Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the freight index (Europe line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2508 closed up 0.11%, while the far - month contracts had declines ranging from -1% to -1%. The current price index continued to improve, supporting the futures price of the main contract. The latest SCFIS Europe line settlement freight rate index was 2123.24, up 186.1 points from last week, a 9.6% week - on - week increase. - The US economic data indicated challenges. The 6 - month ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, and the service industry employment had the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. - The euro - zone economy showed signs of bottoming out under the support of tariff expectation easing and Germany's fiscal expansion policy. However, the manufacturing industry was still under pressure, with a 2.4% month - on - month drop in industrial output. - There was still uncertainty in the trade war, and the demand expectation for the freight index (Europe line) was weak, with large fluctuations in futures prices. But the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators might drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors were advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price: 1896.900, up 2.0; EC second - main contract closing price: 1363.9, down 10.6. - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: +17.40 up; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 358.20, up 2.70. - EC contract basis: -13.40 down, at 226.34. - EC main contract open interest: down 388, at 35947 [1]. Spot Price - SCFIS (Europe line) (weekly): 2123.24, up 186.10; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1619.19, down 464.27. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1861.51, down 8.08; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1369.34, up 26.88; CCFI (Europe line) (weekly): 1640.72, up 62.12. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1443.00, up 15.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1492.00, up 8.00. - Average charter price (Panamax): 12089.00, down 247.00; average charter price (Capesize): 10261.00, up 338.00 [1]. Industry News - The US military assessment was that Iran's nuclear facilities were destroyed, and its nuclear program was postponed by 1 - 2 years. - China's National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year was fully issued. - The US 6 - month ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, and the service industry employment had the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. - The US President announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, with Vietnam's exports to the US subject to a 20% tariff and trans - shipped goods subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [1]. Key Points to Watch - July 4, 14:45, France's May industrial output monthly rate. - July 4, 17:00, Euro - zone May PPI monthly rate [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply decreases due to farmers' price - holding and reduced weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month, but there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter as sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle. High temperatures and school holidays suppress pork demand, resulting in slow terminal sales and a decline in slaughterhouse operating rates. The entry of second - fattening investors boosts the near - month price of live pigs. Continuous attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the entry rhythm of second - fattening investors [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 79,652 lots, down 4,273 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,158 lots, down 2,550 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 15,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main live - pig contract is 1,030 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live - pig inventory is 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, up 4,000 heads. The monthly CPI year - on - year change is - 0.1%, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,436.86 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 950.52, up 1.21. The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 131.71 yuan/head, up 55.08 yuan; for self - breeding and self - raising is 50.25 yuan/head, up 30.85 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises is 32.16 million heads, up 1.39 million heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the planned live - pig output of key provincial breeding enterprises in July 2025 is 13.005 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. At the beginning of the month, farmers hold prices and reduce the volume of pigs for sale, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreases, resulting in a short - term reduction in supply. The sow production capacity in the third quarter is in an increasing cycle, with a risk of delayed supply [2]

幅下跌拖累国内白糖价格下跌，不过预期需求增加，限制跌幅。后期供需双强，价格波动加剧。后期关注 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 到港和夏季消费情况。 白糖产业日报 2025-07-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5767 | 1 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 304239 | 2101 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 23520 | -55 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -24628 | -2927 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 -24 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 吨) | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 4318 | 吨) | 4368 | -24 | | 现货市场 | | 5480 | -31 进口泰 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, in the mining end, the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to operate in the negative range, the progress of the mid - year long - term contract negotiation exceeds expectations, the long - term TC has been repaired, and the tight supply situation of copper concentrate has improved. In terms of supply, due to the sufficient port inventory of copper mines and the opening of the copper export window, smelters still have a high production willingness, with stable and slightly increasing output. Although the supply is sufficient, the domestic supply has tightened due to the increasing export intention. In terms of demand, affected by the off - season, the processing and consumption of downstream copper products have weakened. The seasonal weakness of demand has led to low trading activity in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the social inventory remains basically stable and operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the supply expectation of copper mines has improved. In the options market, the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, a decrease of 0.0844 compared with the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,995 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 224,672 lots, up 1,550 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is 7,547 lots, up 2,459 lots. The LME copper inventory is 93,250 tons, up 2,000 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 31,900 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 24,103 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 80,995 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 96.2 dollars/ton, down 20.1 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars/kiloton. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 56,590 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.6 million tons, up 1.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 3,623.384 billion yuan, up 850.427 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235 million pieces, up 68 million pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.2%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.42%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 14.71%, down 0.0120; the purchase - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.6, down 0.0844. [2] 3.7 Industry News - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business volume index has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months this year. The ADP employment in the US unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 in June, the first negative growth since March 2023. The market expected an increase of 98,000. After the downward revision of May data, it only increased by 29,000. The service industry lost 66,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June is 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. The Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, Zhang Guoqing, conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technological empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high - quality development of the manufacturing industry. Fed Chairman Powell said that it's hard to say whether a rate cut in July is too early, and no meeting is excluded. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there is no urgent need to change policies. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate remains high, and the oversupply situation continues, with industry inventory pressure still existing. The demand side has some support from downstream rigid - demand orders, and the improvement of demand expectations has led to an upward shift in the trading center of the spot market. Overall, the oversupply of lithium carbonate will still bring pressure to the industry, and subsequent effective demand needs to be driven by actual consumption. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [2]. - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant, and the implied volatility has slightly increased [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 73,811 lots, down 19,600 lots; the position of the main contract is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 500 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,180 lots, up 240 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,100 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,980 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 694 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,632 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application - The prices of some materials such as manganese - acid lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and ternary materials remain unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 171,280 lots, down 5,040 lots; the total put position is 98,254 lots, up 12,488 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions is 57.36%, up 8.7223 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.23%, up 0.0090 percentage points [2]. 2. Industry News - Tesla's global deliveries in Q2 decreased 13.5% year - on - year to 384,100 units, slightly lower than the analyst consensus of 389,400 units but better than the pessimistic prediction. Its June sales in China were 71,600 units, up 0.8% year - on - year [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June is 1.26 million units, up 29% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative wholesale from January to June is 6.47 million units, up 38% year - on - year [2]. - The used - car manager index in June is 42.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year - on - year and down 2.6 percentage points month - on - month, still in the non - prosperous range [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and innovation of the manufacturing industry in Hubei [2]. - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in June is 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business volume index has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months [2]. 3. Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are shrinking [2].

苹果产业日报 2025-07-03 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 20 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7764 | | 7764 | 20 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) -2756 仓单数量:苹果(日,张) | 88743 | | 0 | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) 1406 | 6696 | | | | | | 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 0 | 4.1 | | 4.5 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) 1320 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 10995 | | 145476 | 30552 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) 238 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | -14913 | | 8650 | 66 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 534 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 1552 | | | | | 现货市场 | | 6 | | 4. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures main - contract oscillated and declined, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand, with stable bauxite prices providing some cost support. Suggest light - position oscillating trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main - contract oscillated strongly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals are in a situation of relatively stable supply, short - term demand decline due to seasonality, and long - term positive expectations, with macro - sentiment dominating market changes. Suggest light - position short - selling on rallies [2]. - The cast aluminum main - contract oscillated strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Its fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Suggest light - position oscillating trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main - contract was 3,026 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,614.50 US dollars/ton, up 12.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract open interest of Shanghai aluminum was 281,092 lots, and that of alumina was 279,051 lots, up 3,556 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 8,625 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 356,625 tons, up 8,000 tons [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventory was 94,290 tons, down 10,194 tons; the alumina total inventory was 65,645 tons, down 24,650 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was 54 yuan, up 45 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 2.97 US dollars/ton, down 2.21 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of alumina was 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the export quantity of alumina was 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons; the export quantity was 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.60 million tons, up 3.37 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business volume index has been in the expansion zone for four consecutive months this year [2]. - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 people, the first negative growth since March 2023. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers in China in June was 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale was 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - important" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two - important" construction project list for this year has been fully released [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized accelerating industrial innovation and promoting high - quality development of the manufacturing industry during his research in Hubei [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said it's hard to say if a July rate cut is too early, and no meeting is excluded. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there is no urgency to change policies [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Fed rate - cut expectations and the repair of the gold - silver ratio drive up silver prices, and tariff uncertainties support gold prices [2]. - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data indicates a possible slowdown in non - farm employment growth, and the labor market remains resilient. Tonight's non - farm data is crucial for gold price trends. Higher - than - expected labor demand may boost wage growth and rate - cut expectations, thus lifting gold prices. Otherwise, the US dollar may strengthen and suppress gold prices [2]. - COMEX gold futures' net long positions in Q2 2025 hit a four - quarter low, and rising gold prices suppress speculative and physical demand for gold. However, in the long - term, US fiscal deficits and damaged dollar credit are positive for gold prices, and the dovish tone of Fed officials boosts silver's industrial properties, with the gold - silver ratio expected to converge [2]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8700 - 9000 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 781.28 yuan/gram, up 5.24 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8944 yuan/kilogram, up 197 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 175,461 lots, up 6,865 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 272,055 lots, up 23,032 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 141,322 lots, down 1,842 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 87,981 lots, down 3,833 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipts are 18,456 kilograms, unchanged; the silver warehouse receipts are 1,340,792 kilograms, up 2,133 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 774.59 yuan/gram, up 1.69 yuan; the silver spot price is 8815 yuan/kilogram, up 81 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.69 yuan/gram, down 3.55 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 129 yuan/kilogram, down 116 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, down 0.57 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 14,846.12 tons, down 22.89 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644 contracts; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.24%, up 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.85%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.75%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.76%, up 0.22% [2]. Industry News - The US assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, and the nuclear program is postponed by 1 - 2 years [2]. - Trump announces a trade agreement with Vietnam, with 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [2]. - The US House of Representatives advances Trump's tax - cut and spending bill [2]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 22.8% [2]. - The market expects 110,000 new non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, against an expected increase of 98,000 [2].

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/7/3 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 856.00 | +12.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1445.50 | +3.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 757780.00 | ...