Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye is 3130 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3270 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3180 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core View - Steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. Although there is support from manufacturing demand and raw material replenishment expectations, the seasonal decline in building material demand and potential production resumption at the end of the month will suppress the upward space of steel prices [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a range-bound volatile trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest shorting the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Important Information - Li Qiang stated that central enterprises should carry out new infrastructure construction moderately ahead of schedule and play a leading role in achieving self - controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain [9] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, win the battle of ensuring the delivery of buildings, continue to implement the policy "combination punch", and other measures [9][10] Group 3: Related Appendices - The appendices include various charts such as those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profit margins from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of the oil market is oscillating, lacking clear driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips for a potential rebound, but the rebound height may be limited [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil on the 2605 contract is 7772 with no change. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8272, 8322, and 8192 respectively, with basis values of 550, 500, and 420. The closing price of palm oil on the 2605 contract is 8486, up 72. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8466, 8516, and 8616 respectively, with basis values of - 20, 30, and 130. The closing price of rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract is 8847, down 17. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong are 9377, with a basis value of 530 [2] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 54, down 24; the 5 - 9 monthly spread of palm oil is 114, down 2; the 5 - 9 monthly spread of rapeseed oil is - 1, up 3 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 714, down 72; the OI - Y spread is 1075; the OI - P spread is 361, down 89; the oil - meal ratio is 2.83, down 0.004 [2] - **Import Profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 309, with a CNF price of 1038. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1545, with an FOB price of 1058 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 51st week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 112.4 million tons, down from 113.7 million tons last year; the commercial inventory of palm oil is 70.0 million tons, up from 52.8 million tons last week; the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil is 30.8 million tons, down from 33.3 million tons last week and 47.1 million tons last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The Indonesian Biodiesel Producers Association (APROBI) revealed that Indonesia's biofuel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters. Indonesia has implemented the B40 policy and plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of December 19, 2025 (the 51st week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 700,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47,300 tons or 7.25%. The origin's quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to around - 300. The basis is stable. After a sharp decline, it shows a technical rebound. One can consider buying on dips for a rebound, but the rebound height may be limited [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of December 19, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1.1235 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,900 tons or 1.22%. The inventory has reached an inflection point, the basis is stable with a slight decline. The market trading is light, and some oil mills have stopped production due to lack of soybeans. In the later period, as soybean arrivals decrease, soybean oil inventory may decline slightly, but overall supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of December 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 336,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around $1100, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1500. The domestic rapeseed supply is expected to improve, the basis is stable with a slight decline, and the demand side lacks highlights. The market is worried about the full - scale import of Australian rapeseed, and the international rapeseed price is weak, leading to short - selling of the spread and a weakening of the rapeseed oil price. The price is expected to face pressure [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term, the oil market lacks driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and an overall oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see. After the price stabilizes on a decline, one can consider buying on dips for a rebound, but the rebound height may be limited [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 5 - 9 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread, with corresponding data sources [14][15][18][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market trends, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Anticipated to rise in a volatile manner. The market showed an overall upward trend on Monday, with major indices rising. The contract prices also increased, but trading volume and open interest decreased in some varieties. It's recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a double - buying options strategy [20][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment was under pressure. Futures prices fell across the board on Monday, and the spot yield was divided. It's advisable to buy the TL contract on dips, with caution on chasing highs and timely profit - taking, and to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The market is in a stage of stability with a large decline in the price. The international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal has price support but limited sustainability. It's recommended to take a bearish view, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short - straddle options strategy [25][26][27]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, while domestic sugar prices are in adjustment after a significant decline. International supply pressure is easing, and the domestic market has supply and cost factors at play. It's suggested to expect bottom - range fluctuations for international sugar and a shock - adjustment trend for domestic sugar, conduct a long - January and short - May arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [28][29][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is a technical rebound. Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing slightly, and there is limited upward momentum due to factors such as slow de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil. It's recommended to consider buying palm oil on dips for a rebound, with a view of shorting after the rebound, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [32][33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market is in bottom - range oscillations. U.S. corn shows a strong trend, and domestic corn has different trends in different regions. It's advisable to buy on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35][36]. - **Live Pigs**: The market has a large supply, and spot prices are in a stage of stability. The overall supply pressure remains, and it's recommended to hold short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is in a weak - range oscillation. The supply of oil peanuts is abundant, and it's suggested to short the 03 contract on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and prices are falling. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and it's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for near - term contracts and consider going long on the far - term May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and prices are stable. The apple yield has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is likely to be low. It's advisable to expect limited downward space, conduct a long - 1 and short - 10 arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [46][47][48]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: New cotton sales are good, and prices are rising in a volatile manner. The new cotton sales progress is fast, and there are positive factors such as potential reduction in planting area and expansion of textile capacity. It's recommended to expect range - bound oscillations for U.S. cotton and a rising trend for Chinese cotton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [49][50][51]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range as the restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled. The black sector was in a volatile and strong trend at night, with changes in steel production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to expect a volatile and strong trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio and hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [54][55]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There is a bottom - rebound, and attention should be paid to the change in trading logic. The coking coal auction situation has improved, but Mongolian coal brings pressure. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or buy on dips with light positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate as market expectations are fluctuating. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and domestic demand is weak. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60][61]. - **Ferroalloys**: There is a short - term rebound due to cost support and anti - cut - throat competition expectations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is decreasing, and there is cost support. It's recommended to expect a short - term rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell a short - straddle options combination [62][63]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical tensions and interest - rate cut expectations drive the price up. Gold reached a new high, and silver also hit a record high. It's recommended to hold long positions for Shanghai gold based on the previous high and hold long positions for Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [64][65][67]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm is high, and attention should be paid to position management. The market shows a strong trend, and it's advisable to go long on dips based on the MA5, conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [68][69][70]. - **Copper**: It's recommended to buy after a full correction. The price is affected by factors such as long - term contract processing fees, inventory, and market sentiment. It's advisable to expect a short - term strong oscillation and a long - term upward trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options [71][72][73]. - **Alumina**: The price is in a weak - range oscillation. Spot prices are falling, and there are factors such as bauxite supply and inventory. It's advisable to expect a weak - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [74][75][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price is oscillating at a high level with strong fundamental support. The global shortage situation persists, and domestic demand has resilience. It's recommended to expect a medium - term upward trend after a correction, conduct an arbitrage when the import loss widens, and stay on the sidelines for options [79]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is oscillating at a high level as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The cost provides support, but demand is weakening. It's advisable to expect a high - level oscillation, conduct an arbitrage when the price corrects, and stay on the sidelines for options [80][81]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely as there are both bullish and bearish factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82][83][84]. - **Lead**: The price is oscillating within a range as supply and demand are both weak. The price is affected by factors such as environmental protection and inventory. It's advisable to expect a range - bound oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Nickel**: The price is rising due to Indonesia's policy expectations. The market is affected by import data and policy expectations. It's advisable to expect an upward test of resistance, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a bull - spread options strategy [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is following nickel and showing a strong trend. The price is supported by factors such as inventory and resource tightness. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [90][92]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It's recommended to sell on rallies. The supply is in a state of inventory accumulation, and demand is weak. It's advisable to sell on rallies, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93]. - **Polysilicon**: It's in a long - term upward trend, but short - term risk management is necessary. There are positive factors in the long - term, but short - term demand is weak. It's advisable to be cautious in the short - term, conduct a long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [94][95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is highly volatile at a high level, and cautious operation is recommended. The import data and market sentiment affect the price. It's advisable to operate cautiously, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [96][97][98]. - **Tin**: The price may be adjusted at a high level as the raw material supply remains tight. The import of tin concentrate has recovered, but downstream consumption is weak. It's advisable to expect a high - level adjustment, stay on the sidelines for options [99][100]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The SCFIS index fails to meet expectations, and the 12 - contract is expected to correct downward. The spot freight rate has improved, but the index is affected by low - price goods. It's recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and pay attention to the freight volume improvement, and expect the far - term contract to be under pressure, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [101][102][104]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is recovering due to geopolitical tensions. The settlement price of crude oil futures has increased. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, conduct an arbitrage on gasoline, diesel, and crude oil spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [106][107]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material has risks, and the spot price is under pressure. The price is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost. It's advisable to expect a wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [108][109][110]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are in a weak - oscillating state. The market is affected by supply, demand, and inventory. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, conduct an arbitrage on the cracking spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [111][113][114]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH is waiting for guidance. The price is affected by weather and demand. It's advisable to buy the HH2602 contract for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell TTF call options [115][116][117]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. The market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand. It's advisable to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [118][119]. - **PX & PTA**: The cost center has risen, and polyester sales have declined. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, conduct a calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [120][121][122]. - **BZ & EB**: Pure benzene supply is abundant, and styrene export boosts market sentiment. The price is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, short pure benzene and long styrene, and stay on the sidelines for options [123][124][126]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is great pressure on inventory reduction. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a short - term oscillation and a medium - term weak trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [128][129]. - **Short - Fiber**: It rebounds following the cost, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [130][132]. - **Bottle Chip**: It rebounds following the cost, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a strong - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [133][134]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are weak, and downstream profit improvement is poor with no obvious increase in开工. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short - straddle options strategy [135][136]. - **Plastic PP**: The growth rate of primary plastic production has slightly narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to hold short positions in the L - 2605 contract and set a stop - loss, and try long positions in the PP - 2605 contract with a stop - loss, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [137][138]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140][142]. - **PVC**: The price is continuing to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak rebound, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [143][144]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is continuing to decline. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - term contract [146][147]. - **Glass**: The futures price is in a weak trend. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [148][149]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating within a range. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to expect an oscillating and strong trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [150][152]. - **Urea**: Downstream resists high prices. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to go long on the 05 contract, conduct a 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [153][154]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating widely at a high level with weak reality and strong expectation. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines or short on a small scale for aggressive investors, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [155][156][158]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines, conduct a 3 - 5 reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [161][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory has reached a new high, and cost support is weak. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines and short, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [165][166]. - **Natural Rubber**: The growth rate of tire exports has narrowed. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the RU - 05 contract and the NR - 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [167][168][169]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Tire exports are increasing month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and demand. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines for the BR - 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread with a stop - loss, and stay on the sidelines for options [170][171][172].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Iron Ore Daily Report [2] - Report date: December 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data - DCE01 price: 797.5, down 0.5 from yesterday [2] - DCE05 price: 781.5, up 1.5 from yesterday [2] - DCE09 price: 760.5, up 2.5 from yesterday [2] - I01 - I05 spread: 16.0, down 2.0 from yesterday [2] - I05 - I09 spread: 21.0, down 1.0 from yesterday [2] - I09 - I01 spread: -37.0, up 3.0 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - PB powder (60.8%) price: 791, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder price: 793, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder price: 787, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder (60.5%) price: 748, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill powder price: 781, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Super Special powder price: 677, down 1 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (62.5%) price: 831, up 1 from yesterday [2] - BRBF (63%) price: 837, up 1 from yesterday [2] - FMG price: 738, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder price: 874, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Karara concentrate price: 877, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Ukrainian concentrate price: 875, up 2 from yesterday [2] - IOC6 price: 765, up 1 from yesterday [2] - KUMBA price: 871, up 1 from yesterday [2] - SP10 price: 732, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Minmetals standard powder price: 807, up 2 from yesterday [2] - Optimal delivery product: Carajás powder [2] Group 4: Spot Price Spreads and Import Profits - Carajás powder - PB powder spread: 79, up 1 from yesterday [2] - Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 45, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 126, up 1 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Jinbuba powder spread: 47, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Newman lump - Newman powder spread: 72, up 3 from yesterday [2] - Roy Hill lump - Roy Hill powder spread: 14, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Mac powder - Super Special powder spread: 110, up 2 from yesterday [2] - PB powder - Super Special powder spread: 118, up 2 from yesterday [2] - PB lump - PB powder spread: 77, down 1 from yesterday [2] - Carajás powder import profit: -29, up 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - Newman powder import profit: 50, up 18 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB powder import profit: -3, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - Jinbuba powder import profit: 42, up 13 from the day before yesterday [2] - Super Special powder import profit: -3, up 4 from the day before yesterday [2] - PB lump import profit: 88, up 2 from the day before yesterday [2] - BRBF import profit: 10, up 8 from the day before yesterday [2] - Mac powder import profit: 41, up 10 from the day before yesterday [2] - FMG import profit: 9, up 5 from the day before yesterday [2] Group 5: Platts Index and USD Spreads - Platts Iron Ore 62% price: 108.2, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 65% price: 121.2, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - Platts Iron Ore 58% price: 94.0, down 0.4 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE01 spread: 0.9, down 0.2 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE05 spread: 3.2, down 0.4 from yesterday [2] - SGX主力 - DCE09 spread: 6.0, down 0.5 from yesterday [2]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 涨跌 | | | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,631.0 | 0.9 | 0.06% | 100.0 | -46.24% | 1,956.0 | -1.36% | | EC2602 | 1,871.8 | 152.0 | 8.84% | 52,704.0 | 66.66% | 36,510.0 | 15.88% | | EC2604 | 1,166.8 | 38.0 | 3.37% | 11,708.0 | 177.11% | 20,471.0 | 8.67% | | EC26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. The peak cold - storage apple inventory this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the futures market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is expected to be limited [16] Summary by Directory Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy Spot Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late Fuji apple production areas remains light. Traders' enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers has decreased, mainly packaging pre - ordered and self - stored goods. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of ordinary and lower - quality apples from fruit farmers have loosened. In the sales areas, the sales are still slow, with the sales volume lower than the same period last year. Oranges and other citrus fruits are competing with apples [6] - In Shandong, a small number of traders package self - stored goods for shipment. The export demand has decreased, and the prices of fruit for preserves and small fruits have loosened. In Shaanxi, the prices of fruit from fruit farmers in secondary production areas have slightly declined, and the overall shipment is mainly from traders' self - stored goods. The Christmas and New Year stocking atmosphere is not strong [6] Supply Analysis - In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 54.70%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points this week. The cold - storage shipment has increased, especially for inferior fruits. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 52.59%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points. Traders are more pessimistic, and the demand for low - quality fruits is okay [11] - As of December 17, 2025, the total cold - storage apple inventory in the main production areas is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons from last week, and the sales are slower than last year [11] Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of arriving trucks has increased. The market is generally light, with only high - quality apples from Gansu selling well. Second - and third - level wholesalers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, and the inventory in transit warehouses is piling up [14] - As of December 18, the average wholesale price of six key monitored fruits is 7.66 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [14] Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Due to low production and poor quality, the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the market is currently weak, the downward space is limited [16] - Unilateral: The futures market is technically weak, but the downward space is limited [16] - Arbitrage: Go long on the January contract and short on the October contract [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16] Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The document provides data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume from 2018 - 2023, but no specific analysis is given [20] Inventory and Shipment - The document presents historical data on national, Shandong, and Shaanxi cold - storage apple inventory and shipment, but no specific analysis is given [23] Spread and Basis - The document shows historical data on the basis of January, May, and October contracts and the spreads between 1 - 5, 5 - 10, and 10 - 1 contracts, but no specific analysis is given [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The apple yield has decreased this year, with a poor high - quality fruit rate and increased storage difficulty. Cold - storage inventory data is low, and the effective inventory is likely to be low, indicating a strong fundamental situation for apples. Although the market sales are average recently and the market shows technical weakness, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited considering the yield issue [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day. The 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.74, up 0.06. Prices of some varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 9575, down 10; AP05 is at 9149, down 50; AP10 is at 8101, down 49. The spreads between contracts also show some changes, such as AP01 - AP05 up 40 and AP05 - AP10 down 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts shows some fluctuations. For example, the basis against AP01 is - 1375, up 10 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News** - As of December 17, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.57 million tons, with sales slower than the same period last year [7]. - In October 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 is 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. The export volume in October 2025 is about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7]. - The apple market remains stable, with increased trading activity in production areas. In Shandong, traders mainly buy low - price and other - variety products. In the northwest, traders mainly package their own inventory, and the sales of third - grade and inferior fruits are okay [7]. - In Shaanxi's Luochuan, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity cold - storage apples (70 and above) is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin. Traders mainly package their own inventory, and farmers are willing to sell but still hold out for higher prices [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and watch whether key levels can be effectively broken [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on 1 and short on 10 [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in some places, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [11][13][18][20][23].

Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 22, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,408.35, up 1.07%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 146,625 lots, a decrease of 34,234 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 349,926 lots, a decrease of 9,760 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - The main contract of IM rose 0% to close at 7,203.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 204.75 points, a decrease of 16.74 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -11.66% [4][5]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.56 points, 0.56 points, 0.56 points, and 43.43 points respectively [5]. Main Seats - In the IM2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) [19]. IF Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,611.62, up 0.95%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 92,818 lots, a decrease of 20,870 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 263,391 lots, a decrease of 6,175 lots from the previous day [24][25]. - The main contract of IF rose 0% to close at 4,564.8 points. The main contract was at a discount of 46.82 points, a decrease of 5.64 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -4.21% [24][25]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 4.31 points, 4.76 points, 4.76 points, and 35.95 points respectively [25]. Main Seats - In the IF2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), and CITIC Construction Investment (on behalf of clients) [37]. IC Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,255.66, up 1.20%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 103,188 lots, a decrease of 20,574 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 256,784 lots, an increase of 449 lots from the previous day [42][43]. - The main contract of IC rose 0% to close at 7,123.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 132.46 points, a decrease of 18.31 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -7.63% [42][43]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.6 points, 0.6 points, 0.6 points, and 65.87 points respectively [43]. Main Seats - In the IC2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) [55]. IH Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,020.23, up 0.53%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 36,995 lots, a decrease of 12,536 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 83,589 lots, a decrease of 1,987 lots from the previous day [61][62]. - The main contract of IH rose 0% to close at 3,018.4 points. The main contract was at a discount of 1.83 points, a decrease of 3.89 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.25% [61][62]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 5.39 points, 5.39 points, 5.39 points, and 23.87 points respectively [62]. Main Seats - In the IH2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short - term will be relatively gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3077, JD05 at 3496, and JD09 at 3974, all unchanged from the previous day. The spreads between different months (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) also remained unchanged [2]. - Price ratios: Ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day, while the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. Egg prices in most regions were stable, with some local fluctuations [2][4]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2348 yuan, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the average price of soybean meal was 3118 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.58 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was - 0.37 yuan/feather, down 2.87 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg production and sales: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas as of December 18 was 7023 tons, remaining at a low level over the years [5]. - Chicken inventory and production: The number of culled chickens in the main production areas as of December 18 was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 486 days, remaining unchanged [5]. - Profit situation: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, showing a slight recovery; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, down 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory situation: As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, showing a slight decrease, while the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, showing a slight increase [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that near - month contracts will fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. One can consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Sales Remain Stable, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Uptrend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to continue trading within a range due to limited fundamental contradictions. The domestic cotton market is expected to see cotton prices continue to fluctuate with an upward bias due to better - than - normal new cotton sales in the short term and stable downstream demand [8][29] Summary by Directory Part I: International and Domestic Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the US cotton is expected to continue trading within a range. As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.225 million tons, accounting for 72.5% of the annual US cotton production forecast, 10% slower than the same period last year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are rising. The sales volume of US upland cotton decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume increased slightly [8] - **Brazil**: As of December 13, the cotton planting in the 2025/26 season was 10.1% complete, 4.8 percentage points higher than the previous period but 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The planting progress in the early stage was slower due to the late harvest of soybeans in some areas [8] - **India**: The CAI's latest report shows that compared with the previous month, the production, import, and export of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season have been adjusted, and the domestic demand has been reduced, resulting in a 230,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8] - **Global**: According to the latest USDA forecast in December, the global cotton production decreased by 64,000 tons to 26.08 million tons, consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending stocks remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of December 17, 2025, the cumulative official inspection of cotton was 5.587795 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.66%. The new cotton picking is basically over, and the processing has entered the final stage. Cotton companies are more willing to build inventories, and the sentiment of holding back sales has increased [29] - **Demand Side**: As of December 4, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.736 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of December 18, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.2%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week. Spinning mills are cautious about replenishing stocks, and the raw material inventory days are slowly decreasing [29] Option Trading Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7094, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly trade within a range in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [47] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The document shows the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 month price difference trend, which can help understand the price relationship between domestic and international cotton and the price difference between different contract months [50][51] - **Mid - end Situation**: It presents the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric, reflecting the production and inventory status of the mid - end of the cotton industry chain [54] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill industrial inventory, and reserve inventory, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation of the cotton market [56] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the average basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton, and the basis of C32S cotton yarn spot - Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract, which is important for analyzing the relationship between spot and futures prices [59]