Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper price is strongly supported by cost. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand remains cautious, leading to an accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an expanding red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,800 yuan/ton, up 2,390 yuan; LME3 - month copper is 13,214 dollars/ton, up 216 dollars. The spread between months of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 182,688 lots, down 5,986 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 60,574 lots, down 16,936 lots. LME copper inventory is 138,975 tons, down 2,100 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME copper are 23,625 tons, down 2,300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 116,622 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM1 copper is 103,235 yuan/ton, up 2,960 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 103,205 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.94 dollars/ton, up 25.19 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 45.41 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 93,480 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 94,180 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 67,990 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,150 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed value of power grid infrastructure investment is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed value of real estate development investment is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output value of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai copper for 20 - day is 26.76%, up 0.8%; for 40 - day is 21.93%, up 0.53%. The implied volatility of the current month's at - the - money IV is 29.72%, down 0.0185. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.56, up 0.0609 [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2023. The core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year, remaining above 1% for four consecutive months. The CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month. The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points; it rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months. The Fed's rate - cut expectation in January 2026 was completely dashed. The U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January was almost zero. The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination, and the National Business Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for the business system in 2026. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million units, down 14% year - on - year; the annual cumulative retail sales were 23.744 million units, up 3.8%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars in December were 1.337 million units, up 2.6% year - on - year; the annual cumulative sales were 12.809 million units, up 17.6%. It is expected that the retail sales of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures varied. The main contract EC2602 closed down 5.4%, and the far - month contracts had declines ranging from 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The spot freight rate quotations of leading shipping companies have loosened, and the geopolitical situation may improve, causing the freight rate to drop significantly. The actual implementation of the shipping companies' price increase announcements needs further attention. In addition, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the boost effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. It is recommended that investors be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][35][36] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The main contract price of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased this week. The EC2602 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined [11][13] - The specific price changes of each contract are shown as follows: EC2602 had a weekly decline of 5.40%, a weekly drop of 98.70, and a closing price of 1729.80; EC2604 had a decline of 1.94%, a drop of 22.70, and a closing price of 1144.50; EC2606 had an increase of 4.04%, a rise of 55.40, and a closing price of 1425.80; EC2608 had an increase of 1.95%, a rise of 29.20, and a closing price of 1525.70; EC2610 had an increase of 3.99%, a rise of 42.30, and a closing price of 1102.20; EC2612 had an increase of 4.11%, a rise of 53.50, and a closing price of 1354.00. The SCFIS index had a weekly increase of 3.10, a rise of 53.19, and a closing price of 1795.83 [9] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky said during a visit to Cyprus that the negotiations with US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026, which is a bearish factor [16] - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said that the Iranian armed forces are on high alert, a neutral - bullish factor [16] - China decided to ban the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes, a neutral - bearish factor [16] - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, which is a neutral factor [16] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts both contracted this week [23] - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European line capacity increased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined this week, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly [27] - The charter price of Panamax ships decreased this week, and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar converged [30] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2602 closed down 5.4%, and the far - month contracts had declines of 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rose 3.1% week - on - week. The spot freight rate quotations of leading shipping companies have loosened, the geopolitical situation may improve, the support for the futures price has weakened, and the freight rate has dropped significantly. The actual implementation of the shipping companies' price increase announcements needs further attention. China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data in a timely manner [6][35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate. Traders are advised to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of +3.23% and an amplitude of 6.85%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 101,410 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed the hope to lower interest rates, and Fed Governor Milan expected a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026 [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, all rising to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate TC processing index is running at a low level, and the domestic copper mine supply is still tight, providing strong cost support for copper prices. Smelters are still actively producing due to high copper and by - product prices, with a slight increase expected in January production. However, downstream procurement is cautious due to high copper prices, and new orders are limited in the off - season, leading to light trading in the spot market and an accumulation of industrial inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 1,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,715 yuan/ton. The contract price was 101,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,170 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 188,674 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 19,572 lots [12]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,390 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 790 yuan/ton [18]. - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 46 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 traders in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 68,487 lots, a decrease of 22,623 lots from last week [22]. 3.3 Option Market - As of January 9, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the main Shanghai copper was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.669, a decrease of 0.0002 from last week [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Price and Processing Fee**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,430 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper was 2,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton [31]. - **Import and Spread**: In November 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, an increase of 74,700 tons from October, a growth of 3.05% and a year - on - year growth of 12.55%. The tax - included scrap - refined copper price spread was 6,022.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,197.27 yuan/ton [36]. - **Production and Inventory**: In October 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,938 thousand tons, an increase of 37 thousand tons from September, a growth of 1.95%. The global capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from September. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from October, a growth of 2.66% and a year - on - year growth of 9.09%. The global monthly production of refined copper was 2,386 thousand tons, an increase of 21 thousand tons from September, a growth of 0.89%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 2.1% from September. The monthly import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a decrease of 18,404.29 tons from October, a decline of 5.7% and a year - on - year decline of 23.47%. The import profit and loss was 1,009.92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,572.42 yuan/ton. The LME total inventory decreased by 4,250 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 15,116 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29,441 tons. The total social inventory was 284,700 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons from last week [43][49][55]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Demand - Side**: In November 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from October, a growth of 11.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 18.87% [61]. - **Application - Side**: In November 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in power source construction decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. The monthly production of washing machines, refrigerators, and freezers increased by 5.5%, 5.6%, and 3.6% year - on - year respectively, while the production of air conditioners and color TVs decreased by 23.4% and 5% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43.184 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [65][71]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, in October 2025, the global refined copper supply exceeded demand by 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 1,400 tons [77][78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - This week, most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - In the near future, the supply of butadiene rubber will remain high. The butadiene rubber market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of manufacturers have improved. However, there is still some inventory waiting to be picked up, and the overall inventory level has changed little. Due to the continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials, the supply price of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. However, due to the resistance of downstream buyers to high prices, they may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of manufacturers and traders may increase in the short term [8]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - Market review: Most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: Supply will remain high. Raw material prices will boost sales, but inventory may increase due to downstream resistance to high prices. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 4.37% [12]. - As of January 9, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber was - 50 [18]. - As of January 9, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 4,530 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of January 8, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - As of January 8, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of January 8, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 540.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.23 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - As of January 9, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.7% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [32]. - **Industry Middle - Stream** - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [35]. - As of January 8, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 2.35% from last week [35]. - As of January 8, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of January 9, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,120 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [45]. - In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [48]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations is rising, which drags down the prices of rapeseed - related futures. The rapeseed - related market shows different supply - demand situations, with both short - term support and long - term supply pressure [7][9]. - The rapeseed market is affected by factors such as the supply of the United States and Brazil, and the import situation of Canada and Australia. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal markets follow the trend of soybean - related products to some extent [7][9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts the price. The expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations supports the Canadian rapeseed market. In Indonesia, there may be a reduction in oil palm plantations and a possible increase in palm oil export tax, which is beneficial for palm oil prices, but the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory limits the increase. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, supporting the price and keeping the basis at a high level. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [7]. 3.1.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the US soybean export season, the supply is abundant, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US soybean market is under pressure. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is still restricted in the near term, and oil mills are shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 245,121 lots, an increase of 45,683 lots compared with last week [14]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 809,345 lots, an increase of 177,875 lots compared with last week [14]. 3.2.2 Top 20 Net Positions - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures this week were - 10,917, compared with - 23,985 last week, with a decrease in net short positions [20]. - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures this week were - 107,343, compared with - 40,144 last week, with an increase in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3 Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 2042 lots [26]. - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal were 84 lots [26]. 3.2.4 Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9770 yuan/ton, slightly rising compared with last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 728 yuan/ton [32]. - The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was reported at 2460 yuan/ton, basically unchanged compared with last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price of rapeseed meal was + 122 yuan/ton [38]. 3.2.5 Futures Inter - month Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was reported at + 21 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was reported at - 60 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. 3.2.6 Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.867; the ratio of the average spot price was 3.87 [47]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads between Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil/Palm Oil - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1048 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 360 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. 3.2.8 Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The spread between the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448 yuan/ton [63]. - As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was reported at 710 yuan/ton [63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 60,000 tons, the same as last week, and 722,000 tons in the same period last year. The five - week average was 61,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [67]. - **Import Pressing Profit**: As of January 8, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1293 yuan/ton [71]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 1st week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with an operating rate of 0.0% [75]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%, and 0 tons in the previous month [79]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 323,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 15.00%, and an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous month [83]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was reported at 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry were reported at 605.7 billion yuan [87]. - **Demand - Side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [91]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Inventory**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with a flat month - on - month change [95]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96%, and a month - on - month decrease of 5900 tons compared with the previous month [99]. - **Demand - Side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was reported at 2.9779 million tons [103]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of January 9, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed down this week. The corresponding option implied volatility was 25.54%, a rebound of 8.85% compared with 16.69% last week, and it was at a relatively high level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared with a weekly increase of about 6.24%. There was a slight increase in the number of inquiring merchants in the late - Fuji production areas, and the trading atmosphere varied among different production areas. The fruit growers' supplies were mostly concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. The inventory removal speed in the main apple - producing areas increased slightly compared to last week but was still lower than the same period last year. The sales in the distribution market were still sluggish, but the rigid demand for festival stocking increased. The market may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared this week with a weekly increase of about 6.24% [4][9] - **Market Outlook**: In the late - Fuji production areas, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly. The fruit growers' supplies were concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning. As of January 7, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,600 tons from last week. The inventory removal speed increased slightly, but was still lower than the same period last year. In Shandong, the storage capacity ratio was 51.85%, a decrease of 0.57% from last week; in Shaanxi, it was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.80% from last week. The trading in Shandong's cold - storage was cold, and the overall volume of goods transferred was limited. Shaanxi's inventory removal speed was slightly faster than last week but still lower than the same period last year. The sales in the distribution market were still sluggish, but the rigid demand for festival stocking increased, and there may be a short - term upward trend [4] - **Future Trading Tips**: Fruit prices and consumption [5] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract soared this week with a weekly increase of about 6.24%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 8,206 lots, and the number of apple futures warrants was 0 [9][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of January 9, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit growers' goods of paper - bag red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty [19] 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Industry Chain 3.3.1.1. Supply - As of January 7, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,600 tons from last week. The inventory removal speed increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 51.85%, a decrease of 0.57% from last week; in Shaanxi, it was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.80% from last week [27] 3.3.1.2. Demand - As of January 8, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0). As of January 2, 2026, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.43 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.0 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 7.77 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.103 yuan per kilogram. In November 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 121,600 tons, with an export value of 123,853,780 US dollars and an average export price of 1,018.09 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 51.24% compared to October and 12.38% compared to November 2024 [31][36][43] 3.3.2. Options Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week was presented, but no specific data was given [44] 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - A graph of the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit and Vegetable was presented, but no in - depth analysis was provided [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the US Congress Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year, and the central bank in China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The industry situation indicates that after the holiday, more steel mills' blast furnaces resumed production, iron - water output increased, and the spot supply of iron ore was relatively stable. Although the port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, the in - plant inventory remained at a low level, and the firm spot price still supported the futures price. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions in the I2605 contract after a correction, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary Price - As of the close on January 9, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 814.5 (+25) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+20) yuan/dry ton [5]. Shipment - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.634 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million tons [5]. Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 969,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 27.564 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.55 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.129 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.823 million tons [5]. Demand - The daily average iron - water output was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [5]. Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.2848 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.8449 million tons [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.99 percentage points [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract fluctuated strongly. The price of the I2605 contract was stronger than that of the I2609 contract. On the 9th, the price difference was 21.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [12]. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 9, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,600, a week - on - week increase of 300. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 20,258, an increase of 1,592 compared with the previous week [19]. Spot Price - On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 869 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 9th, the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation Arrival Volume - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at 47 ports, 45 ports, and six northern ports in China increased [28]. Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3696 million tons, a decrease of 325,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 1.1419 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 916,500 tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 3.3529 million tons [32]. Steel Mill Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days [32]. Inventory Availability Days - As of January 8, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On January 8, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,718, a week - on - week decrease of 159 [36]. Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In November 2025, China's import of iron ore and its concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 769,000 tons compared with October, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.139202 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sample mines was 58.76%, a decrease of 1.41% compared with the previous period; the daily average output of fine powder was 371,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,000 tons; the inventory was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 133,000 tons [39]. Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative output was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the output of iron ore concentrates from 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [42]. 4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Output - In November 2025, China's crude steel output was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [45]. Steel Exports - In November 2025, China's steel exports were 9.98 million tons, an increase of 198,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%; a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, turning from a decline to an increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [45]. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Iron - Water Output - On January 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.80 percentage points. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [48]. 5. Options Market - The high iron ore port inventory and the correction of finished products will limit the rebound space of ore prices, but the overall spot price remains firm, which will still support the futures price in the medium and long term. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract after adjustment [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The egg market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The inventory of laying hens has continued to decline from a high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment of the breeding end is still lower than that of the same period last year, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the slight recovery of egg prices recently has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. In the short term, the near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level shock state, and the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month contracts under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed up. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3040 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 89 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level shock state, and the far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month contracts under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract fluctuated and rebounded. The position volume was 250,854 lots, an increase of 39,614 lots compared with last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,655, and the net short position decreased compared with last week's - 45,394 [10]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of eggs were 7 lots [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of eggs was reported at 3302 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 226 yuan per 500 kilograms compared with last week. The basis between the active March contract price of eggs and the average spot price was reported at + 262 yuan per ton [20]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 546 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of January 8, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.61 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: As of November 30, 2025, the laying hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The new chick index nationwide was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [39]. - **Elimination Index and Age**: As of November 30, 2025, the elimination laying hen index nationwide was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The elimination chicken age nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2351.37 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3200 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of January 2, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.39 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Elimination Chickens**: As of January 2, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main producing areas was reported at 7.9 yuan per kilogram [59]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, an increase of 1091.86 tons compared with 11,953.66 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 9.13%. It decreased by 349.02 tons compared with 13,394.53 tons in the previous month [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated widely. Silver price volatility intensified significantly, gold price stabilized and rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio rose. Geopolitical risks in Latin America boosted the safe - haven property of gold. US labor market data showed differentiation, but the service sector PMI was unexpectedly strong. If the Venezuela situation does not cool down quickly next week, non - farm payrolls are weak, and Fed officials signal rate cuts, the precious metals price center may remain high. In the medium - term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short - term correction risks should be watched out for. The recommended trading ranges for next week are 4300 - 4500 dollars per ounce for London gold and 70 - 85 dollars per ounce for London silver [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - This week, the precious metals market was affected by long - position profit - taking and fluctuations in Fed rate - cut expectations. The US taking tough action against Venezuela strengthened global geopolitical risk concerns. US initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 last week, still at a historically low level. In October, the US trade deficit narrowed by 39% month - on - month. US labor market data was divided, with ADP private employment and JOLTS job openings weaker than expected, but the ISM services index in December unexpectedly rebounded. Looking ahead to next week, if the Venezuela situation persists, non - farm payrolls are poor, and Fed officials hint at rate cuts, precious metals prices may remain high, but short - term correction risks due to concentrated long - position liquidation should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, a dip - buying strategy is recommended [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - This week, the precious metals market continued to oscillate strongly at a high level. As of January 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 rose 9.70% week - on - week, and the Shanghai gold main contract 2602 rose 2.96% week - on - week. This week, the net positions of foreign gold and silver ETFs had slight outflows. As of January 8, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.32% month - on - month, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1.40% month - on - month. As of December 30, 2025, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both decreased. This week, the basis of gold and silver strengthened. As of January 8, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 0.46 yuan per gram, with a basis ratio of 0.05%; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 970 yuan per kilogram, with a basis ratio of 5.26%. This week, the gold inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges increased, while silver inventories decreased [6][10][11] 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation 3.3.1 Silver Industry - As of November 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand increased. China's silver import volume was 263,505.88 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 9.90%, and the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, a month - on - month increase of 21.23%. Due to the growth in silver demand for semiconductors, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to stabilize. As of November 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [32][36][38] 3.3.2 Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 4%; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 22%; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The silver supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1,015.1 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 2%; the total silver demand was 1,164.1 million ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, a month - on - month decrease of 26% [44][48][50] 3.3.3 Gold Supply and Demand - According to the World Gold Council, in Q3 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly. Central banks net - purchased about 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, and a total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025 [54] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield stabilized and rebounded. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased. The US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy gold, about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons respectively [58][62][66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up over 9%. The four stock index futures also increased, with small and mid-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market had a good start in the first trading week of 2026. Market trading activity rebounded significantly compared to last week, and northbound capital trading became active again. [5][87] - Overseas, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, and the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in December hit a 17 - month low. Domestically, in December, both CPI and PPI increased, with the year - on - year increase of CPI expanding and the month - on - month change turning from decline to increase, and the decline of PPI narrowing. The three official PMI indices announced before the holiday rebounded from below the boom - bust line to the expansion range. Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. [87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | 3.13 | 0.71 | 4743.8 | | | IH2603 | 3.63 | 0.62 | 3134.8 | | | IC2603 | 9.17 | 2.99 | 8037.8 | | | IM2603 | 8.23 | 3.07 | 8048.4 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 2.79 | 0.45 | 4758.92 | | | SSE 50 | 3.40 | 0.39 | 3134.32 | | | CSI 500 | 7.92 | 2.05 | 8056.69 | | | CSI 1000 | 7.03 | 1.98 | 8129.18 | [8] 3.2. News Overview - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024. The ISM services PMI index rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024. [11] - ADP data showed that private - sector employment in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in the US in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the expected 7.6 million, hitting a new low since September 2024. The number of layoffs in December was 35,553, a 17 - month low. [11] - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year (previous value: 0.7%) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value: - 0.1%); PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.2%) and increased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value: 0.1%). [11] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82% weekly, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 9.80%, the SME 100 Index rose 4.94%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.89%. [14] - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 0.92%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.94%, the Nikkei 225 rose 3.18%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.41%. [15] - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors strengthening significantly. Only the banking sector fell. [19] - **Industry Sector Main Capital Flow**: Main capital in most industries showed a net outflow, with significant net outflows in the electronics, power equipment, and communication sectors. [22] - **SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates rose and then fell, and capital prices remained at a low level. [27] - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 11.98 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 164.993 billion yuan. Northbound capital had a total trading volume of 1266.11 billion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened. [30][38] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock index futures rose this week, and small and mid - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The economic climate has returned to the expansion range, and inflation recovery has a positive impact on the stock market at the macro - level. [87] - The US labor market is showing a mild recovery, pushing up the US dollar exchange rate. However, due to the settlement needs of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel, and the exchange rate remains strong, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter. [87] - Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the market has begun to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March in advance, and the spring market of A - shares is significantly advanced. [87]