Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Some previously shut - down urea production units have resumed operation, leading to an increase in domestic urea output. With 3 companies planning to halt production and 5 shut - down companies possibly resuming production this week, the probability of output increase is high [2]. - Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, trading atmosphere is tepid, and downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods, preferring a just - in - time procurement strategy. Industrial demand maintains a rigid procurement pattern [2]. - Due to the impact of some unit overhauls and the proper advancement of reserves and rigid demand, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline last week. Considering some unit restarts, enterprise inventories may slightly increase this week [2]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1740 - 1800 in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1778 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 230,560 lots, up 11,964 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,527, up 1,171 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 12,619, up 243 [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain unchanged at 355 and 400 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, up 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 101.92 million tons, down 4.97 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points; the daily output is 194,200 tons, up 3,700 tons [2]. - Urea export volume is 60 million tons, down 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.89%, down 3.86 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 47.65%, down 10.42 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 143 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, down 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 31, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 101.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.97 million tons and a 4.65% decline. The decline rate has narrowed [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea port sample inventory was 17.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons and a 2.82% decline. Port changes were minor, and the pace of factory shipments to ports slowed down near the holiday [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea output was 1.3591 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,000 tons and a 1.93% increase; the average daily output was 194,200 tons, up 37,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. Suggestions for Attention - The operating rate of enterprises fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [2]. - Pay attention to enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to sufficient spot resources and increased production load of some manufacturers, the supply continues to increase, and downstream parking and maintenance affect short - term raw material procurement. It is expected that the inventory level will further rise this week. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. With the resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may rise slightly this week. - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,830 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the position of the main contract is 37,293 lots, down 2,944 lots. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in different regions is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; Brent crude oil is 61.76 US dollars/barrel, up 1.01 US dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan is 522.5 US dollars/ton, down 7.63 US dollars. - The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China price of butadiene is 975 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 58.32 US dollars/barrel, up 1 US dollar; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 8,950 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, up 0.56 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, up 1,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.94%, down 1.28 percentage points. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76%, up 0.5 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the weekly social inventory is 3.45 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. - The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, down 2,550 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 7,180 tons, up 1,490 tons. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 0.19 days. [2] 3.5. Industry News - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, down 3.83 percentage points month - on - month and 11.05 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, down 3.76 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. - In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, up 1.35 million tons month - on - month (10.38%) and 1.97% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, up 4.65 percentage points month - on - month and down 2.68 percentage points year - on - year. - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 3.35 million tons, down 0.10 million tons (3.07%) from the previous period. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of nickel iron is expected to shrink. Nickel mines in the Philippines face seasonal challenges, and Indonesia plans to cut RKAB quotas, leading to potential production cuts in nickel - iron. Although the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, the supply pressure remains due to limited actual production decline. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing, resulting in low market purchasing willingness. However, the social inventory of stainless steel in the country is seasonally decreasing slightly. Technically, the stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with attention on the upper resistance level at 13,600 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan/ton. The 02 - 03 contract spread is - 110 yuan/ton, with a change from - 8983 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,457 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots. The main contract position is 63,161 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,387 tons, a decrease of 6 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless steel is 345 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 225 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 97,000 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 143,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) in the country is 930 yuan/nickel point, a daily increase of 10 yuan/nickel point. The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] Industry News - China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The current expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promoting the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump issued a warning to Venezuela's "interim president". The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of methanol has increased due to the fact that the production capacity loss from recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the production capacity output from recovery. With an increase in market supply, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, leading to a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm. Inland projects continue to operate stably, and last week, inland enterprises' inventories increased, with short - term supply being relatively abundant. Against this backdrop, the weakening demand expectations in winter are not conducive to the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventory is expected to maintain an overall increasing trend. [2] - Last week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained good, inventories increased due to more unloading. In Zhejiang, demand was stable, and inventories also increased. There is an expected decrease in imports in January, and port methanol inventories may decline from their high levels. [2] - Last week, most enterprises' devices were operating stably. Due to some devices in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased slightly. In the short term, the load of MTO enterprises in East China may still decrease, but the MTO device of Qinghai Salt Lake is planned to restart, so there is an expectation of an increase in the industry's operating rate. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2293 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 78; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 53 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. [2] - The trading volume of the main methanol contract is 824,536 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 50,952; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for methanol is - 128,251 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 21,279. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,205, with a week - on - week increase of 1,557. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10. [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 362.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 38. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 262 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, with no change. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 255 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0471 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,800 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 430,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25,100 tons. [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 10.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.4176 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.19; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.49. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.71; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no change. [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.8; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1256 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 141. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.44%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31st, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 4.61%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.48%. [2] - As of December 31st, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. [2] - As of December 31st, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.66%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. Most enterprises' plants were operating stably, but due to some plants in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the weekly average industry operating rate decreased slightly. [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is almost at the end of the tapping season. It is expected to fully enter the non - tapping period next week. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increasing month - on - month. - Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuate at a high level. Some tire enterprises have maintenance and holidays. Except for a small amount of replenishment at low prices, most are in a wait - and - see state, and procurement is cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao Port leads to a significant increase in the total inventory. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to some enterprises having about 3 days of maintenance arrangements and gradually resuming around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 260 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,609 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 17,689 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 74,434 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 3,853 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 45,601 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,974 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 15,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,297 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 100,690 tons, with no month - on - month change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,959 tons, with no month - on - month change. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 940 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,238 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 129 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 228 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 76 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.92 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.7 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 45,800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.18%, with no month - on - month change. [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 5.21 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.49 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.34 percentage points. - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price remains high - oscillating due to positive macro expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,335.00 yuan/ton, up 690.00 yuan; the main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum was 253,076.00 hands, down 8056.00 hands. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,818.00 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan; the main contract position of alumina was 429,905.00 hands, up 19,914.00 hands. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,995.00 yuan/ton, up 475.00 yuan; the main contract position of cast aluminum alloy was 20,162.00 hands, up 1,863.00 hands [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 130.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,085.50 US dollars/ton, up 64.50 US dollars; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.89, up 0.06 [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 59,275.00 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 506,750.00 tons, down 2,500.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 129,818.00 tons, up 1,310.00 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,793.00 tons, up 553.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 84,204.00 tons, up 1,408.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,910.00 yuan/ton, up 600.00 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,100.00 yuan/ton, up 650.00 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,340.00 yuan/ton, up 610.00 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 505.00 yuan/ton, down 205.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 425.00 yuan/ton, down 90.00 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 208.00 yuan/ton, down 48.00 yuan [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium/discount was - 220.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 27.69 US dollars/ton, down 2.75 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Quantities**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,200.00 yuan/ton, up 700.00 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,450.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan. China's import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2]. - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05%; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.20 million tons, up 7.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import quantity of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy was 173.90 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 19.03%, up 1.98%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 15.44%, up 1.49% [2]. - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25.26%, up 0.0366; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.64, down 0.0467 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem, cultivation of application scenarios, and exploration of business models for new technologies and products such as robots and drones [2]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement the green consumption promotion action, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers in December 2025 was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [2]. - Gree Electric Appliance promised not to raise the price of household air - conditioners and had no plan for "aluminum instead of copper" [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The collective rebound of the three official PMI indices in December implies economic repair signs. The positive tone for 2026 economic work set by a series of important meetings at the end of 2025 creates a warm macro - environment, providing strong bottom support for A - shares [2]. - Weak U.S. economic data negatively impacts the U.S. dollar value. The offshore RMB remains strong after the holiday, and the strengthening exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January [2]. - Due to the relatively late timing of the Spring Festival this year, the market may pre - trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March before the Spring Festival, suggesting the possibility of an early A - share spring market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all showed increases. For example, the IF main contract (2603) rose to 4778.0, up 80.2; the IC main contract (2603) reached 7786.4, up 203.8 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes. The IF - IH current - month contract spread increased by 20.0 to 1636.6, and the IC - IF current - month contract spread rose by 89.8 to 3040.6 [2]. - **Futures Maturity Spreads**: Some maturity spreads changed. The IF current - quarter to current - month spread decreased by 0.4 to - 17.4, while the IF next - quarter to current - month spread increased by 2.8 to - 61.4 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The IF top 20 net position increased by 583.0 to - 32,818.00, and the IM top 20 net position decreased by 1781.0 to - 47,935.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 reached 4790.69, up 73.0 [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. The IF main contract basis increased by 8.1 to - 12.7 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Transaction Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume and margin trading balance increased. The A - share daily trading volume reached 28,322.78 billion yuan, up 2650.38 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance of the previous trading day was 25,606.48 billion yuan, up 199.66 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume increased, and the repurchase operation volume changed. The previous trading day's north - bound trading volume was 2959.05 billion yuan, up 735.90 billion yuan, and the repurchase operation volume increased by 162.0 billion yuan to - 3125.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Some indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks decreased, while the closing price of IO at - the - money call options increased. The proportion of rising stocks decreased by 1.45% to 75.12%, and the closing price of IO at - the - money call options (2601) increased by 32.00 to 52.60 [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Domestic PMI**: In December, China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point [2]. - **U.S. PMI**: The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024 [2]. - **A - share Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high and reaching a new high in over a decade. The CSI 500 performed the strongest among the four broad - based indices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the communication sector falling [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Follow - January 7, 21:15: U.S. December ADP employment figures; 23:00: U.S. November JOLTs job openings [3]. - January 8, 20:30: U.S. December Challenger corporate layoff figures [3]. - January 9, 9:30: China's December CPI and PPI; 21:30: U.S. December non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro sentiment is warm, and industrial products mainly rose during the day. EB2602 closed up at 6,811 yuan/ton. The impact of the shutdown of the 450,000 - ton plant of Bohua last week expanded, and the output and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased month - on - month. The downstream EPS operating rate dropped significantly, the UPR operating rate decreased month - on - month, and the operating rates of PS, ABS, and styrene - butadiene rubber increased month - on - month. The absolute level of changes in factory and port inventories is not large, and the trend of explicit inventory depletion has slowed down. Non - integrated plants turned from loss to profit, and the profitability of integrated plants expanded. There are no recent news of major styrene plant shutdowns or restarts, and the domestic output and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little. EPS maintains a low operating rate due to the off - season of demand and high inventory, and the load of PS and ABS plants has no obvious adjustment. Currently, the overall downstream profit is low, and the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start work is suppressed. In terms of cost, the market believes that it will take time for Venezuela's crude oil production to recover, and international oil prices fluctuated and rose yesterday. Overall, styrene will gradually shift from a tight balance to a wide balance in January, and the supply - demand drive is weak. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to fluctuate, with the range expected to be around 6,700 - 6,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 6,811 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 72 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 255,208 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 14,594 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders of styrene futures was 361,224 lots, a month - on - month increase of 10,030 lots; the net long position was - 33,503 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 762 lots; the short position was 394,727 lots, a month - on - month increase of 10,792 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 6,862 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 68 yuan/ton. The open interest of the active contract was 300,124 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 2,551 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 200 lots, a month - on - month increase of 200 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,792 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 839 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 849 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price in the Northeast region was 6,625 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price in the South China region was 6,965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the North China region was 6,710 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the East China region was 6,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 746 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 726 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price was 675 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 272 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price was 430 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 53 US cents/gallon, with no month - on - month change; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 764 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 26 US dollars/ton. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price in the East China market was 5,290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the market price in the North China market was 5,250 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The national inventory of styrene was 171,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 800 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 132,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 77,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 43.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.92%; the operating rate of ABS was 69.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; the operating rate of PS was 60.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the operating rate of UPR was 36%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.52%, a month - on - month increase of 1.14% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 26 to January 1, the output of styrene factories was 352,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The operating rate of downstream EPS decreased by 8.92% month - on - month to 43.64%, the operating rate of PS increased by 1.8% month - on - month to 60.4%, the operating rate of ABS increased by 0.5% month - on - month to 69.9%, the operating rate of UPR decreased by 2% month - on - month to 36%, and the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.14% month - on - month to 80.52%. As of December 25, the inventory of styrene factories was 171,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%. As of January 5, the inventory in East China ports was 132,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%; the inventory in South China ports was 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.16%. On January 4, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 139.35 yuan/ton. On December 31, the integrated profit of styrene was 723.78 yuan/ton [2].

期价格将偏强运行。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 苹果产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 67 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9614 | | | 141873 | -16009 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 6134 | 4170 | | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | | 2.4 | 0 | | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 元/斤) 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) ...

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