Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is a fluctuation within the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2] - This week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased. The increase in transport vehicles and capacity in the northwest led to a decline in freight rates, reducing logistics costs and stimulating traders' enthusiasm for提货. The port inventory increased significantly after the lifting of restrictions, with complex demand situations in different regions. The olefin industry's overall开工 increased slightly this week, but is expected to decline next week due to the potential shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin plant [2] Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2388 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 109 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main contract's holding volume was 436,677 lots, down 17,842 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 93,108 lots, down 1723 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8688, down 60 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2380 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2110 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 8 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port was 270 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; CFR in Southeast Asia was 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 262 euros/ton, up 16 euros. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.09 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 64.2 tons, up 7 tons; at South China ports, it was 28.35 tons, up 4.71 tons. The import profit of methanol was 46.77 yuan/ton, up 2.97 yuan. The monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 293,700 tons, down 30,800 tons. The methanol enterprise's operating rate was 85.36%, up 1.38% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 43.29%, up 5.55%; dimethyl ether was 5.33%, up 0.14%; acetic acid was 91.4%, down 1.29%; MTBE was 67.79%, down 1.22%. The olefin operating rate was 85.27%, up 0.32%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 889 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 25.59%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 12.66%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 27.52%, down 2.85%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 12.66%, down 2.86% [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 92.55 tons, up 11.71 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 7.00 tons, and in South China by 4.71 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 29.37 tons, down 3.08 tons, a 9.50% decline. The sample enterprise's orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, up 1.01 tons, a 4.37% increase. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.11%, a 1.5% increase [2] Viewpoint Summary - Inland enterprise inventory decreased as transportation improved and freight rates dropped. Port inventory increased significantly after the lifting of restrictions, with different demand performances in different regions. The olefin industry's overall operating rate increased slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Although the import and export trade has improved marginally, there may still be pressure in the future. The market's focus has shifted to the semi - annual reports of listed companies. The net profit growth rates of the four broad - based indexes are all positive, and the improvement of the fundamentals of some listed companies supports the stock market. However, one should be vigilant about the drag on index performance from the profit decline of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. Also, with the high valuation of US stocks, A - shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) is at 4092.6, down 6.0; IH main contract (2509) is at 2797.8, down 0.4; IC main contract (2509) is at 6226.4, down 39.8; IM main contract (2509) is at 6750.0, down 20.4. The spreads between different contracts also show various changes, such as IF - IH monthly contract spread at 1309.4, down 2.4 [2] 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions are - 25,062.00, down 2115.0; IH top 20 net positions are - 15,581.00, down 274.0; IC top 20 net positions are - 14,395.00, down 1600.0; IM top 20 net positions are - 51,037.00, up 460.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is at 4114.67, up 1.2; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is at 2798.31, up 0.9; the CSI 500 index is at 6337.54, down 19.8; the CSI 1000 index is at 6862.15, up 0.8. The basis of each main contract also has corresponding changes [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 18,524.79 billion yuan, up 932.38 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 20,094.14 billion yuan, up 91.55 billion yuan. Other indicators such as north - bound trading volume, reverse repurchase, and main funds also show different trends [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares are at 4.50, down 2.00; the technical aspect is at 3.90, down 2.20; the capital aspect is at 5.00, down 1.80 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. In July, the total import and export value was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In July, exports in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year [2] 3.7 Market Performance - A - share major indexes closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has rebounded significantly for three consecutive days. Industry sectors also showed mixed performance [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. [2] - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the output of steel mills will increase in August. [2] - As the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there are optimistic expectations for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, and the market's purchasing willingness has recovered. [2] - Recently, the destocking of domestic stainless steel has been good, the market inventory pressure has been reduced, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,366 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 581; the position volume of the main contract is 81,584 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,462. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 423. [2] 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,600 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 220 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,300. [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 472.3; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 193,200. [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 920 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 26,900. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 40,700; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,300. [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500. [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 303.6432 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800, with a month - on - month increase of 1,000. [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,900; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000. [2] Industry News - Trump announced a 100% tariff on all imported products containing semiconductors, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US are exempted. [2] - The US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the basis of the existing tariffs due to the continuous differences in the US - Japan trade agreement. [2] - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [2] - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, but the production of nickel iron in Indonesia has rebounded. [2]

Report Main Points 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the nickel price is expected to have a wide - range short - term interval fluctuation. It recommends either temporary observation or interval operation, with a reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while Philippine supply recovers. Domestic nickel ore ports see a decline in inventory, and raw materials are tight. Refined nickel production slightly increases, stainless - steel production decreases, and new - energy vehicle production rises but battery demand is limited. Recently, the nickel price dropped, leading to increased downstream purchases, higher spot premiums, and a decline in domestic social inventory while LME inventory increased. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and the price stands above M60 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,850 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 200 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,130 dollars/ton, up 75 dollars. The main - contract position of Shanghai nickel is 81,103 hands, down 4,949 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,562 hands, down 753 hands. LME nickel inventory is 211,212 tons, down 240 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,750 tons, up 299 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,687 tons, down 102 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded - warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 300 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 207.28 dollars/ton, down 1.64 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, up 0.1932 million tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Indian media reports that Modi will visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, exempting companies building factories in the US like Apple and TSMC. The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to add a 15% tariff. Fed Governor Cook says the July employment report is "worrying" and may signal a turning point in the US economy [3]. 3.7观点总结 - The Indonesian government's policy restricts supply and raises costs, Philippine supply recovers, but domestic nickel ore ports' inventory declines. In July, leading smelters maintained stable production, some increased output, and new capacity is planned, increasing overall refined nickel production. Stainless - steel mills cut production due to profit compression, new - energy vehicle production rises but ternary - battery demand is limited. Recently, the nickel price dropped, leading to downstream purchases, higher spot premiums, and a decline in domestic social inventory while LME inventory increased. Technically, with falling positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and the price stands above M60, expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply situation of industrial silicon this week is complex. The resumption of production in the southwest production area is accelerating, and new production capacity is expected to be released next week. The reduction in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the northwest and southwest will gradually appear. There is a large potential for production capacity release, and a significant price rebound may trigger more idle capacity restart, increasing supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. The spot price of organic silicon is rising, the production profit is slightly declining, and the start - up rate is rising, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream demand has declined significantly. Although production increased slightly last week, the increase is limited, and subsequent capacity mergers and reorganizations are expected to intensify. Potential production capacity will be gradually released in August, with a slight increase in demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices decline, and they are in a passive de - stocking state, with little demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three downstream industries is still slowing down [2] - The main contract of industrial silicon has switched to 2511. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium and long term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; the position of the main contract is 224,390 lots, an increase of 1,5654 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 67,415 lots, a decrease of 1,089 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,580 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in September and October is - 15, an increase of 10 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 595 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,750 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, an increase of 5,500 tons; social inventory is 552,000 tons per week, an increase of 10,000 tons; imports are 2,211.36 tons per month, an increase of 71.51 tons; exports are 52,919.65 tons per month, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars per kilogram, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars per kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly start - up rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.08%, an increase of 4.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will conduct special energy - saving inspections on 41 polysilicon enterprises, and requires localities to report inspection results by September 30 [2] - The resumption of production in the southwest industrial silicon production area is accelerating, and new production capacity is expected to be released next week. The reduction in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the northwest and southwest will gradually appear [2]

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/8/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1229.50 | +8.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1667.50 | +23.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 915031.00 | +52616.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 53400.00 | +461.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -97157.00 | -2440.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -7122.00 | +338.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 142.50 | -4.50↓ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 76.50 | -11.50↓ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 800.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（ ...

红枣产业日报 2025-08-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 11115 | | 135 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 139332 | 5699 -6 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -19058 | 2603 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | | 9220 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1632 | 600 | | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6 | | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.6 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.2 | | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.5 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 10 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed - related industries, including futures, spot, upstream, industry, and downstream situations. It offers short - term trading suggestions for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil based on various factors such as supply, demand, and market trends [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and there is a seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the domestic market, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, and abundant vegetable oil supply restrain prices. However, the decrease in the oil mill operating rate and less rapeseed purchase in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The short - term trend is range - bound, and short - term participation is advised [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9496 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) was 669.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders also decreased. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed differently, with rapeseed oil unchanged and rapeseed meal increasing by 2753 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu remained unchanged at 6000 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.55 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil increased, and the spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged. The price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, while the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production prediction increased slightly, while the domestic rapeseed import quantity decreased by 15.1 tons to 18.45 tons. The import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 4 tons to 15 tons, and the import quantity of rapeseed meal increased by 7.56 tons to 27.03 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 5 tons to 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 1.59 percentage points to 16.52% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal and regional inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed. Coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 10.65 tons, and coastal rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 2.7 tons. The inventories in different regions such as East China and Guangxi also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the monthly social retail sales of catering also increased [2]. Key Points - **Market Trends**: The rapeseed futures in ICE closed slightly lower due to the lukewarm vegetable oil market and Canadian rainfall. The good condition of US soybeans and the high inventory of domestic soybean meal suppressed the price of rapeseed meal. The change in the weather in Canada and the possible resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia affected the supply of rapeseed [2]. - **Suggestions**: For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended due to the complex market situation and large price fluctuations [2]. - **Focus**: It is necessary to focus on the rapeseed operating rate and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 本报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/8/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,064.00 | -32.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,834.00 | -74.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 624,633.00 | -1924.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 465,608.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a short - term volatile and bullish pattern. Given the background of potential interest rate cuts by the FOMC this year, the overnight US dollar index and long - term US Treasury yields have corrected. Driven by the sentiment of gold - silver ratio repair, silver prices may show more resilience recently [3]. - If the CPI data in the next few months reflects the substantial impact of tariffs on inflation, gold prices may be boosted due to the increasing risk of economic stagflation in the US. Key data to watch include the US New York Fed inflation expectation index and last week's initial jobless claims data. A significant increase in jobless claims and rising inflation expectations may further intensify market concerns about economic stagflation and be beneficial to gold prices [3]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a strategy of buying on dips in the long term, while paying attention to risk control. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 785.02 yuan/gram, up 1.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 76 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 217,630 lots, up 2,418 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 378,070 lots, up 4,694 lots [3]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 170,427 lots, up 2,102 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 103,977 lots, up 7,502 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,045 kilograms (no change); the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,150,338 kilograms (no change) [3]. 现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 779.9 yuan/gram, with a basis of - 5.12 yuan/gram; the silver spot price is 9175 yuan/kilogram, with a basis of - 83 yuan/kilogram [3]. Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings are 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15,112.28 tons, up 67.81 tons [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 223,596 contracts, down 29,442 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 59,407 contracts, down 1,213 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11%, down 0.96%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.46%, down 0.02% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for gold is 18.56%, down 0.46% [3]. Industry News - **Tariff Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, making the total tariff rate reach 50%. The new 25% tariff will take effect in 21 days, and the first - round 25% tariff will take effect this Thursday. Trump also plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, but companies building factories in the US will be exempted [3]. - **Diplomatic Efforts**: Trump plans to meet with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky as early as next week to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3]. - **Fed's Stance**: Fed's Daly said that policy may need to be adjusted in the next few months. The labor market slowdown is unwelcome, and tariffs are unlikely to continuously push up inflation in a way that requires monetary policy intervention. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that the US economic slowdown may make short - term interest rate cuts appropriate, and he still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of this year [3].