Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a destocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market. The demand side shows characteristics of the off - season in the textile industry, with low profitability and a decreasing operating rate of spinning enterprises. The new cotton planting area has increased, but there are high - temperature risks in some areas of Xinjiang. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, demand is weak, and the upward momentum of the market is gradually weakening. The cotton 2509 contract has recently declined, showing an adjustment trend. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,995 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 27,006 hands, an increase of 6,225 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 264 hands, an increase of 293 hands. - The main contract positions of cotton were 413,662 hands, a decrease of 55,334 hands; those of cotton yarn were 7,641 hands, a decrease of 1,770 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 9,156 sheets, a decrease of 70 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 91 sheets, unchanged. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,721 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,116 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,430 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,994 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,140 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,179 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 16.15%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 16.14%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.65%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% the previous week and 49% the same period last year. - On Monday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.1%, the cotton 2509 contract fell 1.87%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 1.91%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Situation**: On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The U.S. soybean good rate is at a high level in the same period, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks are ongoing, and the market is closely watching whether a trade agreement can be reached [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the domestic market, the high probability of oil mills operating and the continuous inventory accumulation of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in pig inventory and the government's emphasis on reducing the use of soybean meal, which reduces the demand expectation. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases brings support to the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand for rapeseed meal provides some support. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in July 1 - 25, which restricts palm oil prices. However, the significant increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the U.S. and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In the domestic market, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts market prices. But the decrease in the oil mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure. Supported by the strengthening of soybean oil, rapeseed oil prices rose synchronously, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9492 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 696.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3.4 Canadian dollars; and the active contract of rapeseed is 5140 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (9 - 1) is 50 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (9 - 1) is 281 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 134 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 196655 lots, down 4683 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 453220 lots, down 15106 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 19614 lots, up 3865 lots; for rapeseed meal are 19712 lots, down 5128 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9540 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the average price is 9580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.52 yuan/ton, down 32.85 yuan [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8920 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Price Differences**: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The oil - meal ratio is 3.63, up 0.02 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed in some regions is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79%. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 185 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.55 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons. In the East China region, rapeseed oil inventory is 56.27 million tons, down 2.18 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 33.41 million tons, down 1.72 million tons. In the Guangxi region, rapeseed oil inventory is 5.55 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; in the South China region, rapeseed meal inventory is 26.1 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.27 million tons, up 0.36 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 3.43 million tons, up 1.11 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The current - month total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.53%, up 0.66%; that of at - the - money put options is 24.53%, up 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.04%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.48%, down 0.04% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.79%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.15%, down 0.57%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.14%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.28%, up 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 4.90 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 695.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of U.S. soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year. The good rate of U.S. soybeans is still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government. However, the production capacity of nickel iron in Indonesia has been accelerating, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing pressure of cost - price inversion and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. In addition, domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and the production of stainless steel is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased uncertainty in the macro - market and still existing pressure on export demand, downstream buyers are hesitant and have a poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The destocking of domestic inventories is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the destocking performance brought about by subsequent production cuts [2]. - Technically, the trading volume and open interest are decreasing, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the M10 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,920 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 33,195 lots, with a daily increase of 1,484 lots. The open interest of the main contract is 103,270 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,143 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,296 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 150 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,450 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, with a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, with an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, with a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 28, local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [2]. - The US Treasury Department announced on Monday that it expects to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in net terms in the third quarter, more than $45 billion higher than the estimate announced in April. Excluding the impact of a lower cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, it is $6 billion higher than the April expectation [2]. - US President Trump said that the United States has reached a tariff agreement with the European Union at a 15% tax rate. He also said that the EU will increase its investment in the United States by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of a decrease in urea production is high. Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only limited local agricultural top - dressing demand and weak rigid support. As the autumn fertilizer production stage is approaching, the industrial demand for compound fertilizers leads to appropriate low - price purchases, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is rising steadily. However, due to the high - temperature and high - humidity weather, some production is still restricted. Recently, domestic urea demand is weak, and the overall order - taking and shipment of urea factories have slowed down. Although the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continues to decline but at a narrowing rate due to some goods being in the process of export collection, short - term collection is still ongoing, and some enterprise overhauls will reduce the inventory level to a certain extent, but weak domestic demand will affect the overall inventory reduction amplitude. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1730 - 1800 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1744 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 26 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 152,980 lots, down 144 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,093 lots, down 5234 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 2900 sheets, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui have decreased, with Hebei, Henan, and Shandong down 20 yuan/ton, and Anhui down 30 yuan/ton. The price in Jiangsu is down 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 430 US dollars/ton and 425 US dollars/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 16 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.3 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 85.88 million tons, down 3.67 million tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 83.59%, down 0.87%; the daily urea output is 193,500 tons, down 2000 tons. The urea export volume is 7 million tons, up 7 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 33.58%, up 1.03%; the operating rate of melamine is 65.2%, up 0.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 104 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 499 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.1682 billion tons, down 0.6408 billion tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,400 tons, up 500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 85.88 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.67 million tons, or 4.10%. As of July 24, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons, or 0.37%. As of July 24, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3547 billion tons, a decrease of 0.014 billion tons from the previous period, or 1.02%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period [3] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 29, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 6110, up 3.52%. The Ningxia silicon - iron spot price was reported at 5750, up 80 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will speed up reform, strengthen governance of key industries, and force out backward production capacity. With low - level operation of开工, falling cost of Ningxia semi - coke, and weak overall steel demand expectation, the ferro - alloy production profit is negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as oscillating [2] - On July 29, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 6212, up 2.78%. The Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon spot price was reported at 5900, up 100 yuan/ton. Manganese - based leading enterprises held a seminar to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and supply may decline. The manufacturer's operating rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, with moderately high inventory. The imported manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end increased by 210,000 tons, and the downstream molten iron output is high. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 90 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 140 yuan/ton. This month, the steel mill's procurement price has rebounded compared with the tender price. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as oscillating strongly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1120.50 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1633.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 yuan [2] - JM futures contract open interest was 766164.00 lots, down 4719.00 lots; J futures contract open interest was 51893.00 lots, down 464.00 lots [2] - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts was - 88934.00 lots, down 1951.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts was - 4147.00 lots, up 1177.00 lots [2] - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 94.00 yuan/ton, up 14.50 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 57.50 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan [2] - JM warehouse receipts were 0.00; J warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal price was 1013.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1555.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Russian prime coking coal forward spot price (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, down 3.50 US dollars; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal price was 1420.00 yuan/ton, down 180.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal price was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal price was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 78.00 yuan/ton, down 24.50 yuan [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 279.50 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110 coal washing plants' raw coal inventory was 292.53 million tons, down 6.16 million tons; 110 coal washing plants' clean coal inventory was 175.61 million tons, down 15.93 million tons [2] - 110 coal washing plants' operating rate was 62.31%, down 0.54 percentage points; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2] - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; 523 coking coal mines' average daily raw coal output was 194.70 million tons, up 1.90 million tons [2] - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; 18 ports' coke inventory was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2] - Independent coking enterprises' total coking coal inventory was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; independent coking enterprises' coke inventory was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2] - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; 247 steel mills' coke inventory was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2] - Independent coking enterprises' available days of coking coal were 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; 247 steel mills' available days of coke were 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2] - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2] - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, up 0.44 percentage points [2] - Independent coking plants' profit per ton of coke was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2] 3.4 National Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel mills' blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2] - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - On July 28, the National Defense General Headquarters upgraded the flood - control level III emergency response for Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. Affected by rainfall, all suburban railways in Beijing were suspended on July 29 [2] - On July 28, the Inaugural Meeting of the Hebei Iron and Steel Industry Environmental Performance Specialized Committee was held in Shijiazhuang. Currently, 56 in - production iron and steel enterprises in Hebei have achieved full Class A environmental performance creation, and the committee aims to strengthen industry self - discipline [2] - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative, opposing low - price disorderly competition and below - cost dumping [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further deepen reforms, promote the implementation of reform tasks, and strengthen the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polysilicon market continued to rebound today, mainly due to the continued price increase by leading silicon wafer manufacturers. However, there was little action from downstream photovoltaic modules, resulting in poor transmission in the industrial chain. With potential supply increases, uncertain demand growth, and considering policy and macro - economic factors, it is recommended to temporarily observe or consider laying out put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,805 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan; the main position volume was 140,638 lots, up 4,343 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 41,455 yuan/ton, up 965 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 2,905 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the spot price was 9,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream**: The monthly output of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, up 4.34 [2]. 3.2 Industry News The market price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise. With the increase in polysilicon prices and positive industry policy signals, the market expected silicon wafer prices to rise. Downstream battery enterprises began to accept price - increased orders, prompting silicon wafer manufacturers to raise prices. Leading enterprises raised their quotes, with 183N rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN to 1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N to 1.55 yuan/piece [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the production capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. Although there is no significant change in recent production data, a potential supply increase trend is emerging [2]. - **Demand**: The demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry decreased slightly, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials increased, indicating that the wait - and - see sentiment of silicon wafer enterprises is being digested. However, photovoltaic module manufacturers are pressing down on prices when purchasing polysilicon due to the price war, and the demand - side support is insufficient. Next week, if the new quotes of silicon wafer enterprises can be implemented, it will stimulate the demand for polysilicon; otherwise, the growth of polysilicon demand will be limited [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Currently, the egg-laying hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from newly opened egg-laying hens that were replenished earlier, resulting in sufficient egg supply. However, due to the continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg-laying rate of hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. Coupled with the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the sentiment of farmers hoping for price increases has been released, which has driven the egg price to rebound from a low level. From a futures perspective, affected by the bearish sentiment in the commodity market and the high inventory, the near - month contracts are weakly adjusted, while the far - month contracts are significantly more resistant to decline, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3,576 yuan per 500 kilograms, with no change from the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 37,023 hands, an increase of 891 hands [2]. - The monthly spread (9 - 1) of egg futures is - 67 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 11 yuan. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 250,165 hands, a decrease of 1,151 hands [2]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 3 hands, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.26 yuan per catty, with no change. The basis (spot - futures) is - 317 yuan per 500 kilograms, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.02. The national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59 [2]. - The average price of egg - laying chicken seedlings in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan per chick, with no change. The national new chick index is 76.07 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71 [2]. - The average price of compound feed for egg - laying hens is 2.72 yuan per kilogram, with no change. The breeding profit per egg - laying hen is - 0.06 yuan, an increase of 0.41 yuan [2]. - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 11.28 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 1.68 yuan. The national culling age of chickens is 501 days, a decrease of 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.5 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.42 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.02 yuan [2]. - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.33 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.11 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, with no change [2]. - The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 8,032 tons, an increase of 146 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.37 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.98 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.20 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.44 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The current egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure from newly opened egg - laying hens that were replenished earlier is significant, resulting in sufficient egg supply. However, due to continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure [2].

铝类产业日报 2025/7/29 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,615.00 55.00 | -145.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 0.00 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,243.00 28.00 | -185.00↓ +3.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 285,172.00 | -16798.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating a plan to enhance the matching of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased this period, while the arrivals decreased. The domestic port inventory continued to rise, but the year - on - year decline widened. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the pig iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons, so the demand support still exists. Overall, the expectation of the meeting fermented, and the sharp rise in steel prices supported the increase in furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA form a golden cross at a low level, and the green column shrinks. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 798 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the trading volume was 482,200 lots, down 7,237 lots; the spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 27.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 13,772 lots, up 12,027 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,400 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 102.7 US dollars/ton, up 1.91 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 728 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 5 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.10 US dollars/ton, down 2.50 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.41, unchanged; the estimated import cost was 824 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 32.009 million tons, up 0.918 million tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 23.197 million tons, down 1.921 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, up 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, up 0.6306 million tons; the iron ore imports (monthly) were 105.95 million tons, up 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, up 2 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, up 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, up 0.68 percentage points; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, down 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 2,226, down 31 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.68 US dollars/ton, up 0.14 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.18 US dollars/ton, down 0.24 US dollars; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 21.76%, down 0.38 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.66%, down 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.45%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 22.91%, up 1.13 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.918 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.039 million tons. The Australian shipments were 18.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.302 million tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.068 million tons. The Brazilian shipments were 8.964 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.262 million tons [2] - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.921 million tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 11.573 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.319 million tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall production of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, but the total demand from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down. Today, the spot price of industrial silicon dropped significantly, and the futures price declined in the early session but was significantly pulled up by polysilicon. It is expected to remain under pressure in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the position of the main contract was 276,734 lots, down 2,334 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX were 49,710 lots, down 66 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was -45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 450 yuan/ton, down 585 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - The Sichuan Ferroalloy (Industrial Silicon) Industry Association issued a joint initiative against involution in industrial silicon, advocating selling products at no less than the full - cost price, resisting low - price bidding and vicious competition. The supply situation of industrial silicon this week is complex. In the Ili region of the northwest, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in Baoshan is active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong fails to meet expectations. In Sichuan, manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants to ensure supply, and the overall operating rate does not increase significantly [2]. Demand Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has increased due to a monomer plant fire, and the production profit has risen, while the operating rate has declined, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic is against involution, demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to increase, prices rise, and it is in a passive destocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].