Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory pressure of domestic PE is not significant, with production enterprise inventory increasing by 19.09% to 515,400 tons and social inventory decreasing by 1.22% to 568,700 tons [2]. - The next round of intensive maintenance of domestic PE is expected to start in mid - August. This week, the restart of devices such as Yanchang Zhongmei and Wanhua Chemical is expected to lead to a month - on - month increase in production and capacity utilization [2]. - Affected by the leap June, the demand for domestic shed films is postponed, lengthening the off - season cycle of the downstream. Food and daily chemical packaging films have sporadic order accumulations, mainly for rigid demand [2]. - In terms of cost, due to the continuous impact of OPEC+ production increase, the remaining demand in the US fuel peak season, and the upcoming meeting between the US and Russian presidents, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton in the short term, and the L2601 contract still faces pressure in the future, with technical attention paid to the support near 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7,364 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7,367 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7,314 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume is 175,650 lots, up 17,899 lots; the open interest is 252,486 lots, down 18,026 lots [2]. - Spread and position: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 50 yuan, up 4 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 165,386 lots, down 4,538 lots; the short position is 167,158 lots, down 14,907 lots; the net long position is - 1,772 lots, up 10,369 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - LLDPE prices: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7,284.78 yuan/ton, up 3.91 yuan; in East China, it is 7,376.43 yuan/ton, up 2.62 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis is - 29.22 yuan, down 20.09 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Naphtha prices: The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.06 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 570.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.5 US dollars [2]. - Ethylene prices: The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - PE production and utilization rate: From August 1st to 7th, the total polyethylene production in China was 660,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.89%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 85.72%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75 percentage points. The current national petrochemical PE operating rate is 84.08%, up 2.99 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - PE downstream operating rates: The operating rate of polyethylene packaging films is 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points; for pipes, it is 29%, up 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 13.07%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 12.21%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.23%, down 0.28 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of polyethylene is 12.55%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Production and demand: From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% compared with the previous period, among which the operating rate of agricultural films increased by 0.4% [2]. - Inventory: As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 515,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09%; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is favorable for the non - ferrous sector as there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over recycled lead. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to lead price fluctuations. [3] - The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and smelters lack confidence, resulting in a tight overall supply. The sewage inspection in Anhui has affected local recycled lead production, increasing supply uncertainty. [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not shown a significant explosive growth but is in a slow recovery stage. Although there is a marginal improvement in the atmosphere of downstream low - price purchases, the consumption growth expectation in August is weak. However, there is a possibility of demand improvement as the peak season progresses. [3] - The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the current demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead this week. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,003.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. [3] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 99,522 lots, down 3,885 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 4,322 lots, down 999 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,482 tons, down 174 tons. [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 268,375 tons, down 1,025 tons. [3] 现货 Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 31.29 dollars/ton, up 2.23 dollars. [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,154 yuan, up 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. [3] - The average operating rate of primary lead is 77.49%, up 3.68%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.41 tons, up 0.06 tons. [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons. [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly import volume of lead ore is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons. [3] - The monthly import volume of refined lead is - 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,203.57 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, unchanged; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,814.22 points, down 14.84 points; the monthly automobile output is 280.86 tons, up 16.66 tons. [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons. [3] Industry News - Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15. There are different stances on the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The US is considering inviting Zelensky to participate, and the US vice - president believes that a Russia - Ukraine summit before the Trump - Putin meeting is not constructive. [3] - Netanyahu says Israel must defeat Hamas. The Israeli military's next - stage operations will target two Hamas - controlled areas, which has been criticized by European members of the UN Security Council and the Israeli finance minister. [3] - Trump plans to remove Billy Lang as the IRS director, and Treasury Secretary Bessent may serve as the acting director. E.J. Anthony is a top candidate for the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. [3] - Fed Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September and three cuts this year. JPMorgan has changed its Fed interest rate cut forecast from one to three times this year. [3]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7250 | 15 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 195362 | 36522 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 163627 | 手) -4071 10月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7272 | 14 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 227178 | -8277 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 3434 | -3796 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 160193 | -275 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 746 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7640 | 10 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 887 | -10 | | | 苯乙 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 779.48 | -8.32 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9210 | -68 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 211644 | -8677 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 358701 | -15253 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 171872 | -4568 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 118404 | 1830 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 36045 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1151962 | -6425 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 778.5 | -3.8 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 9184 | -42 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -0.98 | 4.52 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -26 | 26 | | 供需情况 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Sugar Industry Daily Report on August 11, 2025, covering various aspects of the sugar industry including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and market news [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Report's Core View - Import expectations are increasing, spot prices are weak, and the far - month contracts corresponding to the new crushing season are mainly weak in the short term. It is recommended to conduct rebound short - selling transactions [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,573 yuan/ton with no change; the main contract's open interest is 307,158 lots, an increase of 6,182 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 18,240 sheets, a decrease of 305 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 36,182 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The import - processed estimated price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,584 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5,683 yuan/ton. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5,825 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 6,010 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 billion tons, an increase of 0.2347 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 12.62%, an increase of 6.07 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 12.62%, an increase of 6.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.54% with no change [2] Industry News - According to Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80 (previously 79), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.5777 billion tons (previously 3.5531 billion tons). Last Friday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed up 1.5%, and on Monday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05%. Globally, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and the global supply is expected to be loose, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of sugar cane in the 2025/26 season, leading to a short - term rebound in raw sugar prices [2] Viewpoint Summary - Conab Analytics reports that the decline in the per - unit yield of sugar cane in Brazil may reduce Brazil's 2025/26 sugar cane output to less than 600 million tons, far lower than Conab's forecast of 663.4 million tons. Domestically, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, and the import pressure is released. Beet sugar will start crushing in September, leading to a temporary increase in supply. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has inventory - building needs, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks is picking up. In terms of inventory, the previous production and sales progress was good, and the current inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in the quantity of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. According to the China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' sugar supply - demand report, the 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 1,120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's purchasing and selling atmosphere has improved, and the inventory reduction process is going well. The new - season crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the production areas. The estimated new - season production is between 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease of 20 - 25% compared to 2024 and 5 - 10% compared to 2022. The overall purchasing and selling atmosphere has warmed up, and the expected reduction in new - season production supports the continued rise of red date futures prices. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the red date futures main contract is 11,685 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 153,559 hands, a decrease of 1,078 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,788 hands, the number of warehouse receipts is 9,214, and the valid warehouse receipt forecast is 1,705 [2]. 现货市场 - The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.65 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 10 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 10.22 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10.2 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 2.54% month - on - month and an increase of 72.62% year - on - year. The monthly red date export volume is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of好想你 in the quarter is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year production growth rate of red dates of好想你 in the quarter is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. Industry News - On August 11, the temperature in Kashgar was between 22 - 35°C. The jujube fruits in this area were significantly larger than those in the First Division of the Corps and Aksu. The per - mu yield of each regiment farm varied, with the mainstream per - mu yield being 600 - 700 - 800 kg. Attention should be paid to the growth and weather changes in the production areas. The red date 2601 contract rose 3.32% on Monday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 showed a fluctuating upward trend and closed at 6,230 yuan/ton. In the short term, the pure benzene price is supported. Technically, BZ2603 should focus on the support near 6,100 and the resistance near 6,350 [2]. - In the supply side, new plants of Yulong and Jingbo started production this week, and some plants in East China restarted. The capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene increased by 0.21% week-on-week to 78.79%. The number of domestic hydrobenzene shutdown plants increased, and the capacity utilization rate of hydrobenzene decreased by 3.29% week-on-week to 59.66%. Domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase week-on-week. The small number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the domestic increase [2]. - In the demand side, the operating rate of pure benzene downstream mainly decreased last week, and the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.22% week-on-week to 76.74%. Next week, the five major downstream industries of pure benzene will have intensive restarts of maintenance plants, and the consumption of pure benzene is expected to increase week-on-week [2]. - In the long - term, the converted production capacity of new downstream plants of pure benzene in August is higher than that of pure benzene, which gives an improving trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene, and the spot supply - demand gap may gradually shrink [2]. - In terms of cost, affected by the continuous increase in production by OPEC+ and the remaining demand in the US fuel peak season, and with the upcoming meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene was 6,230 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the settlement price was 6,231 yuan/ton, with no change. The trading volume was 5,637 lots, an increase of 522 lots; the open interest was 13,779 lots, a decrease of 422 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6,115 yuan/ton, with no change; in the North China market, it was 6,160 yuan/ton, with no change; in the South China market, it was 6,050 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northeast region, it was 6,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB was 733 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the CIF price in China was 746.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.16 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.13 US dollars/barrel. The CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 570.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points. The weekly output was 44.6 tons, an increase of 1.03 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 16.3 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118.2 yuan/ton. The production profit was 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 77.73%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, an increase of 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the profit of PetroChina's pure benzene was 576 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton compared with last week [2]. - As of August 11th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.6 tons, a decrease of 10.43% from the previous period [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may see a slight increase in both supply and demand. Costs are supported, and supply expectations are improved by policies. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. The option market is bullish. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand in the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the alumina futures main contract closes at 3,182 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,615 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The spreads of some contracts show various changes [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 215,510 hands, down 6,228 hands; the alumina main contract is 114,892 hands, down 7,074 hands [2]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is 470,575 tons, up 1,075 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 113,614 tons, down 3,913 tons; the alumina total inventory is 85,472 tons, up 38,284 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 115 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 70 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The alumina production is 774.93 tons, up 26.13 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 696.19 tons, down 23.83 tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import of alumina is 10.13 tons, up 3.38 tons; the export is 17.00 tons, down 4.00 tons. The import of aluminum scrap and waste is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,523.20 tons, up 2.50 tons; the production of aluminum products is 587.37 tons, up 11.17 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 tons, up 0.29 tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.20 tons, up 5.20 tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.58 tons, up 0.16 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of automobiles is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles; the production of aluminum alloy is 166.90 tons, up 2.40 tons [2]. - **Market Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 7.78%, down 1.51%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.69%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.77%, up 0.0005 [2]. - **Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.15, up 0.0039 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In July, the CPI环比 turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase, and the PPI环比 decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points [2]. - **Trade Forecast**: The WTO expects the global goods trade volume to grow by 0.9% in 2025 [2]. - **Policy Statements**: Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year; US Treasury Secretary Bentsen comments on Trump's tariff policy and the Fed chair [2]. - **Consumption Promotion**: The "Thousands of Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new - energy vehicle consumption season starts, and in July, the production and retail of new - energy vehicles show significant growth [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On August 11, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1256.0, up 2.99%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The trade - weighted average tariff rate of the US on all global products rose to 20.11% as of August 7. The mine - end inventory generally decreased, the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate declined for three consecutive months, and the total inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and upward - trending operation [2]. - On August 11, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1681.0, up 1.97%. The fifth round of price increase was implemented in the spot market. China's CPI was flat year - on - year in July, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The competition order in industries such as coal and photovoltaic was optimized, reducing price drag. The raw material inventory rebounded, the pig iron output was 242.23 tons this period, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The pig iron output was at a high level, and the coal mine inventory was no longer under pressure, with inventory transferring downstream. The total coking coal inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 16 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and upward - trending operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1256.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1681.00 yuan/ton, up 27.50 yuan. The JM futures contract positions were 942082.00 lots, up 26238.00 lots; the J futures contract positions were 53077.00 lots, up 1123.00 lots. The net positions of the top 20 JM contracts were - 97157.00 lots, down 2440.00 lots; the net positions of the top 20 J contracts were - 7122.00 lots, up 338.00 lots. The spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 149.50 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 78.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 100.00, up 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 800.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 973.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The forward spot price of Russian prime coking coal (CFR) was 145.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1550.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 64.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was - 16.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%. The raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.30 tons, down 5.30 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2]. National Industry Situation - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons. The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 10.91 days, down 0.26 days. The import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons. The coking coal output was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.03%, up 0.34%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan/ton. The coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. Industry News - In July, China's CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI fell 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and fell 3.6% year - on - year, the same as last month. As of the 7th, the US trade - weighted average tariff rate on all global products rose to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year. US President Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Putin in Alaska on the 15th to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy, and eligible families are no longer restricted in the number of housing purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road. In the past year, at least a dozen provinces and cities have issued incentive policy documents, or planned to set up or have set up state - owned asset M&A funds, which have transformed from "fund providers" to "industry integrators" [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The raw material cost support has weakened as the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply and raises costs, but the rapid release of Indonesian ferronickel production capacity has led to a significant rebound in output and a notable decline in ferronickel prices recently [2]. - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the increase in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, the steel output is expected to increase in August [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, with the optimistic expectation of the peak season from September to October and the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. Recently, steel prices have risen, and downstream buyers are mainly purchasing on - demand. The domestic inventory reduction has slowed down, and the spot premium has remained stable [2]. - Technically, with the increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract was 13,225 yuan/ton, a change of 240 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts was - 80 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 17,378 lots, an increase of 4,398 lots; the position of the main contract was 135,260 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity was 103,036 tons, an increase of 53 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi was 13,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract was 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output was 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output was 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 592,900 tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume was 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators was 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors was 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, turning from a 0.1% decline in June. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June [2]. - The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which will consolidate Russia's controlled territory. Zelensky stated that he firmly rejects territorial concessions, and an agreement without Ukraine's participation will be an "invalid plan" [2].