研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.15」 棉花（纱）市场周报 供需皆弱缺乏指引，关注美农供需报告 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情分析： 本周郑棉主力2601合约上涨，周度涨幅约2.32%。棉纱期货2511合约上涨2.96%。 行情展望：国内方面，棉花处于去库存状态，新棉上市前供应偏紧，现货价格和基 差表现坚挺。需求端，纺织行业消费淡季，内地纺企已无利润，整体开机率持续下 降，企业对原材料的采购以刚需为主，寄望"金九银十"带来需求改善契机。新作 方面，2025年中国棉花总体种植面积增长，关注天气对新作生长的影响。总体来说， 国内旧作供应偏紧，支撑棉花价格波动，不过下游需求疲软，将限制上方空间，预 计维持高位震荡行情。操作上，建议暂时观望。 未来交易提示： 3 1、关注外棉价格变化 2、宏观因素 3、贸易政策 4、天气因素 「 期现市场情况」 美棉市场 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉价格走势 来源 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.15」 天然橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周利好持续提振，胶价呈现上涨趋势。进口胶市场报盘上涨，贸易商轮换，工厂少 量补货，实单成交表现坚挺。期货盘面宽幅震荡，国产天然橡胶重心不稳，持货商报盘谨慎，下 游多持观望态度，买盘热情不高，实单成交较为清淡。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨天气偏多，原料供应承压明显，收购价 格保持坚挺；海南产区降水天气偏多，割胶作业开展受限，岛内原料供应呈现收紧态势，但现货 方面高价成交困难，当地加工厂高价原料补库积极性下滑，原料收购价格下跌。近期青岛港口现 货总库存继续呈现去库态势，保税及一般贸易库均呈现去库，一般贸易去库幅度环比扩大，海外 货源到港入库量维持偏少态势，整体入库率环比下滑，而部分轮胎企业继续小幅补货，叠加前期 订单陆续提货，整体出库率环比增加，从而使得青岛现货总库存继续呈现去库态势。 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly market report on the urea market, released by Ruida Futures Research Institute on August 15, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market showed a weak downward trend this week. With some plant restarts, the daily output of urea increased slightly. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise, and it is expected to keep increasing in the short term. The report suggests trading the UR2601 contract in the range of 1700 - 1770 yuan [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2601 contract in the 1700 - 1770 yuan range [6] - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the average price down 55 yuan/ton week - on - week [7] - **Market Outlook**: Some plants restarted, increasing the daily output of urea. Next week, 1 - 2 enterprises are planned to stop production while 3 - 5 are expected to resume. Considering potential short - term breakdowns, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is limited. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to rise and is expected to keep rising in the short term [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.8% [11] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of August 15, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 16 [15] - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the summary part - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, there were 3573 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 200 from last week [23] Spot Market - **Domestic Price**: As of August 14, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and in Jiangsu was 1730 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan) [28] - **Foreign Price**: As of August 14, the FOB price of urea in China was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton from last week [32] - **Basis**: As of August 14, the urea basis was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - **Coal and Gas Prices**: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of August 14, the output of Chinese urea producers was 134.86 million tons, an increase of 2.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% from the previous period [42] - **Inventory**: As of August 14, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 46.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.9 million tons week - on - week, a decline of 3.93%. As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.74 million tons, an increase of 6.98 million tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86% [45] - **Export**: In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2618.13%. The average export price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4662.05% [48] Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98 percentage points. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from last week [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the report suggests a bullish approach. Internationally, good weather in most areas of Canadian rapeseed crops boosts the prospects of a bumper harvest, while China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on prices. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, with ample vegetable oil supply. However, the low operating rate of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply. The market fluctuates greatly due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, the report recommends a bullish mindset and suggests paying attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is expected to decrease, reducing production and ending stocks. Domestically, the high operating rate of oil mills and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the rapeseed meal market. But less rapeseed arrives in the near - term, and it's the peak season for aquaculture, increasing the demand for rapeseed meal. The anti - dumping measures also weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping preliminary ruling [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Bullish participation [7] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9757 yuan/ton, an increase of 196 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 296,496 lots, an increase of 116,426 lots from last week [8][16]. - Market Outlook: International factors include good weather in Canada and China's anti - dumping measures. Domestically, it's the off - season for oil consumption, but low mill operating rates, fewer rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures ease supply pressure. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Bullish thinking, pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [10] - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. The total open interest was 448,610 lots, an increase of 12,773 lots from the previous week [11][16]. - Market Outlook: The US soybean harvest area decrease affects the market. Domestically, high mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory suppress the market, but less near - term rapeseed arrival, peak aquaculture season, and anti - dumping measures support it. However, the substitution of soybean meal weakens demand. The market fluctuates due to the anti - dumping ruling [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Open Interest**: Rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures both rose first and then fell. Rapeseed oil's total open interest increased by 116,426 lots to 296,496 lots, and rapeseed meal's increased by 12,773 lots to 448,610 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: For rapeseed oil, the top 20 net positions changed from net long (+21,321) to net short (-2,284). For rapeseed meal, it changed from net long (+22,737) to net short (-17,470) [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 registered warehouse receipts, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 [27][28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: In Jiangsu, the rapeseed oil spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, and the basis was +113 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the rapeseed meal price was 2,590 yuan/ton, and the basis was +44 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +165 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.83, and the average spot price ratio was 3.81 [52]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, with relative volatility this week. The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 297 yuan/ton, narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 591 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 490 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of August 8, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 570,000 tons, and 430,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - Import Pressing Profit**: As of August 14, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +863 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 32nd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 62,000 tons, with an operating rate of 15.17% [82]. - **Supply - Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 1.70% from last week. In June 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [91]. - **Demand - Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan [95]. - **Demand - Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% from last week [99]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 32.61% from last week [103]. - **Supply - Import Volume**: In June 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [107]. - **Demand - Monthly Feed Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons [111]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options fluctuated up and down. As of August 15, the implied volatility was 24.73%, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [116].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 increased by 1.37%. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple production in the new season will be 37.3664 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.35%. As of August 13, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, with a slightly slower shipping speed. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is not large, but the overall shipping speed has slowed down. With the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples, it may restrain the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on Apple Futures Contract 2510 and pay attention to the coloring and listing of early - maturing apples [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 rose 1.37% this week [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons (2.35%) compared to the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from last week. The shipping speed slowed slightly. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is small, but the overall shipping speed has slowed. The supply of bagged Gala apples in the western region is increasing, but the purchasing enthusiasm of buyers is average. Low inventory supports prices, but the increasing supply of Gala apples may restrict price increases [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on Apple Futures Contract 2510 [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the destocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2510 increased by 1.37% this week. As of this week, the net short position of the top 20 futures holders was 3,167 lots, and the number of futures warrants was 0 [11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 15, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan per jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per jin [19]. 3. Industry Conditions and Options - **Supply Side**: As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a decrease of 75,800 tons from last week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased by 1.06%, 0.47%, and 0.48% respectively compared to last week [26]. - **Demand Side**: - As of August 14, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.4 yuan per jin [30]. - As of August 8, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.51 yuan per kilogram, a 1.65% decrease from the previous period; the average wholesale price of all apples was 9.69 yuan per kilogram, a 0.62% decrease [35]. - As of August 8, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% decrease from the previous period [39]. - In June 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 40,000 tons, a 20% decrease from the previous month and a 38.6% decrease from the same period last year [42]. - **Substitute Products**: As of August 8, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, a 1.27% decrease from the previous period [39]. - **Options Market**: The document only mentions the implied volatility chart of at - the - money apple options this week, without specific data [43]. 4. Futures - Stock Correlation - The document only provides a chart of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, without specific data [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2509 rising by 0.03%. Overall, it slightly increased under the situation of rising supply and insufficient demand. In the first half of the week, the price rose due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but in the second half, the data revised the expectation and the price declined [4]. - The start - up rate is rising, and the output is increasing. The start - up rate of primary lead is still stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product income is stable. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to the continuous fluctuation of lead prices. The supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, with a tight supply of waste batteries at the raw material end and low confidence of smelters. The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional consumption peak season, the actual spot trading is average when the price rises, and the overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage. Although the consumption increment expectation in August is weak, there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, which reflects the improvement of overall demand. It is expected that the overall supply of Shanghai lead will remain flat next week, the demand will gradually increase, and it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will mainly fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200, with a stop - loss range of 16,300 - 17,300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated. The main contract 2509 was active, rising by 0.03%. It was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in the first half of the week and data revision in the second half [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The start - up rate and output are rising. The supply of primary lead is relatively stable, while the supply of secondary lead has regional differences and is relatively tight. The demand for lead is mainly in the lead - acid battery field, and it is in a slow recovery stage. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,200, with a stop - loss range of 16,300 - 17,300 [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead declined slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio decreased. As of August 14, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1,938 per ton, the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was 16,730 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.63 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, while the foreign premium and discount weakened. As of August 13, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 30 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 40.87 dollars per ton [12][16]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventories decreased, domestic inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 66,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons; the number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 61,784 tons, an increase of 3,128 tons [29][33]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Side**: - **Primary Lead**: As of August 7, 2025, the average start - up rate of primary lead in major production areas was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84% compared with last week; the weekly output was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week [18][20]. - **Secondary Lead**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic output of secondary lead in major production areas was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 47.44%, a decrease of 0.9% compared with the previous period. The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged at 68 as of July 31, 2025 [24][27][37]. - **Trade**: In June, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.69% and a year - on - year increase of 133.69%. The import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, and the import volume of lead alloy was 10,657 tons. From January to June, the total export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89%; the total import volume was 75,013 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 152.1% [39][41]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Processing Fees**: As of July 31, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrates was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee for imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - 60 dollars per thousand tons, both remaining flat [44][46]. - **Automobile Sales**: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the automobile sales volume was 2.593 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative automobile sales volume was 18.269 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4%. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 8.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 38.5% [48][50]. - **Product Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,890 yuan per ton, both remaining flat [52][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon rose by 1.09% and polysilicon by 3.84%. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated sharply with a rise - then - fall trend, and the polysilicon futures market went up first, then down, and rebounded later [4]. - In the future, for industrial silicon, supply in Southwest China is expected to increase, while demand from downstream industries remains flat. For polysilicon, supply may increase due to potential restarts and new capacity, but short - term demand is weak. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust, and the industrial silicon market will remain volatile [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short - term, with an oscillation range of 46000 - 53000 and a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon rose 1.09% and polysilicon rose 3.84%. The industrial silicon futures market was up then down, and the polysilicon futures market had a more complex up - down - up pattern [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the industrial silicon market, supply in Southwest China is expected to increase, while demand from downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) remains flat. In the polysilicon market, supply may increase, but short - term demand is weak, and it is expected to face adjustment [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Industrial Silicon**: The price oscillated, the spot price rose, and the basis strengthened. As of August 14, 2025, the spot price was 9400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 725 yuan/ton. The weekly production was about 7.98 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.95% [10][12][20]. - **Polysilicon**: The price oscillated, the basis weakened, and the spot price was flat. As of August 14, 2025, the spot price was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week, and the basis was - 3430 yuan/gram [14][16]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The raw materials of industrial silicon remained stable, and the electricity price was flat during the flood season. The electricity price in Baoshan was 0.29 yuan/kWh, other regions were at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and Xinjiang was at 0.35 yuan/kWh [22][26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased. As of August 14, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50693 lots, a week - on - week increase of 113 lots [28][30]. - **Downstream Products of Industrial Silicon** - **Organic Silicon**: The production and operating rate increased. As of August 7, 2025, the weekly production was 5.12 tons, up 7.11%, and the operating rate was 77.4%, up 6.46%. However, the cost decreased, the spot price dropped, and the profit slightly declined [32][34][42]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price rose, and the inventory increased significantly. As of August 14, 2025, the price was 20300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 4.94 tons, up 0.1 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to remain weak [44][49]. - **Polysilicon - Related Products** - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: The prices were flat, and the demand for polysilicon remained unchanged, which is expected to drag down the polysilicon market [51][53]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: The cost decreased, the profit and production increased, and the industry is gradually improving. As of August 14, 2025, the profit was 6990 yuan/ton, and the average cost was 40010 yuan/ton [58][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the soda ash futures rose 4.73% with a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures rose 1.25% and showed an overall weakening trend. Looking ahead, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, and with the approaching peak season and a possible interest - rate cut, the market may start restocking [7]. - The recommended trading strategy is to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1340 - 1450 with a stop - loss range of 1280 - 1480, and operate the FG2601 in the range of 1140 - 1230 with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1250 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures first fell and then rose, affected by rumors of production restrictions in Qinghai and lithium carbonate market fluctuations. Glass futures showed an overall weakening trend, with a decline after the contract switch and a subsequent rebound due to real - estate rumors [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, domestic production and operating rates increased this week, and although profits declined and future production is expected to fall, the short - term supply is still abundant. The demand from the glass industry is weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased. For glass, the supply is at a low level, real - estate demand is poor, and downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly. With an approaching interest - rate cut, the market may start restocking [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1340 - 1450 range with a stop - loss of 1280 - 1480, and operate FG2601 in the 1140 - 1230 range with a stop - loss of 1100 - 1250 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, both soda ash and glass futures prices closed down [9]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Soda ash spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened, but the recovery was not significant. As of August 14, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the Shahe market was 1285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. Glass futures weakened during the contract transfer, and the basis fluctuated greatly and was not currently reliable. As of August 14, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - panel glass in the Shahe market was 1088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 132 yuan/ton [14][18][21]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread between soda ash and glass weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week. As of August 14, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 180 yuan/ton [23][25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, but due to decreased profits, the operating rate is expected to decline next week. As of August 14, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 87.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07%, and the weekly production was 76.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.23% [26][31]. - **Enterprise Profits**: This week, the profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises declined, mainly due to falling spot prices and rising costs. As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash using the combined - soda process was 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 63 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 171.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.97%; using coal - gas as fuel was 92.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.06%; using petroleum coke as fuel was 87.71 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.83% [33][36]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines did not change, and the overall production remained the same. As of August 14, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 223 in operation, and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 111.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0%, and it is expected to remain low next week [38][43]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass increased this week and are expected to rise slightly next week. As of August 14, 2025, the capacity utilization of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.94%, and the daily melting volume was 88,180 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1,680 tons/day [45][47]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: The inventory of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises increased this week. As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 189.38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.87%, and the total glass inventory was 63.426 million weight cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.55% [49][53]. - **Downstream Demand**: The deep - processing orders of domestic glass downstream increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days [55][57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The operation suggestion is to be bearish with a side - to - side trend, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 791.00 yuan/ton, down 14.50 yuan; the position volume is 183,502 lots, down 31,080 lots; the 9 - 1 contract spread is 16 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 2,260 lots, down 7,038 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,400.00 lots, down 200.00 lots; the Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00 is 102.3 dollars/ton, down 1.21 dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 852 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 841 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 723 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the I main contract basis is 50 yuan, up 9 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 103.30 dollars/ton, down 0.70 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.29, up 0.03; the estimated import cost is 848 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,046.70 tons, down 15.10 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,571.60 tons, down 50.80 tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 14,267.27 tons, up 45.26 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,013.34 tons, up 1.25 tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 10,462.30 tons, down 132.70 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 18.00 days, down 6 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 38.84 tons, down 0.25 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 61.96%, down 0.36%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.60 tons, down 1.40 tons; the BDI index is 2,025.00, up 8.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.86 dollars/ton, up 0.10 dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.1 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 90.07%, down 0.15%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 8,318 tons, down 336 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 21.78%, up 1.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 19.46%, up 1.36%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 23.88%, up 3.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 23.25%, up 4.44% [2] Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2775.94 tons, up 19.66 tons from the previous period; the total daily consumption is 116.82 tons, up 0.68 tons from the previous period; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 23.76, up 0.03 from the previous period. From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2571.6 tons, down 50.8 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2381.9 tons, down 125.9 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports is 1203.0 tons, down 50.1 tons. On Thursday, the I2601 contract opened and closed lower. Macroscopically, US Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping volume and arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, the port inventory increased, and the molten iron output continued to decline slightly, but the output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the black series declined across the board, market sentiment declined, and anti - involution varieties corrected, with iron ore prices falling from high levels [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain loose, demand will continue to decline, and prices will be under pressure. Short - term soda ash is likely to continue to decline, and it is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract in the short term [2]. - For glass, overall prices are expected to decline next week. It is advisable to lay out short positions on the main contract at high prices. If the price drops to around 1100 yuan, consider the interest - rate cut trading expectation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 17; glass main contract closing price is 1220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 [2]. - Soda ash main contract position is 1282237 hands, with a daily increase of 64318; glass main contract position is 1035952 hands, with a daily increase of 12224 [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 347161, with a daily decrease of 19444; glass top 20 net position is - 304744, with a daily decrease of 36814 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 9275 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 3243 tons, an increase of 3243 [2]. - The price difference between soda ash September - January contracts is - 106, with a daily increase of 1; the price difference between glass September - January contracts is - 167, with a daily decrease of 14 [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 108 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 66; glass basis is - 132, with a daily decrease of 6 [2]. 现货市场 - North China heavy soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large plate is 1088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large plate is 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 产业情况 - Soda ash plant operating rate is 85.41% (weekly), with an increase of 5.14 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 73% (weekly), with a decrease of 2 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year (weekly), unchanged; the number of glass in - production production lines is 223 (weekly), with an increase of 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 187.62 million tons (weekly), with an increase of 1.11 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6184.7 million heavy boxes (weekly), with an increase of 234.8 million heavy boxes [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative value of real estate new construction area is 30364.32 million square meters, with an increase of 7180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate completion area is 22566.61 million square meters, with an increase of 4181.47 million square meters [2]. 行业消息 - China's July financial data: At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year; in the first seven months, the new social financing was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; in the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan [2]. - The Financial Times stated that single - month credit increment fluctuations should not be over - hyped [2]. - 188 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies have been allocated [2]. - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, with the subsidy scope including single - item consumption below 50,000 yuan and key areas such as household cars, elderly care, and childbirth for single - item consumption of 50,000 yuan and above [2]. - Liao Min of the Ministry of Finance said that after the one - year "double interest subsidy" policy expires, whether to extend it will be studied according to the situation [2]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration will dynamically track the flow of interest - subsidized loans to prevent the risk of misappropriation of interest - subsidy funds [2]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to the question of whether China has required domestic enterprises to avoid using NVIDIA H20 chips [2].