Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber产区 is in the tapping season. In the Yunnan产区, continuous rainfall has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high - fluctuating. In the Hainan产区, increased precipitation has restricted tapping in some areas, leading to a month - on - month decrease in raw material output. Supported by the rise in futures and spot markets, some processors are more eager to purchase raw materials. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly last week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,150 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,755 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,620 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 985 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,913 lots, up 10,616 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55,758 lots, up 33,715 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,630 lots, down 4,018 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,519 lots, down 1,800 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 175,440 tons, down 840 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,840 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,055 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,170 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,670 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 173 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.45 days, up 0.81 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.05%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.22%, down 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 10 - 16, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is in a low - to - medium state, which has an increased impact on tapping operations. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which also has an increased impact on tapping operations [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory is 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao's natural rubber sample decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2500 in the short - term. Recently, the domestic methanol output has decreased slightly as the output from restored production capacity is less than the loss from maintenance and production cuts. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased, while the port inventory increased significantly. After the offset of various enterprise device operations, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly last week, but it is expected to decline this week due to the expected shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin device [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2389 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 96 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 372,761 lots, down 34,313 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 92,987 lots, up 3,094 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10,088, up 1,400 [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2365 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2092.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 272.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 24 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 269 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.08 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 64.2 tons, up 7 tons; in South China ports, it is 28.35 tons, up 4.71 tons. The import profit of methanol is 42.79 yuan/ton, up 2.8 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 293,700 tons, down 30,800 tons. The methanol enterprise's start - up rate is 81.61%, down 3.75 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 41.62%, down 1.67 percentage points; dimethyl ether is 5.33%, unchanged; acetic acid is 89.24%, down 2.16 percentage points; MTBE is 66.62%, down 1.17 percentage points; olefin is 83.89%, down 1.38 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 872 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 25.24%, down 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.39%, down 2.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.83%, down 1.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.82%, down 1.04 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw inventory increases. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons from the previous period, a 9.50% decline; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons from the previous period, a 4.37% increase. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.11%, a 1.5% increase [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The increase in the number of pigs sold by breeders puts pressure on the spot price. However, due to the policy - guided reduction in long - term supply pressure marginally, which provides more support for the far - month contracts, combined with the expectation of improved future demand, the futures price of the live hog 2511 contract performs stronger than the spot price, showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 14,140 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position is 62,301 lots, up 2,107 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, down 380 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 20,292 lots, down 998 lots [2]. Spot Market - The live hog prices in Henan Zhumadian, Guangdong Yunfu remain unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton and 15,300 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Jilin Siping rises 100 yuan to 13,100 yuan/ton. The main live hog basis is - 540 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, up 40,000 heads [2]. Industry Situation - The month - on - month CPI is 0.1%, up 0.2 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,394.9 yuan/ton, down 0.69 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 930.68, down 1.18; the monthly feed output is 27,621,000 tons, up 981,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 134.14 yuan/head, down 17.36 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs is 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.28 yuan; the monthly pork import volume is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, up 1390,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 1.294 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the daily national live hog output of key breeding enterprises was 275,875 heads, up 3.67% from Friday. The live hog 2611 contract closed flat on Monday. On the supply side, the rhythm of weight - reducing sales by breeders has accelerated recently, increasing market supply. The demand side has seen a slight increase in the slaughterhouse operation rate due to sufficient pig supply and partial demand recovery, but high temperatures still suppress pork purchasing willingness, limiting the recovery. The long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease marginally due to policy guidance, and the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking period [2].

Report Overview - Report Title: Caustic Soda Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 11 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Supply: There were both shutdown and restarted plants last week, with caustic soda capacity utilization rising 1.2% to 85.1%. Many plants in Northwest, East, and North China plan to conduct maintenance this week, which may lead to a slight decline in capacity utilization [3]. - Demand: Alumina industry's profit is considerable, with no planned production cuts and stable operation expected. Non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season, with weak rigid demand [3]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 8.84% to 46.17 tons last week, with high inventory pressure and lack of positive demand factors [3]. - Price: Shandong liquid caustic soda price may continue the weak trend. SH2509 is expected to trade in the 2400 - 2550 range in the short term; SH2601 still faces pressure, with technical support around 2450 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2492 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2595 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; and for May was 2678 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [3]. - The futures trading volume of caustic soda was 199224 lots, up 38925 lots; the futures open interest was 84552 lots, down 11648 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 15993 lots, up 2613 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu was 890 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 54 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu was - 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 1st to 7th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, up 1.2% week - on - week [3]. - As of August 7th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 46.17 tons (wet basis), up 8.84% week - on - week and 17.08% year - on - year [3]. - Last week, the alumina operating rate increased 0.15% to 85.73%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased 0.38% to 59.28% [3].

| | | 产商开工率下降；电子行业进入淡季，叠加美国计划对半导体征收关税。近期价格处于高位，抑制下游企 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业补库意愿，持货商亦有惜售情绪。现货升水维持至400元/吨，国内库存持稳。技术面，持仓低位，多空 交投谨慎，区间调整。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作，参考26.5-27.2。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 268380 | 600 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -230 | 60 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33605 | -230 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 24278 | -117 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On August 11, the silicon iron 2509 contract was reported at 5830, up 1.15%. After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The cost of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the overall demand for steel remains weak. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [3]. - On August 11, the manganese silicon 2509 contract was reported at 6100, up 1.09%. The steel industry has invested 1.2 trillion yuan in "capacity replacement" in the past decade. Production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 10.4 tons, and the downstream hot metal production is at a high level. Pay attention to the steel mill's tender price in August. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 6100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5830 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 622,609 lots, down 602 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 469,024 lots, up 6402 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 93,552 lots, up 1750 lots; the net position of the top 20 in silicon iron was - 27,363 lots, down 1945 lots [2]. - The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 98 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 180 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 75,707, down 338; SF warehouse receipts were 19,619, down 27 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5900 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The manganese silicon index average was 5833 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 200 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2]. - The SM main contract basis was - 200 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 448.9 tons, up 10.4 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 43.43%, up 1.25%; the silicon iron enterprise operating rate was 34.32%, up 0.56% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 195,825 tons, up 5005 tons; silicon iron supply was 109,100 tons, up 4700 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 161,500 tons, down 2500 tons; silicon iron manufacturer inventory was 7.17 tons, up 0.62 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; silicon iron inventory days in national steel mills was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon in five major steel types was 125,200 tons, up 1485 tons; the demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 20,266.3 tons, up 344.3 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15% [2]. - Crude steel production was 8318.4 tons, down 336.1 tons [2]. 4. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline remained at 3.6% [3]. - As of the 7th, the US trade - weighted average tariff rate on all global products rose to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year [3]. - US President Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Putin in Alaska on the 15th to discuss the Ukraine crisis [3]. - Beijing has further optimized housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy an unlimited number of houses outside the Fifth Ring Road [3]. - In the past year, at least a dozen provinces and cities have issued incentive policies or established state - owned asset M&A funds, which have transformed from "fund providers" to "industry integrators" [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The large - scale listing of Gala apples is slightly delayed, and the low inventory of old - crop apples boosts short - term apple prices. However, when Gala apples are listed later, the price increase rhythm may slow down. Technically, the 2510 contract should pay attention to the pressure at the 8200 yuan/ton integer mark. It is recommended to consider partially taking profits and exiting long positions at high prices and holding them with a light position [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 8127 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 82468 lots (a week - on - week increase of 2083 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1613 lots (a week - on - week decrease of 1299 lots) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week changes [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons), the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg), the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 8.22 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.09 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.02 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.01), and the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 10000 tons) [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars, and the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 5.92 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.73 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg), the average daily number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4 (a week - on - week increase of 1), at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 1 (a week - on - week increase of 11), and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16 (a week - on - week increase of 0.4) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 19.18% (a day - on - day increase of 0.04%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 19.19% (a day - on - day increase of 0.06%) [2] Industry News - On August 11, 2025, after rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples were good. It is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. Currently, most purchasers are waiting and watching, and the price is slightly weak. The low - priced bare - skinned Gala apples are selling well, priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, the trading of inventory apples is light, the trading of early - maturing bare - skinned Luli apples is smooth, and the prices are temporarily stable. On Monday, the 2510 contract of apples closed up 1.31%. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of August 6, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main national production areas is 53.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.02 million tons. The sales speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week and is basically the same as that of last year [2] View Summary - The inventory of old - crop apples is low, and the sales pressure is not large. The trading is priced according to quality, and the overall sales speed has slowed down. After rainfall in the western production areas such as Weinan, the coloring conditions for apples are good, and it is expected that a large number of red paper - bagged Gala apples will appear in four or five days. On August 5, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement on soliciting opinions on amending the "Detailed Rules for Fresh Apple Futures of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange", which may revise aspects such as delivery units, alternative delivery items, and packaging [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. Although the current supply is tight, downstream demand is weak, and there are expectations for quotas. Cotton is in the process of position transfer, and the cotton 2601 contract fluctuates around 13,850 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,790 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 24,791 lots, down 4,217 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are 97 lots, down 22 lots. - Cotton main - contract positions are 246,206 lots, down 14,590 lots; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 17,882 lots, up 829 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 8,172 lots, down 80 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 75 lots, down 8 lots [2] 现货市场 - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,178 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; China's yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,620 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,139 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,196 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 24,019 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - China's national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, and the national cotton output is 616 million tons, an increase of 54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,459 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 85 million tons, up 2.4 million tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 3 million tons, down 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 982 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. - The national commercial inventory of cotton is 282.98 million tons, down 62.89 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the grey - fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.779 billion meters, up 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 206.5 million tons, up 11.4 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,526,671,400 US dollars, up 168,897,700 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,204,820,700 US dollars, down 58,356,600 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.67%, down 1.11%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.67%, down 1.11%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 11.15%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.78%, unchanged [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton continued to decline. As of August 8, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 2.0067 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,400 tons (a decrease of 6.97%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.2819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129,200 tons (a decrease of 9.16%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 404,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons (a decrease of 1.61%). - Last Friday, the ICE cotton December contract rose 0.42%. On Monday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.47%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.15% [2] 提示关注 - There is no news today. In the next few days, the maximum temperature in Xinjiang will be relatively high. Pay attention to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with large fluctuations in lithium prices and a gradually improving industry outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the red column is expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a slightly bullish trend and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 4,040 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 128,116 hands, up 39,445 hands; the position of the main contract is 317,676 hands, down 3,030 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 2,000 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZFE is 18,829 hands/ton, up 2,386 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,440 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 780 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,250 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,448 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.15 million yuan/ton, up 0.13 million yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 126,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 7,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.59%, up 1.13 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.38%, up 1.21 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 119,052 contracts, up 24,224 contracts; the total put position is 52,618 contracts, up 21,765 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 44.2%, up 11.6617 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46, up 0.0566 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo mining end has determined to stop production, and relevant people said there is no short - term resumption plan. The national subsidy is directly sent to towns, and the first national event of the "Thousands of Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season of the Ministry of Commerce was launched in Xiaogan, Hubei on August 9, with a maximum subsidy of over 22,000 yuan. The "Big and Beautiful" bill stipulates that the US government will no longer provide tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30. In July, the sales volume of electric vehicles accounted for 9.1% of the total sales volume of all passenger vehicles in that month, setting a new high. In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, up from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with the same decline as the previous month [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11785 | 270 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 28088 | 2463 | | | 合成橡胶9-10价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 0 | -15 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | | | 11600 | 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11550 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 11600 | 0 | 11550 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -85 | -120 东(日,元/吨) | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北亚乙烯价格(日,美元/吨) | ...