Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - A-share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, showing a random walk state, and trading activity declined compared to last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - Treasury futures weakened collectively this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. Although the central bank's Treasury bond trading volume in October was prudent, bond - buying operations still released a loose signal. The market expects short - term interest rates to continue to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. - The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut pushed up the US dollar index, and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, crude oil and gold were stable recently, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro. The Japanese yen's trend is mainly volatile in the short term [10][14]. - China's foreign trade declined more than expected in October, with exports turning from an increase to a decrease. But the positive results of the Sino - US consultation in Kuala Lumpur are expected to relieve the foreign trade pressure [15]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose 0.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, and trading activity declined. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.06% (a weekly change of + 0.11BP), and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.19%. Treasury futures weakened this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. The central bank's bond - buying operations released a loose signal. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a risk of long - term interest rate suppression due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.90%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.51%. The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices, but crude oil and gold were stable, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar fell 0.02%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.06%. The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro [10]. 2. Important News and Events - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation in Kuala Lumpur, including stopping some tariff - adding measures on US imports [18]. - The US federal government's shutdown set a new record, which may cause economic losses. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose tariffs on China, and the EU reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target [19]. 3. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - China's October exports in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1% year - on - year [15]. - The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the ADP employment number was 4.2 million [20]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, and the September PPI monthly rate was - 0.1% [20]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as Japan's September trade balance, UK's October unemployment rate, and China's October social consumer goods retail sales will be released [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's bond - buying operation in October released a loose signal, and the market generally expects the central bank to purchase mainly medium - and short - term bonds. In the short term, short - end interest rates are expected to continue to decline and may drive long - end interest rates down. However, the potential suppression of long - end interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be vigilant. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions on dips [104]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year (TL2512), 10 - year (T2512), 5 - year (TF2512), and 2 - year (TS2512) Treasury bond futures had weekly declines of 0.63%, 0.22%, 0.15%, and 0.07% respectively. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased. The positions of TS, T, and TL main contracts decreased, while the position of the TF main contract increased [13][30]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The main contracts of 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all declined this week [16][22]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: In November, there were multiple events. The Ministry of Finance established a Debt Management Department; the central bank conducted an equal - amount roll - over of 700 billion yuan of 3 - month repurchase operations; the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion US dollars of sovereign bonds in Hong Kong; China announced measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations; China's October export decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1%; the US employment situation was severe, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts; the US federal government continued to shut down, causing concerns about the subsequent monetary policy [33][34][35]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts also narrowed. The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of 10 - year, 30 - year, and 5 - year Treasury bond futures narrowed, while the 2 - year contract's spread fluctuated [43][49][60]. - **Main Contract Positions**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T main contract increased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates decreased, the overnight Shibor rate increased, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.41%. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened, with the 1 - 7Y maturity yields rising by 1.5 - 3.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 1.8bp and 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [71][77]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan in the open market this week, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell slightly to around 1.41% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 109.7884 billion yuan, the total repayment was 68.5032 billion yuan, and the net financing was 41.2852 billion yuan [85]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar increased by 44 basis points this week, and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated upward, the VIX index rose, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [89][95][100]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: Domestically, the economy shows a pattern of "strong production, weak demand" and "strong external demand, weak domestic demand". Overseas, the US service industry PMI rose to an eight - month high, but the manufacturing PMI was far below expectations. The employment market sent mixed signals, and the US federal government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the December interest rate - cut decision [103]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to try long positions with light positions on dips, considering the expected decline in short - end interest rates and the potential impact on long - end rates, while being vigilant about the recovery of risk appetite [104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 2.14%. The new - season late Fuji ground trading is gradually ending, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas. As of November 5, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide is 6.9842 billion tons, 1.1502 billion tons lower than the same period last year. The current inventory level of late Fuji is relatively low in recent years, and price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.14% [4][9]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season late Fuji ground trading is winding up, mainly in Shandong and Shanxi. As of November 5, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory is 6.9842 billion tons, lower than last year. Shandong has a 41.03% storage capacity ratio, down 13.42% year - on - year, and Shaanxi has a 56.81% ratio, down 10.77% year - on - year. Shandong's new - season late - maturing Fuji shows a trend of reduced yield and quality. Shaanxi's inventory is nearing completion, and the peak inventory is expected next week. The current late - Fuji inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and price fluctuations have increased [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to wait and see for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the price of late - maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract fell by about 2.14% this week. As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 7330 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 7, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty, and the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.30 yuan per catty [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of November 5, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 6.9842 billion tons, 1.1502 billion tons lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 41.03%, down 13.42% year - on - year, and in Shaanxi was 56.81%, down 10.77% year - on - year [25]. - **Demand Side** - **Wholesale Market Arrival**: As of November 6, the average daily early - morning arrival of vehicles at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0) [29]. - **Wholesale Price**: As of October 31, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.46 yuan per kilogram, down 0.07 yuan per kilogram from the previous week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.15 yuan per kilogram, down 0.11 yuan per kilogram from the previous week [33]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.07 yuan per kilogram, up 0.03 yuan per kilogram from the previous week [37]. - **Export Volume**: In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, with an export value of 69,178,601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled 600,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [41]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in a chart, but specific data is not described in text [42]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - **Stock Market - Honghui Fruit & Vegetable**: A chart shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable, but no specific analysis is provided [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.11%. The price of the December contract of US cotton also dropped, with a weekly decline of about 1.42%. The price of the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures decreased by about 0.13% [6][14][23]. - In the US cotton - growing areas, limited rainfall is beneficial for harvesting. The release of the monthly supply - demand report next week may guide the market. In the domestic market, the picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The commercial inventory is gradually rising, and the inventory of imported cotton has significantly increased. The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, but new orders are still limited [6]. - Overall, the pressure of new cotton listing is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton - textile exports, which also provides some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the US, limited rainfall in cotton - growing areas is good for harvesting. In China, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang have accelerated, and the commercial inventory is rising. The demand side indicates that the spinning profit has improved slightly, but new orders are limited. The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton and tariff reduction for exports provide support [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton, short - term observation is recommended [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the price change of foreign cotton, demand, and inventory [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.42% [14]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures also declined. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 113,261 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were - 91 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 3,013 sheets, and those of cotton yarn futures were 6 sheets [23][28][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.21 yuan/500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.5 yuan/500 grams. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,520 yuan/ton [42][45][57]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 6, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 14,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week; the quota price was 13,196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 yuan/ton from last week. The profit estimates of imported cotton with sliding - duty and quota were 724 yuan/ton and 1,624 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from last week [61][64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons from the previous month. The in - stock industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year [69][76]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [79]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90% [84][88]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - related Market - **Options Market**: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week, but no specific data is summarized in the text [89]. - **Stock Market**: There is a chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development, but no specific analysis is provided [92].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the freight index (European Line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2512 closed down 3.71%, and the far - month contracts had fluctuations ranging from - 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1208.71, down 104 points from last week, a 7.9% week - on - week decline, indicating weakened freight rate support [6][40]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur achieved positive results and improved the market's expectations for the trade war situation, the positive impact has not yet reached China's demand side. China's manufacturing PMI data in October declined seasonally, and the new export order index dropped significantly. In October, China's exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, far lower than the expected 3%, reflecting that the recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid [6][40]. - Mainstream shipping companies have issued price increase notices for November, and Maersk's price - holding in mid - to - late October was basically successful, boosting market confidence in the November price increase [6][40]. - The Middle East situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, is in a delicate and unstable stage, delaying the expected resumption of navigation in the Red Sea. The better - than - expected German economy has boosted market confidence and stimulated the economic recovery of the Eurozone. If the proposed fiscal expansion policy of the new German government has more specific details, it will enhance investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the Eurozone [6][40]. - Overall, although the trade war situation has improved and there is a turning point in geopolitical conflicts, it has not affected the trade side yet. China's export performance in October was poor, and freight rates lack support. With the arrival of the peak shipping season in the fourth quarter, the demand side may pick up. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [7][41] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the freight index (European Line) futures declined slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest decreased, and the market trading was cold. The specific price and trading volume data of each contract are as follows: EC2512 closed at 1812.00, down 3.71%; EC2602 closed at 1592.00, up 0.52%; EC2604 closed at 1164.60, down 1.05%; EC2606 closed at 1376.10, down 1.28%; EC2608 closed at 1499.20, up 0.42%; EC2610 closed at 1133.40, down 0.18%. The SCFIS index closed at 1208.71, down 7.9% [9][10][13] 2. News Review and Analysis - Positive news: China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including canceling some tariffs on US - made goods and other measures [20]. - Negative news: The US federal government's "shutdown" has reached 36 days, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about $14 billion in economic losses will be irreparable. Also, the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on China if China restricts rare - earth exports [20]. - Neutral news: A 2026 Federal Reserve voting member said that high inflation levels are not conducive to further interest - rate cuts, and the current reason for further policy action is not obvious [20] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the freight index (European Line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week. The export container freight rate index declined. Global container shipping capacity continued to increase, while European Line shipping capacity decreased slightly under the guidance of shipping company blank sailings. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [27][31][32] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints of the report, including the price trends of futures contracts, the impact of economic and trade consultations, the fundamentals of demand, the price - increase expectations of shipping companies, the geopolitical situation, market expectations, and investment suggestions [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the egg market oscillated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3,219 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 73 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. High production capacity pressure remains, which may limit the rebound space, so it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [6]. - The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. However, the slight rebound in the spot price of eggs may reduce the sentiment for culling old hens again. The inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and high - capacity pressure is still the main concern of the market [6]. - Short - term participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, eggs oscillated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3,219 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 73 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to continuous losses in the breeding end, the enthusiasm for replenishment has declined, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased. But the slight rise in egg spot prices may reduce the culling sentiment. The high inventory of laying hens in production is still a major concern, and high - capacity pressure may limit the rebound space of the futures price [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Participate in the short - term and focus on the number of old hens being culled [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 12 - contract of egg futures oscillated and closed higher. The position was 148,243 lots, a decrease of 28,338 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 7,153, compared with - 8,860 last week, and the net short position slightly decreased [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 6 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 144 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 142 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 97 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.06 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.74 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 507 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,236.47 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,040 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.42 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of October 31, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 8.22 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In September 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The raw material end shows that the rainy season in Guinea is ending, and the subsequent import volume of bauxite may recover, but the current supply is still tight and port inventories are slightly decreasing. Supply may gradually converge as high - cost enterprises face losses and carry out maintenance and production cuts. Demand is expected to increase steadily as the electrolytic aluminum industry is in the peak season, with strong aluminum prices and high production enthusiasm. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices [4][5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina, the raw material, is still abundant, with low prices. Aluminum prices are strong, increasing smelter profits and production enthusiasm. Domestic production capacity is approaching the industry limit, and supply is expected to remain stable. However, the traditional peak consumption season is ending, and downstream demand may decline, with inventory accumulating. It is recommended to lightly go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum, the raw material, is tight, and the price of casting aluminum auxiliary materials is rising, providing strong cost support. Supply may slow down due to raw material shortages. High aluminum prices have led to weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to lightly go short on the cast aluminum main contract at high prices [7]. - **Options Market**: Considering that aluminum prices may face pressure in the future and volatility may increase, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Alumina**: Go long on the main contract at low prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: Go short on the main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of November 7, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from October 31; LME Aluminum closed at 2,843 US dollars/ton on November 6, down 0.94% from October 31. Alumina futures were at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from October 31; cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,010 yuan/ton, up 0.99% [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.6 on November 7, down 0.25 from October 31. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,315 yuan/ton, down 1,395 yuan/ton [11][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Aluminum's open interest was 730,168 lots on November 7, up 17.44% from October 31. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 25,415 lots [17]. - **Spot Prices**: As of November 7, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,580 yuan/ton, up 1.31% from October 31 with a spot discount of 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy increased [25][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 6, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 548,375 tons, up 19.34% from October 30; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 565,000 tons, up 0.71% from October 30. As of November 7, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons, down 0.21% from the previous week [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons from the previous period. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% from the previous month but up 38.14% year - on - year [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year; the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% from the previous month but up 61.68% year - on - year; the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% from the previous month and 78.57% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 3.809 million tons, up 1.8% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.449 million tons, up 0.16% from the previous month and 2.11% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 0.52% year - on - year; the operating rate was 98.27%, up 0.16% from the previous month and down 1.53% year - on - year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, the production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year; the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 656,500 tons, up 3.25% from the previous month and 10% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 15.96% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year; the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year [63]. - **Real Estate**: In September 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 92.78, down 0.27 from the previous month and up 0.47 year - on - year. From January to September 2024, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, down 19% year - on - year; the completed housing area was 311.2888 million square meters, down 14.96% year - on - year [66]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to September 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year. In September 2025, Chinese automobile sales were 3,226,375 units, up 14.86% year - on - year; production was 3,275,802 units, up 17.15% year - on - year [69]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Due to expected pressure on aluminum prices and increased volatility, consider a double - buying strategy to bet on increased volatility [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continued its wide - range oscillation this week due to complex global macro - situations such as easing tariff tensions, ongoing US government shutdown, and weakened short - term expectations of Fed rate cuts. The US government shutdown provides bottom - line support for gold prices, but the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path and the potential end of the government shutdown may suppress the upward trend of gold prices. Precious metals are expected to resume a mild upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The recommended trading intervals are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract and 11000 - 11700 yuan/kg for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Situation**: The precious metals market continued to oscillate widely. The US government shutdown reached a record 38 days, providing support for gold prices. The overall PMI was dragged down by the manufacturing industry, the labor market was weakening, and the Fed's future rate - cut path was uncertain, which potentially suppressed the upward movement of gold prices. The high - level decline of the US dollar provided potential support for gold prices [8] - **Market Outlook**: Precious metals are expected to resume a mild upward trend in the short term, but the potential end of the US government shutdown may suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. Attention should be paid to the US October CPI data [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: COMEX silver rose 0.63% to $48.55 per ounce, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract rose 0.38% to 11484 yuan/kg. COMEX gold rose 0.06% to $4017.5 per ounce, while the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 921.26 yuan/gram [11] - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 6, 2025, SPDR gold ETF holdings remained basically the same as last week, and SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.5% [16] - **COMEX Positions**: Due to the US government shutdown, COMEX position data for precious metals was suspended. As of September 23, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 2.43%, and net positions increased by 0.13%. COMEX silver total positions increased by 1.75%, and net positions increased by 1.43% [17][21] - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai gold strengthened, while that of silver weakened. As of November 6, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.80 yuan/gram, and the silver basis was - 93 yuan/kg [22][24] - **Inventory**: COMEX precious metals inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory increased. As of November 6, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.04%, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2%, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.1% [31] 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - **Imports**: As of September 2025, China's silver imports increased by 19.17% month - on - month, while silver ore imports decreased by 13.19% month - on - month [37] - **Downstream Demand**: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise. As of September 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4371000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.90% [39][42] - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The silver market was in a tight - balance state. As of the end of 2024, industrial demand increased by 4% year - on - year, coin and net bar demand decreased by 22% year - on - year, and ETF net investment demand changed from - 37.6 million ounces to 61.6 million ounces. Total demand decreased by 3% year - on - year. The supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease from the previous period [48][52] 3.3.2 Gold Industry - **Price**: Affected by the gold tax policy, the prices of gold jewelry increased. As of November 6, 2025, the gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were 1256 yuan/gram, 1259 yuan/gram, and 1261 yuan/gram respectively. The Chinese gold recycling price was 910.80 yuan/gram, a 0.80% decrease from the previous period [54][58] - **Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, gold ETF investment demand increased significantly in Q3 2025. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in Q3, with a cumulative total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [60] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options (Macroeconomic Data) - **Dollar and Treasury Yields**: The US dollar index oscillated higher and then declined from its high this week, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield followed the trend of the US dollar [64] - **Yield Spread and Volatility**: The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, and the CBOE gold volatility continued to decline [68] - **Inflation - Balanced Interest Rate**: The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.28%, slightly lower than last week [71] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In Q3 2025, central banks around the world purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, reversing the downward trend at the beginning of the year. The cumulative net gold purchases from the beginning of the year to now reached 634 tons, still significantly higher than the level before 2022 [75][77]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, in the short - term, it is advised to adopt a volatile mindset. The US corn harvest is advancing, increasing supply pressure, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In the domestic market, there is a large supply, but rigid demand exists, and the expansion of China Grain Reserves Corporation's procurement has boosted the enthusiasm of traders. The corn futures price generally fluctuated and closed higher this week [10]. - For corn starch, in the short - term, it is also recommended to take a volatile approach. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the industry's operating rate is rising, increasing supply - side pressure. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. Starch futures also fluctuated and closed higher in sync with the corn market this week [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [9]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a closing price of 2149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Outlook**: By November 2, the US corn harvest was 83% complete. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will increase, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides support. In the domestic market, the main producing areas are in the stage of releasing sales pressure, with sufficient supply. Feed and deep - processing rigid demand exists, and the expansion of procurement by China Grain Reserves Corporation has boosted traders' enthusiasm [10]. - **Corn Starch**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [13]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly, with a closing price of 2462 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week [14]. - **Outlook**: With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw corn is abundant. The processing profit of enterprises has recovered, the industry's operating rate has continued to rise, and supply - side pressure has increased. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, up 1.00 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: - Corn futures' January contract closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a total position of 977019 lots, an increase of 45868 lots from last week [20]. - Corn starch futures' January contract closed higher in an oscillation, with a total position of 226082 lots, an increase of 14599 lots from last week [20]. - **Top Twenty Net Position Changes**: - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 118210, compared with - 79110 last week, with an increase in net short positions [26]. - The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 58773, compared with - 54866 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [26]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 66351 lots [32]. - The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12453 lots [32]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 87 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 138 yuan/ton [42]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was - 28 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period [48]. - The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 313 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 524 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2487.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 251.2 yuan/ton [62]. - In the 45th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 322 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply Side**: - **Inventory in North and South Ports**: As of October 31, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 42.5 tons, an increase of 15.50 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.7 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 102.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.6 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 71.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.20 tons [52]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of November 6, 2025, the total sales progress of domestic corn was 22%, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18%, a year - on - year increase of 3%; in North China was 20%, a year - on - year increase of 1%; in Northwest China was 42%, a year - on - year increase of 4% [64]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In September 2025, China's total corn imports were 56562.26 tons, a decrease of 256532.84 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 81.93%, and a month - on - month increase of 20404.55 tons from the previous month [68]. - **Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory Days**: As of November 6, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.88 days, an increase of 0.78 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.24%, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.89% [72]. - **Corn - Demand Side**: - **Pig and Breeding Sow Inventory Changes**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads year - on - year, a growth of 2.3%, and an increase of 12.33 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a growth of 2.9%. Among them, the breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 0.28 million heads year - on - year, a decrease of 0.7%, and a decrease of 0.09 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a slight decrease of 0.2% [76]. - **Breeding Profit Changes**: As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head [80]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprises' Profit Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 114 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 292 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 429 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 233 yuan/ton [84]. - **Corn Starch - Supply Side**: - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, a decrease of 1.13% from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47% [88]. - **Starch Enterprises' Operating Rate and Inventory**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 62.65 tons, an increase of 2.93 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.47 tons, an increase of 2.02 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.77%, an increase of 3.9% from last week. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons from last week, a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [92]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 7, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn, which closed higher in an oscillation, was 8.51%, a decrease of 0.64% from last week's 9.15%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, being at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as unclear Fed's December interest - rate cut direction, increased nickel resource supply cost, limited growth in refined nickel production, weak demand in the stainless - steel market, and rising domestic and overseas nickel inventories [7]. - The stainless - steel market faces supply pressure as production is expected to increase, while demand is lackluster, leading to a narrow increase in social inventory. It is expected to be in a downward trend [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary Nickel - **Weekly Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of - 0.95% and an amplitude of 1.92%. The closing price of the main contract was 119,440 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors are uncertain; on the fundamental side, supply cost rises, production growth is limited, demand has both positive and negative factors, and inventories are rising. Technically, the short - selling sentiment is strong [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds, paying attention to the pressure of MA10 [7]. Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: The stainless - steel market fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of - 0.71% and an amplitude of 1.62%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,565 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Raw material cost has decreased, supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and technically, the downward trend is obvious [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see or short on highs, paying attention to the downward - channel range [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Price Movement - As of November 7, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - As of November 7, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel, down 10 yuan/nickel from last week [13]. Basis - As of November 7, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,460 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 785 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai nickel remained stable, while that of stainless steel decreased [19]. Price Ratio - As of November 7, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.51, down 0.02 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.37 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week. The nickel - stainless - steel ratio fluctuated, and the tin - nickel ratio increased [26]. Net Long Positions of Top 20 - As of November 7, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel were - 32,039 lots, an increase of 4,648 lots from November 3; the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel were - 11,188 lots, an increase of 9,020 lots from November 3. The net long positions of Shanghai nickel were at a low level, while those of stainless steel rebounded [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: As of October 31, the nickel - ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1.4791 billion tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons from last week [37]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import**: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In September 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 28,570.87 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.97%; from January to September, the cumulative import volume was 187,185.981 tons, a year - on - year increase of 200.63% [41]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, an increase of 4,068 tons from last week; the LME nickel inventory was 253,104 tons, an increase of 21,474 tons from last week [48][49]. Demand Side - **Stainless - Steel Production and Trade**: In September 2025, the total stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. The import volume was 116,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons; the export volume was 348,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,800 tons. From January to September, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.067 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 231,900 tons [53]. - **Regional Inventories**: As of November 7, the 300 - series stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 292,241 tons, an increase of 5,015 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 570,765 tons, a decrease of 482 tons from last week [58]. - **Stainless - Steel Production Profit**: As of November 7, the stainless - steel production profit was - 121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week [62]. - **Downstream Industries**: - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%; real - estate development investment was 677.0571 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In September 2025, the air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.96%; the household refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; the household washing - machine production was 11.7849 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%; the freezer production was 2.5443 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5% [66]. - **Automobiles and Machinery**: In September 2025, the new - energy vehicle production was 3.276 million units, a year - on - year increase of 48%; the sales volume was 3.226 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. The excavator production was 31,608 units, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 26,215 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; the small - tractor production was 10,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1% [69].