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苹果周报:入库量偏低,消区表现一般-20251121
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 06:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, apple production has declined, the excellent fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. The market expects that the cold storage inventory data is likely to be low. The effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. However, due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [16]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy a. Spot Analysis - In Shandong and Shanxi, some apple sources are still being stored in cold storage, and ground trading is gradually ending. Inventory trading is limited. In the sales areas, it is still the off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The increasing supply of citrus squeezes the apple sales space. The prices in major producing areas vary. For example, in Shandong, the ground transaction price of late Fuji has different ranges for different sizes and grades; in Shaanxi, the出库 prices also vary by region and fruit quality [7]. b. Supply Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 55.69%, 7.94 percentage points lower than the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 12.48%. This week, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.18 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 0.32%. Shandong and Shaanxi have different inventory trends. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong increased by 0.57 percentage points, and in Shaanxi, it decreased by 0.08 percentage points. As of November 19, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 773.16 million tons, an increase of 8.92 million tons from last week [12]. c. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has little change. The market is mainly dominated by Gansu apple sources, and the sales of Yunnan smooth - skinned apples have slowed down. The enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers for purchasing is not high. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 20 was 7.18 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and at a high level in recent years. The profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [15]. d. Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, and the cold storage inventory peak is likely to be lower than last year. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Single - sided: Due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Options: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines [16]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking a. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - There are data on apple exports, planting areas, and consumption, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. b. Inventory and Shipment - There are trend charts of national and Shandong cold storage apple inventory and national cold storage apple shipment, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. c. Price Spread and Basis - There are data on 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 price spread, 5 - 10 price spread, and 10 - 1 price spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part.
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251121
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].
银河期货航运日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 14:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market has differences in views on the spot freight rate trend in December. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The SCFIS European Line index is expected to remain low in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the December quotes. Although shipping companies have improved long - term cargo and opened the December GRI window, the market has differences in the implementation expectations. The demand is expected to gradually improve from November to December, and the supply capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. Geopolitical factors such as the Israel - Gaza conflict may also affect the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On November 20, EC2512 closed at 1775.7 points, up 0.7% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported 1417 USD/TEU on November 14, up 7.11% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported on Monday was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% month - on - month, lower than expected, mainly due to the decline in MSK freight rates [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of spot freight rates, shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, and they have opened the December GRI window. However, the market has differences in the implementation expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in November/December is 26.55/28.33 million TEU, and in January 2026 it is 29.58 million TEU. The capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. Geopolitical factors such as the Israel - Gaza conflict may also affect the market [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, due to differences in implementation expectations, the short - term trend is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Geopolitical news: The Israeli military's air strikes on multiple places in Gaza have caused 25 deaths, and Hamas has condemned the Israeli military's attacks on multiple places in the Gaza Strip [7][8]. 3.3 Related Figures The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European Line index and the SCFIS US West Line index, the SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates on various routes such as Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, and Shanghai - Europe, as well as the basis of EC12 and EC02 contracts [10][11][13][17].
橡胶板块2025年11月第2周报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:39
潘盛杰 研究所 化工团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号:Z0014607 橡胶板块2025年11月第2周报 供应方面:天然橡胶产量4.43万吨,环比增21.70%,进口量13.0万吨,环比增1.56%。国内云南产区因降温减量,海南产区干含下滑;泰 国南部降雨影响供应,东北部供应释放加快。顺丁橡胶产量3.08万吨,环比增5.57%,产能利用率69.92%。扬子石化、四川石化装置重启 ,浙江石化和振华新材料装置仍检修,预计下周期振华新材料装置重启,茂名和浙江传化装置计划检修。 库存:天然橡胶社会库存105.63万吨,环比增0.03%;青岛地区库存44.95万吨,环比增0.40%,整体累库,保税库小幅去库,一般贸易库 累库。顺丁橡胶样本企业库存3.08万吨,环比增5.22%,民营资源出货转弱,生产企业库存增长。 BR-RU价差分析:自2024年10月起,丁二烯和顺丁橡胶表观需求增加,利空顺丁橡胶(BR);2024年2月至2025年2月,天然橡胶东南亚 主产国产量和出口持续增加,利空天然橡胶(RU)。尽管天胶供应增速放缓,但估值仍支持其相对于合成橡胶走弱。价差逻辑需综合考量 天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶的供需比值的变化,以及重点关注 ...
银河期货甲醇日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:34
【重要资讯】 本周(20251114-1120)中国甲醇产量为 2014185 吨,较上周增加 41210 吨,装置产能利 用率为 88.77%,环比涨 2.09%。 研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场:期货盘面触底反弹,最终报收 2016(-0/-0%)。 2、现货市场:生产地,内蒙南线报价 1920 元/吨,北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1880 元/吨,榆林地区报价 1910 元/吨,山西地区报价 1970 元/吨,河南地区报价 2000 元/吨。消费地,鲁南地区市场报价 2070 元/吨,鲁北报价 2160 元/吨,河北地区 报价 2070 元/吨。 西南地区,川渝地区市场报价 1980 元/吨,云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口,太仓市场报价 1990 元/吨,宁波报价 1970 元/吨,广州报价 1970 元/吨。 1 / 4 研究员:张孟超 从业资格号:F3068848 投资咨询资格证号: Z0017786 联系方式: zhangmengchao_qh@ chinastock.com.cn 【逻辑分析】 供应端 ...
银河期货尿素日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although domestic demand is limited, new export quotas have been issued, increasing the influence of the international market on the domestic market. Some downstream enterprises are replenishing at low prices, and the receipt situation of urea enterprises has improved significantly. - In the medium term, urea is expected to be weak. The influence of the fourth - batch export quota will fade, overall demand will be weak, downstream acceptance will decrease as the ex - factory price rises, and the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1665 (0/0%). - Spot market: The ex - factory price increased slightly, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1600 - 1610 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1540 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251113 - 1119), the capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based urea in China decreased. The coal - based urea capacity utilization rate was 87.23%, a 0.30% decrease from the previous week, and the gas - based urea capacity utilization rate was 72.55%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week. This was due to the shutdown of 3 coal - based enterprises' devices and the resumption of 1 coal - based enterprise's shutdown device [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily output has increased to around 20.4 tons. The inventory of urea production enterprises has decreased by 46,000 tons to around 1.43 million tons, but it is still at a high level. - Demand: The fourth - batch export quota has been issued, increasing the influence of international prices on the domestic market. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots procurement is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. - Price trend: In Shandong, the ex - factory price is expected to decline; in Henan, it is expected to follow the decline; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, it is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overall, in the short term, urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium term, it is expected to be weak [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]
银河期货煤炭日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:31
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Coal Daily Report, November 20, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [6][9] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact Information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5][13] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On November 20, the port market showed a stalemate between supply and demand, with overall stable quotes. Different calorific value coal prices are provided for various regions including ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei [2] Group 3: Important Information - Power Generation: In October, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 18, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall [4] - Import: Chinese demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. Indonesian precipitation affected the supply, and overseas cargo volumes were limited, with miners having a strong willingness to hold prices [4] - Demand: This week's demand was average. Chinese procurement demand weakened, while that of Japan and South Korea was average, and India's procurement demand did not improve. Most power plants' operating loads were in the 60% - 70% range, and their inventories were at medium - to - high levels [4] - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. Port inventory was generally stable. As of November 20, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 24.48 million tons, at a neutral level in history [4] - Price Forecast: It is expected that coal prices will remain stable in the short term. The coal mine output in the main producing areas is low, power plant inventories are decreasing, and the import profit is open. Coastal power plants are increasing procurement, and port prices have risen [4] Group 5: Related Charts - Charts include coal inventories and consumption data of various regions and power plants from 2022 to 2025, such as national port inventory, power plant inventory, and daily consumption [7][8]
银河期货铁矿石日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
Report Summary - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: DCE01 closed at 788.5, down 3.0 from yesterday; DCE05 at 753.0, down 2.0; DCE09 at 728.0, down 2.0 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PB powder (60.8%) remained unchanged at 790; Newman powder dropped 2 to 790; Macarthur powder dropped 2 to 786; etc [2] - **Base Prices**: The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines, with 01 factory - warehouse basis at 46, 05 at 82, and 09 at 107 [2] - **Price Spreads**: Carajás fines - PB powder spread decreased 5 to 94; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread decreased 2 to 44; etc [2] - **Import Profits**: Carajás fines' import profit decreased 13 to 3; Newman powder's decreased 1 to 18; etc [2] - **Platts Index**: Platts 62% iron ore price dropped 0.1 to 105.1; Platts 65% dropped 0.1 to 117.1; Platts 58% dropped 0.1 to 93.9 [2] - **Domestic - Foreign Dollar Spreads**: SGX main - DCE01 spread decreased 1.0 to 2.2; SGX main - DCE05 spread decreased 0.7 to 6.8; SGX main - DCE09 spread decreased 0.5 to 10.0 [2] 2. Graphical Data - **Base Price Graphs**: There are graphs showing the basis between the optimal delivery product and 01, 05, 09 contracts over time [8][11] - **Import Profit Graphs**: Graphs display the import profits of PB powder, PB lump, Super Special powder, Carajás fines over the years [13][20] - **Price Spread Graphs**: Graphs show the price spreads of PB lump - PB powder, Carajás fines - PB powder, and iron ore domestic - foreign dollar spreads [24][28] - **Profit - Spread Relationship Graph**: A graph shows the relationship between steel mill cash profits and high - medium - low grade price spreads [28]
塑料PP每日早盘观察-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations and analyses of the plastic (L) and polypropylene (PP) markets from October 27 to November 25, 2025, including market conditions, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies. Market conditions show fluctuations in contract prices and market prices of L and PP, influenced by factors such as futures trends, production enterprise price adjustments, and downstream demand. Important news covers various aspects such as corporate establishment, strategic cooperation, and industry development. Logical analyses consider factors like production volume, economic indicators, and industry indices to assess impacts on the market. Trading strategies suggest different actions for L and PP contracts, including holding, trying long or short positions, and setting stop - loss points [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: Contract prices fluctuated, with daily changes ranging from - 0.67% to + 0.82%. Market prices showed partial increases, decreases, or mixed trends, with price changes in different regions ranging from 10 - 110 yuan/ton. Downstream demand was generally weak, with factories showing low procurement enthusiasm and mostly making small - quantity or on - demand purchases [1][4][7]. - **PP Polypropylene**: Contract prices also fluctuated, with daily changes from - 0.82% to + 0.34%. The market was characterized by narrow fluctuations, weak trends, or partial price adjustments. Downstream demand was cautious, with low inventory - building willingness and a preference for low - price sources [1][4][7]. Important News - **Corporate Events**: Include the establishment of new companies such as Wan华绿能 (东明) 清洁能源有限公司, strategic cooperation like the one between 中化塑料 and 陶氏化学, and corporate acquisitions such as 中国浙江艾昕尔丝袜公司's acquisition of 西班牙百年尼龙企业 Nylstar [7][16][23]. - **Industry Developments**: Involve the release of industry rankings, the implementation of new projects like 中国石油广西石化公司's 120 -万吨/年乙烯装置, and the issuance of industry - related policies such as 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025—2026 年)》[54][37][62]. - **Economic Data**: Include industrial production and sales data, PMI data, and logistics industry indices, which reflect the overall economic situation and industry trends [34][31][58]. Logical Analyses - **Supply - side Factors**: Consider factors such as domestic and international production volume changes of polypropylene, PE and PP capacity utilization rates, and inventory changes of relevant products [8][14][31]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Analyze factors like downstream industry demand (e.g., automotive, home appliance), economic policy uncertainty, and industry indices (e.g., PMI, logistics industry index) [2][34][31]. - **Other Factors**: Include stock index trends, freight index changes, and the relationship between different economic indicators [17][38][11]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggest different strategies for L and PP contracts, including holding long or short positions, trying long or short positions, or taking a wait - and - see approach, and setting corresponding stop - loss points [2][5][8]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Most of the time, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8]. - **Options Trading**: Usually, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][5][8].
银河期货粕类日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 10:52
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the international soybean market is currently in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The US soybean market shows a relatively strong trend due to increased exports, but the Brazilian soybean market may face price pressure in the medium - term. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are under downward pressure, with soybean meal performing stronger than rapeseed meal. The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for both single - side trading and arbitrage, and to use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [3][4][7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean oil market rumors of postponed biodiesel incentive measures, leading to a decline in the US soybean oil futures price, and the US soybean futures price showed high - level fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices declined, with the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both also declined [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - The monthly supply - demand report was bullish, but the US soybean futures price faced downward pressure after the report. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply factors are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean exports and crushing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited. Overall, the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively loose [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a loose supply - demand situation, with increasing oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing提货量. As of November 14, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0776 million tons, the operating rate was 57.15%, soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 1.87% from the previous week and an increase of 40.92% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors The macro - economic impact on the market is expected to be limited after the short - term reaction, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes. The US government ended the shutdown, and China - US negotiations sent positive signals. China resumed the soybean import qualifications of three US companies, but the impact on the long - term market supply is uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and soybean meal performs stronger than rapeseed meal. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal will fluctuate, and those of rapeseed meal may continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [8].