2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | --- | --- | | 股指: | | | .. 贵金属: | ﺗ | | 螺纹、热卷: . | ( | | 铁矿石: . | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | 1 | | 铁合金: | | | .. 原油: | | | 燃料油: | | | 合成橡胶： 2017-02-04 11:10:10 11-07-2017 11:10:10 11-07-2017 11:10 11-02-20 11:11:11 11-0 | | | 天然橡胶: .. | | | PVC: .. | 1( | | 尼 表 · · | 1 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | 12 | | PTA: . | | | 乙二醇: . | | | 短纤: .. | 1: | | 瓶片: .. | | | 纯碱: .. | | | 玻璃: .. | | | 烧碱: .. | | | 纸浆: . | 16 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but due to the relatively low current Treasury bond yields and the potential for China's economic recovery, a certain degree of caution is advised [7]. - It is not advisable to be overly bearish on China's equity market. After event shocks, China's economy and assets will still operate according to their own laws, and the long - term performance of China's equity assets is still optimistic, waiting for opportunities to go long [8]. - The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and previous long positions can continue to be held [10]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities, take profits in time when there is a rebound, and pay attention to position management [12][14][16]. - For iron alloys, consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on ferromanganese silicon in the low - level range and opportunities for short - position exits for ferrosilicon in the bottom range [19]. - For crude oil, consider temporarily observing the main contract [23]. - For fuel oil, consider temporarily observing the main contract [25]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - Natural rubber and urea are expected to temporarily stabilize [29][35]. - PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [31]. - PX is expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side, with a lack of continuous upward drive [37]. - PTA is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with cost and demand gradually improving but lacking continuous upward drive [38]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with supply improving and demand being weak [39]. - Short - fiber is expected to adjust at the bottom following the cost side in the short term, with weak downstream terminal demand [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to oscillate at a low level following the cost side, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals but a lack of drive [41]. - Soda ash is expected to remain weak in the short term [42]. - Glass is expected to be dominated by weak market sentiment [44]. - For caustic soda, there may be an expectation of concentrated maintenance, and specific price fluctuations depend on the supply - demand game [45]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term, and the impact of tariff policies on the import supply structure needs to be observed [47]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [48]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract [50]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and risks should be controlled in the short term [52]. - Nickel prices may return to the cost - support logic if the macro - sentiment stabilizes, and risks should be controlled in the short term [54]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, consider shorting at high levels during rebounds [55]. - For soybean meal, consider taking profits when the price rises; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options in the bottom - support range [58]. - For palm oil, consider temporarily observing [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to widen the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [61]. - For cotton, suggest gradually taking profits on short positions [63]. - For sugar, suggest observing [68]. - For apples, consider going long at low levels after a pullback [72]. - For live pigs, consider shorting at high levels for two near - month contracts [75]. - For eggs, wait for the release of market sentiment in the short term [77]. - For corn, suggest temporarily observing [79]. - For logs, be vigilant against a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [81]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts falling by 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 15, with a net withdrawal of 102.9 billion yuan on the same day [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures fell slightly, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures main contracts falling by 0.23%, 0.05%, 0.20%, and 0.38% respectively [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 764.44 with a 0.10% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,158 with a 0.83% increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,020 - 3,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,240 - 3,260 yuan/ton [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 770 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder was 625 yuan/ton [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed mixed trends. The first - round increase in coke spot prices has been implemented [16]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 1.58% to 5,868 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract fell 1.67% to 5,774 yuan/ton [18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, standing above the 5 - day moving average [21]. - As of April 8, speculators reduced their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options by 29,690 lots [21]. - In March, OPEC + production increased by 30,000 barrels per day to 41.04 million barrels per day [21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, opening higher and rising. Asian fuel oil spot trading strengthened [24]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 2.69%. The Shandong mainstream price remained stable at 12,000 yuan/ton [26]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 2.36%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 2.46%. The Shanghai spot price dropped to 14,750 yuan/ton [29]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.24%. The spot price remained stable [31]. Urea - The content is the same as that of natural rubber, with the same price and market analysis [35]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2505 main contract fell 1.66%. The PXN spread dropped to $180/ton, and the PX - MX spread was around $60/ton [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2505 main contract fell 1.34%. The East China market price was 4,350 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.51% [38]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.95%. The East China market price was 4,320 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.81% [39]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505 main contract fell 1.87%. The device load dropped to around 91% [40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2505 main contract fell 1.39%. The device load rose to around 73% [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 1,331 yuan/ton, falling 0.30% [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 1,144 yuan/ton, falling 0.44% [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the 2505 main contract closed at 2,425 yuan/ton, rising 1.63% [45]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the 2507 main contract closed at 5,416 yuan/ton, falling 0.04% [47]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed down 0.17% to 70,720 yuan/ton [48]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated lower. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 76,100 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [49]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin fell 0.54% to 258,100 yuan/ton [52]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel prices rose 0.97% to 124,830 yuan/ton [53]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon main contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, falling 2.50%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 40,485 yuan/ton, falling 2.79% [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.00% to 3,066 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.23% to 7,676 yuan/ton [57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell for the second consecutive day. From April 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports increased [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed resumed rising. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes since March 20, 2025 [61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated at a low level. As of April 13, the US cotton planting rate was 5% [62]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of March increased by nearly 10% year - on - year [65]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. As of April 9, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 398.63 million tons, a decrease of 38.90 million tons from the previous week [70]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs was 14.96 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan [73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in the main sales areas, it was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan [76]. Corn - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.60% to 2,302 yuan/ton. The 24/25 annual grain sales progress has exceeded 90% [78]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the 2507 main contract closed at 828.5 yuan/ton, falling 0.72% [80].

| 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 26 | 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 国债: | | | --- | --- | | 股指: .. | N | | 贵金属： | | | 螺纹、热卷: . | | | 铁矿石: . | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | | | 铁合金： . | | | .. 原油: | | | . 燃料油: | | | 合成橡胶: . | | | 天然橡胶: .. | 1 | | .. PVC: ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 央行发文称，初步统计，2025 年 3 月末社会融资规模存量为 422.96 万亿元，同比 增长 8.4%。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为 262.18 万亿元，同比增长 7.2%。 3 月末，广义货币（M2）余额 326.06 万亿元，同比增长 7%。狭义货币（M1）余额 113.49 万亿元，同比增长 1.6%。一季度人民币贷款增加 9.78 万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增 加 1.04 万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加 1603 亿元，中长期贷款增加 8832 亿元。 | 国债: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指: | | | | | 贵金属: | ู่ | | | 螺纹、热卷: . | ( | | | 铁矿石: . | | | | 焦煤焦炭: . | 1 | | 铁合金: | | ( | | 原油: | .. | | | 燃料油: | | | | 合成 ...

2025 年 4 月 11 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘涨跌不一，30 年期主力合约跌 0.24%报 119.87 元，10 年期主力合约持平报 109.035 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 106.5 元，2 年期主力合 约涨 0.03%报 102.702 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，4 月 10 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 23 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 25 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 益率处在相对低位；抛开关税影响，中国经济呈现平稳复苏态势，内需政策有发力空 间，建议保持一定的谨慎。 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.16%报 120.33 元，10 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 109.045 元，5 年 ...

重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 地址： 电话： | PTA： | | 12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇： | | 13 | | 短纤： | | 13 | | 瓶片： | | 14 | | 纯碱： | | 14 | | 玻璃： | | 14 | | 烧碱： | | 15 | | 纸浆： | | 15 | | 碳酸锂： | | 16 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 19 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 20 | | 白糖： | | 21 | | 苹果： | | 22 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 23 | | 玉米： | | 24 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - In the context of tariff frictions, the overall driving force is weak, and cotton prices are expected to remain weak [30]. Summary by Directory International Cotton Market Analysis - In the 2024/25 season, the global supply is generally loose. The global cotton production is estimated to increase to 26.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in China's cotton production. The global cotton consumption is 25.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons, mainly due to the obvious increase in cotton consumption in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Thailand. The global cotton ending inventory in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 20,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, and increase by 910,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - The supply of US cotton is loose, but there is an expectation of a decline in the future planting area. The 2024/25 US cotton production is expected to be 3.14 million tons, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 510,000 tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In March 2025, the estimated cotton planting area in the US is 9.867 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 12% [5]. Domestic Cotton Fundamentals - China's cotton production in 2024 exceeded expectations. The single - yield reached a record high of 2,171.6 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 7.8%. The total national production is estimated to be 6.84 million tons. It is expected that the cotton planting area in China will increase by 0.8% in 2025, but the single - yield may decline, and the production will also decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's national cotton commercial inventory was 5.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,000 tons, and the industrial inventory was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. Both inventories are at the highest level in the same period of history [10][11]. - As of the end of February 2025, the yarn inventory of domestic textile enterprises was 22.32 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous month and 3.6 days year - on - year. The grey fabric inventory was 29.43 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month and an increase of 2.2 days year - on - year [15]. China's Textile and Apparel Demand - According to customs data, from January to February 2025, China's textile and apparel exports decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. The US has imposed high - tariff policies on China, and China has also counter - imposed tariffs. China's textile exports are expected to decline by about 10% [19]. - From January to February 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China increased by 3.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate is still low [22]. Cost and Profit - The current domestic spot yarn - cotton price difference is around 6,200 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. In 2024, the yarn - cotton price difference was in the range of 6,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and downstream textile enterprises suffered large losses for a long time [26]. - The purchase price of seed cotton this season is 6.3 yuan/kg, and the corresponding cotton cost is around 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton, and the futures market has been at a discount [28]. Trading Logic - From the perspective of the USDA balance sheet, the world is in a stocking cycle in the 2024/25 season, which is a medium - and long - term negative factor for cotton prices. Globally, Brazilian cotton has the lowest cost, about 60 cents. In a period of oversupply, global cotton prices may approach the Brazilian planting cost. However, the expected 12% decrease in the US planting area in the new season will also affect cotton prices [29]. - Domestically, the current supply far exceeds expectations, industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, downstream yarn and grey fabric inventories are also high, and downstream profits are low. In terms of demand, the US high - tariff policy on China and China's counter - measures will have a long - term impact on cotton demand, and China's textile exports are expected to decline further [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Tariffs have a significant impact on various markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [6][9]. - Despite short - term challenges, the long - term prospects of Chinese equity assets remain positive [9]. - Gold's long - term value is still promising due to factors such as global recession risks and potential monetary policy easing [11]. - Different commodities have different short - term and long - term outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][17]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 1.79%, 0.56%, 0.34%, and 0.13% respectively. The central bank conducted 935 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan. Tariffs are significantly positive for treasury bond futures, but given the relatively low yield and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures fell across the board. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell by 10.00%, 8.20%, 10.00%, and 10.00% respectively. The central bank's move to increase holdings of ETFs is positive, but tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. It is expected that stock index futures will face pressure, but due to low valuations and policy hedging, short - term avoidance is considered, and opportunities to go long can be awaited [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver fell. China's gold reserves increased for the fifth consecutive month. After the implementation of tariffs, precious metals first rose and then fell. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long after the market stabilizes [11]. Base Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Tariffs and weak demand in the real estate industry put pressure on prices, but macro - policies and peak - season expectations may provide support. The valuation is low, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell. Although tariffs have an impact, the increase in iron ore demand and the decline in port inventory support prices. The valuation is relatively high, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell. Tariffs affect the market, but the demand for coking coal is improving, and the fundamentals of coke are also showing signs of improvement. The medium - term weakness remains, and investors can wait and see or engage in intraday trading with light positions [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The supply of manganese ore may be disrupted, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The high inventory puts pressure on the market. For manganese silicon, deep out - of - the - money call options can be considered, and for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [20][21]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil hit the daily limit down. Trade frictions affect the trend of crude oil. It is expected that the price will be dragged down, but it will be supported at around $60. It is advisable to wait and see [22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose first and then fell. The implementation of tariffs by the US will have a negative impact on the global shipping market and fuel oil [25][26]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber hit the daily limit down. Tariffs have a negative impact on the cost and demand. The raw material price is falling, and the processing is in a loss. It is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber hit the daily limit down. Tariffs impact the market from multiple aspects. In the short term, there is no upward drive, but there may be a technical rebound. In the long term, it depends on global trade policies and industrial chain restructuring [29]. Chemicals - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. Tariffs have little impact on PVC imports and exports. The market is expected to continue the pattern of "weak reality vs. policy expectations". Spring maintenance and export resilience provide short - term support, but high inventory and weak real - estate demand are still pressures [31]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell. The market is in a weak adjustment, with a loose supply - demand pattern. Cost support may limit the decline. It is expected to fluctuate before the start of summer fertilizer demand [34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX hit the daily limit down. The decline in PX load and the increase in PTA start - up support the market, but the collapse of the cost of crude oil has a negative impact. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak in the short term [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA hit the daily limit down. The supply and demand fundamentals have little contradiction, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices may lead to a significant correction. Caution is advised [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell. High inventory and weak demand due to tariffs put pressure on the price. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber hit the daily limit down. The demand at the terminal is improving limitedly, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to follow the cost in the short term [41]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle - chip hit the daily limit down. The sharp decline in raw material prices and the lack of supply - demand drivers make it expected to follow the cost and be weak [43]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [44]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is at a low level, and the market sentiment is weak due to tariffs [45]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. The supply may have elasticity, but the price is difficult to be significantly supported due to inventory accumulation. It is expected to fluctuate [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of paper pulp fell. The inventory is rising, and the downstream start - up is weak. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term due to tariff news [47]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to be weak [48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, but tariffs may cause short - term over - reaction. For soybean meal, long - holders can consider taking profits, and for soybean oil, waiting and seeing is advisable [57]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil fell. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase, and the import in China has decreased. It is advisable to wait and see [59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The impact of tariffs on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The supply of rapeseed meal in the near - term may be affected more. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [61]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fell. Tariffs disrupt the global economy, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is weakening. It is advisable to consider shorting after a rebound [64]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, sugar fell. The Brazilian sugar - cane crushing progress is slow, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. In China, the supply pressure is not large. It is advisable to wait and see [67]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is positive, and the consumption is better than expected. With low inventory, the price is expected to be strong, and going long after a pull - back can be considered [70]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, the pig price was stable with minor adjustments. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. Short - term waiting and seeing is advisable, and opportunities to go short at high prices can be awaited after the short - term sentiment subsides [73]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg prices fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. After the short - term market sentiment is released, opportunities can be observed [75]. - **Corn**: On the previous trading day, corn futures rose. The supply pressure still exists in the short term, but the demand is increasing slightly. If the market sentiment drives the price up significantly, out - of - the - money put options can be considered [78]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is relatively neutral. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline if the reality is weaker than expected [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to China's counter - measures, causing significant concerns in the market. The global economy faces a greater risk of recession, and the market anticipates further monetary policy easing. Tariffs are significantly beneficial for Treasury bond futures, while stock index futures may face pressure. Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with varying trends and investment strategies [5][6][9]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 1.43%, 0.51%, 0.38%, and 0.15% respectively [5]. - **Policy Impact**: China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025. Future monetary and fiscal policies have room for adjustment, and measures will be taken to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Tariffs are favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the current low Treasury bond yields and the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, caution is advised. It is expected that the volatility will increase [6][7][8]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures declined slightly. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000股指期货主力 contracts changed by - 0.49%, 0.10%, - 0.78%, and - 1.10% respectively [9]. - **Impact Factors**: Tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, and the global recession risk increases, putting pressure on stock index futures. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and policy hedging space, there is no need to be overly bearish on the Chinese equity market. It is advisable to wait for short - term opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract rose by 0.74%, and the silver主力 contract fell by 1.37% [11]. - **Impact Factors**: After the tariff implementation, precious metals first rose and then fell, possibly due to passive selling caused by global financial market liquidity shocks. The long - term value of gold is still optimistic, and it is expected to continue its upward trend after the shock [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities or buy long - term call options after the market stabilizes [12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. During the Ching Ming Festival, international financial market fluctuations may drag down domestic black - series products [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The real - estate industry's downward trend persists, and weak demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices. However, the peak demand season is approaching, and macro - policies may support prices. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited [14]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [16][17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: High iron - water production supports iron ore demand. Although the supply has increased recently, the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series products [17]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures were weak. During the holiday, international market fluctuations may affect domestic black - series products [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The coking - coal market sentiment has improved slightly, and the coke fundamentals are showing signs of improvement. However, the medium - term weakness has not changed [19]. - **Strategy**: Due to macro - factor disturbances, market volatility may increase. Investors can wait and see or focus on intraday trading opportunities, paying attention to position management [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract fell by 0.45%, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose by 0.13% [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of ferroalloys is slightly higher than demand. The steel demand season is coming, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to pick up. However, the high inventory and potential supply disturbances in manganese ore need attention [22][23]. - **Strategy**: In the low - price range, consider long - position opportunities for deep - out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon. For silicon iron, short - position holders can consider exiting at the bottom range [23]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell due to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs [24]. - **Market Data**: Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + will increase oil supply in May [25]. - **Outlook**: The crude oil price depends on the development of trade frictions. It is expected that the price will be supported at around $60, and OPEC may take measures to support the price [26]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the crude - oil主力 contract [27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil, rising and then falling. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market was weak in early April [28]. - **Outlook**: High - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages, but the implementation of US tariffs will harm the global shipping market, which is negative for fuel oil [29]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the fuel - oil主力 contract [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber主力 contract fell by 4.04%. The US tariff has a negative impact on the cost and demand expectations, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The butadiene price is falling, and the production capacity utilization rate has declined. The demand for tires is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the inventory has decreased [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.18%, and the 20 - rubber主力 contract fell by 3.73%. The US tariff has a triple - path impact on the natural - rubber market, and the price lacks upward momentum in the short term [33]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The opening of the rubber - tapping season in some areas is delayed, and the demand for tires is weak. The inventory is at a relatively low level year - on - year but is accumulating month - on - month [33][34]. - **Outlook**: There may be a technical rebound after the price drops excessively. The long - term trend depends on global trade policies and industrial chain reconstruction [33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell by 0.04%. The US tariff has limited impact on PVC imports and exports, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate between weak reality and policy expectations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The production capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises is weak. The export depends on low prices, and the inventory has increased [36][37]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [38]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract fell by 0.42%. The urea market is mainly in a weak adjustment state, and the price lacks upward momentum under the loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The daily production of urea is expected to remain around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a lull, and the industrial demand is under pressure. The inventory has decreased [39]. - **Outlook**: The market may oscillate before the start of the summer fertilizer demand. Attention should be paid to factors such as northeast replenishment demand, export policy changes, and extreme weather [39]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2505主力 contract fell by 2.27%. Recently, more PX plants have been under maintenance, and the load has decreased. The downstream PTA startup has increased, but the cost support has collapsed due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices [41]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. It is advisable to wait and see carefully, paying attention to changes in crude oil prices and supply [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2505主力 contract fell by 2%. The supply of PTA has increased slightly, and the demand from the polyester industry has risen. However, the PTA processing fee has decreased, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly [42]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant, but there is a risk of a sharp price correction. It is advisable to participate carefully and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol主力 contract fell by 1.4%. The overall production capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream polyester startup has risen, but the terminal demand is weak [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the ethylene - glycol price is expected to be under pressure. It is advisable to operate carefully and pay attention to changes in port inventory and upstream - downstream plants [43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2505主力 contract fell by 2.38%. The supply of short - fiber is at a relatively high level, and the demand from downstream terminals is limited. The cost support is insufficient [45]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - fiber will follow the cost - end movement. Pay attention to risk control due to significant fluctuations [45]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2505主力 contract fell by 1.18%. The raw - material cost support is limited, the supply has increased, and the demand for downstream soft drinks is gradually recovering [46]. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chips market is expected to follow the cost - end weakness. Pay attention to changes in raw - material prices [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soda - ash 2505主力 contract fell by 0.29%. The soda - ash production has adjusted at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is stable and weak [47]. - **Outlook**: The market is still dominated by demand in the short term, and the price is subject to oscillation due to maintenance news [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the glass 2505主力 contract fell by 2.44%. The number of production lines has been at a low level, and the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The price has a certain upward momentum due to valuation repair and cost support, but the actual supply - demand drive is not obvious [48]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to continuously monitor the inventory - reduction speed [48]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda 2505主力 contract fell by 0.71%. The production of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is limited. The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to oscillate [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the pulp 2505主力 contract fell by 1.91%. Some pulp mills have carried out maintenance, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the futures price decline [51][53]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillate [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate主力 contract fell by 1%. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to be weak [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell significantly due to US tariffs. The spot - market trading was stable, and the premium increased [55]. - **Outlook**: With the escalation of the trade war, copper prices are difficult to remain stable. In the short term, it is not recommended to participate in the market or only participate with a light position [55]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing for the Shanghai - copper主力 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin fell by 2.02%. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the short - term impact of macro - events has intensified. The supply shortage in the ore end still exists, and the price is expected to be supported [56]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to risk control and wait for the release of risk sentiment [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the nickel price fell by 1.55%. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to US tariffs. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [57]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to risk control [57]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon主力 contract rose by 0.20%, and the polysilicon主力 contract fell by 0.02%. The industrial - silicon market is oversupplied, and the price is weak. The polysilicon market is relatively stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main - contract rose by 1.60%, and the soybean - oil main - contract fell by 1.18%. The US - China trade friction has intensified, and the US soybean main - contract fell on Friday [60]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal is accumulating, while the inventory of soybean oil is decreasing. The consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly [60]. - **Strategy**: After the short - term extreme market reaction, the market will return to fundamentals. Long - position holders can consider taking profits on rallies. If there is still an upward trend on the second trading day, consider virtual - value put options [61][62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has fallen, pressured by the decline in CBOT soybean oil and crude oil prices. The global demand is weak due to economic concerns, and the Malaysian palm - oil inventory is expected to rise for the first time in six months [63]. - **Strategy**: Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has fallen, and the domestic market has been affected by tariff policies. The impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has decreased [65][66]. - **Strategy**: Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market cotton fell by about 2.3% due to US tariff policies. The domestic cotton supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weakening [67][68]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the outer - market supply - demand is loose, and the domestic demand has reached a phased peak. The "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on demand, and the global economic decline has led to trade shrinkage [68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: During the holiday, the outer - market raw sugar fell by more than 3% due to the decline in global risk assets. The domestic and foreign sugar production and inventory situations are different. The short - term decline in global risk assets will drag down sugar prices [69][70]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see [70][71]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The cancellation of a delivery warehouse is beneficial, and the consumption is better than expected. The inventory is low, and the price is expected to be strong [72][73]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after price corrections [74]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price is oscillating. The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. The 4 - month planned slaughter volume of group farms has a limited increase, and the consumption is entering the