| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1357 281 | -13 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -6 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1076 1000998 | -7 62018 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1053528 | -62488 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -353748 | -3042 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -242630 | 1430 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2812 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1943 | 243 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -90 | 1 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -144 | 4 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -17 | 92 | | | 玻璃基差 | 28 | 7 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1340 | 79 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1325 | -25 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the Apple 2510 contract closed up 0.43%. New - season apple production is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 6, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.02 million tons from last week, with a slightly slower shipment speed compared to last week and basically the same as last year. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the trading is priced according to quality, with an overall slowdown in shipment speed. Some early - maturing varieties' purchase prices are falling, while the opening price of Gala apples is acceptable. With the old - crop inventory still providing some support but a general trading atmosphere, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the Apple 2510 contract is expected to continue rising in the short term and has stood above the 20 - day moving average. It is recommended to trade with a light - position trial long, while controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract was 7940 yuan/ton, the main - contract holding volume was 73071 hands, the warehouse - receipt quantity was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1066 hands. The main - contract holding volume decreased by 1543 hands, and the net long position decreased by 712 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged, at 4 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production was 5128.51 million tons, the apple wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg (a weekly increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg (a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg) [2] Industry Situation - The national apple cold - storage total inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons from last week. The storage - capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples were 0.09 and 0.02 respectively, both decreasing by 0.01 from last week. The monthly apple export volume was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants was 0.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale prices of tangerines, bananas, and watermelons were 10.64 yuan/kg, 3.73 yuan/kg, and 5.92 yuan/kg respectively. The average wholesale price of bananas decreased by 0.08 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets were 7.4, 10, and 15.6 respectively, with an increase of 0.6 vehicles at the Jiangmen market and 1 vehicle at the Chalong market [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples were 20%, with decreases of 0.9% and 0.84% respectively [2] Industry News - On August 7, 2025, early - maturing Gala and Luli apples in the western production areas were on the market, with general purchasing enthusiasm from merchants and transactions priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, smooth - skinned Luli apples were gradually on the market, with chaotic prices due to fruit size and redness. The inventory of Fuji apples remained light in the market, with prices stable but weak [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand is relatively stable, and the industry outlook is gradually improving under policy guidance. For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage where supply remains high but the growth rate slows down, demand is weak due to the off - season, and inventory slightly accumulates. In the long term, the outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization. For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens in the off - season. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,211 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,621.50 US dollars/ton, up 56.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum all increased, with increases of 7,409 hands, 3,692 hands, and 362 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 1,150 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,900 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.14 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide, and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum all increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous increased by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum decreased by 595 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased by 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 52.40 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 4,084.65 tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 4 million tons, and the import volume increased by 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.50 million tons, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 5.20 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles, and the national real estate climate index decreased by 0.11 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons, and the built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days and 40 days decreased by 0.39% and 0.09% respectively [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0016%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0102 [2]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on policy adjustment and inflation. The central bank's net liquidity injection in July decreased compared with the previous month, and the retail industry's prosperity index in August increased [2]. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of the new energy market increased by 14% year - on - year [2].

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13670 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19705 | -5 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -25219 | 2288 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 74 | 52 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 272133 | -9339 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 15633 | 2151 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 8329 | -135 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 88 | 0 | | | | 15191 | 13 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20620 | -20 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) 59 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate is gradually decreasing and the demand is temporarily weak, but the outlook is positive. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,717 dollars/ton, up 41 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper decreased by 973 lots to 157,601 lots. LME copper inventory increased by 2,275 tons to 156,125 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,475 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan. The CU main contract basis was 40 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The output of refined copper was 130.20 million tons, up 4.80 million tons. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased by 100 yuan/metal ton [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.10%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.90%, down 0.21%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0026%, and the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.13, down 0.0606 [2] Industry News - Fed's Daly said policy may need adjustment in the coming months. Kashkari expected two rate cuts by the end of this year. In July, the central bank's net liquidity injection was 236.5 billion yuan. In August, the retail industry's prosperity index was 50.1%. In July, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 7% year - on - year [2]

白糖产业日报 2025-08-07 作上建议偏空交易为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5667 | -16 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 161306 | -11214 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 18615 | -187 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -18069 | -7033 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | | 进口加 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For corn, international corn prices are under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent - rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, factors such as import corn reserve auctions, falling international grain prices, and lower new - season corn costs lead to a pessimistic outlook on forward corn prices. The spot price is weak, and the corn futures price is generally bearish [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand imbalance is obvious. The resumption of operations of previously - overhauled enterprises increases supply pressure, while downstream demand is in the off - season. The inventory has increased, and the starch futures price has been oscillating weakly at a low level, also suggesting a bearish view [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2267 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and a decrease in the number of registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased. The CS - C spread of the main contract has decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, with a decrease in positions and unchanged registered warrants. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders has decreased [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 402 cents/bushel, with an increase in total positions and an increase in non - commercial net long positions [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2395.49 yuan/ton, with a slight increase. The flat - hold price at Jinzhou Port has decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The import cost has decreased slightly, and the international freight remains unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang remain unchanged. The basis of the main contract has decreased, and the spread between Shandong starch and corn has increased [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2437.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted yields of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged. The sown areas also remain stable [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports has increased, while that at northern ports has decreased. The inventory of deep - processing corn has decreased [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn has decreased, and the monthly export volume of corn starch has increased [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed has increased [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The consumption of deep - processing corn has increased, and the开机率 of alcohol and starch enterprises has increased [2]. - Processing profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong and Jilin has increased, while that in Hebei has decreased [2]. Option Market - The historical volatility of corn has changed slightly, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options has decreased [2]. Industry News - Analysts expect the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending July 31, 2025, to be between 150 and 290 tons. The Bystro Canal at the mouth of the Danube in Ukraine will reopen, which is expected to have a positive impact on grain exports and the shipping market. The excellent - rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the HC2510 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. With the rebound of steel prices, downstream demand weakened, but the macro - face outlook was positive, and there was cost - side support, so the market might fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward, and the red column was shrinking. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; HC main contract open interest was 1,428,587 lots, down 31,588 lots; HC contract top 20 net positions were - 75,167 lots, up 4,091 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 70,915 tons, unchanged; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 209 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil was 3,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil was 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil was 3,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; HC main contract basis was 60 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore was 773 yuan/wet ton, down 1 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; Hebei billet inventory was 1.1536 million tons, up 43,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output was 3.1489 million tons, down 79,000 tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 80.44%, down 2.02 percentage points; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 778,800 tons, down 14,200 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 2.7875 million tons, up 101,000 tons; domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; steel net export volume was 9.384 million tons, up 174,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production was 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles; automobile sales were 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles; air - conditioner output was 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units; household refrigerator output was 9.0474 million units, up 537,400 units; household washing machine output was 9.5079 million units, up 95,900 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, up 158,000 tons month - on - month, a 1.6% increase; from January to July, cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July, China's steel imports were 452,000 tons, down 18,000 tons month - on - month, a 3.8% decrease; from January to July, cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year decrease. The Passenger Car Association raised its full - year sales forecast for 2025, expecting 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% year - on - year increase, with the forecast volume 300,000 units more than the June forecast [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains flat this week, demand is gradually weakening, and with anti - involution speculation, it is advisable to place long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,997 dollars/ton, up 21.5 dollars. - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of Shanghai lead is 104,515 lots, down 720 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,323 lots, down 114 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,656 tons, unchanged. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory is 268,600 tons, down 4,375 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.88 dollars/ton, up 6.04 dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.49%, up 3.68%; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,100 tons, up 600 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. - The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,203.57 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,827.23 points, up 55.7 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 166,600. - The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump met with the CEOs of Bank of America and Citigroup at the White House to discuss "two - housing" related plans. - Regarding the US - Russia talks: ① Trump said the talks were fruitful, and there is a high possibility of a summit among Zelensky, Putin, and him. The three leaders may meet face - to - face as early as next week. ② Rubio said the decision on secondary sanctions against Russia will be made in the next 24 - 36 hours, and the Russian and US leaders may talk in a few days. - Regarding the Federal Reserve: ① Kashkari said it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two rate cuts this year are reasonable. ② Trump said the new Federal Reserve governor may be temporary, and the appointment will be announced in 2 - 3 days [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead smelters' operating rates increased due to the downward trend of lead prices, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead is still stronger than that of recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. - Recycled lead is currently affected by the tight supply of scrap battery raw materials, resulting in low confidence among smelters and tight overall supply. Due to cost inversion, the resumption of production is slow. - The price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of scrap electric batteries remained stable, with some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi raising the price by 50 yuan/ton. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season. But in reality, spot transactions are flat, and downstream enterprises are generally waiting and watching. The slow inventory digestion of dealers has greatly suppressed the battery factories' enthusiasm for production. If the downstream continues to wait and watch this week, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand will remain weak. - In terms of inventory, it has shown a slight upward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated widely. The global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but remaining above 50% for three consecutive months. The weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and apparent demand turned from decline to increase. Overall, steel mills have good profits, production enthusiasm has increased, the macro - expectation is positive, and with the strong operation of coking coal, there is cost - side support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,231.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,628,167 lots, down 24,402 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 59,090 lots, up 34,080 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 93,491 tons, up 4,235 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 209 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,487 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773.00 yuan/wet ton, down 1.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,090.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, down 0.56 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.22%, up 4.34 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1536 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2118 million tons, up 101,200 tons. The capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 48.49%, up 2.22 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.682 million tons, up 60,500 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8848 million tons, up 43,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons. The net export volume of steel products was 938,400 tons, up 17,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - According to customs data on August 7, in July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 452,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The actual rebar output this period was 2.2118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,500 tons; the social inventory was 3.8848 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,400 tons; the total inventory was 5.5668 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 103,900 tons; the apparent demand was 2.1079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 73,800 tons [2].