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白糖市场周报:外盘宽幅震荡,影响国内波动反复-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 10:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, leading to a loose global supply expectation. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement, causing the raw sugar price to fluctuate widely at a short - term low. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the demand for cold drinks is in the peak season, and the double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not large due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, but the increase in the number of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The new sugar - pressing season's output is expected to remain at the highest level in the past four years. Overall, the low - level fluctuation of the outer market affects the domestic market to fluctuate repeatedly. Fundamentally, the import is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the customs import data in July. The supply in the new sugar - pressing season is expected to be stable with a slight increase. Although short - term double - festival stocking provides support, it will still face pressure in the future. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short. Future factors to watch include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. The international raw sugar price fluctuated widely at a low level, and the domestic market was affected by it. The import pressure was released, and the supply would increase temporarily in September. The demand was expected to increase, and the de - stocking process slowed down [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short [8]. - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.05%. As of August 5, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.90% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.22% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 23.85% month - on - month. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 29,055 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 17,104 [10][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.36 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. As of August 15, the price of Guangxi Liuzhou sugar was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Yunnan Kunming sugar was 5,860 yuan per ton. As of August 13, 2025, the out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar was 5,786 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Thai sugar was 5,901 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the in - quota price was 4,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of August 13, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,324 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.84%; the out - of - quota profit was 90 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 164.71%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,236 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%; the out - quota profit was - 25 yuan per ton [13][26][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had ended, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons and a growth rate of 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [36][40][44]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the cumulative sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%; the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of white sugar this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [54]. - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [58].
期债全线下跌,长端陡峭下行
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 10:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the pace of economic recovery slowed, with marginal weakening on both the supply and demand sides. New policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. The bond market currently lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, suppressing bond market sentiment. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify, and in the short term, liquidity factors may become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - This week, the Treasury bond futures contracts of all maturities declined. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.54%, 0.32%, 0.17%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volume of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while the open interest of the TS, T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased [12][29] 2. News Review and Analysis - Policy: The three - department jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the nine - department including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities" [7] - Domestic economic data: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.63% year - on - year. The unemployment rate remained the same year - on - year. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase in the reduction of 310 billion yuan; the social financing increment in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 389.3 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July was 5.6%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [8] - Overseas economic data: In the US, the CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%. The PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. The number of initial jobless claims last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than expected. The US continued to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025 [9] - Exchange rate: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week [9] - Capital situation: This week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [9] 3. Chart Analysis - Spread changes: The yield spread between the 10 - year and 5 - year bonds and that between the 10 - year and 1 - year bonds slightly widened. The spread between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts and that between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed. The inter - period spread of the 10 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 30 - year contract slightly widened. The inter - period spread of the 2 - year contract fluctuated, and that of the 5 - year contract narrowed [42][46][50] - Treasury bond futures main contract position changes: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract slightly increased [63] - Interest rate changes: The Shibor rates of overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month terms all increased. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48%. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities rising by about 1 - 5bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y rising by about 5bp and 6bp to 1.74% and 1.99% respectively. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed, and that of 30 - year Treasury bonds slightly narrowed [67][71] - Central bank open - market operations: This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases totaled 711.8 billion yuan, with 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.48% [74] - Bond issuance and maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 1.75934 trillion yuan, and the total repayment was 1.559795 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 201.345 billion yuan [77] - Market sentiment: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1371, with a cumulative depreciation of 34 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond strengthened slightly, and the VIX index decreased slightly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond in China increased significantly, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [82][87][90] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestically, the economic recovery in July slowed down, but new policies in August may drive future economic data to rebound. Overseas, the sharp rise in the US PPI in July has frustrated the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Currently, the bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the "stock - strong, bond - weak" linkage effect may intensify. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of the widening term spread brought about by the steepening of the curve [93][94]
瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 10:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2390 - 2460 in the short term [7] - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [8] - The inventory of methanol enterprises in the inland area remains low, while the port inventory continues to accumulate. Next week, the port inventory is expected to continue increasing, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - After the restart of the olefin plant in Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin to full - load operation, the olefin industry's operating rate will increase [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2390 and 2460 in the short term [7] - Market review: The domestic port methanol market was slightly weak this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2330 - 2400 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2090 - 2125 yuan/ton. The downstream Dongying receiving price ranged from 2325 - 2360 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol production in China increased slightly. The inland supply was tight, and enterprise inventory remained low. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep rising next week. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of relevant plants [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main methanol contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.55% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of August 15, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 96 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the content - Warehouse receipt: As of August 14, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11168, an increase of 2480 from last week [22] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 15, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2095 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.5 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign price: As of August 14, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 266 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 15, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.5 yuan/ton from last week [38] 3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal price: As of August 13, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41] - Natural gas price: As of August 14, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.85 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.15 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of August 14, China's methanol production was 1863275 tons, an increase of 18050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.97% [44] - Inventory: As of August 13, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 102.18 million tons, an increase of 9.63 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 29.56 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 21.94 million tons, a decrease of 2.14 million tons from the previous period [49] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 122.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.58%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 537.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 14, the methanol import profit was 42.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54 yuan/ton from last week [52] Downstream - Operating rate: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41% [55] - Profit: As of August 15, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 952 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton from last week [58] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content
股指期货周报-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 10:21
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up over 5%. The four stock index futures also increased collectively, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. In terms of gains, IM > IC > IF > IH. The market trading activity increased significantly compared with last week, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeding two trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days, and the trading amount of northbound funds exceeding one trillion yuan for four consecutive weeks. Although some economic data weakened in July, it did not have much negative impact on the market. The market is currently focused on the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the medium and long term [8][104] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 3.09% this week, IH2509 rose 2.19%, IC2509 rose 4.88%, and IM2509 rose 5.21%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 2.37%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 1.57%, the China Securities 500 Index rose 3.88%, and the China Securities 1000 Index rose 4.09% [11] 2. News Overview - CPI: In July, the CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline of 0.1% last month, and was flat year-on-year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. - PPI: In July, the PPI fell 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and fell 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month. - Social financing scale: In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased 8.8% year-on-year, M1 increased 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased 9%. - Fixed asset investment: From January to July 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28822.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Among them, private fixed asset investment decreased 1.5% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 0.63% in July. From January to July, national real estate development investment was 5358 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. - Social consumer goods retail: In July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 3878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; from January to July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 28423.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. - Industrial added value: In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year-on-year in real terms. From a month-on-month perspective, in July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 0.38% from the previous month. From January to July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 6.3% year-on-year [14] 3. Weekly Market Data - Domestic major indices: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.55%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 5.53%, the SME 100 Index rose 3.11%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.58%. - Overseas major indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 rose 1.24%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.90%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.65%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 3.73%. - Industry sector performance: Most industry sectors rose, with the communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors rising significantly, and the banking sector weakening significantly. - Industry sector main fund flow: The main funds in the industry were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in the machinery equipment, national defense and military industry, and non-ferrous metals sectors. - SHIBOR short-term interest rate: The SHIBOR short-term interest rate was stable, and the capital price was low. - Restricted share lifting and northbound capital: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 6.239 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 233.12 billion yuan. The total trading volume of northbound funds was 1026.01 billion yuan. - Basis and net positions: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all converged [18][19][23] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Market outlook: Although some economic data weakened in July, it did not have much negative impact on the market. The market is currently focused on the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the drag on the index performance caused by the profit decline of companies that have not released their financial reports. At the same time, in the case of high valuations in the US stock market, A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the medium and long term [104]
贵金属市场周报-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 10:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September interest rate cut window is still the current market's baseline scenario, providing some support for gold prices. The expected US-Russia negotiations have intensified the long-short game in the precious metals market. If the negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may relieve the downward pressure on gold prices; otherwise, the safe-haven demand may drive up gold prices. The feasibility of an interest rate cut greater than 25bps is low and risky. The subsequent PCE and inflation data may become the indicators for the Fed's interest rate cut. In the medium to long term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline of the US dollar's credit still support gold prices. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the potential risks of unexpected outcomes in the US - Russia negotiations, and maintain a long - term strategy of buying on dips. The suggested trading ranges for next week are: 750 - 800 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract, 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract, 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce for the London gold price, and 37.5 - 38.5 US dollars/ounce for the London silver price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, US macro - data fluctuated significantly. Gold prices faced continuous resistance in rising, while silver prices remained relatively firm due to interest rate cut expectations. The July US CPI data strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September. The PPI index released on Thursday showed an unexpected rebound in producer inflation, which may lead to higher consumer inflation in the future, causing the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September to decline marginally and gold prices to be trapped in a range - bound oscillation [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's September interest rate cut window is the baseline scenario, providing support for gold prices. The US - Russia negotiations will intensify the long - short game. The call for an emergency interest rate cut by the US Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus plan, along with the risk of inflation rebound, make a large - scale interest rate cut less likely. The subsequent PCE data may be affected by the PPI rebound, which could hinder the interest rate cut expectations. In the medium to long term, gold prices are supported by multiple factors, and in the short term, they will fluctuate within a range [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, COMEX silver was at $38.05 per ounce, down 1.19% month - on - month; the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract was at 9204 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3389.4 per ounce, down 1.99% month - on - month; the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract was at 775.80 yuan/gram, down 1.52% month - on - month [13]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 14, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 964.22 tons, while the net holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained basically unchanged at 15100 tons [18]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's total positions increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 449647 contracts, and net positions increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 237050 contracts. COMEX silver's total positions decreased by 5.32% month - on - month to 161262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 14.73% month - on - month to 50658 contracts [23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions increased by 3.90% month - on - month to 292194 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 55144 contracts [28]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.6 yuan/gram, up 20.53% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 12 yuan/kilogram, down 58.62% month - on - month [31]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 38622416.43 ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 36045 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory remained basically unchanged at 506441781 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased by 2.20% month - on - month to 1158387 kilograms [38]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly by 0.14% month - on - month to 273364.75 kilograms, and silver ore imports dropped significantly by 7.51% month - on - month to 126019303.00 kilograms. Due to the surge in silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise, with the monthly production reaching 4506000.00 pieces in June 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate at 15.80% [40][46]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [52][56]. - **Gold Industry**: As of August 14, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 773 yuan/gram, down 0.96% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou gold decreased by 0.79%, 1.18%, and 0.70% week - on - week respectively [62]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The slowdown in central bank gold purchases and the high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [64]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The CPI data was slightly lower than expected, and the US dollar index continued to be under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility index declined, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price increased. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate rose slightly this week. In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [68][73][78][82].
玉米类市场周报:现货市场疲弱,期货维持偏弱调整-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the corn and corn starch markets remains weak, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9][13]. - For corn, the USDA's August supply - demand report is bearish, with increased U.S. corn production and ending stocks. In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn, the upcoming listing of new - season corn, and weak market consumption have put pressure on the price [8][9]. - For corn starch, the resumption of operations by previously - overhauled enterprises has increased supply, while downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed lower this week at 2190 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report is bearish, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as corn auctions and new - season corn listing, with weak spot prices. It is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed slightly lower after narrow - range fluctuations at 2522 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of operations, and demand is weak. Inventory has increased, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 828,457 lots, an increase of 236,354 lots from last week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed lower after narrow - range fluctuations with a total position of 138,621 lots, an increase of 31,700 lots from last week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 75,073, and the net short position increased compared to last week; the top 20 net position of starch futures was - 16,392, and the net short position also increased [25]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 132,529, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [31]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active November contract and the spot average price was + 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 328 yuan/ton [36][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread Changes**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period; the 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 28 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 332 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,438.11 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 43.99 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 138 yuan/ton, widening by 21 yuan/ton compared to last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Corn Supply - Side**: As of August 8, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 748,000 tons, a decrease of 144,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 131,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 760,000 tons or 82.61%. As of August 14, the average inventory days of feed enterprises across the country was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07% [50][68][72]. - **Corn Demand - Side**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million. As of August 8, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 45.13 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 134.14 yuan per head. As of August 14, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 63 yuan/ton. As of August 15, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 607 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 186 yuan/ton [76][80][84]. - **Corn Starch Supply - Side**: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from last week; the national corn starch production was 289,200 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. As of August 13, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.33% [88][92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of August 15, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.35%, an increase of 0.67% from 9.68% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated up and down, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].
鸡蛋市场周报:现货回暖幅度有限,近月期价继续走低-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market has continued to decline this week, with the 2510 contract closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens from previous supplementary stocking is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather has increased the substitutes for egg consumption, leading to low market demand for eggs. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the near - term contracts, the futures prices generally maintain a weak trend under the pressure of weak spot prices and high production capacity, while the long - term contracts are relatively more resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is to participate in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - The 2510 contract of eggs continued to decline, closing at 3,182 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 75 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - opened egg - laying hens is large. Cold - storage eggs are continuously released, increasing supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and substitutes for egg consumption are increasing. The spot price is lower than expected, and the breeding end is in a loss state [8]. - With school opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement, demand may pick up, potentially driving up egg prices. Near - term contracts tend to be weak, while long - term contracts are relatively resistant to decline [8]. - The recommended strategy is short - term participation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 10 - contract continued to decline, with a position of 315,692 lots, an increase of 110,551 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 33,540, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,066 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 180 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 116 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 393 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.74 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Elimination Indicators**: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national average age of eliminated chickens was 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,020 yuan per ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.31 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Prices of Egg - laying Chicken Chicks and Eliminated Chickens**: As of August 8, 2025, the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main producing areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated chickens in the main producing areas was 11.34 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, China's total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons or 7.87% year - on - year compared to 11,784.06 tons in the same period of the previous year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons month - on - month compared to 12,792.51 tons in the previous month [66]. 3.4. Representative Enterprise - A simple introduction to Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific content mainly shows the change in its price - earnings ratio, and no in - depth analysis is given [68].
合成橡胶市场周报-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Recently, the cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. The previously shut - down devices have not yet resumed stable production, and the inventory level continues to decline. Next week, some devices are expected to restart, and the domestic supply may increase significantly. Affected by the cautious sentiment of downstream and the production and sales pressure of downstream, the purchase in the market may be cautious, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires fluctuated slightly this week. Some large semi - steel tire enterprises had about a week of maintenance arrangements, which dragged down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. The shutdown sample enterprises of all - steel tires resumed work, and the current device production schedule has returned to the level before the shutdown, driving up the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. As the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually recovers, there is still a small room for the capacity utilization rate to increase, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprise production control will continue, which will drag down the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - The short - term of the br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated after rising, with the spot price ranging from 1,1400 to 1,1900 yuan/ton, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina sales companies increased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cost supports supply price; previous shutdown devices not fully recovered; inventory declining; next week some devices to restart, supply to increase; downstream purchase cautious, finished product inventory to rise; tire capacity utilization rate with small fluctuations, overall order average, production control to continue [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,1700 - 1,2200 [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided except for the topic of "Position Analysis of the Top 20 Holders of Cis - Butadiene Rubber" [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of August 15, the spread between September and October of butadiene rubber was - 5 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of August 15, the warehouse receipt of cis - butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, an increase of 0 tons compared with last week [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of August 14, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 1,1800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of August 14, the basis of butadiene rubber was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared with last week [24]. 3.2.3 Upstream Market - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of August 14, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 571 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 825 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared with last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of August 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.69%, an increase of 0.33% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with last week [31] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month; as of August 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 68.17%, a decrease of 3.65% compared with last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of August 14, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 482 yuan/ton, an increase of 124 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 30,440 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 23,450 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,990 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [45]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%; from January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34% [48]
生猪市场周报:出栏节奏或略有放缓,关注下旬需求-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pig prices declined, with the main contract 2511 dropping 1.66% weekly. The supply side saw an accelerated pace of weight - reducing sales in the first half of the month, increasing market supply. However, after price drops, farmers showed signs of resistance, and the sales pace might slow down. The demand side had sufficient pig supply, with improved demand in some areas and a mild increase in slaughterhouse operating rates. With the upcoming school openings and double - festival stocking, demand is expected to improve significantly. Overall, the previous increase in farmers' sales pressured spot prices, but the resistance sentiment may change the short - term sales pace, leading to stable price adjustments. Technically, the 2511 contract corrected, but the current weight - reducing sales will ease future supply pressure, and with expected demand improvement, the decline of futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for corrections and try long positions with light positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices dropped, and the main contract 2511 fell 1.66% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the early weight - reducing sales increased supply, but price drops may slow down the sales pace. On the demand side, with sufficient supply and improving demand, the operating rate of slaughterhouses rose. Future demand is expected to improve due to school openings and double - festival stocking. Spot prices may adjust stably, and futures price decline is limited. It is advisable to wait for corrections and try long positions with light positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Pig futures prices declined, and the main contract 2511 dropped 1.66% weekly [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1311 lots, and there were 430 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 50 from last week [16]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average pig price was 14.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 3.14% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.65 yuan from last week and 8.24% from last month [27]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: On August 7, the national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of August 6, the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the inventory increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424470000 heads, an increase of 7160000 heads from the previous quarter and 9140000 heads year - on - year. In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the inventory increased 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - **Pig Sales Volume and Average Weight**: In July, among 123 large - scale farms, the sales volume decreased 3.08% month - on - month but increased 18.60% year - on - year; among 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased 1.46% month - on - month but increased 57.67% year - on - year. The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 123.23 kg, a decrease of 0.09 kg from last week [48]. 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Pig Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 157.05 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 22.91 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 28.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 16.28 yuan/head from the previous period [53]. - **Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, the profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.26 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 0.05 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.86 yuan/head [53]. 3.3.3 Domestic and Substitute Markets - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported 540000 tons of pork, with an average monthly import of 90000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [58]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of August 15, the price of white - striped chickens was 1.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 14, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from last week [61]. 3.3.4 Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 14, the spot price of soybean meal was 3118.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 102.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2394.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of August 15, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 924.07, a decrease of 0.85% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [71]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2937700 tons, an increase of 175.6 tons from the previous month [76]. 3.3.5 CPI - As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [80]. 3.3.6 Downstream Market - **Slaughterhouse Operations**: In the 33rd week, the slaughterhouse operating rate was 27.79%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points from last week and 4.08 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.02%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points from last week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 17.52%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points from last week [83]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses was 30060000 heads, a decrease of 6.53% from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [88]. 3.4 Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [89].
红枣市场周报:减产预期支撑,红枣偏强震荡-20250815
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:36
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market sentiment of red dates has improved, and the inventory reduction process is progressing well. The new season's crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, with an expected production decline of 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, and an estimated new - season production of 56 - 62 million tons. Overall, the improving trading atmosphere and expected reduction in new - season production support the upward trend of red date futures prices. Technically, the red date 2601 contract is in an upward channel, and it is recommended to conduct long - biased trading [8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - **Market Trend**: This week, the price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% [8][11]. - **Inventory Status**: As of the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease, and a 72.62% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Production Forecast**: The new - season production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated production of 56 - 62 million tons [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct long - biased trading, with the support level for the red date 2601 contract at 11,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Future Trading Reminders**: Weather and consumption are the key factors to watch [8]. **Futures and Spot Market Conditions** - **Futures Price**: The price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% this week [8][11]. - **Futures Position**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red date futures was - 16,035 lots [15]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of this week, the number of red date warehouse receipts was 9,214 [17]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2605 and 2601 contracts of red date futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 140 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey dates and the main red date futures contract was - 1,095 yuan/ton [22]. - **Purchase Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the unified purchase prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.60 yuan/jin and 4.75 yuan/jin respectively [29]. - **Extra - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of extra - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 10.45 yuan/kg and 10.5 yuan/kg respectively [33]. **Industrial Chain Conditions** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, and a 79.94% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Supply - Production**: The 2024/25 production season of red dates is expected to see a recovery in production as the crops are growing well [43]. - **Demand - Export**: In June 2025, China's red date exports were 1,765,107 kilograms, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 17,115,674 kilograms, an 11.50% month - on - month increase [46]. - **Demand - Trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Red Date Good Brand had no trading volume [50]. **Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation** - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week was presented, but no specific data was provided [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of HaoXiangNi was presented, but no specific data was provided [54].