国债期货日报 2025/7/2 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 57955 | 109.130 | 0.14% T主力成交量 | | 1131↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 45931 | 106.250 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | | 1382↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.512 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 24944 | 34↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 121.180 | 0.4% TL主力成交量 ...

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1883.500 30.9↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1367.9 | -0.90↓ | | 期货盘面 | 515.60 -5.50↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 EC2508-EC2510价差 | | | 355.50 | -11.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 239.74 | +21.40↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 36335 | | -4141↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2123.24 186.10↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,619.19 | -464.27↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1861.51 -8.08↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1369.34 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the supply decreases as farmers hold back on sales and reduce the average weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month. However, there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter due to the increasing sow production capacity. - On the demand side, high temperatures dampen consumers' willingness to buy pork, leading to slower sales at the retail level and a decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate. - Overall, the short - term supply reduction and the entry of second - fattening buyers boost the near - term hog prices. The main 2509 contract has risen by over 3%, reaching a two - month high. The practice of holding back pigs and second - fattening causes supply delays, resulting in a pattern where near - term prices are strong and long - term prices are weak. [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for hogs is 14,340 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 83,925 lots, an increase of 5,729 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, a decrease of 375 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures traders is - 7,608 lots, an increase of 1,304 lots. - The hog basis is 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of hogs in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 15,200 yuan/ton, 14,800 yuan/ton, and 17,100 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 400 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 41,7310 thousand heads, a decrease of 1,0120 thousand heads. The inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420 thousand heads, an increase of 40 thousand heads. - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.1%, unchanged from the previous value. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The spot price of corn is 2,436.67 yuan/ton, up 0.4 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 949.31, down 7.35. - The monthly feed production is 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. - The weekly profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is - 131.71 yuan/head, an increase of 55.08 yuan. The weekly profit from self - breeding and self - fattening is 50.25 yuan/head, an increase of 30.85 yuan. - The monthly pork import volume is 90 thousand tons, an increase of 10 thousand tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160 thousand heads, an increase of 1390 thousand heads. - The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry amount to 457.82 billion yuan, an increase of 41.12 billion yuan. [2] Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on July 2, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 233,860 heads, a 6.51% increase from the previous day. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 2, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 843.5, up 3.18%. The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was reported at 733, down 4 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly. The coking coal market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On July 2, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1442.0, up 3.15%. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented. The coke market is also expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the JM main - contract was 843.50 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; the contract's open interest was 729,229.00 hands, down 18,701.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 46,931.00 hands, up 5,965.00 hands; the spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 48.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; the number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 0.00 [2]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the J main - contract was 1442.00 yuan/ton, up 53.50 yuan; the contract's open interest was 57,171.00 hands, up 869.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 3,635.00 hands, down 266.00 hands; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 37.50 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 733.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; Russian coking coal forward spot was 115.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream and Industry Situation - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of raw coal in 110 coal washing plants was 312.17 million tons, down 9.11 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 214.98 million tons, down 16.89 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 59.72%, up 0.62 percentage points; the raw coal production was 40,328.40 million tons, up 1,397.80 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3,604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 coking coal mines was 185.00 thousand tons, down 4.50 thousand tons; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 495.12 million tons, down 28.85 million tons; the total inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises was 808.98 million tons, up 13.19 million tons; the inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 781.21 million tons, up 6.55 million tons; the available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises were 12.39 days, up 0.10 days; the import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65 million tons; the production of coking coal was 4,070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons [2]. - **Coke**: The inventory of coke at 18 ports was 251.89 million tons, down 4.32 million tons; the inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises was 113.03 million tons, down 2.55 million tons; the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills was 627.75 million tons, down 6.45 million tons; the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.22 days, down 0.20 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons; the production of coke was 4,237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.35%, down 0.22 percentage points; the average loss per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points; the crude steel production was 8,654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The June PMI shows that the domestic prosperity level remains in an expansion state, which is beneficial to the stock market. The State Council Executive Meeting emphasizes strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation, which is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. The recent weakening of the US dollar index has also relieved the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is 3894.2 (+4.8), IH (2509) is 2696.8 (+4.2), IC (2509) is 5756.6 (-14.0), IM (2509) is 6117.0 (-17.0). IF (2507) is 3921.0 (+6.0), IH (2507) is 2703.0 (+4.6), IC (2507) is 5856.6 (-15.4), IM (2507) is 6262.2 (-24.8) [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1218.0 (+2.4), IC - IF spread is 1935.6 (-20.8), etc. [2]. - **Season - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF when - season to current month is - 26.8 (-1.2), IH is - 6.2 (0.0), IC is - 100.0 (+3.4), IM is - 145.2 (+8.2) [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,725.00 (+104.0), IH is - 11,962.00 (-155.0), IC is - 10,395.00 (+7.0), IM is - 34,573.00 (-258.0) [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 is 3943.68 (+0.9), SSE 50 is 2722.55 (+4.8), CSI 500 is 5892.95 (-41.7), CSI 1000 is 6309.48 (-64.3) [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 14,051.09 billion yuan (-914.22 billion), margin trading balance is 18,545.63 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 1318.02 billion yuan (-260.71 billion) [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 35.87% (-12.64%), Shibor is 1.365% (-0.002) [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 4.00 (-1.60), technical aspect is 3.60 (-1.20), capital aspect is 4.40 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, up 0.2 points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 points; comprehensive PMI is 50.7%, up 0.3 points [2]. - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13% [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On July 2, at 19:30, focus on US June Challenger job - cuts; at 20:15, focus on US June ADP employment [3]. - On July 3, at 20:30, focus on US June non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

贵金属产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.04 | -0.06 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8747 | -63 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 168596 | 1131 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 249023 | -15701 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 143164 | 3150 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 91814 | 972 | | 现货市场 | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18456 | 3 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1338659 | -185 | | | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 772.9 | 4.71 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8734 | 46 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.14 | 4.77 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -13 ...

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121220 | 500 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -90 | 60 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15190 | 65 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 74763 | -176 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -6760 | -1119 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 204006 | 120 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 24718 | -586 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 11010 | 300 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 21137 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122050 | 600 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 500 | | | 上海电解镍:CI ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The price of bauxite provides some cost support. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward - moving trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading and control risks [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply. Short - term demand is affected by the off - season, but long - term demand is expected to improve. The option market sentiment is bullish. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a potential downward trend. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a weakening upward trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,635 yuan/ton, with a flat change. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,602 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.93, down 0.01 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 4,814 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,885 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The main contract position increased by 391 hands [2]. **Spot Market** - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 175 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 9 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 215 yuan/ton, down 495 yuan [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Alumina**: The production volume is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons. The demand is 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance is - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons. The import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons, and the export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity is 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons. The production volume is not mentioned separately. The import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons, and the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons. The social inventory is 42.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production volume is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons. The export volume of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Automobile**: The production volume is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. **Option Situation** The purchase - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.25, up 0.0183 compared with the previous period. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 9.69%, up 0.0056 [2]. **Industry News** - China's light industry has achieved growth in the first five months of this year. The manufacturing PMI in June has rebounded [2]. - Automobile sales in June showed different trends among different brands [2]. - The Fed Chairman mentioned the possibility of interest - rate cuts, and the US manufacturing PMI in June was still in the contraction range [2].

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/7/2 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 63,960.00 | +1180.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -54,211.00 | +7329.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 325,574.00 | -1102.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 280.00 | -120.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 23,180.00 | +240.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 61,650.00 | +350.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 60,050.00 | +350.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -2,310.00 | -830.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 694.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report notes that domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices are running weakly, and consumption is gradually weakening. With enterprises having made more low - price purchases earlier, inventory shipment speed has slowed, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventories are stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and inventories continue to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are back in the previous operating range. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. The report suggests temporarily observing the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 27.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 263,829 lots, down 4,934 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 13,712 lots, down 2,430 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt is 6,624 tons, down 200 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons (weekly), up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 114,900 tons (daily), down 2,575 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 60 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 18.75 dollars/ton, down 8.52 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,160 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons (monthly), up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 23,1836,100 square meters, up 5,347,770 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 18,3851,400 square meters, up 2,737,290 square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 15.54% (daily), down 0.57%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 15.53% (daily), down 0.57% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 7.38% (daily), down 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 16.78% (daily), down 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, stating that if not for tariffs, a rate cut would have occurred, and tariffs are expected to affect inflation [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5. Indicators for raw material payment prices showed signs of slightly accelerating inflation. Import and export indicators were still in contraction, but the decline rate slowed. The order backlog index had the largest decline in a year [3]. - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, the highest since August 2022, and output growth for the fourth consecutive month. New orders stabilized in June [3]. - Facing the July 9 deadline for tariff restart, the Trump administration adjusted its trade negotiation strategy, shifting from seeking a comprehensive reciprocal agreement to a more limited phased agreement to avoid re - imposing severe tariffs on some countries [3].