Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded. However, the inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted, increasing domestic production. The inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly this week. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose 2.5% this week [10]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 5 [17]. - As of November 14, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 2,980 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - As of November 13, the basis of butadiene rubber was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - As of November 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 73.02%, an increase of 3.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 29,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week [32]. - **Industry** - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month [35]. - As of November 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.92%, an increase of 3.9% from last week [35]. - As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 636 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of November 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 30,820 tons, an increase of 1,530 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [45]. - In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, China's cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [48]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the domestic economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. Overseas, the US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the employment market's downward risk has increased. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has significantly decreased. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail sales declining to varying degrees. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with limited room for further monetary easing this year. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract rose 0.18%, while the 10 - year T2512, 5 - year TF2512, and 2 - year TS2512 contracts fell 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively. The trading volume of TS and TF contracts increased, while that of T and TL contracts decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all decreased [13][30]. - **Performance of Underlying Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds rose by 0.25 - 1.5bp, while the 10Y and 30Y yields fell by 0.4bp and 0.6bp to 1.81% and 2.15% respectively [9]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In October, the expansion of domestic demand policies continued to show results. CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 2.1% year - on - year. The State Council issued measures to promote private investment. The cumulative social financing scale in the first ten months increased by 3.83 trillion yuan year - on - year. From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62%, social retail sales increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: From October 1 to 25, the US private sector lost 45,000 jobs. The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the economic loss caused by the shutdown was estimated at $15 billion per week [35][101]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year, and between 5 - year and 10 - year contract spreads widened. - **Near - far Month Spread**: The near - far month spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, and 5 - year contracts narrowed, while that of the 2 - year contract widened slightly [43][49][60]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short position of the top 20 positions in the T contract decreased slightly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 1.5 - 3.0bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 1.8bp and 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [70]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 148.1511 billion yuan, the total repayment was 99.4987 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6524 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0825, up 11 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB widened. - **US Bond Yield and VIX**: The 10 - year US bond yield fluctuated, and the VIX index rose significantly. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Outlook**: In October, domestic economic growth continued to slow down, with some economic indicators affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. - **Overseas Outlook**: The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October. The employment market's downward risk increased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December decreased significantly. - **Overall Outlook**: The economic data in October was weak, inflation rebounded slightly, and the economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, with limited room for further monetary easing. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices and four stock - index futures all declined this week, with Kechuang 50 and ChiNext Index falling over 3%. Market trading activity slightly rebounded compared to last week. The economic fundamentals were weak in October, with significant declines in domestic import/export, fixed - asset investment, social retail, and industrial added value. However, the overall performance of A - share third - quarter reports was good, providing bottom support. After the disclosure of A - share third - quarter reports and macro - economic data, the market will enter a vacuum period for macro data, performance, and policies next week, and the stock - index futures are expected to fluctuate [5][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures (IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512) and spot indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) all showed declines. For example, IF2512 had a weekly decline of 1.27% and a Friday decline of 1.56%, closing at 4600.4; CSI 300 had a weekly decline of 1.08% and a Friday decline of 1.57%, closing at 4628.14 [8]. 3.2消息面概览 (Overview of News) - In October, CPI and PPI showed certain changes, with CPI rising both month - on - month and year - on - year, and PPI rising month - on - month. Financial data showed that the growth rate of M1 declined more than that of M2, ending the continuous five - month upward trend of the M1 - M2 spread. Industrial added value, social retail, and fixed - asset investment all declined compared to the previous values, and the real estate market continued to decline [11]. 3.3周度市场数据 (Weekly Market Data) - **Domestic Main Indices**: Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Kechuang 50, SME 100, and ChiNext Index all declined, with Kechuang 50 and ChiNext Index having relatively large declines [15]. - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: S&P 500, FTSE 100, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 showed different trends, with some rising and some having declines on Thursday [16]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive sector strengthening significantly and the communication and electronics sectors weakening. Industry main - force funds were generally in net outflow, with large net outflows in the electronics and computer sectors [20][23]. - **SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, and the capital price was at a relatively low level [28]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 9.273 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted - share lifting market value was 30.017 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of north - bound funds was 918.491 billion yuan. The basis of IF and IH main contracts weakened slightly, while the basis of IC and IM main contracts fluctuated [31][39][42]. 3.4行情展望与策略 (Market Outlook and Strategy) - A - share major indices and four stock - index futures all declined this week. The economic fundamentals were weak in October, but the A - share third - quarter reports provided bottom support. Next week, due to the lack of clear trading guidance, the market is expected to fluctuate randomly, and the stock - index futures will maintain a volatile trend [90].

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market showed weak fluctuations, while the inland methanol market stopped falling and rose slightly. The price increase was limited due to the continuous back - flow of port goods and the cautious attitude of the market. In the near future, the overall domestic methanol production has decreased. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has declined, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has continued to decline and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The port methanol market was weakly volatile this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2040 - 2110 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2120 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices stopped falling and rose slightly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2185 - 2190 yuan/ton. The price increase was limited due to the back - flow of port goods [7] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has decreased, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has declined and is expected to remain stable next week [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.7% [11] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 14, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 108 [13] - **Position Analysis**: As of November 13, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11,709, an increase of 795 compared with last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 13, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2077.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1992.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week [26] - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 13, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 242 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 80 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [31] - **Basis**: As of November 13, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 25.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of November 12, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 13, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.59 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - **Industry**: As of November 13, China's methanol production was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. As of November 12, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 245,400 tons, an increase of 24,300 tons from the previous period. The total port inventory of methanol was 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 18.92% from the previous month; from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 13, the methanol import profit was - 16.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39 yuan/ton from last week [42][47][50] - **Downstream**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous week. As of November 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin paper profit was - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 181 yuan/ton from last week [53][56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate lacks support due to the weak export performance in October, although there are signs of improvement in the trade - war situation and a potential turning point in geopolitical conflicts. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may recover. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to experience more significant fluctuations. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [9][43] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The prices of container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2602 rose 1.12%, while the far - month contracts had declines ranging from - 1% to - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1504.8, up 296.09 points from last week, a 24.5% increase, which is expected to support the recovery of near - month freight rates. The trading of the EC2512 contract became more active as its trading volume and open interest increased [8][12][18] 2. News Review and Analysis - The US suspension of the export control penetration rule for one year is a positive move. The end of the US federal government shutdown has a neutral - to - positive impact, but the IMF predicts a lower GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter due to the shutdown. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rates, with some concerned about high inflation and others calling for rate cuts. China and the US have taken reciprocal measures in trade, which is generally positive [21] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts has shrunk, and the spread has widened. The export container freight rate index has rebounded rapidly. Global container shipping capacity is growing, and European Line capacity is recovering. The BDI and BPI have declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships is fluctuating at a high level, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar has narrowed [26][32][34] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices showed mixed performance this week. The main contract EC2602 rose, while far - month contracts declined. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid, and the price increase in November has mostly failed. The Middle East situation has postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. The eurozone economy is expected to continue to improve. Overall, the trade situation improvement has not yet affected trade, and investors should be cautious [42][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the supply may slightly converge while the demand remains relatively stable. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight increase in social inventory. It is suggested to lightly trade the Shanghai Aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly decreasing demand. It is recommended to lightly trade the cast aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. - In the options market, considering the subsequent aluminum price to fluctuate with potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, rising first and then falling, with a weekly increase of 0.99% to 21,840 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.4% to 2,822 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.4% to 21,095 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply tension of bauxite may ease. The current high - running capacity and high - level operation of alumina may affect smelter profits, leading to some high - cost enterprises reducing production. The demand from electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable. The supply - demand situation may improve with production control [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material price rebounds slightly but remains low, and the smelter profit is good with high - level operation of capacity and high start - up rate. The domestic supply may remain high. The demand may slow down due to the transition of downstream consumption from peak to off - peak season and high aluminum prices, but the export demand may be boosted by overseas supply disturbances, resulting in only a slight increase in domestic inventory [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of domestic scrap aluminum remains tight, and the cost support is strong. The production of cast aluminum enterprises is limited, and the demand may be affected by high prices and the transition from peak to off - peak season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7. LME Aluminum closed at 2,877 US dollars/ton on November 13, up 34 US dollars/ton (1.2%) from November 7. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.64, down 0.21 from November 7 [9][10]. - As of November 14, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (1.82%) from November 7. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21,095 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.4%) from November 7 [13]. - **Position and Net Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 783,579 lots, up 53,411 lots (7.31%) from November 7. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 29,167 lots from November 7 [16]. - **Futures Price Difference**: As of November 14, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 585 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan/ton from November 7. The copper - aluminum futures price difference was 65,060 yuan/ton, up 745 yuan/ton from November 7 [21]. - **Spot Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained unchanged from November 7 at 2,855 yuan/ton. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7 [24]. - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 21,890 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton (1.44%) from November 7. The spot discount was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of November 13, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, up 4,825 tons (0.88%) from November 6. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons on November 7, down 239 tons (0.21%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, up 1,000 tons (0.18%) from November 6 [33]. - As of November 14, 2025, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 64,742 tons, up 972 tons (1.52%) from November 7. The total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 521,525 tons on November 13, up 14,575 tons (2.88%) from November 6 [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% month - on - month but up 38.14% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 157.3053 million tons, up 31.97% year - on - year [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and crushed materials was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [44]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the alumina production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 68.5599 million tons, up 8.4% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% month - on - month but up 61.68% year - on - year, and the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 548,400 tons, down 57.78% year - on - year [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. - In October 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month but up 1.54% year - on - year. The total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The start - up rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and 1.01% from the same period last year [54]. - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 246,800 tons, up 80.13% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 1.9595 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 29,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 181,400 tons. From January to August 2025, the global aluminum market supply gap was 105,400 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Products**: - In September 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 49.7675 million tons, unchanged year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year, and the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 3.01 million tons, up 5.7% year - on - year, and the export was 4.52 million tons, down 8.1% year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month but up 15.96% year - on - year. The production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 tons month - on - month and 1.83% year - on - year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 14.116 million tons. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year, and the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 765,200 tons, down 13.97% year - on - year, and the export was 197,800 tons, up 9.62% year - on - year [64]. - **Related Industries**: - In October 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month but up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year [67]. - From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, up 8.81% year - on - year, and the production was 3.359 million, up 12.1% year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Given the subsequent fluctuating aluminum price and potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct light - position trading with attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [4][5] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 1.12% and an amplitude of 2.53%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 86,900 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's hawkish stance continues to send cautious signals. Daly said it's too early to say whether there will be a rate cut in December. Musalem believes that the policy is approaching neutrality and the easing space is limited [4] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the smelting cost support logic still exists. The supply growth of refined copper has slowed down, and the demand is temporarily stable. Social inventory has decreased slightly [4] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 14, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 86,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 960 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 192,293 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 14,843 lots [10] - **Spot Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 87,095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton [13] - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [13] - **Premium and Position**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 45 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 19,148 lots, an increase of 1,063 lots from last week [22] - **Option Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8142, a week - on - week increase of 0.0422 [27] 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Price and Processing Fee**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 77,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 590 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Import and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. The refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 3,453.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 235.74 yuan/ton [36] - **Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 498,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons [41] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The import profit and loss amount was 31.27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120.55 yuan/ton [50][51] - **Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 275 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 10,070 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 6,436 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 198,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [54] 3.5. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 0.6% and 9.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [64] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of October 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side of ferrosilicon is expected to see a decline in production from November to December due to losses of manufacturers and postponed new - capacity launches. The demand side will continue the downward trend of crude steel production, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - Macro: The "anti - involution" policy has led to the first monthly increase in PPI since last November, and the year - on - year decline has reached the smallest in over a year. Policies for new energy consumption and regulation have been released, and an energy supply guarantee meeting has been held [7]. - Overseas: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - Supply and demand: Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 480 yuan/ton. The November tender price of Hegang 75B ferrosilicon is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - Technology: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Considering the macro - situation, supply, and demand, it is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Overall Futures and Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 382,000 lots, a net increase of 25,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 12, a decrease of 54 points [13]. 3.2.2 Futures Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt quantity was 8450, an increase of 2751. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon basis was - 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 points [22]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Industry - This week (November 13), the national average capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.42% from last week. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a decrease of 4.36% (710 tons). The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel products was 19,073.8 tons, a decrease of 3.73%. The national weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons [28]. - This week (November 13), the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 3.39% (2670 tons). Inventory in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu increased, while that in Shaanxi and Qinghai decreased [32]. 3.3.2 Upstream - As of November 10, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Ningxia remained unchanged at 0.395 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh to 0.405 yuan/kWh. As of November 13, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged [37]. - As of November 13, the spot production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91%, and in Ningxia was 5631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 481 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.50% [41]. 3.3.3 Downstream - This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from last week and 9400 tons from last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons (7.25%) from the same period last year [46].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.14」 红枣市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 未来交易提示： 1、现货价格2、消费端 3 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约4.17%。 行情展望：新疆主产区阿拉尔、阿克苏等产区下树进度在6-8成附近，受现货价 格下跌，在疆客商采购积极性减弱。据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计，截止 2025年11月14日红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在9840吨，较上周增加299吨， 环比增加3.31%，同比增加141.47%，样本点库存增加。正值新季收购阶段，在疆 客商挑选合适货源按需采购，关注产区新季收购进度。考虑到供应增加，枣价 仍弱势运行可能。 「 期现市场情况」 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 来源：郑商所 瑞达期货研究院 本周郑枣2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约4.17%。 4 「 期现市场情况」 本周郑枣期货前二十名持仓情况 图2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while factories were cautious about restocking. The futures market showed a volatile and strengthening pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range. The trading volume of real orders was light [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices are stable, and the region is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of this month. Hainan's weather is favorable for tapping, and local factories are still offering higher prices for raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao ports is still increasing, but the rate has slowed down. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' production capacity utilization rates fluctuated slightly, while some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected to decline further next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and the futures market was volatile and strengthening. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range, and real - order trading was light [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of the month, while Hainan's tapping is progressing well. Qingdao's inventory is still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire enterprises may decline further [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.47% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 1.91% week - on - week [9]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85, and the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - grade rubber was - 30 [19]. - As of November 14, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons from last week; the 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of November 13, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg. As of November 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of November 13, the latex price in Yunnan was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, the same as last week [40]. - **Import Volume** - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 59.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 471.72 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [43]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 44.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 6.78 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.60% [47]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [50]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 68.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57 and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 639.08 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.