| | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/7/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1468.700 -6.7↓ EC次主力收盘价 1738 | | +3.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -269.30 -63.30 | | +5.70↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 -2.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | 847.86 -8.70↓ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 54874 4148↑ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2316.56 1,284.01 -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | -17.80↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1592.59 -54.31↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | | -0.02↓ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1261.35 -42.19↓ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,787.24 | | -16.18↓ | | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has shown a slight accumulation trend recently, with the bonded area maintaining de - stocking and the general trade warehouse showing inventory accumulation. Overseas goods arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remain relatively low, but the overall outbound volume is less than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude. In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was less than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term overhaul plans from the end of July to early August. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 15,010 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 12,670 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai Rubber was - 785 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 2,340 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 10,456 lots to 108,879 lots, and that of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber decreased by 3,308 lots to 51,979 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber was - 27,577, an increase of 848; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 10,611, an increase of 732. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 100 tons to 181,920 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 1,209 tons to 38,808 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was - 365 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,971 yuan/ton, down 384 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 301 yuan/ton, down 244 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.11 Thai baht/kg, down 0.44 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 50 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.61%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.59%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 39%, up 1.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 38.99%, up 1.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 27th to August 2nd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on rubber tapping. As of July 27th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade areas in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points. As of July 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A - share major indices rose collectively, with the three major indices oscillating strongly, and small - and medium - cap stocks slightly outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. Although the domestic economic fundamentals were still under pressure in June, financial data showed that the willingness of residents and enterprises to invest and consume improved under loose monetary policy. The market had high expectations for the ongoing Sino - US trade talks, and the central Huijin's increase in ETF holdings injected confidence into the market. Therefore, stock indices may rise in the near future. It is recommended to buy IO at - the - money call options on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: All major and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose. For example, the IF main contract (2509) was at 4141.4, up 22.4; the IH main contract (2509) was at 2814.0, up 10.8; the IC main contract (2509) was at 6263.0, up 41.2; the IM main contract (2509) was at 6662.0, up 57.0 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts, such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc., mostly increased. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1340.2, up 15.0 [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts showed different trends. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 10.6, up 3.2 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the net position of the top 20 in IF was - 25,808.00, down 2076.0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with communication, steel, and pharmaceutical biology sectors strengthening, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and banking sectors falling [2]. - **Market Sentiment Indicators**: A - share trading volume increased to 18,293.09 billion yuan, and margin trading balance increased to 19,670.33 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 41.37%, and Shibor decreased to 1.366%. IO at - the - money put option prices and implied volatility decreased [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to June, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; the operating cost was 57.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; the operating income profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22 percentage points. In June, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [2]. - **Policy Deployment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating action plans to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and promoting the development of emerging industrial industries [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -26.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1460.000 | | | 1735 | +12.70↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 | -40.00↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -275.00 | | | -61.30 | -23.10↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 856.56 | +42.80↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 50726 32↑ | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧 ...

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,212.00 | +184.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,110.00 | +270.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 655,401.00 | +24634.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 432,358.00 | +14863.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -116,519.00 | -3151.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -41,557.00 | +7244.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 74.00 | 0.00 | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 106.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 77,604.00 | -52.00↓ SF | 仓单（日，张） | 22,096. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the rainy season has led to a positive supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries, causing a bearish supply expectation over the raw sugar market. However, lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support, with prices hovering at low levels in the short term [2]. - Domestically, there is a divergence in price strength between domestic and foreign markets. The profit window for out - of - quota imports has opened, leading to a significant increase in imports in June, which suppresses sugar prices. On the demand side, the hot summer weather boosts the demand for food and beverage inventory and seasonal consumption of cold drinks, providing some support [2]. - Overall, the slowdown of the decline in the external market weakens its drag on domestic prices. The peak domestic demand season boosts the sugar futures price, but the increase in imports and the global supply surplus expectation limit the upside potential. The price will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 310,650 lots, down 14,181 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 19,746, down 404; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 947 lots; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4458 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 5662 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4509 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 5729 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The spot prices in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5915 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1502 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 298 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1451 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 231 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.83%, down 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.82%, down 0.41 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.01%, up 0.41 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.89%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 3.17573456 million tons of sugar in the first four weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,143.92 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year. On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract rose 0.92%, and the sugar 2509 contract rose 0.17% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply expectations are somewhat repaired, demand is temporarily weak, consumption expectations are positive, and price increases are due to the release of market sentiment, so caution is needed [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 70,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 186,221 hands, a decrease of 20,241 hands; the position volume of the main contract was 300,620 hands, a decrease of 77,852 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 12,276 hands/ton, an increase of 280 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,530 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 810 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 2,367 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume was 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons; the monthly enterprise operating rate was 52%, an increase of 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, an increase of 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 5.03 million yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate was 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 145,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 121,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 126,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, an increase of 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000, a decrease of 2,000; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000, an increase of 22,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000, an increase of 1,993,000; the monthly export volume was 205,000, a decrease of 70,000; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million, an increase of 455,000 [2]. Option Situation - The total call position was 244,387, an increase of 35,337; the total put position was 135,778, an increase of 2,858; the total position put - call ratio was 55.56%, a decrease of 8.0243 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility was 0.54%, a decrease of 0.1804 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing on July 28, aiming to deepen reforms, promote the implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan", consolidate the achievements of the comprehensive rectification of the "involution - type" competition in the new energy vehicle industry, and strengthen the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics [2]. - Shanghai will expand the open area of autonomous driving, aiming to achieve full - area opening of autonomous driving test roads in Pudong New Area by the end of this year and promote the opening of Fengxian and Minhang areas [2]. - A new automobile central enterprise, China Chang'an Automobile Group Co., Ltd., is about to be established, and its social media accounts have been launched [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The main lithium carbonate contract dropped significantly, with a decrease of 5.9% at the close. The position volume decreased, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - On the raw material side, recent disturbances in the lithium carbonate mining end and domestic policies on industrial structure adjustment led to an increase in the futures price and stronger price - holding intentions of miners [2]. - On the supply side, affected by policies and mining events, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be gradually controlled. In terms of imports and exports, Chile's exports increased slightly in June, and the average price also rose significantly, which is expected to increase the domestic import volume and price [2]. - On the demand side, due to the rapid rise in lithium prices and the off - season, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium carbonate is low, and only rigid - demand purchases are maintained, resulting in a dull trading situation in the spot market [2]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial inventory is still at a high level, and effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [2].

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-29 度有望增加。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，房地产依旧表现低迷，下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为 免责声明 主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需 求也面临库存压力。整体回调概率加 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 大，纯碱玻璃基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预期，今日玻璃延续下跌，多头资金获利了结 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1318 | 2 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1188 | -35 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 130 | 37 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 843601 | -108312 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current jujube market has a seasonal demand slump and high inventory of old jujubes, but there is periodic replenishment to support prices. The new - season jujubes are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The estimated new - season output is expected to decline by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated output of 56 - 62 million tons. The reduction is less than the absolute low in 2023. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the fundamentals. The implementation of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption by ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs boosts market confidence. In the short term, market sentiment dominates the price fluctuations, and it will return to the fundamentals later. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - season output [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 10,790 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 136,558 lots (a decrease of 1,475 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 2,568 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 8,739, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,455 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of jujube in different regions vary. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin, and the special - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,090 tons (a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a 2.23% week - on - week decrease and a 73.07% year - on - year increase), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,765,107 kg (a decrease of 464,120 kg), and the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The jujube wholesale price in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of Haoxiangni's jujubes is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative year - on - year jujube production of Haoxiangni is - 34.59% [2]. Industry News - On July 29, there was light rain in Aksu with temperatures between 18 - 32°C. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards. The mainstream per - mu yield is estimated to be between 700 - 800 kg. The 2601 jujube futures contract fell 1.33% on Tuesday [2].