1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On July 22, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5874, up 3.74%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5380. With strong macro - expectations due to the upcoming ten key industries' stable growth work plans, low - level operation of production, decreased cost of semi - coke in Ningxia, weak overall steel demand expectation, and negative production profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. - On July 22, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6012, up 1.76%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5700, up 20 yuan/ton. Affected by the plan to adjust the structure, optimize supply and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, coal prices rose significantly. With the factory's operating rate rising for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, neutral - to - high inventory, a decrease of 4.20 million tons in the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end, high downstream hot metal production, and negative spot profit, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 6012 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5874 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 592,505 lots, up 962 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 394,037 lots, up 1039 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon: - 71,449 lots, down 984 lots; net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy: - 44,311 lots, up 1578 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 72 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread: 78 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 78,495 sheets, down 259 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 22,150 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B: 5380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - Manganese silicon index average: 5610 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 494 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 332 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port: 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest China): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu): 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 428.50 million tons, down 4.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate: 40.53%, down 0.02%; silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate: 32.45%, up 1.25% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply: 182,840 tons, up 560 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply: 100,000 tons, up 1300 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon factory inventory: 216,300 tons, down 4500 tons; silicon ferroalloy factory inventory: 6.35 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills: 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; silicon ferroalloy inventory days in national steel mills: 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - Manganese silicon demand of five major steel types: 123,381 tons, down 1547 tons; silicon ferroalloy demand of five major steel types: 20,013.70 tons, down 153.60 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.48%, up 0.35%; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.92%, up 1.05% [2]. - Crude steel output: 83.184 million tons, down 3.361 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 21, coke enterprises initiated the second price increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 22 [2]. - From July 19 - 20, steel enterprises at the Tenth Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum reached a consensus on "strengthening self - discipline in production control" [2]. - China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect a further decline in the second half of the year [2]. - Premier Li Qiang signed the "Housing Rental Regulations", which will take effect on September 15, aiming to increase rental housing supply and cultivate professional housing rental enterprises [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Currently, the supply is tight and the new crop faces high - temperature weather, which provides positive support. The short - term trend is upward. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 35,399 lots, down 4,976 lots; main contract open interest for cotton is 554,167 lots, down 5,311 lots; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,436 lots, down 65 lots; China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B is 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 265 lots, down 151 lots; main contract open interest for cotton yarn is 15,117 lots, down 2,106 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index FCIndexM with 1% tariff is 13,693 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; with sliding - scale duty is 14,414 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,103 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,979 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,191 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - Cotton import volume is 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. Imported cotton profit is 1,111 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8298 million tons, down 628,900 tons [2] 下游情况 - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days;坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. Cloth output is 2.779 billion meters, up 109 million meters; yarn output is 2.065 million tons, up 114,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.16%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.17%. Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.57%, up 0.4%; 60 - day historical volatility is 9.03%, down 0.13% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% the same period last year. Internationally, due to falling grain prices and rainfall forecasts in production areas, US cotton futures prices have declined [2] 新作方面 - In some parts of Xinjiang, there is high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage [2][3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 22 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi, with Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610 and Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The resistance to raising prices of raw material butadiene has emerged, weakening the cost - side support for butadiene rubber. With the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, the supply is expected to increase. Last week, driven by the macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decline in the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in the inventory of trading enterprises. After the restart of some devices this week, the domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream buyers continue to bargain, which may drive up the inventory of production enterprises. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in orders in the middle and late stages, which is expected to have a small positive impact on the overall operation rate. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 49,351, with a week - on - week increase of 34,358. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 2,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 69.21 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 572.88 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,050 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 67.2 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 375 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,700 tons, with no week - on - week change; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the operation rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the operation rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.85 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 17, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 230,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.59%. As of July 17, the production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. In June 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From July 11 - 17, China's PE production increased by 0.52% to 609,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 0.89 percentage points to 78.68%. The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.64%. As of July 16, the sample inventory of PE producers increased by 7.34% to 529,300 tons, and as of July 18, the social sample warehouse inventory increased by 4.07% to 558,400 tons. The total inventory pressure is not significant. [2] - In July, the PE maintenance plan was basically fulfilled. With the restart of shutdown devices, production and capacity utilization are expected to increase in the second half of the month. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into operation, which may increase industry supply pressure in the medium - long term. [2] - The downstream operating rate increased recently driven by packaging film demand, but the seasonal inflection point cannot be confirmed due to the poor data of agricultural film orders and operating rate. [2] - The market expects limited actual effects of EU sanctions on Russia, and US tariffs on the EU are about to be implemented, causing international oil prices to fluctuate weakly. Under positive macro - expectations, L2509 fluctuates more, with a short - term strong upward trend in the market. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the PE futures main contract was 7,368 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,416 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,420 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,368 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. [2] - The trading volume was 384,173 lots, up 36,170 lots; the open interest was 394,148 lots, down 13,406 lots. The 1 - 5 month contract spread was - 4 yuan, down 22 yuan. [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 353,248 lots, down 6,923 lots; the short position was 379,362 lots, down 10,012 lots; the net long position was - 26,114 lots, up 3,089 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,224.35 yuan/ton, up 21.74 yuan; in East China, it was 7,312.68 yuan/ton, up 9.51 yuan. The basis was - 65.65 yuan, down 52.26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.13 US dollars/barrel, down 0.5 US dollars; the CFR mid - price in Japan was 572.88 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE petrochemicals was 78.21%, up 0.43 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.59%, up 0.52 percentage points; for PE pipes, it was 28.83%, up 0.83 percentage points; for PE agricultural film, it was 12.46%, down 0.17 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PE was 8.06%, down 3.83 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.52%, up 0.24 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options for PE was 13.84%, up 2 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From July 11 - 17, China's PE production was 609,100 tons, up 0.52% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 78.68%, up 0.89 percentage points. [2] - From July 11 - 17, the average operating rate of China's PE downstream products increased by 0.64% from the previous period. [2] - As of July 16, the sample inventory of China's PE producers was 529,300 tons, up 7.34% from the previous period; as of July 18, the social sample warehouse inventory of PE was 558,400 tons, up 4.07% from the previous period. [2] - Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose during the day, with L2509 rising 1.26% to close at 7,368 yuan/ton. [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to the normal level, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises tends to be stable, and there is a certain increase in orders in the middle and late ten - day periods, with a slight expected boost to the overall operation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,150 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,060 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 165 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 795 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,855 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 60 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 in both increased. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, etc., showed different changes. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers increased by 70 yuan/ton. The prices of butadiene - styrene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical also changed, with the price of cis - butadiene rubber increasing by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products decreased, while the basis of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market and its main contract increased [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, showed different changes. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.73 tons, while the monthly import volume of mixed rubber increased by 5.85 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased, with the all - steel tire operating rate increasing by 0.54 percentage points and the semi - steel tire operating rate increasing by 3.07 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased, with the all - steel tire output increasing by 800,000 pieces and the semi - steel tire output increasing by 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying showed different trends, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 2.65 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility remaining unchanged. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 20 - 26, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. The rainfall in most areas in the northern hemisphere affected rubber tapping, while the rainfall in the southern hemisphere had less impact on rubber tapping. As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao decreased by 0.18 million tons, with a decline of 0.28%. The inventory in bonded areas and general trade both decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also decreased. As of July 17, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises increased [2]

尿素产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | 5 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 8 | -24 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 191764 | -4185 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -35180 | -6933 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 30 河南(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 30 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 23 | 5 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. Today, industrial silicon hit the daily limit, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices. The spot price has not risen yet, and the current overall spot profit is substantial with high market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,655 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan; the position of the main contract is 380,961 lots, down 2,335 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 49,932 lots, up 20,525 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,141 lots, down 252 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,950 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. The National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal production verification [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. In the Southwest, production costs have decreased, with varying progress in enterprise resumption. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has increased, the production profit has declined, the cost has risen, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and the demand for industrial silicon has declined. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2]. 3.8 Key Focus - There is no news today [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, with no significant change in demand. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 2,015 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,059 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.97 US dollars/ton, down 1.77 US dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 1,764.64 points, up 13.09 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury twice and filing criminal charges [3] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered, and the Fed should be comprehensively reviewed [3] - Trump administration officials are considering visiting the Fed during the review of its renovation project, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott is also discussing whether to attend [3] - The White House said Trump has no plan to fire Powell [3] - The US Congressional Budget Office said the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] - Fitch downgraded the industry outlook rating of 25% of US industries to "deteriorating" [3] View Summary - The supply of primary lead has decreased due to falling prices; the supply of recycled lead is tight due to the shortage of waste battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow [3] - The price of 1 lead has fallen; the price of waste batteries has stabilized, and the procurement price of some enterprises has returned to 10,000 yuan/ton [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries has not shown the seasonal peak effect, and the downstream is still waiting and watching, with limited impact on lead prices [3] - Overseas inventory has increased; domestic inventory has increased slightly, and overall demand has slowed down [3] 提示关注 - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase in palm oil production and decline in exports have constrained its market price performance. However, Indonesia's high biodiesel consumption and sufficient tax revenue for subsidies make Malaysian palm oil exports more competitive. Recently, the palm oil market has generally maintained a strong upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents **Futures Market** - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,926 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active contract is 492,920 lots. The 9 - 1 spread is -16,949 yuan/ton, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 58,164 lots, a decrease of 6,469 lots [2]. - The settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 4,172 Malaysian ringgit/ton, a decrease of 89 ringgit/ton. The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.95/barrel, a decrease of $0.1/barrel [2]. **Spot Price** - The spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 9,000 yuan/ton, 9,100 yuan/ton, and 9,150 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing by 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,040/ton, a decrease of $15/ton, and the CNF price is $1,078/ton, also a decrease of $15/ton [2]. - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [2]. **Up - stream Situation** - Malaysia's monthly palm oil production is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; and the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2]. - Indonesia's monthly palm oil production is 4.9 million tons, exports are 2.88 million tons, and the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2]. - The FOB price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $96.2/ton, an increase of $39.84/ton. The daily export volume data from ITS and SGS show a significant decline [2]. **Industry Situation** - The weekly palm oil inventory is 563,000 tons, an increase of 27,900 tons. The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2]. - The national daily soybean oil port inventory is 932,000 tons, and the weekly rapeseed oil port inventory is 685,600 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons [2]. - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 9,244.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 141.04 yuan/ton. The import profit is -244.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 171.04 yuan/ton [2]. - The ex - factory prices of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen are 8,220 yuan/ton and 9,520 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 40 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2]. **Down - stream Situation** - Malaysia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 870,000 tons and 3.1 million tons respectively, with an increase of 5,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. - Indonesia's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 7.4 million tons and 13.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 200,000 tons and 500,000 tons [2]. - China's annual food and industrial consumption of palm oil are 3.6 million tons and 2.3 million tons respectively, with a decrease of 100,000 tons in food consumption and no change in industrial consumption [2]. **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for palm oil is 20.06%, an increase of 1.51% and 1.5% respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 11.64% and 18.7% respectively, with decreases of 3.34% and 0.1% [2]. **Industry News** - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with the FFB yield increasing by 7.03% and the OER decreasing by 0.16% [2]. - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 were 740,394 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to the same period in June. According to ITS data, exports were 817,755 tons, a 3.5% decrease, with exports to China decreasing by 7,000 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak fundamental recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose capital situation continues to support the bond market, with limited adjustment space. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of treasury bond futures in the short term and make allocations after stabilization. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL主力 contracts decreased by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.46% respectively; the trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL主力 contracts were 88,280, 72,060, 31,667, and 118,236 respectively, with increases of 3,602, 700, 91, and 6,587 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TF09 - T09 showed changes, with TL2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.05, T2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.03, and TF09 - T09 remaining unchanged. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TL主力 increased by 2,166, 3,892, and 962 respectively, while the position of TS主力 decreased by 1,247. [2] 3.2 CTD Bond Data - The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, and 240020.IB decreased, with 220010.IB dropping by 0.1004, 250007.IB dropping by 0.0632, and 240020.IB dropping by 0.1193. [2] 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields - The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds increased by 0.25 - 1.60bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 1.05bp and 1.50bp respectively, reaching 1.67% and 1.89%. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 3.99bp to 1.3601%, and the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 9.60bp to 1.3660%. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank is soliciting opinions on canceling the regulation of freezing the collateral for bond repurchase until August 17. [2] - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. [2] - The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Domestic: In June, industrial added value and social retail sales slightly rebounded, fixed - asset investment remained stable, and the unemployment rate was flat. Social financing exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Exports and imports rebounded significantly, but price levels were under pressure. [2] - Overseas: The US core CPI in June was continuously lower than expected, but inflation risks continued to rise. The Fed's internal differences on the impact of tariffs on the inflation path increased, and the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut decreased. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On July 21 at 22:00, the US June Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate will be released. - On July 23 at 17:15, the Bank of England Governor and other officials will speak at the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee. [3]