Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw the exhaustion of previous positive factors, leading to a continued decline in rubber prices. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, with traders rotating and restocking, and tire factories making necessary restocks. The futures market maintained a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the downward trend. The enthusiasm of inventory holders to offer prices was average, and downstream restocking was coming to an end, with low inquiry enthusiasm and only moderate restocking at low prices, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather has improved, and the increasing output in the producing areas, combined with the decline in futures and spot prices, has led to a slight weakening of raw material prices. In Hainan, rainy weather has affected tapping operations, with fresh latex output hindered. Due to poor orders and profit margins, local processing factories have limited enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse has continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments have arrived at the port and been concentrated in storage, with the inbound volume at Qingdao warehouses increasing significantly and exceeding expectations. Previously, the orders of downstream tire factories were gradually shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a slight inventory accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels this week to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory, with overall operating rates making small adjustments. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance period in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will significantly drag down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market's previous positive factors were exhausted, with rubber prices falling. The import rubber market's offer prices dropped, and the futures market was weakly volatile. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the decline. Downstream restocking was ending, and trading was dull [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices weakened slightly, while Hainan's fresh latex output was affected by weather. Qingdao Port's inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate. Tire enterprises' operating rates were slightly adjusted, and some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15150 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12500 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.42%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.1% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of September 26, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 15 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 24, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, an increase of 920 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons, an increase of 303 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of September 24, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 24, the 20 - rubber basis was 847 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of September 24, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 55.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.8 (- 0.82) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of September 24, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Imports**: According to customs data, in August 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [45]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons, a decline of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decline of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous general trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Operating Rates**: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain their previous operating levels [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In August 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were close to 710,000 vehicles [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.09.26」 尿素市场周报 尿素期货价格走势 郑州尿素期货价格走势 • 本周郑州尿素主力合约价格震荡收涨，周度+0.48%。 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场继续下探，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1560-1620元/ 吨，均价环比下跌35元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分停车装置恢复，国内尿素日产量增加，本周暂无企业计划停车，2-5家停车企 业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量可能小幅波动。国内农业需求较为零散，局部农 业需求或有小幅提升，对尿素市场支撑有限。工业需求较为平稳，其中复合肥秋季肥生产进入后 期，华北大部需求转淡，企业减负荷停车或进一步增多，预计复合肥产能利用率维持小幅下降态 势。国庆长假的临近，尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单，主产销区主力工厂率先下调报价，以此来刺 激下游接货。近期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures being active but falling 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in certain regions entered the centralized maintenance stage, causing the primary lead output to continue to decline. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously decreasing and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis, increasing the cost for smelters to obtain raw materials and further restricting primary lead output. For recycled lead, affected by environmental inspections and the decline in waste battery recycling efficiency, the release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down. There is not much inventory of waste batteries in the market, and the arrival of goods at smelters is not good. Enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling long - term orders, and the overall operating rate remains low, continuously restricting recycled lead output. However, with the repair of production profits and the increase in the quantity of imported raw materials, some enterprises have the expectation of resuming production, but it is expected to be in early October, having limited impact on next week's supply. Overall, lead supply shows a stable and rising trend [7]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. Although the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is gradually warming up, in reality, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. After large battery enterprises' procurement gradually ended this week before the National Day, small and medium - sized factories are mostly cautious and have low willingness to receive goods. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend, making up for the shortage of demand in traditional fields to a certain extent. But overall, the overall demand has not shown an obvious explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [7]. - From the domestic and foreign inventory data, both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. The overall inventory decline indicates that demand has driven inventory depletion to a certain extent. The social inventory of domestic lead ingots has declined recently, providing some support for lead prices. However, as the pre - National Day inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises comes to an end, if demand cannot continue to follow up, the subsequent changes in inventory still need to be concerned [7]. - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. On the supply side, the output of primary lead and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing some support for prices. On the demand side, although the overall performance is average, it will not decline significantly under the background of "Golden September and Silver October" and the drive of emerging energy - storage field demand. The decline in inventory also provides some bottom - line support for prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for lead prices [7]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, and the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures fell 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is showing a stable and rising trend, while demand is in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory decline provides some support for lead prices. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Comparison**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead decreased slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 25, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was reported at $1,938 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was reported at 17,060 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was reported at 8.71 [9][13]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount strengthened. As of September 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was reported at - 110 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was reported at - 36.8 dollars per ton [15][17]. - **Inventory**: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of lead was reported at 4.22 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was reported at 219,550 tons, a decrease of 750 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was reported at 35,584 tons, a decrease of 13,791 tons [32][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 80.56%, a decrease of 0.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 0 tons compared with last week [23]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 18, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major production areas was reported at 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the average utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity was reported at 43.63%, a month - on - month increase of 8.78%. Near the Double Festival, the recycling of scrapped batteries increased, and the output increased slightly [27][30]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 3,417 tons. The import volume of lead alloy was 12,784 tons. The import volume of lead concentrate was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total import volume of lead ingots was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons, an increase of 106.70%; a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons, a decrease of 41.98%. Among them, the import volume of refined lead was 3,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons, an increase of 317.07%; a year - on - year decrease of 10,600 tons, a decrease of 75.63%. The import volume of crude lead was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,340 tons, an increase of 76.27%; a year - on - year increase of 1,090 tons, an increase of 12.27% [40]. Demand - side - **Processing Fees**: As of September 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was reported at 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was reported at - 90 dollars per thousand tons. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee declined, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat, which was generally negative for domestic production [43][45]. - **Automobile Market**: In August 2025, the overall automobile sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative automobile sales reached 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all showed growth trends. The new - energy vehicle sales in August were 1.395 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% and a year - on - year increase of 27%. The new - energy vehicle sales from January to August were 9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new automobile sales in August and 45.5% from January to August. The growth of automobile production and sales is accelerating, and the process of lithium replacing lead is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [47][50]. - **Battery Market**: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of waste lead electric storage 48V/20AH in Zhejiang was reported at 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,920 yuan per ton. The battery price remained flat, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased [52][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current bond market is intertwined with multiple factors. The economic data in August indicates that the pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" may continue, and the economic growth in the third quarter is under pressure. Coupled with the increasing expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, it provides some support for the current bond market. However, in the absence of incremental positive factors, the market is sensitive to negative news. The uncertainty of the new regulations on public bond funds continues to disrupt the market, and bearish sentiment still dominates. There are also differences in the market's expectations for loose monetary policies. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and at the same time, pay attention to the trading opportunities of long - term term spreads brought about by the steepening of the yield curve [102]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data of Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of Treasury bond futures all declined this week. The TL2512 (30 - year) contract fell 0.53%, the T2512 (10 - year) contract fell 0.14%, the TF2512 (5 - year) contract fell 0.13%, and the TS2512 (2 - year) contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased. The open interests of the TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the TS main contract decreased [11][15][21][29]. - **Price Changes of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of the top two cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds for each contract term also changed. For example, the price of 210005.IB (18y) for the 30 - year contract decreased by 1.18 [12]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic Policy News**: On September 19, the central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market. On September 22, the loan prime rate (LPR) remained unchanged. On September 24, the central bank planned to conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan medium - term lending facility (MLF) operation, with a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan this month. Also on September 24, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued 13 measures to support service exports. On September 25, the scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time [32][33]. - **Overseas News**: On September 25, the US announced that the annualized final value of real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.8% quarter - on - quarter. The US President Trump announced that starting from October 1, the US will impose a new round of high - tariff policies on multiple categories of imported products [33][34]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury bond yields widened slightly. The spread between the TF and TS main contracts widened slightly, and the spread between the T and TF main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - term spread of the 10 - year contract narrowed, while that of the 30 - year contract widened. The inter - term spread of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [42][48][52][59]. - **Changes in Main Contract Positions**: The net long positions of the top 20 holders of the T Treasury bond futures main contract increased significantly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Bond Yields**: Overnight and 2 - week Shibor rates decreased, while 1 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.53%. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened across the board, with the yields of 1 - 7 - year maturities rising by 1.8 - 4bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 0.9bp and 0.4bp to 1.80% and 2.22% respectively [70]. - **Sino - US Treasury Bond Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year Sino - US Treasury bond yields widened slightly, and the spread between 30 - year Sino - US Treasury bond yields narrowed slightly [74]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 24674 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 6000 billion yuan in MLF injections in the open market. With 18268 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 3000 billion yuan in MLF maturing, the net injection was 9406 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.53% [79]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 14184.42 billion yuan, and the total repayment amount was 16612.56 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 2428.14 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1152, with a cumulative depreciation of 21 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB strengthened [86]. - **US Treasury Bond Yields and Volatility Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds fluctuated upwards, and the VIX index increased [92]. - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds increased, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamental Situation**: In August, the growth rates of industrial added value, social retail sales, and exports declined compared with previous values. The scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate increased seasonally. In terms of financial data, the growth rate of social financing slowed down slightly in August, and the support of government bonds for social financing weakened. Although new loans turned positive, the credit growth rate continued to weaken, and overall demand remained weak. Since July, the economic recovery has continued to slow down [101]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US economic growth momentum is stronger than expected. The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%. The labor market remains resilient, and inflation is still sticky. Market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed this year have cooled [101]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see. At the same time, pay attention to the trading opportunities of long - term term spreads brought about by the steepening of the yield curve [102].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.9.26」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 图1、国内股指期货结算价 图2、国债期货结算价：2、5、10年期 2000.0000 3000.0000 4000.0000 5000.0000 6000.0000 7000.0000 8000.0000 上证50期货 沪深300期货 中证500期货 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 4 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 CFFEX2年期国债期货 CFFEX5年期国债期货 CFFEX10年期国债期货 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 +1.07% | 10 年国债到期收益率+0.05%/本周变动+0.10BP | | | 沪深 300 股指 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread for Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 0.5 thousand tons, up 1.3 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 395.9 thousand tons, up 15.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly automobile output is 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2]. f. Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and the US will enter an easing cycle; FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; San Francisco Fed President Daly thinks further rate cuts may be needed; the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025; the US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery; the Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices; the "Fed whisperer" indicates that Powell's remarks suggest further rate cuts may be possible; Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [2]. g. View Summary - The Fed's news has opened up rate - cut space, which has a positive impact on the market sentiment; on the supply side, some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, the raw material market is in tight balance, and the recycled lead production is restricted; on the demand side, the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the demand in emerging fields is good, but the overall demand is still in a slow - recovery stage; the overall inventory has decreased, indicating that demand has effectively reduced inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 25, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5786, up 0.94%. On the spot side, the spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5480. From a macro perspective, the global crude steel output from January to August decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. In terms of supply and demand, after the profit improved in the early stage, the output rebounded rapidly. Most manufacturers hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. In the short term, the cost was somewhat supportive. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was - 360 yuan/ton. In the market, the tender price of HBIS Group's 75B silicon ferroalloy in September was set at 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation. [2] - On September 25, the ferromanganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5938, up 0.47%. On the spot side, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5740, up 20 yuan/ton. From a macro perspective, on September 23, South Korea decided to impose anti - dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel hot - rolled coils originating from China and Japan. Fundamentally, the output has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and the inventory has rebounded significantly this period. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 253,000 tons. On the demand side, the molten iron production has rebounded to the previous level. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 55 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was - 145 yuan/ton. In the market, the final price of ferromanganese silicon of HBIS Group in September was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton month - on - month. Technically, the daily K - line was between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (ferromanganese silicon) main contract closing price was 5938 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF (silicon ferroalloy) main contract closing price was 5786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 529,129 lots, down 9301 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 369,202 lots, down 1439 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in ferromanganese silicon was - 70,716 lots, down 823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in silicon ferroalloy was - 33,704 lots, down 999 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 102 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 59,475 pieces, down 539 pieces; SF warehouse receipts were 17,710 pieces, down 69 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ferromanganese silicon FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia was 5740 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Yunnan it was 5680 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai it was 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia it was 5480 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average value of the ferromanganese silicon index was 5717 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 306 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 198 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.525 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of ferromanganese silicon enterprises was 45.68%, down 1.70 percentage points; the operating rate of silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - The supply of ferromanganese silicon was 208,775 tons, down 5355 tons; the supply of silicon ferroalloy was 113,100 tons, up 100 tons [2]. - The inventory of ferromanganese silicon manufacturers was 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons; the inventory of silicon ferroalloy manufacturers was 63,390 tons, down 6550 tons [2]. - The inventory days of ferromanganese silicon in national steel mills was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the inventory days of silicon ferroalloy in national steel mills was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for ferromanganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426 tons, down 888 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.6 tons, down 148.8 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel output was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On September 24, the US announced to reduce the tariff on imported cars from the EU to 15%, effective retroactively from August 1 [2]. - On September 23, 190 mining companies in Indonesia were subject to administrative penalties for failing to provide reclamation and follow production quotas, and their operations were suspended for up to 60 days. Most of the coal mines shut down were long - term shut - down mines, so the impact on current coal production and exports in Indonesia was limited [2]. - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026), proposing to strictly control the production capacity of cement and glass, prohibit the addition of new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity, and new or renovated projects must formulate production capacity replacement plans [2]. - According to the World Steel Association, the global crude steel output in August was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to August, the global crude steel output decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, reaching 1.2306 billion tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨扰动仍存，加工厂采购需求旺盛使原料价格坚挺；台风“桦加沙”影响海南产区割胶作业，原料供应收紧 [2] - 近期青岛港口库存延续降库但降幅缩窄，保税库继续去库，一般贸易库延续小幅累库，海外船货到港集中入库，入库量超预期，保税库出库量好于一般贸易库 [2] - 上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动，半钢胎内销雪地胎订单集中排产期支撑开工，全钢胎替换市场需求未明显提升且部分企业外贸出口有压力，部分企业库存有提升迹象，短期企业产能利用率可能小幅下调 [2] - ru2601合约短线预计在15400 - 16000区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12300 - 12800区间波动 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 沪胶主力合约收盘价15570元/吨，环比 - 50；20号胶主力合约收盘价12430元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶1 - 5价差55元/吨，环比 - 20；20号胶11 - 12价差10元/吨，环比 - 35 [2] - 沪胶与20号胶价差3140元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶主力合约持仓量152529手，环比 - 799；20号胶主力合约持仓量51920手，环比 - 2296 [2] - 沪胶前20名净持仓 - 27840，环比 - 1019；20号胶前20名净持仓 - 13209，环比 - 1525 [2] - 沪胶交易所仓单153570吨，环比 - 2260；20号胶交易所仓单44756吨，环比 - 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 上海市场国营全乳胶14850元/吨，环比 - 50；上海市场越南3L 15250元/吨，环比0 [2] - 泰标STR20 1870美元/吨，环比35；马标SMR20 1870美元/吨，环比35 [2] - 泰国人民币混合胶14880元/吨，环比100；马来西亚人民币混合胶14830元/吨，环比100 [2] - 齐鲁石化丁苯1502 12100元/吨，环比0；齐鲁石化顺丁BR9000 11700元/吨，环比0 [2] - 沪胶基差 - 720元/吨，环比100；沪胶主力合约非标准品基差 - 740元/吨，环比5 [2] - 青岛市场20号胶13220元/吨，环比40；20号胶主力合约基差790元/吨，环比75 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 泰国生胶烟片市场参考价59.35泰铢/公斤，环比 - 0.38；胶片市场参考价57.3泰铢/公斤，环比0 [2] - 胶水市场参考价55.3泰铢/公斤，环比0；杯胶市场参考价50.8泰铢/公斤，环比0.35 [2] - RSS3理论生产利润151美元/吨，环比 - 7.6；STR20理论生产利润 - 5美元/吨，环比12 [2] - 技术分类天然橡胶月度进口量11.31万吨，环比 - 0.88；混合胶月度进口量26.84万吨，环比0.89 [2] - 全钢胎开工率65.66%，环比0.07；半钢胎开工率73.66%，环比0.2 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 全钢轮胎山东库存天数39.13天，环比0.3；半钢轮胎山东库存天数46.02天，环比0.08 [2] - 全钢胎当月产量1303万条，环比28；半钢胎当月产量5806万条，环比109 [2] 3.5 Option Market - 标的历史20日波动率15.59%，环比 - 0.13；标的历史40日波动率15.17%，环比 - 1.25 [2] - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率23.31%，环比0.36；平值看跌期权隐含波动率23.33%，环比0.36 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 截至2025年9月21日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存46.12万吨，环比降0.36万吨，降幅0.76%；保税区库存6.94万吨，降幅5.07%；一般贸易库存39.18万吨，增幅0.04% [2] - 青岛天然橡胶样本保税仓库入库率增加0.59个百分点，出库率减少2.91个百分点；一般贸易仓库入库率增加1.32个百分点，出库率增加1.78个百分点 [2] - 截至9月18日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率72.74%，环比 + 0.13个百分点，同比 - 6.92个百分点；全钢胎样本企业产能利用率66.36%，环比 + 0.05个百分点，同比 + 6.18个百分点 [2] 3.7 Suggested Attention - 周四隆众轮胎样本企业开工率 [2]

玉米系产业日报 2025-09-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 1 | 2165 | | 2474 | 5 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 3 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -63 | 吨) | 13 | 6 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -17708 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | | | | | | 期货市场 | | 729266 | | 172607 | -12616 | | | -14837 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -35819 | | -38499 | -2878 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -2000 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 21814 | 手) | 8250 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日, ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10142 | 221 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2444 | 49 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 484 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) 347712 | 0 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) 41507 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 101 378057 | 25 -20054 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 39516 | 21725 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -51747 | 21457 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 8057 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 9245 | 0 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 617.6 | 0.3 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5281 | 1 | | 现货市场 | 现货价:菜油:江苏(日,元/吨) 10 ...