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西南期货早间评论-20250605
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 05:19
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing market trends, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each product [5][7][10]. - It suggests different trading strategies for different products, such as being cautious about bonds, considering long - positions in stock index futures, and having specific trading ideas for various commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [6][9][11]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had respective increases of 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.07%, and 0.04%. The central bank conducted 2149 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In May 2025, the number of new A - share accounts increased by 22.86% year - on - year. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract had a closing price of 782.42 with a decline of 0.09%, and the silver main contract had a closing price of 8,463 with an increase of 0.08%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, steel futures rebounded significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing steel prices. However, the current valuation is low, and there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. It is recommended to buy at low levels, take profit on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and it is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. It is recommended to pay attention to call option opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron under certain conditions [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil trended upward. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but it may be suspended or reversed. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to go long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, high - and low - sulfur fuel oils showed different trends. The fuel oil price is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the main fuel oil contract [24][25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. The demand side is still worried, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC main contract rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea main contract closed flat. The cost has decreased, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy changes [35][36]. PX - Last trading day, PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand is tight, but the PXN spread may decline. It is recommended to trade with a range - bound mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA main contract fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It is recommended to trade in a range on dips and pay attention to risk control [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [39][40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is recommended to participate cautiously on dips and pay attention to risk control [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips main contract fell. The raw material price has adjusted, and the supply - demand has improved. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash main contract rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass main contract rose. The supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda main contract fell. The supply - demand is generally loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp main contract fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale production clearance [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper trended upward. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and it is recommended to go long on the main Shanghai copper contract [51][52][53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal closed flat, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and pay attention to call option opportunities for soybean oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to exit the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures trended weakly. The market is waiting and watching due to uncertain Sino - US relations. It is recommended to trade with a light position [65][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded after hitting a low. The domestic inventory is low, and it is recommended to go long in batches [69][70][71]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded after hitting a low. The new - year production is uncertain, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main live pig contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the second - fattening participation after the festival and consider the positive spread opportunity for the peak - season contract [73][74]. Eggs - Last trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [75][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [79][80][81]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract fell. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market support for the futures price is weak [82][84].
西南期货早间评论-20250604
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 04:58
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For different commodities, there are various investment outlooks, such as being bullish on Chinese equity assets in the long - term, expecting the long - term bull trend of precious metals to continue, and having different views on other commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market conditions [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI dropped, and there are uncertainties in US tariffs. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The "Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data" will be implemented. The domestic economy is stable but the recovery momentum is weak, and there are uncertainties in tariffs. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the US and the world. The long - term bull trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures can be considered [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to decline. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, and the peak demand season is ending. There is a risk of further price decline, but the valuation is low. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the valuation is relatively high. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The short - term decline may continue, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are opportunities in manganese silicon call options and ferrosilicon short - covering [18][19]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. OPEC+ will increase production in July, but the pressure on oil prices is expected to ease. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and a long - position operation on the main crude oil contract can be considered [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose and then fell. The global trade demand is recovering, but the ARA region's inventory is increasing. The cost of crude oil is rising, and a long - position operation on the main fuel oil contract can be considered [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The demand is worried, and the inventory is accumulating. Wait for the price to stabilize and then consider going long [28]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures fell slightly. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is in a bottom - range oscillation [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. The short - term cost is decreasing, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and long - positions can be considered at low prices [33]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread is high. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operations can be considered [36]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost is supported. Interval operations at low prices can be considered [37][38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is increasing, but the inventory is decreasing significantly. It is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost. Long - positions can be considered at low prices [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price is oscillating, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate steadily [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply - demand is relatively loose with regional differences. Pay attention to enterprise operations and liquid chlorine prices [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound briefly due to tariff progress, and pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated lower. The US - China possible call is positive, and the copper tariff is uncertain. A long - position operation on the main Shanghai copper contract can be considered [51][52]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate with downward pressure [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to run weakly [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, long - position opportunities for out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom [56][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by India's tax cut. The domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating. Consider exiting the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by wildfires and tariff negotiations. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated weakly. The Sino - US trade relations are uncertain, and the supply - demand situation is complex. Wait for a pull - back and then go long [64][66]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is low. Consider going long in batches [68][69]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated slightly. The new - year domestic apple production is uncertain. Consider going long after a pull - back [71][72]. Hogs - The hog price is weak. The group - farm slaughter is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. Consider a long - spread operation on the peak - season contract [73][75]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg prices fell. The egg production is increasing, and the profit is low. Consider short - selling after a rebound [76][77]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and temporary observation is recommended [78][80]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose slightly. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market transaction is light [81][83].
西南期货早间评论-20250603
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [5][6]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed certain changes. The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declined. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold futures rose, and silver futures fell slightly. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the current price valuation is low. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the valuation is relatively high. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. For manganese - silicon, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [18][19]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but the oil price is expected to rebound. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The global trade demand is recovering, and the inventory decline supports the price. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main fuel - oil contract [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures showed mixed performance. The demand is worried, and the inventory is accumulating. Wait for the price to stabilize and then consider long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - range oscillation [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. The short - term cost is decreasing, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels [32][33][34]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has recovered. It is advisable to trade with an oscillation mindset and pay attention to the cost and policies [35]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost is supported. It is advisable to operate in the low - range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and it is expected to oscillate [38]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and the cost is supportive. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels [39]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw - material cost is supportive, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost [40][41]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to oscillate steadily [42]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak [43][44][45]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [46]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures rose. The domestic and international supply is abundant, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to rebound briefly and then pay attention to production cuts and consumption - stimulating policies [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [49]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell. The US trade policy is changeable, but the basis for copper price increase still exists. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on Shanghai copper futures [50][51]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [52]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to run weakly [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [54][55]. Palm Oil - The BMD palm - oil market had certain fluctuations. The inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [56][57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic inventory situation is different for rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities after the decline of rapeseed meal [59][60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures showed weak oscillations. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain. It is advisable to operate with a light position and consider long - position after the decline [61][62][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The Brazilian production is low, and the domestic inventory is low. Consider going long in batches [64][65][66]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures recovered from the bottom. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long - position opportunities after the decline [67][68][69]. Live Pigs - The pig price showed certain fluctuations. The supply and demand are in a complex situation. Consider the positive - spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [70][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures rose. The supply is expected to increase in June. Consider short - selling after the rebound [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to wait and see for corn starch [74][75]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the market has no obvious driving force [76][77].
西南期货早间评论-20250530
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.65%, 0.26%, 0.15%, and 0.06% respectively. The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, and the US government's tariff policy is uncertain. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and one should remain cautious [5][7]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 0.68%, 0.25%, 1.89%, and 2.35% respectively. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising. Considering the significant progress of the Sino - US trade agreement, one can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver showed declines. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and one can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining. There is a risk of further price decline, but the valuation is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the valuation is high. It has found support near the previous low. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has weakened. The futures have reached new lows, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. One can consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon and exiting short positions on ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. The OPEC + meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply. The US tariff policy is uncertain. It is suitable for short - term operations, and one can temporarily observe the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil showed a trend of rising and then falling, with a relatively strong performance. The cost - side crude oil is expected to rise due to the OPEC meeting, and the court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to fuel oil prices. One can temporarily observe the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of natural rubber showed mixed performance. The demand side is worried about the future, and the inventory has increased against the season. One should wait for the market to stabilize and temporarily observe [31][33]. PVC - Last trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, the main contract of urea declined. In the short term, the cost has decreased, and the demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price to rise. One can consider going long at low levels [37][39]. PX - Last trading day, the main contract of PX rose. The supply - demand structure is tight, and the PXN spread has support. It should be treated with a cautious and bullish mindset [40]. PTA - Last trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It may oscillate and strengthen in the short term, and one can operate in the low - level range [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. The supply has increased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and one should pay attention to inventory and policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has slightly recovered, and the cost has a driving force. It is expected to oscillate and strengthen following the cost, and one can participate cautiously at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost has support, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and one should participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is expected to oscillate steadily [46]. Glass - Last trading day, the main contract of glass declined. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak [47][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main contract of caustic soda declined. The supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. One should pay attention to device operations and liquid chlorine prices [51]. Pulp - Last trading day, the main contract of pulp rose slightly. The domestic and international supply is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound briefly, and one should pay attention to production cuts and consumption - stimulating policies [52]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated higher. The court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to the market sentiment, and there is a basis for copper price increase. One can operate with a long - bias on the main contract [54][55]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to face pressure and oscillate downward [56]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost has support, but the downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue, and one should pay attention to opportunities after the macro - sentiment recovers [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the main contracts of soybean oil and soybean meal declined. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal is high, and one can observe. The downward space of soybean oil is limited, and one can consider out - of - the - money call options [58][59]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has risen for five consecutive days. Malaysia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio. One can focus on opportunities to widen the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between soybean oil and palm oil [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is mixed. The domestic inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a low or high level in recent years. One can focus on buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures declined slightly. The suspension of tariffs is beneficial to cotton exports. The supply - demand situation is complex, and one can wait for a pull - back to go long [65][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures declined slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is low. One can operate within the oscillation range [70][71][72]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. There are signs of production reduction in some areas, and the inventory is lower than last year. One can focus on buying opportunities after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main contract of live pigs rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. One can consider positive spreads on the peak - season contracts [74][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, the price of eggs was stable. The egg production capacity is increasing, and the price decline risk has been released in the main contract. One can consider short - selling after a rebound [78][79]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the main contracts of corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and one can temporarily observe [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose slightly. The expected arrival volume at ports has increased, and the spot price has declined. The market has no obvious driving force, and the support for the futures price is weak [83][84].
早间评论早间评论-20250529
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:56
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about the overall market [6]. - For different commodities, there are various investment suggestions, such as considering long positions in stock index futures, gold futures, and copper futures; being cautious about PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc.; and waiting for opportunities in some commodities like urea and cotton [9][11][57]. Summary by Commodity Categories Bonds and Stocks - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the Ministry of Finance announced local government bond issuance. It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [5][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had small increases. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated lower. The US International Court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to market sentiment, and it is considered to take long positions in Shanghai copper [56][57]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. With the resumption of production in some mines and the increase in production costs in some regions, it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is large, and a bearish and volatile view is taken [58]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. Although the cost support is strong, the downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [59]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. There are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market, and it is suitable for short - term operations. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [23][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose first and then fell. The global trade demand is recovering, but the increase in inventories in some regions is negative for prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [27][29]. Chemicals - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [35][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The cost has decreased in the short term, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound later, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [38][40]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened slightly, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient, and interval operations are considered [42][43]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal rose slightly, and soybean oil fell slightly. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, it is possible to pay attention to out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [60][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed up. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures fell. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high or low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback of rapeseed meal [65][67]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly. The suspension of tariffs is beneficial to short - term exports. It is recommended to go long after the callback [68][72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell slightly. The global sugar production is expected to recover. It is recommended to conduct interval operations [73][77]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The inventory in cold storage is lower than that of last year, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback [78][79]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. It is recommended to consider the positive spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [80][82]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short after the rebound [83][84]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is recommended to wait and see for corn starch [85][87]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the main log contract rose. The arrival of logs at ports has increased, and the market has no obvious driving force [88][89].
西南期货早间评论-20250528
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. For example, it is bullish on the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures; it believes that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue and suggests considering going long on gold futures [8][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.26%, 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The current macro - economic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is still to be strengthened. The central bank carried out 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan. The current treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is still uncertainty [5]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.51%, 0.51%, 0.24%, and 0.10% respectively [7]. - **Analysis**: From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year. As of the end of April 2025, the net asset value of public funds managed by institutions reached 33.12 trillion yuan. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long - term due to low valuations and economic resilience [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish on the long - term performance and consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold closed at 771.6, down 0.73%, and the night - session closed at 770.7; the main contract of silver closed at 8,217, down 0.76%, and the night - session closed at 8249 [11]. - **Analysis**: In April, US durable goods orders had a significant decline. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [11]. - **Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to fall. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2900 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 2960 - 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 - 3220 yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining with over - capacity. The peak demand season is ending, and the price support may weaken. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to those of rebar. The current steel price valuation is low, but the futures have broken through the support level [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 610 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The daily output of molten iron remains high, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore decreased in the first quarter, imports increased significantly after April. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high among black - series products [16]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low. They can participate with a light position [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is still abundant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. Although the steel mills' molten iron output is high, some mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises has improved, but the spot price has started to decline again [18]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon fell 1.23% to 5616 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon fell 1.73% to 5452 yuan/ton. The spot prices also declined [21]. - **Analysis**: The shipment of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The production of rebar increased slightly, but the demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The high inventory of ferroalloys exerts pressure on the market [21]. - **Strategy**: For ferromanganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low - level intervals; for ferrosilicon, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly, being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis**: The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased for the fourth consecutive week. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [24]. - **Strategy**: The OPEC+ meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is suitable for short - term operations. Consider temporarily observing the main contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward, breaking through the moving - average group. The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil market eased, while the high - sulfur fuel - oil market continued to rise. The crack spread in the Asian fuel - oil market decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The tariff friction is gradually being resolved, and global trade demand is recovering, which is positive for fuel - oil prices. However, the inventory in the ARA region has increased, which is negative for prices [28]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of fuel oil [29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.60%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. The processing loss of synthetic rubber has increased, the production capacity utilization rate is high, the demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [30]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.87%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber rose 2.60%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at 14,350 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [32]. - **Analysis**: The market is still worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand from tire enterprises may decline slightly. The social inventory is relatively high [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 1.58%, and the spot price decreased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton. The basis remained stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, mainly following the macro - sentiment. The supply is increasing, the export demand is good, but the domestic demand is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi decreased to 1850 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released intensively. However, exports will be an incremental demand in the second half of the year, and the agricultural demand will start later. The domestic daily production is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: If the price continues to fall, investors can consider going long. Pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 rose by 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [41]. - **Analysis**: The restart of maintenance devices and the delay of planned maintenance have increased the PX load to 78%. The import volume in April decreased. The international crude oil price is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting [41]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the crude oil price fluctuates, and the supply - demand structure weakens slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the change in crude oil prices and macro - policies, and control risks [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell by 0.17%. The spot price in East China was 4913 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.85% [42]. - **Analysis**: The restart of some devices has increased the PTA load to 77.1%. Some polyester devices have been overhauled, and the terminal orders have decreased. The cost support is insufficient [42]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak. It is advisable to operate within a range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell by 0.5% [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart and maintenance of ethylene - glycol devices are concurrent, and the overall operating load is 58.25%. The port inventory has decreased, and the planned arrival volume is also decreasing. The downstream polyester operating rate has decreased, but the demand has improved slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2506 fell by 0.31% [44]. - **Analysis**: The operating load of short - fiber devices has increased to 96.2%. The downstream terminal demand has improved slightly, but the cost support is insufficient. The processing fee is being compressed, and there may be production cuts in the future [44]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate following the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips 2506 rose by 0.1% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply of polyester bottle - chip devices has increased to 84.3%, and the growth space may be limited. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover. The raw - material price is fluctuating, and the cost support has weakened [45][46]. - **Strategy**: In the future, it is expected to follow the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to raw - material price changes [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1231 yuan/ton, down 2.30% [47]. - **Analysis**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the industry's operating load has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the new orders are poor, and some manufacturers have lowered their prices [47]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to reverse, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate steadily [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1031 yuan/ton, up 1.18% [48]. - **Analysis**: Some production lines have resumed production, but the overall number of production lines has not changed much. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driving force, and the market price in North China has been low [48][49]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [50]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 2449 yuan/ton, down 1.17% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some devices are under maintenance, and the production has increased slightly. The inventory is at a neutral level. The demand for caustic soda is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is still relatively loose. There are regional differences [51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2507 closed at 5274 yuan/ton, down 2.77% [52]. - **Analysis**: A foreign pulp factory is preparing for annual maintenance. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated. The consumption is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [52][53]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the international supply is abundant. The price may rebound in the short - term due to tariff progress. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of international pulp mills and domestic consumption - stimulation policies [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.86% to 60,920 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade has made positive progress, but the mine price has decreased, and the production rate has increased. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening during the traditional off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [54]. - **Strategy**: Before the large - scale clearance of mine production capacity, the price is difficult to reverse [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward, closing above the moving average. The spot price decreased, and the premium also decreased [55]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US tariffs are affecting the real economy, and the US refined - copper inventory is increasing. There is still uncertainty about copper tariffs, and the price may fall after rising [56]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of Shanghai copper [57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell by 0.4% to 264,290 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: A tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and the复产 expectation in Myanmar is increasing. The domestic processing fee is low, and the raw - material inventory of smelters is shrinking. The downstream production is good, and the inventory is decreasing. There is a game between the current shortage and the expected supply increase [58]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate downward [58]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell by 0.18% to 122,300 yuan/ton [59]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations have made new progress, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering losses. The demand
西南期货早间评论-20250527
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 03:24
2025 年 5 月 27 日星期二 地址: 电话: 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层; 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A; 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜: | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡: | | 16 | | 镍: | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕: | | 17 | | 棕榈油: | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油: | | 19 | | 棉花: | | 19 | | 白糖: | | 20 | | 苹果: | | 21 | | 生猪: | | 22 | | 鸡蛋: | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉: | | 23 | | 原木: | | 24 | | 免责声明 | | 25 | 国债: 上一交易日,国债期货收盘多数上涨,30 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 119.760 元, 10 年期主力合约持平于 108.855 元,5 年期主力合约涨 0.01%报 106.060 元,2 年期主 力合约涨 0.03%报 102.430 元。 公开市场方面,央行公告称,5 月 26 日以固定利率 ...
早间评论-20250526
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 05:46
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [24][25]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [27][28]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [29][30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to oscillate [31][32]. - For PVC, it is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. - For urea, it is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. - For p - xylene (PX), short - term caution is recommended, and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, consider range - bound operations and control risks [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, and be cautious about the upside space [40]. - For short - fiber, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and be cautious when participating [41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side, and be cautious about cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [45][46]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and pay attention to the operation of enterprise equipment and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [47][48]. - For pulp, it is expected to rebound in the short - term, and pay attention to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50][51]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [52][53]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, for soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For cotton, wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. - For sugar, conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily waiting and seeing [73][74]. - For eggs, consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. - For corn and starch, temporarily wait and see [77][79]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price is weak [80][81]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36 billion yuan. The State Council executive meeting discussed relevant policies. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain caution [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. From January to April 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures had different performances. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on EU and mobile phone products. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate industry's decline has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing. The price may decline further, but the downside space is limited. Investors can short on rebounds [13][14][15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and it is in an oscillating pattern. Investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The price may continue to fall, and investors can short on rebounds [18][19][20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, the number of oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + may increase production. The oil market may be oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The global trade demand is recovering, and the Singapore inventory has increased. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost have improved. It is expected to oscillate [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to oscillate [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The export policy has changed, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply has increased, and the cost support has weakened. Short - term caution is recommended [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply has increased, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased, and the demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, but the new device is about to be put into production. The demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line has decreased, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to the operation of equipment and the price of liquid chlorine [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to rebound in the short - term [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly [50][51]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and the support policy is being implemented. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [52][53]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin declined. Some mines are resuming production, the supply may increase, and the demand is good. It is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, the cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures are oscillating. The domestic import of rapeseed oil has increased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The US - EU trade friction may intensify, and the domestic soybean supply is abundant. For soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to cotton exports. The US cotton planting rate and production are expected to change. Wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. Conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. Some apple - producing areas may have reduced production, and the inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has changed slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is weak. Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [72][73][74]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The US - EU tariff threat affects the US corn price. The domestic corn supply is under pressure, and the demand is stable. Temporarily wait and see [77][79]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The expected arrival of logs has increased, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly [80][81].
西南期货早间评论-20250523
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 03:01
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - like market, so caution is advised [6][7]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It's advisable to consider going long on gold futures [13][14]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds. For iron ore, focus on buying opportunities at low levels. For coking coal and coke, focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [15][17][19]. - For iron alloys, consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, consider short - side operations [24][25][27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate, natural rubber to oscillate weakly, PVC to continue oscillating, urea to fluctuate narrowly, PX to be treated with caution, PTA to be operated within a range, ethylene glycol to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside, short - fiber to oscillate following the cost, bottle - chip to follow the cost, soda ash to oscillate steadily, glass to have a short - term sentiment repair, caustic soda to focus on device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations, pulp to have a short - term rebound and then pay attention to supply and demand policies, and lithium carbonate to control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [28][30][32][35][37][39][40][42][43][44][46][47][49][51]. - For copper, consider short - term shorting. For tin, expect a bearish oscillation. For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, maintain a bearish view [53][56][57][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom. For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back. For cotton, wait to go long after a pull - back. For sugar, operate within a range. For apples, focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back. For live pigs, temporarily stay on the sidelines. For eggs, consider shorting after a rebound. For corn and starch, stay on the sidelines. For logs, the market has no obvious driving force [61][64][66][70][75][79][81][83][86][88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat. The central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 90 billion yuan. Nearly 100 institutions have issued over 250 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It's advisable to be cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [8][10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The US and euro - zone PMI data were released. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate downturn suppresses prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the downward space may be limited. Consider shorting during rebounds [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high. Consider buying at low levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. Consider shorting during rebounds [19]. Iron Alloys - On the previous trading day, ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for iron alloys is weak. Consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the possible OPEC+ production increase. The supply - demand imbalance and tariff - induced consumption decline may negatively affect oil prices. Consider short - side operations [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil dropped following crude oil. The summer power - generation demand may boost the price, but the decline in crude oil prices will drive it down. Consider short - side operations [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost factors may lead to short - term strength with limited upside. It's expected to oscillate [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It's expected to continue oscillating [32][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by export news and policy intervention. It's expected to fluctuate narrowly [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand and cost factors are in a game. It's advisable to be cautious [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [38][39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply has decreased, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks drive. It's expected to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [41][42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price is oscillating, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It's expected to follow the cost [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The short - term supply has decreased, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance persists. It's expected to oscillate steadily [44][45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The short - term market sentiment may be repaired [46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell slightly. The production has decreased, the inventory is at a neutral level, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is abundant. It may have a short - term rebound, and then pay attention to supply and demand policies [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. Control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [51][52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and copper may face a correction. Consider short - term shorting [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to have a bearish oscillation [55][56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell slightly, and polysilicon futures rose. The demand is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. Maintain a bearish view [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant. Be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [62][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures showed different performances. The import situation has changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [65][66]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension may be beneficial, and the weather affects the growth. Wait to go long after a pull - back [67][70]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low. Operate within a range [71][74][75]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. The production is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing. Focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back [76][78][79]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [80][81]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand may be supported during the festival. Consider shorting after a rebound [82][83]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn futures rose, and corn starch futures fell slightly. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [84][86]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [87][88].
西南期货早间评论-20250522
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:57
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, futures closed with mixed results: 30 - year down 0.08%, 10 - year flat, 5 - year up 0.03%, 2 - year up 0.02%. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. It's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, futures showed mixed performance. The eight - department joint measures support small - and - micro - enterprise financing. Despite weak recovery momentum, China's equity assets are still favored in the long - term, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold rose 3.23% and silver 2.45%. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [12][13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, futures rebounded slightly. High iron - water production supports demand, and supply pressure has eased. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels, with light positions [14][15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, futures oscillated. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke prices may resume downward adjustment. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [16][17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and investors can consider out - of - the - money call options for manganese - silicon; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [17][18] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose. OPEC + production increase and potential consumption decline due to tariffs are concerns. Short - selling the main contract is considered [19][20][21] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose. Although trade demand has recovered, short - selling the main contract is considered [22][23] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, futures fell 1.94%. Supply pressure persists, but demand and cost factors suggest short - term strength with limited upside [24][25] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, futures declined. Supply may increase, and demand may improve. A weak - oscillation trend is expected [26][27] PVC - Last trading day, futures rose 0.32%. Supply is increasing, and demand for exports is good, but the upside is limited [28][29][30] Urea - Last trading day, futures rose 0.22%. Policy adjustments and upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a strong - oscillation trend [31][32] PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 contract rose 1.17%. Short - term caution is needed due to crude - oil price fluctuations and supply - demand changes [33] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 contract rose 1.14%. Supply - demand structure has improved, but cost support is insufficient. Interval trading is considered [34] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, futures fell 0.23%. Supply has decreased, and demand has improved, but cost factors limit the upside. Oscillation adjustment is expected [35][36] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.37%. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, but cost support is weak. Follow - up cost - based oscillation is expected [37] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.36%. Raw - material prices are oscillating, and supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Follow - up cost - based operation is expected [38][39] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.47%. Short - term supply has decreased, but long - term oversupply persists. A stable - oscillation trend is expected [40] Glass - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.98%. There is no obvious driving force in the market, and short - term sentiment may recover [41][43] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the 2509 contract fell 1.33%. Production has decreased, and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [44] Pulp - Last trading day, the 2507 contract rose 0.59%. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. A short - term rebound is expected, but long - term factors need attention [45][46][47] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, futures rose 0.59%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Risk control is recommended in the short - term [48] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. After a significant increase, there is a callback pressure. Short - selling the main contract is considered [49][50] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is uncertain. A bearish - oscillation trend is expected [51] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment recovery [52] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - Last trading day, industrial - silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and a bearish view is maintained [53] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose 1.91%, and soybean - oil futures rose 0.23%. Supply is expected to be abundant, and different strategies are recommended for each [54][55][56] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. Domestic imports have decreased, and inventory is low. Considering expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [57][58][59] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures showed mixed results. Chinese imports and inventories have changed. Buying rapeseed meal after a correction is considered [60][61] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. Tariff suspension may benefit exports. Buying on dips is considered [62][63][65] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian production is low, and domestic inventory is low. Interval trading is recommended [66][68][69] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures had little change. Some regions may have reduced production, and inventory is low. Buying after a correction is considered [71][72][73] Hogs - Yesterday, the national average hog price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price was flat. Supply is increasing, and selling on rebounds is considered [76][77] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose 0.09%, and starch futures fell 0.15%. Supply pressure exists in the short - term, and temporary observation is recommended [78][79] Logs - Last trading day, the 2507 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [80][81]