic advisor said AI may lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be data - driven [3]. - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, while Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes cautious and slow policy implementation [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed higher on Monday, supported by the spill - over from the rising soybean market. US corn harvest is almost finished, with high phased supply pressure. The USDA report is slightly bearish. In the domestic market, cold and snowy weather in the Northeast and North China has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, reducing the available grain supply and causing a slight increase in enterprise purchase prices. Corn futures prices have strengthened recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - With the increase in the new - season corn supply, the industry operating rate has continued to rise, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. Corn starch inventory has decreased slightly week - on - week. Recently, starch has oscillated and closed higher in line with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2168 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2467 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 12 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 22 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 943129 lots, and corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 218727 lots, down 8385 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 109948 lots, and for corn starch are - 47013 lots, up 1963 lots [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn is 0 lots, and that of corn starch is 69337 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 339 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 434.75 cents/bushel. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2278.82 yuan/ton. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. - The import CIF price of corn is 2031.92 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 42 yuan, and the basis of the corn main contract is 110.82 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 500 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2494.94 yuan/ton. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 217 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively. The predicted corn yields in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports is 86.6 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 273.5 million tons, down 6 million tons. The corn inventory in northern ports is 124 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 thousand tons, down 2.02 thousand tons. The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons [2]. - The sample feed corn inventory days are 25.61 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.65 million tons. The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48%, up 0.71% [2]. Downstream Situation - The corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 25 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 22 yuan/ton respectively, down 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.04%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 7.69%, and that of at - the - money put options is 7.03%, up 1.11% [2]. Key Data on Corn Starch Inventory - As of November 12, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 113.3 million tons, down 0.50 million tons from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.44%, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.59% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to be under pressure and in a correction trend, with the London gold price once breaking below the significant $4000 mark. Uncertainty over the release of the US CPI data for October, combined with previous warnings from Fed officials about the risk of inflation rebounding, has significantly reduced the probability of rate cuts in December and January next year. The rebound of the US dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield, as well as the sharp correction in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets, have also intensified liquidity risks, posing resistance to the upward movement of gold and silver prices [2]. - In the short term, the correction in the US stock market may exacerbate market liquidity risks and cause short-term shocks to the gold price. The Fed's stance is more hawkish than expected, and the rate cut expectation is under pressure, which is a potential negative for the gold price. However, geopolitical risks may continue to provide price support, and the possibility of a significant decline in the gold market in the short term is relatively limited [2]. - In the medium to long term, the US debt pressure continues to intensify, and investors' confidence in the US dollar tends to weaken. Gold, as the preferred asset for hedging against US dollar credit, remains attractive. Coupled with the continuous intervention of central banks buying gold at low prices, the central price of gold may further increase [2]. - Technically, the short-term upward momentum has significantly weakened, and the $4000 and $50 integer marks for London gold and silver prices form key supports. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 900 - 950 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2602 contract should focus on the range of 11300 - 12000 yuan/kilogram [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 918.52 yuan/gram, down 10.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 11699 yuan/kilogram, down 234 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 10851 hands to 90872 hands, while those of Shanghai silver increased by 10886 hands to 322401 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 473 hands to 107875 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 12386 hands to 93067 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold and silver both decreased to 0, with a decrease of 90426 kilograms for gold and 569355 kilograms for silver [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 917.3 yuan/gram, down 14.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 11787 yuan/kilogram, down 190 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was -1.22 yuan/gram, down 3.21 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 88 yuan/kilogram, up 44 yuan [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.57 tons to 1041.43 tons, while silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15218.42 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in the CFTC increased, with an increase of 339 contracts for gold to 266749 contracts and an increase of 738 contracts for silver to 52276 contracts. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the global total demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold decreased by 0.58% to 27.02%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.93% to 28.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold both increased by 2.17% to 28.93% [2]. 2. Industry News - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson believes that the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. He also reiterated that as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers need to be more cautious and proceed slowly. Fed Governor Waller believes that the Fed should cut rates again at the December meeting due to the weak US labor market and the harm of monetary policy to low - and middle - income consumers [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out that the job market shows "mixed signals", suggesting that the labor market may be slowing down [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 42.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 57.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 48.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 16.1% [2].

至年底，原油供强于需局面预计维持，但地缘方面美委关系紧张可能加剧，国际油价多空因素交织。美国 调油需求提升，海外纯苯价格偏强。短期BZ2603预计震荡走势，日度K线关注5450附近支撑与5600附近压 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 纯苯产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5467 | -80 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 5498 | -67 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 11185 | -3006 主力持仓量:纯苯(日,手) | 20273 | -2 | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 市场价:纯苯:华南市场:主流价(日,元/吨) | 5420 5300 | 15 市场价:纯苯:华北市场:主流价(日,元/吨) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 177,527 lots, up 15,757 lots; the position of the main contract is 484,357 lots, down 78,597 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 20 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,611 lots/ton, down 342 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 85,050 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,120 yuan/ton, up 2,930 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,010 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 9,900 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,545 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 170,000 yuan/ton, up 10,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 165,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 37,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 46.45%, up 1.12%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.56%, up 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 171,798 lots, down 6,463 lots; the total put position is 167,227 lots, up 28,714 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 97.34%, up 19.637%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.44%, up 0.0914% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that in 2025, the investment growth rate of the automobile industry reached 17.5%. In the first 10 months of 2025, automobile production was 27.33 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 12.67 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%, with a penetration rate of 46%; fuel vehicle production was 14.65 million units, unchanged year - on - year. In October 2025, automobile production was 3.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 1.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In October, the export of new energy vehicles was 256,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 15.4% and a year - on - year increase of 99.9%. From January to October, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million units, a year - on - year increase of 90.4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate, the "cost - effective champion" of batteries, has recovered, rising about 10% since October [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage where supply slightly converges and demand remains generally stable. The current oversupply situation may improve with production control. Suggest light - position short - term long trades at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Suggest light - position range - bound trading, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of supply convergence and slightly reduced demand. Suggest light - position range - bound trading, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 60 yuan, up 80 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 356,547 lots, down 34,312 lots; the net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 19,360 lots, down 5,102 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.65, up 0.05; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 114,899 tons, up 1,564 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 69,484 tons, up 4,742 tons [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,780 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 61 yuan, up 21 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 405,009 lots, up 14,515 lots [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,730 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 105 yuan, down 45 yuan; the main contract holding volume was 13,191 lots, down 508 lots; the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipt was 59,431 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 65,119 tons, up 779 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,460 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 21,590 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 38.42 dollars/ton, down 10.37 dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 5 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,775 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 5 yuan, up 32 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 720 yuan, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the national alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons; the export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 59.70 million tons, up 3.10 million tons; the import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of electrolytic aluminum was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 98.24 million tons, down 0.12 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products and Alloys**: The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 177.60 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles; in 2025, the automobile investment growth rate reached 17.5%; in October 2025, automobile production was 328 units, up 11% year - on - year; new energy vehicle production was 171 units, up 19% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 157 units, up 4% year - on - year; from January to October 2025, automobile production was 2,733 units, up 11% year - on - year; new energy vehicle production was 1,267 units, up 28% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 46%; fuel vehicle production was 1,465 units, unchanged year - on - year [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.83%, up 1.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.23%, up 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 11.16%, down 0.0051; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.34, up 0.1024 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Federal Reserve News**: Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk of employment has increased but reiterated the need for more cautious policy adjustment; Fed Governor Cook denied fraud accusations; Fed Chair candidate Hasset said the job market signals are confusing and AI may suppress recruitment demand; Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [2]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October this year, the national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; in October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, up 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% year - on - year [2]. - **Automobile Industry**: In October, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000 units, up 15.4% month - on - month and 99.9% year - on - year; from January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million units, up 90.4% year - on - year [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 85,650.00 | -800.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,686.00 | -92.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 164,395.00 | -15532.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -23,694.00 | +11.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 135,725.00 | -450.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 109,407.00 | -5628.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 9,650.00 | -475.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 56,965.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 86,005.00 | -505.00↓ 长江有色市 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remained at a high level. Factories had sufficient replenishment in the early stage. Most of the outbound shipments from the general - trade warehouse were for the delivery of previous orders. Downstream stocking willingness was low, and new orders were few, so the general - trade inventory continued to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week, most semi - steel tire enterprises had stable device operation with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization. Some all - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will further decline. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,355 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber 12 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 10 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,129 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots. The position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 64,475 lots, a decrease of 30,902 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was 586 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was 493 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 108,130 tons, a decrease of 340 tons, and the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,695 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 19 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit was 149.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 0.95 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 12.26 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The all - steel tire opening rate was 64.5%, and the semi - steel tire opening rate was 73.68%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.36 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 6,025 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.51%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.36%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option was 20.47%, and that of the at - the - money put option was 20.46% [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 930,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 664,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 9.16 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points. As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]