| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 775.50 | -7.00↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 547,754 | +12824↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 19.5 | -2.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -13848 | +7076↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,000.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.75 | -1.30↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 854 | -2↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 852 | -1↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 757 | -8↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 77 | +6↑ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 105.85 | -1.55↓ 江苏废钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International corn market maintains low - level volatile as US corn supply pressure increases with harvest progress, but market expects US corn yield to be lower than USDA's previous forecast; domestic corn prices show a slight rebound in Northeast due to improved storage, farmers' reluctance to sell, and traders' positive actions, while in North China and Huanghuai, market is more stable with slow sales and low - level arrival at deep - processing enterprises. Corn futures prices maintain low - level consolidation, and short - term observation is recommended [2] - Corn starch faces cost support decline due to increased new - season corn supply, and still has market demand squeezed by cassava starch; however, industry operation rate is lower than usual, and with good order fulfillment, enterprise inventory has slightly decreased. Starch futures move in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2135 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 2 yuan, and corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 9 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 927070 lots, down 479 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 213454 lots, down 2229 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 87776 lots, down 1588 lots; for corn starch, net long positions are - 63035 lots [2] - Registered warrants for yellow corn are 66351 lots, and for corn starch are 12453 lots, unchanged [2] - The spread between the main CS and C contracts is 340 yuan/ton [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 434.75 cents/bushel, up 3.75 cents; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn is 2234.31 yuan/ton, up 0.58 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn is 1981.94 yuan/ton, up 0.67 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis of the main corn starch contract is 57 yuan, down 13 yuan; basis of the main corn contract is 99.31 yuan, up 6.58 yuan [2] - Spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 614 yuan, up 52 yuan; spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly) is 291 yuan, down 7 yuan [2] - Spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 234 yuan, up 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US is 427.11 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 36.44 million tons, up 0.55 million tons [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil is 131 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 22.6 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina is 53 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 7.5 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in China is 295 million hectares, and forecasted yield is 44.3 million tons, unchanged [2] - Forecasted yield of corn in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2] - Corn inventory at southern ports is 60.7 million tons, up 49.3 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory is 282.7 million tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports is 108 million tons, and starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.8 million tons, down 1.2 million tons [2] Industrial Situation - Monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and monthly export volume of corn starch is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly output of feed is 3128.7 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong is 64 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - Sample feed corn inventory days are 24.1 days, up 0.06 days; corn starch processing profit in Hebei is 132 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption is 135.32 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Jilin is 114 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operation rate is 68.42%, and starch enterprise operation rate is 58.86%, up 3.24 percentage points [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.32%, up 0.13 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.53%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.1%, down 0.31 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.1%, down 0.31 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of October 30, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 60%, compared with 55% a week ago and 59% in the same period last year [2] - For the week ending October 30, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume is 1668781 tons, compared with 1242451 tons last week and 800209 tons in the same period last year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures closed higher on Monday, with the support from optimistic demand expectations outweighing the stronger dollar. The December ICE cotton futures contract rose 0.14 cents, or 0.20%, to settle at 65.68 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang is accelerating. In the northern region, cotton picking is in the later stage, while in the southern region, it is still in the large - scale picking period. Due to drought and high - temperature in some southern areas, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price is rising. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected. As the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, the cost of new cotton is solid, which supports the cotton price, but the price is pressured by supply. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate weakly [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13535, down 65; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19795, down 125 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 109127, up 11097; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 89, down 219 [2]. - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 567827, down 6089; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 24848, up 677 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2570, up 76; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 6, up 2 [2]. 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 14841, down 18; China Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 20520, up 0.24 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13263; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 21217 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14142; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 22568, up 26 [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5679, up 18; industrial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 86.1, down 0.9 [2]. - Cotton: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 10, up 3; cotton yarn: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130000, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 739, down 1; commercial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 102.17, down 46 [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 25.24, up 0.39; inventory days: grey cloth (monthly, days): 31.43, up 0.31 [2]. - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 28.11, up 1.1; output: yarn: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 207.38, up 4.59 [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 1245324.7, down 169265.7; monthly textile yarn, fabric and products export value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 1196651.6, down 42668.6 [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 7.79, up 1.52; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 8.07, up 1.8 [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 6.72, down 0.88; cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 7.72, down 0.04 [2]. Industry News - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released the latest data showing that the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.3996 million tons (last month's forecast was 25.4386 million tons), and the production forecast for the 2024/26 season is 25.3912 million tons. The global cotton consumption forecast is 25.0077 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The ending inventory forecast is 16.2279 million tons (last month's forecast was 15.3787 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The ending inventory forecast for the 2024/25 season is 15.8358 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, the bearish sentiment is rising, and the lower limit of the range is being tested. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,700 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai nickel is -240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,115 dollars/ton, down 135 dollars; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,460 lots, up 9,789 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is -31,010 lots, up 3,503 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 252,750 tons, up 648 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 36,751 tons (weekly), up 676 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,426 tons, unchanged [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 30,952 tons, down 254 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,100 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -211.5 dollars/ton, down 6.66 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,479.1 million tons (weekly), down 18.81 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0853 billion tons, up 0.2112 billion tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 billion tons, up 24.8 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 580,800 tons, up 4,100 tons [3]. Industry News - Lan Fo'an stated that the package debt resolution plan should be further implemented, and the replacement of local government's existing implicit debts should be done well. Not adding new implicit debts is regarded as an "iron - clad discipline", and a unified long - term supervision system for local government debts should be established [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October did not rise as expected but fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation [3]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that the Fed's policy is too tight and a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts should be made to achieve a neutral interest rate [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - level, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in October declined instead of rising, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. On the fundamental level, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic - trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [3]. - At the smelting end, newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - end pressure, some smelters are suffering losses and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel output is expected to be limited [3]. - On the demand side, stainless steel mills show the characteristic of a weak peak season, but with the decline of nickel iron cost, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the planned output is expected to increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3]. - Domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, and the market mainly purchases as needed, with the spot premium rising; overseas LME inventory also shows an increase [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Technically, the decline in positions and price corrections indicate a decrease in the bullish sentiment. It is recommended that previous long positions be held with caution, and attention should be paid to the support levels at 280,000 and 282,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 283,730 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan; the 12 - 1 - month contract closing price is -330 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,915 US dollars/ton, down 265 US dollars. - The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 34,378 lots, down 2,184 lots; the net holding of the top 20 futures is -1,790 lots, down 118 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 2,850 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,919 tons, up 153 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,976 tons, up 246 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 285,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is -360 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 74 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 273,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 277,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, up 3.1 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Blue Fuan stated that the government will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. - Fed Governor Milan believes that Fed policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 24th to 30th, styrene production and capacity utilization decreased, downstream consumption declined slightly, and plant and port inventories decreased but the inventory pressure remained high. Non - integrated process costs decreased and profits improved. This week, the impact of shutdown devices is expected to expand, and production and capacity utilization are expected to continue to decline. Downstream devices have the expectation of increasing load, which may deepen the short - term tight balance of ethylene supply and demand, but the positive impact on supply - demand improvement under high inventory pressure is limited. The integrated profit of styrene is close to the break - even line, indicating low valuation. EB2512 should pay attention to the support around 6300 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active futures contract for styrene was 6354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92 yuan; the trading volume was 515,106 lots, an increase of 185,190 lots; the 1 - month contract closing price was 6391 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan. The long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 440,755 lots, the net long - position volume was - 16,621 lots (an increase of 5749 lots), the short - position volume was 457,376 lots (a decrease of 3905 lots), the open interest was 401,028 lots (a decrease of 12,549 lots), and the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots (a decrease of 74 lots) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6752 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB Korea was 795 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars; CFR China was 805 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6175 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 6390 yuan/ton, and 6460 yuan/ton respectively, with the South China price increasing by 20 yuan/ton and the others remaining unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 741 dollars/ton, 731 dollars/ton, 664 dollars/ton, and 457 dollars/ton respectively, with the US Gulf price decreasing by 6 dollars/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the market prices in South, East, and North China were 676 dollars/ton, 5450 yuan/ton, 5420 yuan/ton, and 5230 yuan/ton respectively, with the East and North China prices increasing by 70 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 66.72%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the national inventory was 186,036 tons, a decrease of 10,231 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 109,800 tons, a decrease of 11,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 62.24% (an increase of 0.26 percentage points), 72.1% (a decrease of 0.7 percentage points), 52% (a decrease of 1.8 percentage points), 35% (an increase of 1 percentage point), and 66.71% (a decrease of 3.86 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, styrene production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 323,400 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.53% week - on - week to 66.72%. Downstream EPS, PS, and ABS consumption decreased by 0.18% week - on - week to 271,500 tons. As of October 30th, the styrene plant inventory was 186,000 tons, a decrease of 5.21% week - on - week. As of November 3rd, the East China port inventory was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 7.10% week - on - week; the South China port inventory was 27,900 tons, a decrease of 10% week - on - week. From October 24th to 30th, non - integrated costs decreased to 6860.06 yuan/ton, and non - integrated device profits improved to - 400 yuan/ton. EB2512 fell 1.99% to close at 6354 yuan/ton last week. Some devices such as Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton and Zhongwei Guangdong's 800,000 - ton plants were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in styrene production and capacity utilization [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11685 | -50 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 146297 | 1618 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 185 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -33782 | -3579 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12000 | -300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12100 | -200 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 12700 | -300 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 315 | -250 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 43680 | 1233 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4035 | -3 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.3 | 0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 3050 | 10 | | 玉米现货价 | | 22 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In early October, the progress of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil slowed down significantly, indicating a weakening production rhythm in the later stage of crushing [2]. - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is 174,500 tons, and the import volume is expected to decrease month - on - month. Affected by news such as syrup and premixed powder, there is support at the lower level. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position is 368,822 lots, a decrease of 3,969 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,432, a decrease of 30; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 49,848 lots, an increase of 2,894 lots [2]. - The total forecast of valid warehouse receipts for sugar is 1,586, an increase of 1,000 [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,057 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,139 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,502 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 334 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.52%, an increase of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.32%, an increase of 0.08% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.46%, an increase of 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, a decrease of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a total of 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started crushing, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.22 cents, or 1.50%, to settle at 14.65 cents per pound. The sugarcane harvest in northern Brazil is progressing slowly, while sugar mills in the central - southern region are still gradually shutting down [2]. - In the first half of October 2025, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year [2]. - As of October 16 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (April 2025 - March 2026), the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 524.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a long - position strategy. The zinc ore import volume has increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have been lowered, and sulfuric acid prices have dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits and restricted growth in refined zinc output. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, and there are some bright spots in the automotive and home appliance sectors due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, domestic inventory accumulation has slowed, LME inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise signals a strong long - position sentiment, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract price spread of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,108 dollars/ton, up 58 dollars. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 225,814 lots, up 4,126 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 12,756 lots, up 1,900 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 68,197 tons, up 548 tons. The SHFE inventory is 103,416 tons, down 5,752 tons; the LME inventory is 33,825 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,580 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,720 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 130.71 dollars/ton, up 45.14 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,080 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social zinc inventory is 162,200 tons, down 1,200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The newly started housing area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the completed housing area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.49%, up 0.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.42%, up 0.19% [3] 3.7 Industry News - China will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. A Fed governor believes that the Fed's policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week is 9,348 tons, an increase of 245 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 120.78%. In the sales area market, the price in the Hebei market has been slightly reduced, and customers are picking and making small - volume transactions. The price acceptance is currently average. It is expected that the production area will enter the centralized harvesting stage in early November. Attention should be paid to changes in the enthusiasm and volume of customer purchases. In terms of operation, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 9,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan; the position of the main contract is 178,928 lots, an increase of 69 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,805 lots, a decrease of 5,679 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of red dates in various regions are as follows: the price of general - grade red dates in Kashgar is 7.35 yuan/kg, with no change; the wholesale price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei is 4.7 yuan/jin, with no change; the price of general - grade red dates in Alar is 0 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade gray dates in Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin, with no change; the price of general - grade red dates in Aksu is 6.65 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 10.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.6 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory this week is 9,348 tons, an increase of 245 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,283,671 kg, a decrease of 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 23,548,402 kg, an increase of 2,283,671 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative quarterly year - on - year production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 3 trucks arrived at the parking area. The reference prices for the arrived goods are: special - grade 10.50 yuan/kg, first - grade 9.40 yuan/kg, and second - grade 7.60 - 8.20 yuan/kg. There are many customers looking at and purchasing goods in the market. Combined with the prices, old stock is more popular than new stock. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks of new - season products arrived. The reference prices for the arrived new - season products are: special - grade 12.80 yuan/kg, second - grade 9.80 yuan/kg. The market acceptance of new goods is average, and customers purchase according to their needs. The prices of old - stock special - grade and first - grade are 12.00 yuan/kg and 10.80 yuan/kg respectively, and customers pick and buy [2]. - Xinjiang merchants have high enthusiasm for purchasing, actively finalize orchards and trees, and actively ship the harvested goods to the inland. The number of price - setting sales by futures - cash companies has increased, and some customers are actively purchasing old - season goods [2].