。总体来说，短期价格由出栏节奏主导。当前供应增加，供需偏松导致价格承压，一般月末月初出栏或放 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 缓，关注后市出栏情况，价格可能反复波动。考虑养殖周期较长，产能政策对远期合约的支撑作用更加明 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 显。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14150 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in spot premium and basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to the negative TC fees of copper concentrates and tight copper ore supply. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production may slow slightly due to the decline of raw material port inventory and policy adjustments. The downstream processing enterprises are in the off - season, and they are sensitive to high - priced copper, resulting in a dull spot market. The social inventory decreased slightly and remains at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply growth slows slightly, demand is temporarily weak but the outlook is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis with a shrinking green column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,770 dollars/ton, down 23 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 173,684 lots, down 2,408 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures traders of Shanghai copper were 6,687 lots, down 1,567 lots. The LME copper inventory was 127,400 tons, down 1,075 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 73,423 tons (weekly), down 11,133 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 18,083 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,025 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 79,005 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 51.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 185 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 54.34 dollars/ton, down 0.66 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons (monthly), down 4.58 million tons. The TC fee of domestic copper smelters was - 42.63 dollars/thousand tons (weekly), up 0.82 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,320 yuan/metal ton, down 150 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,020 yuan/metal ton, down 150 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 750 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged. The production of refined copper was 130.20 million tons (monthly), up 4.80 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons (monthly), up 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,340 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 221.45 million tons (monthly), up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 29.11 billion yuan (monthly), up 8.7114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 466.5756 billion yuan (monthly), up 104.2372 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.45%, down 0.66%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.09%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.41%, down 0.0110. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.47, down 0.0907 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated a separate trade agreement with the US. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating action plans to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, smart wearables, and drones, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics. The hawkish ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs again. The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference closed, with procurement demands of over 300 projects announced and an expected intended procurement amount of 16.2 billion yuan, and 31 projects worth over 15 billion yuan were signed. Trump opened the market of the EU, which will open its 20 - trillion - dollar market, accept US automotive and industrial standards, buy 750 billion dollars of energy products from the US, invest 600 billion dollars in the US, and the US will set a 15% tariff on EU products exported to the US [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Tuesday, the HC2510 contract increased in position and rose. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating an action plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 81.11%. Both factory and social inventories increased, with a total inventory increase of 2.25 million tons. Overall, the fourth round of coke price increase, combined with the fermentation of meeting expectations, led to a rebound in hot-rolled coils. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded upwards. Operationally, short-term trading is recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,612,699 lots, up 131,532 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net position: -81,030 lots, down 15,423 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: -4 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 57,772 tons, down 590 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 156 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: -23 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 0 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 773 yuan/wet ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,315 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,150 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 137.9038 million tons, up 51,700 tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 498,000 tons, down 56,200 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.4 million tons, up 9,100 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.0692 million tons, up 33,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.78%, down 0.14% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.1749 million tons, down 36,500 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 81.11%, down 0.93% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 780,000 tons, up 6,900 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.6716 million tons, up 15,600 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.0474 million units, up 537,400 units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 9.5079 million units, up 95,900 units [2]. Industry News - On July 28, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market and some steel mills in the Xingtai area planned to raise the price of wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on July 29, 2025 [2]. - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, global shipyards received a total of 43 + 10 new ship orders, with Chinese shipyards receiving 33 + 10 orders, Japanese shipyards receiving 3 orders, and South Korean shipyards receiving 2 orders [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand will not change significantly, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,017.5 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars [3] - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,376 lots, down 5,605 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,614 lots, up 825 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 60,932 tons, up 973 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,650 tons, down 2,625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.31 dollars/ton, down 3.89 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan was 16,179 yuan, up 83 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, up 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 million tons, up 0.03 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [3] - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,182.14 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [3] - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,771.66 points, up 11.26 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles [3] - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump believes the Fed must cut interest rates this week [3] - Bangladesh wants to buy Boeing planes and hopes the US will lower tariffs; South Korea aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US; the US and the EU are discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits; Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs; Canada - US trade negotiations are tense; Chile expects copper tariff exemptions [3] - Trump is disappointed with Putin and is considering giving Russia less than two weeks to reach a cease - fire agreement [3] 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead production has declined due to falling lead prices, and secondary lead supply is tight due to scarce raw materials and slow resumption of production [3] - The lead battery industry is approaching the peak season, but actual demand is weak, and inventory is rising, indicating slow demand [3] - Shanghai lead supply is expected to decline slightly, demand will remain stable, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop apple inventory is low with little sales pressure, and transactions are priced according to quality. Some early - maturing varieties have a serious regreening phenomenon, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli have dropped by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan per jin. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has declined, weakening the price support. Coupled with the influence of capital flow, the apple futures rose and then fell. On Tuesday, the 2510 contract significantly reduced positions and corrected, giving back the decline of the past week. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7,908 yuan/ton; the holding volume of the main contract is 103,588 hands, a decrease of 23,673 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,875 hands, a decrease of 1,846 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg; the total inventory of national apple cold storages is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03%; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98%; the storage capacity ratio of Gansu apples is 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92%; the monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4,330.8 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 3.92 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 6.06 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 6.8 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 14.6 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 8.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.73% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production areas basically ended, and the remaining goods were mainly shipped by merchants themselves. The coloring of early - maturing apples was slow, and the redness was slightly poor. The actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin. In the Shandong production area, the number of inquiring merchants increased, the trading was smooth at the right price, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly. The apple 2510 contract closed down 3.1% on Tuesday. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the inventory of national main - producing area apple cold storages was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared with last week. The shipping speed was about the same as last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03% compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed was still average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98% compared with last week, and the shipping was slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu production area was 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with last week, and the shipping in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/7/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,347.00 | +99↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2175237 | +239356↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 88542 | +94480↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -37 | +4↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 85034 | +594↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 156 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,480.00 | +50↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,569 | +51↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +10↑ 天津 HRB400 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospect as the good rate of US corn remains high. In the domestic market, the corn supply is tight with low remaining grain in the Northeast and low channel inventory. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions has slightly increased, the actual transaction volume is limited and the delivery speed is slow. However, the low processing profit and开机率 of deep - processing enterprises and the relatively safe inventory of feed enterprises limit the upward momentum of corn prices. The corn futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the industry's开机率 is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civil and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch inventory has decreased slightly. The starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2302 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 87 yuan/ton; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 794,329 hands, down 11,231 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 22,888 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 160,521 hands, down 7,358 hands; the basis of the main contract is 107.22 yuan/ton, up 18.38 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 81 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 175,002 hands, up 1,570 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 16,047 hands, up 9,412 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 6,499 hands, down 100 hands; the basis of the main contract is - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 364 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 413.25 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents; the total holding volume is 1,493,670 contracts, up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts, down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.22 yuan/ton, up 1.38 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1997.13 yuan/ton, up 3.86 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.9 million tons, all unchanged. The predicted sown area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 30.5 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports is 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 131.1 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the monthly export volume is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2][3]. - Feed production: The monthly output is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days is 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit: In Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Hebei is - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. -开机率: The alcohol enterprise开机率 is 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise开机率 is 45.46%, down 4.83% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.96%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.49%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.05%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.05%, up 0.61% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,522,174 tons, compared with the revised 984,901 tons last week and 1,070,719 tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of July 24, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/2025 season was 68%, 13 percentage points higher than last week but still behind the 91% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% last week and up from 68% in the same period last year [2].

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-29 [1] Report's Core View - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has loosened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber has been under pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin this week, the increase in domestic supply is gradually emerging, and the pressure on spot sales has increased. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. In terms of demand, the resumption of production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. As the end of the month approaches, the overall sales performance of enterprises falls short of expectations, the finished product inventory increases slightly, and the overall order performance is insufficient. Some enterprises may have short-term overhaul plans from the end of July to the beginning of August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 41,136 lots, a decrease of 3,967 lots. The price difference between synthetic rubber 9 - 10 is 30 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 2,290 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 12,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 12,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 12,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 70.04 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.6 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 66.71 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.55 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,100 US dollars/ton, and the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 578.5 US dollars/ton. The capacity of butadiene this week is 14.77 million tons/week, the capacity utilization rate is 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The production of butadiene rubber this month is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the capacity utilization rate this week is 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points; the production profit this week is -440 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory is 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory is 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires is 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires is 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The production of all-steel tires this month is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the production of semi-steel tires this month is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all-steel tires in Shandong are 40.95 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi-steel tires in Shandong are 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days [2] Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of high-cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22%. As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises in China was 70.06%, a month-on-month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises in China was 62.23%, a month-on-month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.98 percentage points. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [2] Key Points to Focus On - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2450 in the short - term [2]. - Last week, due to favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere was good, and inland enterprises' shipments were smooth, leading to a significant decrease in enterprise inventory and a slight increase in pending orders. The port unloading speed was far lower than expected, and the methanol port inventory decreased unexpectedly. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and the port methanol inventory may increase significantly, but the impact of weather and other factors on the unloading speed needs to be noted. In terms of demand, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly last week, and the overall domestic olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's start - up will increase [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2434 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 576,028 lots, a decrease of 40,687 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 103,150 lots, an increase of 9,516 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 9,834, a decrease of 220 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - The East - Northwest price difference was 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 273 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 235 euros/ton, an increase of 16 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 22.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.39 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate was 5.19%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid start - up rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points [2]. - The olefin start - up rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 942 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.04%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.76%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 25.33%, a decrease of 5.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.32%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.98 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 24.48 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [2]. - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 72.58 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 8.70 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.26 tons [2]. - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the improvement of market risk - appetite, the global major stock index futures and non - US currencies generally rebounded, leading to a slowdown in gold's safe - haven demand. The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and traders raised the 2025 gold price from $3,065 to $3,220 per ounce and expected it to reach $3,400 in 2026 [2]. - The $3300 level of the outer - market gold price may form strong support. Central bank gold - buying demand remains the cornerstone of gold demand, with China having increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, and nearly 40% of central banks considering geopolitical risks as an important reason to increase gold positions [2]. - Trump's threat of sanctions on Russia's oil exports due to the Ukraine war led to a 2.3% increase in Brent crude to $69.90 per barrel, indicating that geopolitical risks are still high and providing side - support for gold [2]. - Future Fed policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data are potential driving factors. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is consolidated, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. A significant shortfall in subsequent PCE growth may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 771.44 yuan/gram, down 3.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9195 yuan/kg, down 17 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold was 212,407 lots, an increase of 2,732 lots; that of Shanghai silver was 392,743 lots, a decrease of 5,678 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai gold main contract were 155,575 lots, a decrease of 1,058 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 128,368 lots, a decrease of 781 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 31,263 kg, an increase of 1,005 kg; that of silver was 1,204,866 kg, a decrease of 3,403 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 767.04 yuan/gram, down 3.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 9146 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.4 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 49 yuan/kg, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 253,038 contracts, an increase of 39,923 contracts; those of silver were 60,620 contracts, an increase of 1,172 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.24%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.76%, a decrease of 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.34%, a decrease of 0.73%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.35%, a decrease of 0.73% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Trade and Politics**: Trump may impose a 15% - 20% uniform tariff on imports from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. Sino - US high - level officials restarted tariff negotiations in Stockholm, aiming to extend the August 12 tariff truce by 90 days. The EU and the US reached an important agreement, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement, reducing geopolitical risks. However, Trump expressed disappointment with Putin again, and there were still frictions after the temporary cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The European Central Bank's hawkish official Kazimir said that the bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again, and the reason for action in September is not sufficient unless there is a major unexpected economic turn [2].