1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trades, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and off - season demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,650 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,866 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,136 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,340 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 85 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; that of alumina was - 197 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 290 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 379,081 lots, up 190,088 lots; that of alumina were 545,795 lots, up 8,133 lots; that of cast aluminum alloy were 21,990 lots, up 342 lots [2] - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 51,775 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 497,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventories were 143,828 tons, up 14,010 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,288 tons, down 505 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE warrants were 97,413 tons, up 6,501 tons [2] - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 61,512 lots, down 14,748 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.86, down 0.01; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy in SHFE were 69,285 tons, down 637 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,340 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,580 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,060 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan [2] - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 610 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 8.30 US dollars/ton, up 14.67 US dollars; the basis of alumina was - 286 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices**: The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap was 18,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - **Production and Utilization Rates**: The alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 85.00%, down 1.51 percentage points; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 26.58 million tons, down 11.40 million tons [2] - **Trade Volume**: China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export volume was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export volume of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import volume was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - related**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.90 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; the primary aluminum import volume was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 98.31%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - **Demand - related**: The aluminum product production was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons; the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 173.90 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 21.09%, up 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.06%, up 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 33.65%, up 0.0890 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.70, up 0.0471 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [2] - The State Council executive meeting deployed a series of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination [2] - The National Commerce Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, the national business system should focus on eight aspects of work [2] - In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. It is expected that the retail sales volume of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a state of wide - range low - level oscillation. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones under the expectation of declining production capacity, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active futures contract for eggs is 3020 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous period; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is - 20024 hands, a decrease of 1369 hands; the monthly spread (5 - 9) of egg futures is - 384 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 9 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract for eggs is 270221 hands, an increase of 19367 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume for eggs is 5 hands, a decrease of 2 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.4 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.09 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 377 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 115 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 2.21; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 13.26; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.9 yuan/feather, an increase of 0.1 yuan; the new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 26.53; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kilogram, unchanged; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.29 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.1 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas is 8.16 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.26 yuan; the culled hen age nationwide is 500 days, a decrease of 10 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.14 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.51 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.67 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.07 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the export volume of fresh eggs in the current month is 13394.53 tons, an increase of 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales area is 7377 tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 6.77 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.23 yuan compared to yesterday; in Hebei, it is 6.37 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.22 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 7.47 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.40 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.84 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.24 yuan. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling volume of old hens, and the laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, with a slight improvement in the market atmosphere [2]

铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 822.50 | +8.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 654,834 | +14950↑ | | 期货市场 | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 20.5 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25792 | -5534↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,600.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 109.1 | +0.64↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 881 | +6↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 877 | +5↑ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 776 | +2↑ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 55 | -3↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 10 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week is 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The sample point inventory decreased month - on - month. The acquisition in the producing areas is basically over, and the overall circulation of market goods is stable. Traders commonly hoard raw materials in Xinjiang. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the festival stocking demand is expected to drive the market into a phased peak of sales. Subsequently, it is necessary to focus on the actual sales speed of the terminal and the inventory performance of channels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of red dates is 9,160 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 123,832 lots, a decrease of 1,231 lots compared with the previous period; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 270 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 2,820, an increase of 297; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 472, a decrease of 143 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6.5 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.1 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Alar is 5.65 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.15 yuan/jin, the unified price of red dates in Aksu is 5.15 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 9.5 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 9.52 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 8.8 yuan/kg, all with no change compared with the previous period [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares compared with the previous period [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 15,300 tons, with a decrease of 349 tons compared with the previous week; the monthly export volume of red dates is 3,537,566 kg, an increase of 1,332,346 kg compared with the previous period; the cumulative export volume of red dates is 29,291,188 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, with a decrease of 2,981.06 tons compared with the previous period; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the output of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average daily arrival volume of red dates in Ruyifang Market is 0.8 vehicles, and the monthly average wholesale price of red dates is 10.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 yuan/kg compared with the previous period [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the parking area of Hebei Cuierzhuang Market, more than 20 vehicles arrived, mainly with sub - standard products and a small amount of finished products. Merchants purchased according to demand, and the price remained stable. In Guangdong Ruyifang Market, 13 vehicles arrived, and some arrival prices were relatively low. The market supply was sufficient, and about 2 vehicles were traded in the morning market. The acquisition of Xinjiang grey dates is over, and the market focus has shifted to the consumer end [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish and volatile market outlook for the rebar industry, advising investors to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoint - On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with increased positions. Despite the weakening downstream demand for rebar during the off - season, the current macro - environment is positive, and market expectations are optimistic. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the position volume is 1,726,703 lots, up 11,840 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 19,314 lots, up 9,160 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread is - 46 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 75,421 tons, down 1,212 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 146 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,436 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 834 yuan/wet ton, up 14 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 162.7994 million tons, up 4.18 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 439,800 tons, down 46,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4586 million tons, up 20,300 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.33%, up 0.37%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.06%, up 0.78%; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.4075 million tons, up 141,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.9104 million tons, up 28,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 41.88%, up 0.62%. The inventory at sample steel mills is 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 70.83%, up 1.04%. The monthly output of crude steel in China is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 2.60%, down 0.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 15.90%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan; the total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2026, China's industrial economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality, and the government will focus on four aspects: "stabilize", "expand", "innovate", and "increase" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed meal prices continue to decline and perform weaker than soybean meal [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a destocking mode, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseeds for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, there is pressure on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 8980 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2330 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 623.4 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 18 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 64 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 256330 lots, up 11209 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 827782 lots, up 18437 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 18798 lots, down 7881 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 121734 lots, down 14391 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 2292 sheets, up 250 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 84 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9906.25 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7481.85 yuan/ton, down 54.33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 758 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 70 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 750 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly import quantity of rapeseed is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.63%, up 0.44%; that of at - the - money put options is 21.64%, up 0.37%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.67%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.49%, down 0.66% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.53%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, up 0.12%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.78%, up 0.41%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.42%, up 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 9 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, but recorded a strong weekly increase. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 2.20 Canadian dollars or 0.35%, settling at 623.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report, and analysts expect a slight downward adjustment of the US soybean production forecast [2]. - The MPOB report shows that as of the end of December, the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 3.05 million tons, reaching the highest level in the same period in five years. However, high - frequency data shows that the supply side continued to reduce production this month, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in the first ten days. In addition, Indonesia may confiscate another 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year and may increase the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy, which is beneficial to palm oil prices [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 碳酸锂产业日报 2026/1/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 156,060.00 | +12640.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -137,883.00 | +5135.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 506,702.00 | -4172.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -10,660.00 | -6360.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 25,970.0 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current national cotton inspection is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up increases, and Brazilian cotton arrives in a concentrated manner, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. However, the general market expectation of a decline in the cotton planting area in the new year supports the cotton market to some extent. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise, and the impact of macro and policies should be focused on [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price: 14,625 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price: 20,640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 170,777 lots, up 6,745 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,850 lots, up 98 lots - Cotton main - contract positions: 817,953 lots, down 31,033 lots; cotton yarn main - contract positions: 16,185 lots, down 631 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 7,768 sheets, unchanged; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 60 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,857 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,531 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tariff): 13,691 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan - Imported cotton yarn arrival price (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,021 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; imported cotton yarn arrival price (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s): 22,348 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,443 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons - Cotton import volume: 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 2,239 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey - cloth inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days - Cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output: 2.039 million tons, up 0.038 million tons - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, up 1,017,314.08 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 13.35%, down 1.46%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 13.34%, down 1.47% - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.2%, up 0.31%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.79%, up 0.09% [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial cotton inventory is increasing. As of January 9, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.573 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 284,200 tons (a 5.37% increase). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 4.6841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 192,600 tons (a 4.29% increase), and the commercial cotton in the inland area was 489,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 89,400 tons (a 22.35% increase) - According to the USDA report, in the week ending January 1, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 98,000 bales, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of U.S. upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 154,000 bales, a 9% increase from the previous week and an 18% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The U.S. cotton export contract volume continued to decline [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo a strong adjustment, with attention on the MA10 support level in the range of 2.38 - 2.45 [3]. - On the macro - front, the US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore purchases has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profit of domestic smelters has shrunk, so production is expected to continue to be restricted [3]. - The export window may close again as the LME zinc price has corrected recently and the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while there are some bright spots in the automotive and other sectors due to policy support [3]. - The downstream market mainly makes purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, and domestic inventories have increased significantly. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the price has risen with an increase in positions, showing a strong bullish sentiment and resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,125 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 155 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts is - 50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,153.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 222,360 lots, a month - on - month increase of 4,307 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,583 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 427 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 107,450 tons, a day - on - day decrease of 550 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 24,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 110 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 24,210 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 410 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 43.99 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,070 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social inventory of zinc is 113,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 20.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 1.35%. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the annual increase was the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero [3]. - China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month turn to a 0.2% increase. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI to 0.8% was the highest since March 2023, mainly driven by the expansion of food price increases, with the fresh vegetable price increase at 18.2%. The month - on - month turn from a decrease to an increase in CPI was mainly affected by the price increase of industrial consumer goods excluding energy. The prices of communication tools, mother - and - baby products, etc. all increased, and the gold jewelry price increased by 5.6%. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices pulled up the prices of related domestic industries [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai tin to operate strongly in the short - term, with attention on the MA5 support and testing the upper 390,000 - yuan mark. The macro - situation involves the US non - farm payrolls in December being lower than expected, leading to market expectations of about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. In China, the December CPI hit a 34 - month high. Fundamentally, the domestic tin ore import supply is tight, processing fees are low, and refined tin production is expected to be limited. The demand side shows that downstream procurement is active, and inventory decline is better than expected [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 376,920 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24,380 yuan/ton. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is - 710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 250 yuan/ton. LME 3 - month tin is at 45,560 US dollars/ton, up 1,810 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 50,635 lots, an increase of 9,898 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 786 lots, an increase of 1,693 lots. LME tin total inventory is 5,415 tons, up 10 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 6,333 tons, a decrease of 96 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 368,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 370,680 yuan/ton, up 19,980 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,200 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 30 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 356,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 360,550 yuan/ton, up 18,800 yuan/ton, and its processing fee is 8,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,890 yuan/ton, up 11,790 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, an increase of 0.1447 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, with the annual increase being the lowest since 2020. After the data release, the market expects about 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and zero probability of a January cut. China's December CPI year - on - year increase hit a 34 - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by food prices, and the month - on - month increase was due to non - energy industrial consumer goods. PPI decreased year - on - year for the 39th consecutive month, and the month - on - month increase expanded [3]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - No news today [3]