Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Rebar Industry Chain 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increased positions. The five - department joint plan aims for a 4% annual growth in the steel industry's added - value in the next two years. Rebar weekly production declined, while terminal demand recovered, inventory dropped, and apparent demand continued to rise. Short - term demand in South China may decrease due to the typhoon, and pre - holiday market fluctuations are large. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD of the RB2601 contract shows a downward adjustment. Short - term trading is recommended with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; position: 1,881,412 lots, up 20,270 lots; top 20 net positions: - 221,058 lots, down 51,645 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread: - 57 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 273,090 tons, up 32,859 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 185 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight): 3,405 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; RB main contract basis: 165 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 90 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 797 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - free): 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 138.0422 million tons, down 489,100 tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 422,100 tons, down 15,500 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.449 million tons, up 112,900 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84%, up 0.15%; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization: 90.38%, up 0.18%; sample steel mill rebar production: 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization: 45.26%, down 1.2%; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 67.71%, down 2.08%; domestic crude steel production: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly production: 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons; steel net export volume: 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.05, down 0.28; cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed asset investment: 0.5%, down 1.1%; cumulative year - on - year growth of real estate development investment: - 12.9%, down 0.9%; cumulative year - on - year growth of infrastructure construction investment: 2%, down 1.2%; cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - Typhoon "Huajiacha" is expected to land on the coast of western and central Guangdong on the 24th, bringing severe wind, rain, and waves from the 23rd to the 25th. Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a delegation of US House of Representatives members and called for promoting stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 23, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5698, up 0.11%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5480. With the "steady growth and anti - involution" core of the steel industry's steady - growth work plan, considering supply - demand, profit, and market aspects, the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. For manganese silicon, on September 23, the 2601 contract was reported at 5882, down 0.03%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5700. Based on the macro - situation, fundamentals, profit, and market conditions, it is also expected to move in a volatile manner. Investors should pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - SM (manganese silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,882.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan; SF (silicon ferroalloy)主力合约收盘价 was 5,698.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan. SM期货合约持仓量 was 538,430.00 hands, down 10,244.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 370,641.00 hands, down 19,135.00 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in SM were - 69,051.00 hands, down 3,157.00 hands; for SF, it was - 32,025.00 hands, up 735.00 hands. The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 110.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan. The SM warehouse receipts were 59,497.00 sheets, down 629.00 sheets; the SF warehouse receipts were 17,232.00 sheets, down 243.00 sheets [2] 2. Spot Market - In Inner Mongolia, the price of FeMn68Si18 was 5,700.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; in Guizhou, it was 5,790.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 5,700.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The manganese silicon index average was 5,717.00 yuan/ton, up 59.00 yuan. The SM主力合约基差 was - 182.00 yuan/ton, down 62.00 yuan. In Inner Mongolia, the price of FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5,370.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; in Ningxia, it was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SF主力合约基差 was - 218.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) at Tianjin Port was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged. The price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 760.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan. The manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.70%; the silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged. The manganese silicon supply was 208,775.00 tons, down 5,355.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 113,100.00 tons, up 100.00 tons. The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 198,900.00 tons, up 32,100.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 63,390.00 tons, down 6,550.00 tons. The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426.00 tons, down 888.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.60 tons, down 148.80 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18%. The crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2] 6. Industry News - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Financial Regulatory Administration led the establishment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, with white - list project loans exceeding 7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments issued the "Notice on the Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Iron and Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)". From 2025 to 2026, the added value of the iron and steel industry will grow at an average annual rate of about 4%. Precise regulation of production capacity and output will be implemented, classification management of steel enterprises will be promoted, and new production capacity will be strictly prohibited. Efforts will be made to ensure the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal. Berkshire began to gradually reduce its holdings of BYD stocks purchased in 2008 in August 2022, and its shareholding was below 5% in June last year [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed. The bonded warehouse continued to reduce inventory, while the general trade warehouse continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas ship arrivals were concentrated for warehousing, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The downstream tire factory orders were gradually picked up and shipped out, but the quantity was limited. The outbound volume of the bonded warehouse was better than that of the general trade warehouse, and the general trade warehouse continued to show a small - scale inventory accumulation state [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated narrowly last week. The domestic sales of snow - tire orders for semi - steel tires were in the concentrated production scheduling period, and some enterprises still moderately increased production, which still provided some support for the overall operation rate. The demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires did not improve significantly, and some enterprises faced pressure in foreign trade exports. Although some enterprises still had a shortage of goods, the overall shipment performance was lower than expected, and the inventory of some enterprises still showed an upward trend. To relieve the pressure, some enterprises might flexibly control production, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises might be slightly reduced. The ru2601 contract is expected to range between 15300 - 15750 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15525 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12395 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 5 yuan/ton; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton; the spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was - 60 yuan/ton [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 154459 lots, a decrease of 6812 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58722 lots, a decrease of 26137 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were 3683 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were 2489 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 155020 tons, a decrease of 60 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 44856 tons, a decrease of 403 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 was 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR 9000 was 11700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Foreign Rubber Prices**: The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Prices**: The market reference price of Thai RSS3 was 59.67 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai STR20 was 55.8 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.15 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 7.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 151 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars [2]. - **Import Volumes**: The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 11.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 26.84 million tons, an increase of 0.89 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07%; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.66%, an increase of 0.2%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 39.13 days, an increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.02 days, an increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 28 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5806 million pieces, an increase of 109 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.06%, a decrease of 1.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.41%, a decrease of 0.42%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.94%, a decrease of 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.97%, a decrease of 0.15% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.36 million tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 6.94 million tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory was 39.18 million tons, an increase of 0.04%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [2]. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]. - In the coming first week (September 21 - 27, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the precipitation in most of the remaining areas was at a medium level, which had an enhanced impact on rubber tapping. There were no red areas south of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which had a weakened impact on rubber tapping [2].

续，全球原油中长期供强于需预期给到油价一定压力，只是短期地缘局势仍有不确定性。EB2511日度运行 免责声明 区间预计在6800-6920附近。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | -58 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6870 | | 234360 | -19113 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 13828 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 418956 | | 6870 | -58 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 21306 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | | | | | | | 400920 | | -29445 | 3707 | | 手) | 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 10121 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) -136 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing a certain support at the bottom. It is recommended to mainly take short - long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8288 yuan/ton; the main contract holding volume is 87189 hands, a decrease of 6698 hands; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures holdings is 700 hands, an increase of 348 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above), Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial), and Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above first - grade secondary fruit farmers' goods) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple annual output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 70000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export amount of apples is 6973.9 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1589295.5 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 31.8 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.24%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.21%, an increase of 0.09% [2] Industry News - The trading of early - maturing Fuji in the western region has basically ended. Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji in many places such as Yan'an and Weinan has been postponed. There are sporadic orders from merchants, and the price is not much different from that of early - maturing Fuji. The trading of Hongjiangjun in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, and the transaction price fluctuates and adjusts due to the volume of goods on the market. The transaction price range of Hongjiangjun in the new - season Shandong is large due to quality issues, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious [2] Viewpoint Summary - The double - festival stocking is progressing gradually. The bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji is sporadic, and the rainfall in the western region may postpone the large - scale bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji. As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from last week. Affected by the trading of medium - maturing varieties, the inventory shipment speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The de - stocking speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. Local small merchants tend to choose Hongjiangjun with lower prices. The price of high - quality goods in the warehouse is relatively stable, while the price of fruit farmers' goods is weak [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 23, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1217.5, down 0.94%. On the spot side, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. Macroscopically, China's September LPR quotes remained unchanged. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal varieties have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has rebounded, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend [2]. - On September 23, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1717.5, down 0.67%. On the spot side, the second - round price cut of coke has been implemented. Macroscopically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan for stabilizing the growth of the steel industry. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 2410200 tons, an increase of 4700 tons, with pig iron output fluctuating at a high level, and the coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 17 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a fluctuating and bullish trend [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1217.50元/吨，环比持平；J主力合约收盘价为1717.50元/吨，环比下降0.50元 [2] - JM期货合约持仓量为938864.00手，环比减少11172.00手；J期货合约持仓量为52233.00手，环比减少264.00手 [2] - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 117153.00手，环比增加8204.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5587.00手，环比减少205.00手 [2] - JM5 - 1月合约价差为96.50元/吨，环比增加7.50元；J5 - 1月合约价差为143.50元/吨，环比增加10.00元 [2] - 焦煤仓单为0.00张，环比持平；焦炭仓单为1540.00张，环比减少10.00张 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1020.00元/吨，环比上涨11.00元；俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为151.50美元/湿吨，环比上涨2.50美元 [2] - 唐山一级冶金焦价格为1665.00元/吨，环比持平；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1470.00元/吨，环比持平 [2] - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1630.00元/吨，环比持平；京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，环比持平 [2] - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1270.00元/吨，环比持平；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1080.00元/吨，环比持平 [2] - JM主力合约基差为52.50元/吨，环比持平；J主力合约基差为 - 52.50元/吨，环比上涨0.50元 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.80万吨，环比增加1.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为304.40万吨，环比增加23.80万吨 [2] - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比增加0.02%；原煤产量为39049.70万吨，环比增加951.00万吨 [2] - 煤及褐煤进口量为4274.00万吨，环比增加713.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.00万吨，环比增加4.40万吨 [2] - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为515.32万吨，环比增加48.97万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为260.80万吨，环比增加2.49万吨 [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为940.41万吨，环比增加56.87万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为66.41万吨，环比减少1.43万吨 [2] - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为790.34万吨，环比减少3.39万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为644.67万吨，环比增加11.38万吨 [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.74天，环比减少0.07天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.42天，环比增加0.13天 [2] - 炼焦煤进口量为1016.22万吨，环比增加55.50万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为55.00万吨，环比减少34.00万吨 [2] - 炼焦煤产量为4089.38万吨，环比增加25.00万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为75.87%，环比减少0.05% [2] - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 17.00元/吨，环比减少52.00元；焦炭产量为4259.70万吨，环比增加74.20万吨 [2] 3.4 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.00%，环比增加0.15%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为90.38%，环比增加0.18% [2] - 粗钢产量为7736.86万吨，环比减少228.96万吨 [2] 3.5 Industry News - 9月22日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示介绍“十四五”时期金融业发展情况，不涉及短期政策调整 [2] - 据财新报道，中国计划9月底出台新型政策性金融工具，规模5000亿元，投向数字经济、人工智能等八大领域 [2] - 中国9月LPR报价维持不变，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，1年期LPR为3% [2] - 金融监管总局局长李云泽称“十四五”期间组建城市房地产融资协调机制，白名单项目贷款超7万亿元，支持近2000万套住房建设交付 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current jujube market is at a critical period of transition between old and new seasons. The main - producing areas' grey jujubes are in the sugar - increasing stage. The physical inventory of 36 sample points in the jujube market this week is 9247 tons, a decrease of 74 tons from last week, a 0.79% month - on - month decrease and an 80.64% year - on - year increase. The arrival volume in the sales area market is small, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is weak. There is a technical repair in jujube prices on the market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to holiday stocking [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujube is 10,780 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 45 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 153,661 lots, an increase of 3,842 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,690 lots, a decrease of 35 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,640 sheets, a decrease of 683 sheets, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 58 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of jujube in various regions are mostly stable. For example, the general - grade jujube price in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.75 yuan/jin, and the special - grade jujube price in Hebei has increased by 0.16 yuan/kg to 10.46 yuan/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,247 tons, a decrease of 74 tons from last week. The monthly jujube export volume is 2,364,893 kg, an increase of 580,729 kg, and the cumulative monthly export volume is 21,264,731 kg, an increase of 2,364,893 kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes of好想你is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative quarterly year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Hebei Cui'erzhuang market has no arrivals due to weather, with narrow price fluctuations, and downstream purchases as needed. The Guangdong Ruyifang market has 2 trucks of arrivals, with reference prices for special - grade jujubes at 11.80 yuan/kg and second - grade jujubes at 9.00 - 9.10 yuan/kg, and there is a small amount of morning trading [2]

数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 明显利好驱动，预计震荡偏弱。操作上，建议观望为主。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5444 | -8 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 474011 | 17181 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profit, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to lay out long positions when the lead price is low [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,085 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Shanghai lead position is 98,958 lots, down 1,965 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 280 lots, down 334 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 41,610 tons, down 2,747 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the LME lead inventory is 221,675 tons, up 1,375 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,170 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 45.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.44 US dollars; the price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS monthly supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG monthly supply - demand balance of lead is - 500 tons, up 1,300 tons; the ILZSG global lead ore monthly output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries is 10,137.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,157.48 points, up 31.88 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.7524 million, up 242,400; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [3]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason for further rate cuts this year and expects only one cut; Musalem thinks the space for further rate cuts is limited and won't support it if inflation risks increase; Harker is cautious about lifting policy restrictions; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2% and doesn't support adjusting the 2% inflation target. The US Treasury Secretary signals support for Argentina, and the Argentine stock market strengthens. The White House may exempt doctors' H - 1B visa fees. There are also other news such as the possible non - impact of the Saudi - Pakistani defense agreement on Saudi oil supply to India, the US energy minister's view on offshore wind power, France's recognition of the Palestinian state, Nvidia's plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI, and Pfizer's acquisition of Metersa [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, some primary lead smelters in regions like Henan and Inner Mongolia are in the centralized maintenance stage. The raw - material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously falling and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis. The output of primary lead continues to decline. For recycled lead, due to environmental inspections and lower waste - battery recycling efficiency, capacity release has slowed down, and the operation remains at a low level in the short term. In the waste - battery market, as it is the off - season for scrapping, there are not many stocks, and the arrival of goods at refineries is poor, which restricts the output of recycled lead. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries, the main consumption area of lead, is relatively stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is gradually warming up, and the market expects an increase in demand for lead in the main consumption areas. The energy - storage demand in emerging fields is also good. However, when the price rises, the spot trading is average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. Although the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting has improved marginally and some battery factories have production - increase plans, the overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow - recovery stage. In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand effectively drives inventory reduction [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 73,660.00 | +240.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -161,820.00 | -9174.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 255,907.00 | -15717.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -160.00 | +120.00↑ | 期货市场 | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 39,449.00 | +540.00↑ | | | | | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 73,850.00 | 0.00 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 71,600.00 | 0.00 | 现货市场 | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 190.00 | -240.00↓ | | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 876.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价（日， ...