研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8224 | (132) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8484 | | | | 8524 | 8384 | | 300 | 0 | 260 | -10 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8646 | (206) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8596 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Peanut Daily Report, dated November 20, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Liu Dayong, with futures trading certificate number F03107370 and investment consulting certificate number Z0018389 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The short - term peanut spot price is relatively stable due to stable domestic peanut prices, stable import peanut prices, large price differences between oil - type and commodity peanuts, a high price difference between Henan and Northeast peanuts, increased supply, and weak downstream demand [4][8] - Peanut oil spot prices are stable, peanut meal prices have been stable recently, and oil mills' theoretical crushing profits are good [4][6][8] - The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at the bottom, and there is still room for the price of the new - season peanut 01 contract to decline because the expected output of the new - season peanuts is higher than last year, and the planting cost has decreased [8] Group 4: Summary of Each Section Part 1: Data Futures Market - PK604 closed at 7816, down 26 (-0.33%), with a trading volume of 28,344 (-12.99%) and an open interest of 18,927 (-3.62%) - PK510 closed at 8152, up 2 (+0.02%), with a trading volume of 30 (-57.75%) and an open interest of 633 (-1.86%) - PK601 closed at 7788, down 6 (-0.08%), with a trading volume of 80,370 (-22.75%) and an open interest of 136,355 (-10.13%) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7200, 7600, and 7600 respectively, with no change - The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, and Rizhao soybean meal was 3000, with no change - The price of peanut oil was 14550, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8450, down 100 [2] Import Prices - The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600, and Senegalese peanuts was 7600, with no change [2] Spreads - PK01 - PK04 spread was - 28, up 20; PK04 - PK10 spread was - 336, down 28; PK10 - PK01 spread was 364, up 8 [2] Part 2: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. For example, 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin were 4.45 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning were 4.5 yuan/jin. Henan's Baisha common peanuts were 3.55 - 3.85 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Junan were 3.5 yuan/jin - Imported peanut prices were stable, with Sudanese refined peanuts at 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese at 7600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts at 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts at 8000 yuan/ton - Some peanut oil mills started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price at 7200 - 7350 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 7900 yuan/ton - Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton - Rizhao soybean meal spot price fell to 2990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal was relatively strong in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3210 yuan/ton [4][6] Part 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Peanut contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a low level. Short - sell the 01 contract on rallies [9] - Spread: Reverse - arbitrage the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [10] - Options: Hold the short position of the pk601 - P - 7600 put option [11] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill crushing profits, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, 10 - 1 contract spreads, and 1 - 4 contract spreads [13][18][20]

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3,180 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3,220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3,270 yuan (-10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3,210 yuan (-10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis Core Viewpoints - The black metal sector fluctuated and declined today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. Steel spot trading was generally weak, with mainly rigid demand at low prices. This week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and with the repair of EAF profits, rebar production resumed at an accelerated pace. The destocking speed of the total steel inventory accelerated this week, and the apparent demand for steel significantly recovered, with rebar performing better than hot-rolled coil. Recently, some blast furnaces have resumed production, but there is still room for a reduction in molten iron in the future. Affected by coal supply guarantee and the target of 100 million tons of Mongolian coal shipments, coking coal and coke prices have accelerated their decline recently, while steel and iron ore prices have risen, and the futures market has pre - reacted to the third round of coke price cuts. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds has slowed down, downstream payment collection is difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year - on - year, so there is still pressure on the upside. However, there is a structural shortage of PB iron ore powder, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited, so there is support for steel costs. Therefore, steel prices will still fluctuate within a range in the short term, and more factors are needed to break the situation. But hot-rolled coil still performs better than rebar overall, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle. [5] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price will maintain a weak oscillating trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - The overall production of the five major steel products increased by 15530 tons. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 12270 tons month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 31980 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 44250 tons. [9] - The November Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was announced: the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, the same as last month; the 1 - year LPR is 3%, the same as last month. [9] Group 3: Related Attachments - The attachments include various price and spread charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil, such as price charts, basis charts, spread charts, and profit charts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [10][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 20, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness, and the supply and demand were both weak, but the cost side provided some support. It was not advisable to chase short positions. For silicomanganese, it was expected to fluctuate at the bottom under the background of weak supply and demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5446, down 58 from the previous day and 134 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 315,918 (an increase of 83,681) and an open interest of 165,626 (an increase of 22,700). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5614, down 28 from the previous day and 142 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 148,657 (a decrease of 63,593) and an open interest of 438,614 (an increase of 2,355) [2]. - **Spot Data**: For ferrosilicon, the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton. For silicomanganese, the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The manganese ore spot in Tianjin was generally stable [2]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 168, down 30 from the previous day and up 8 from the previous week [2]. - **Raw Material Data**: The manganese ore in Tianjin was generally stable, with the price of Australian lump increasing by 0.2 from the previous week, and the price of South African semi - carbonate remaining unchanged. The prices of small - sized blue charcoal in different regions remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Ferrosilicon**: On the 20th, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The supply was expected to decline slightly due to increased maintenance in Qinghai. The demand had a downward expectation due to low steel profits. The cost was generally stable with a slight strength. It was not advisable to chase short positions [5]. - **Silicomanganese**: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot was stable with a slight weakness. The supply decreased slightly as the price fell. The demand had a downward expectation due to low steel profits. The cost was increased because of low port inventory and rising overseas quotes. It was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5]. - **Important Information**: On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate Mn37.12% at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46% was 41 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lump Mn42%Fe 3.6% was 40 yuan/ton - degree. In October 2025, China's exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 24,359.305 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.18%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative exports were 317,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.37% [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the ferroalloy electricity price, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [10][12][14][16][18][21]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The main contract of IM fell 0.48% to close at 7,263.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 211,533 lots, a decrease of 15,934 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 361,945 lots, a decrease of 2,194 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IM was at a discount of 76.81 points, an increase of 12.2 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -12.87%. The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.03 points, 1.01 points, 2.52 points, and 46.68 points respectively [3][4]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,340.41 | -0.63% | 22,754 | -5% | 3,567 | -3% | - | - | - | | IM2511 | 7,347.60 | -0.56% | 31,494 | -15% | 465 | -15% | 23,903 | -10,769 | 42 | | IM2512 | 7,263.60 | -0.48% | 140,822 | -6% | 2,054 | -6% | 205,865 | 4,785 | 359 | | IM2603 | 7,035.20 | -0.47% | 27,245 | -2% | 385 | -2% | 88,372 | 2,533 | 149 | | IM2606 | 6,807.00 | -0.45% | 11,972 | -5% | 164 | -5% | 43,805 | 1,257 | 72 | [3] Basis and Other Information - The spot price of CSI 1000 was 7,340.41 points. The current month contract (IM2511) was at a premium of 7.19 points, with a premium rate of 0.1% and an annualized premium rate of 17.9%. The next month contract (IM2512) was at a discount of 76.81 points, with a discount rate of -1.1% and an annualized discount rate of -12.9%. The first quarterly contract (IM2603) was at a discount of 305.21 points, with a discount rate of -4.3% and an annualized discount rate of -13.1%. The second quarterly contract (IM2606) was at a discount of 533.41 points, with a discount rate of -7.6% and an annualized discount rate of -13.3% [12]. Main Seats Information - The trading volume and open interest data of the main seats of each contract are detailed, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats, showing their trading volume, open long positions, open short positions, and their changes compared with the previous day [16][18][20]. IF Futures Daily Quotes - The main contract of IF fell 0.69% to close at 4,539.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 128,286 lots, an increase of 5,673 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 277,884 lots, an increase of 5,717 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IF was at a discount of 25.75 points, a decrease of 2.66 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -6.9%. The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 0.16 points, 1.25 points, 8.67 points, and 39.31 points respectively [21][22]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 300 | 4,564.95 | -0.51% | 19,456 | 13% | 4,151 | 8% | - | - | - | | IF2511 | 4,558.00 | -0.63% | 25,265 | -2% | 348 | -2% | 22,593 | -7,109 | 37 | | IF2512 | 4,539.20 | -0.69% | 83,141 | 8% | 1,140 | 8% | 165,189 | 8,865 | 270 | | IF2603 | 4,506.20 | -0.71% | 14,755 | 2% | 201 | 2% | 70,516 | 2,958 | 114 | | IF2606 | 4,461.00 | -0.69% | 5,125 | -6% | 69 | -6% | 19,586 | 1,003 | 31 | [21] Basis and Other Information - The spot price of SSE 300 was 4,564.95 points. The current month contract (IF2511) was at a discount of 6.95 points, with a discount rate of -0.2% and an annualized discount rate of -27.8%. The next month contract (IF2512) was at a discount of 25.75 points, with a discount rate of -0.6% and an annualized discount rate of -6.9%. The first quarterly contract (IF2603) was at a discount of 58.75 points, with a discount rate of -1.3% and an annualized discount rate of -3.9%. The second quarterly contract (IF2606) was at a discount of 103.95 points, with a discount rate of -2.3% and an annualized discount rate of -4.0% [30]. Main Seats Information - The trading volume and open interest data of the main seats of each contract are detailed, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats, showing their trading volume, open long positions, open short positions, and their changes compared with the previous day [34][36][37]. IC Futures Daily Quotes - The main contract of IC fell 0.84% to close at 7,000 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 137,568 lots, an increase of 4,976 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 255,979 lots, an increase of 7,467 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IC was at a discount of 61.95 points, an increase of 6 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -10.77%. The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0 points, 0.61 points, 3.57 points, and 58.13 points respectively [39][40]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7,061.95 | -0.85% | 15,962 | -2% | 2,542 | -1% | - | - | - | | IC2511 | 7,063.40 | -0.88% | 22,062 | -12% | 314 | -12% | 14,506 | -7,367 | 25 | | IC2512 | 7,000.00 | -0.84% | 89,650 | 7% | 1,262 | 7% | 154,013 | 12,102 | 259 | | IC2603 | 6,821.40 | -0.86% | 18,776 | 6% | 258 | 6% | 62,823 | 1,147 | 103 | | IC2606 | 6,615.00 | -0.87% | 7,080 | 14% | 94 | 13% | 24,637 | 1,585 | 39 | [39] Basis and Other Information - The spot price of CSI 500 was 7,061.95 points. The current month contract (IC2511) was at a premium of 1.45 points, with a premium rate of 0.0% and an annualized premium rate of 3.7%. The next month contract (IC2512) was at a discount of 61.95 points, with a discount rate of -0.9% and an annualized discount rate of -10.8%. The first quarterly contract (IC2603) was at a discount of 240.55 points, with a discount rate of -3.4% and an annualized discount rate of -10.6%. The second quarterly contract (IC2606) was at a discount of 446.95 points, with a discount rate of -6.3% and an annualized discount rate of -11.5% [49]. Main Seats Information - The trading volume and open interest data of the main seats of each contract are detailed, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats, showing their trading volume, open long positions, open short positions, and their changes compared with the previous day [54][56][58]. IH Futures Daily Quotes - The main contract of IH fell 0.49% to close at 3,002.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 58,076 lots, an increase of 4,537 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 97,775 lots, an increase of 2,538 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IH was at a discount of 5.69 points, an increase of 3.66 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -2.31%. The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0 points, 0.97 points, 9.01 points, and 27.63 points respectively [60][61]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3,008.29 | -0.40% | 5,404 | 12% | 1,010 | 1% | - | - | - | | IH2511 | 3,008.60 | -0.49% | 7,953 | -9% | 72 | -9% | 6,917 | -2,422 | 7 | | IH2512 | 3,002.60 | -0.49% | 39,268 | 8% | 355 | 8% | 64,984 | 3,075 | 70 | | IH2603 | 2,995.60 | -0.56% | 8,203 | 23% | 74 | 23% | 19,929 | 1,370 | 21 | | IH2606 | 2,985.20 | -0.59% | 2,652 | 46% | 24 | 46% | 5,945 | 515 | 6 | [60] Basis and Other Information - The spot price of SSE 50 was 3,008.29 points. The current month contract (IH2511) was at a premium of 0.31 points, with a premium rate of 0.0% and an annualized premium rate of 1.9%. The next month contract (IH2512) was at a discount of 5.69 points, with a discount rate of -0.2% and an annualized discount rate of -2.3%. The first quarterly contract (IH2603) was at a discount of 12.69 points, with a discount rate of -0.4% and an annualized discount rate of -1.3%. The second quarterly contract (IH2606) was at a discount of 23.09 points, with a discount rate of -0.8% and an annualized discount rate of -1.3% [73]. Main Seats Information - The trading volume and open interest data of the main seats of each contract are detailed, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty seats, showing their trading volume, open long positions, open short positions, and their changes compared with the previous day [77][79][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit may be further reduced, the overall production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining. In the short - term, the domestic corn spot is relatively strong, but there is a potential selling pressure later. The corn starch spot is also strong due to the strength of corn, but the 01 starch on the futures market is expected to decline in the short - term [4][6][7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Futures Disk - For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2168, 2237, and 2264 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 8 and percentage drops of - 0.32%, - 0.36%, - 0.35%. Their trading volumes are 405,905, 43,153, 1,958 with volume changes of - 4.81%, - 6.73%, 47.89%, and open interests are 932,364, 322,392, 16,703 with changes of - 1.44%, 4.02%, 0.57% [2]. - For corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2473, 2552, 2607 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 5 and percentage drops of - 0.28%, - 0.31%, - 0.19%. Their trading volumes are 88,848, 889, 72 with volume changes of - 18.46%, 3.37%, 100.00%, and open interests are 219,992, 6,328, 551 with changes of 1.29%, 1.61%, 5.76% [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang is 1995 yuan, Songyuan Jiji is 2070 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2350 yuan, Shouguang is 2280 yuan, Jinzhou Port is 2210 yuan, Nantong Port is 2320 yuan, and Guangdong Port is 2370 yuan. The price in Shouguang increased by 10 yuan, while others remained unchanged. The corresponding basis is - 269, - 194, 86, 16, 42, 56, 106 [2]. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng is 2680 yuan, COFCO is 2700 yuan, Cargill is 2800 yuan, Yufeng is 2890 yuan, Jinyu Corn is 2800 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2900 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade is 2820 yuan. All prices remained unchanged, and the corresponding basis is 128, 148, 248, 338, 248, 348, 268 [2]. Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 is - 69 with a change of 1, C05 - C09 is - 27 with no change, C09 - C01 is 96 with a change of - 1 [2]. - Starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 79 with a change of 1, CS05 - CS09 is - 55 with a change of - 3, CS09 - CS01 is 134 with a change of 2 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 343 with a change of 3, CS01 - C01 is 305 with no change, CS05 - C05 is 315 with no change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment Corn - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit will be further reduced, the production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2137 yuan. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable at around 2210 yuan, and the northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is still large. The wheat price in North China has risen to around 2500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, making corn more cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. Some enterprises are building inventory in the northeast. The supply of northeast corn is low recently, and traders' hoarding sentiment is strong. The 01 corn futures contract is oscillating weakly, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2770 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also strong. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 110.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still making good profits. The 01 starch futures contract is oscillating narrowly following the corn, but the North China corn price may decline in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. It is expected that the 01 starch futures contract still has room to decline in the short - term [7]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. For example, on November 20, 2025, for the C2605 - P - 2160.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2237, and the closing price is 20.50; for the C2601 - P - 2080.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2168, and the closing price is 3.00 [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between the corn starch and corn 01 contracts [13][15][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of live pigs is stable, and the spot price is fluctuating. The supply pressure still exists, and the subsequent spot price of live pigs is expected to be weak. The futures price has also shown a downward trend, and the medium - and long - term downward pressure is obvious [1][3]. - The recent slowdown in the slaughter rhythm has supported the pig price to some extent, but due to the high inventory and large slaughter weight, the supply pressure will still be reflected in the future [1]. Group 3: Summary of Specific Contents Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country continued to fluctuate. The average price was 11.42 yuan/kg, up 0.13 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in different regions showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [1]. Futures Price - The live pig futures prices showed a downward trend. For example, LH01 was 11,440 yuan, down 120 yuan from yesterday; LH03 was 11,315 yuan, down 35 yuan from yesterday [1]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The piglet price was 209 yuan this week, the same as last week; the sow price was 1,546 yuan, also unchanged from last week [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads between different contracts showed different changes. For example, LH7 - 9 was - 800 yuan, up 5 yuan from yesterday; LH9 - 1 was 2,000 yuan, up 50 yuan from yesterday [1]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume was 171,117 heads today, an increase of 1,928 heads from yesterday [1]. Size Pig Price Spreads - The spreads between different - sized pigs showed different changes. The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs was 0.39 yuan, up 0.03 yuan from yesterday; the spread between large pigs and medium - sized pigs was 0.4 yuan, down 0.01 yuan from yesterday [1]. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see; for options, a strategy of selling wide - straddles is recommended [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of NVIDIA is expected to drive a rebound in technology stocks, and the market may rebound due to the influence of US stocks and brokerage mergers [18][23]. - The risk appetite in the bond market has recovered, and the bond market remains weakly stable, but caution is needed regarding potential short - term trading opportunities [24][25]. - For various commodities, different trends are presented. For example, protein meal prices are gradually falling due to supply pressure, while sugar prices are expected to be range - bound both internationally and domestically [28][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: NVIDIA's strong performance may drive a rebound in technology stocks. The market showed support on Wednesday, with significant sector differentiation. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads on dips [18][21][23]. - **Treasury Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, and the bond market is weakly stable. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, take profit on previous (TL - 3T) positions, and try to go long on the T - contract current - quarter to next - quarter inter - delivery spread [24][25][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is evident, and the price is gradually falling. In the US, soybean export sales are expected to be within a certain range, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be supported, while rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [28][29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating lower, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. Globally, there will be a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, international sugar prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. The strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [31][34][35]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oscillating market continues. External factors have led to short - term price fluctuations, and different oils have different supply - demand situations. The strategy is to go long on dips or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [36][37][39]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are starting to correct, and the futures price is falling. The US corn futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, while domestic corn prices in the Northeast are falling, and those in the North China are relatively strong. The strategy is to go long on dips for the outer - market December corn, short on rallies for the January corn, wait for corrections for the May and July corn, and conduct spread - narrowing operations for the January corn - starch spread [40][41][43]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure persists, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall supply pressure remains, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle strategies for options [44][45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is weak, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and quality. The strategy is to short on rallies for the January peanuts, go long on dips for the May peanuts with a stop - loss at 7800, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [46][47][48]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49][50][52]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and fruit prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and the fundamentals are relatively strong, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to recent large fluctuations [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. External factors and supply - demand situations at home and abroad affect the price. The strategy is to expect range - bound oscillations for US cotton and short - term oscillations for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The industry is affected by policies, costs, and demand. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating downward trend for single - side trading, go long on the coil - to - rebar spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [62][63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are correcting from high levels, and the futures market is weakly operating. After short - term replenishment, the market sentiment has changed. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating short - term trend without chasing short positions, consider going long on dips near previous lows in the medium - term, continue to hold the coking coal 1/5 reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [64][65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish approach is recommended. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. The strategy is to expect a high - level bearish trend for single - side trading, enter a 1/5 inter - delivery high - level reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a cost - supported range. Different ferroalloys have different supply - demand and cost situations. The strategy is to expect bottom - oscillating trends for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69][70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: NVIDIA boosts market sentiment, but the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold and silver prices. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The strategy is to hold long positions cautiously near the support level of the 18th, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [72][74][76]. - **Copper**: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to go long on dips, pay attention to the 85000 yuan/ton support level, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [76][77][80]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized, and the price is weakly operating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and long - term contracts. The strategy is to expect a short - term weak trend until the warehouse receipts are circulated, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas economic data are unexpectedly absent, and Shanghai aluminum moves with the sector. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market, and go long on Shanghai aluminum and short on LME aluminum to narrow the spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [83][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy moves with the aluminum price. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, wait for the market sentiment to digest, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Zinc**: It shows a wide - range oscillation. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to continue to hold profitable long positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][88][90]. - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to close profitable short positions and stay on the sidelines, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [90][91][94]. - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The oversupply of deliverable products and the macro - environment affect the price. The strategy is to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [94][95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The industry is affected by factors such as investment plans and carbon taxes. The strategy is to short on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96][97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term partial profits can be realized, and new strategies can involve going long on dips near the support level. The price is affected by production capacity and market demand. [98]

锌：关注宏观指引 锌价或宽幅震荡 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，近期内外比价持续低位，周内进口锌精矿亏损维持在2000元/金属吨左右；冶炼厂持续积极采购国产锌矿，国内锌精矿偏紧未改，多地加工费继续走低。 SMM Zn50国产周度TC均价下调50元/金属吨至2600元/金属吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon, the short - term strategy is to wait and see, and consider short - selling on rallies if the spot price weakens. For industrial silicon, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - This week, the polysilicon market is in a tight - balance state, but there is pressure on prices due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand. The industrial silicon market may return to a supply - surplus pattern if the rumored organic silicon production cut is implemented; otherwise, it remains in a tight - balance state. The current valuation of industrial silicon is relatively high, and the market is weak [4][6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Polysilicon - In November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared to October, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 118,000 tons. The polysilicon production in November is 115,000 - 120,000 tons, showing a tight - balance situation. There are pressures in the silicon wafer and battery markets, and the polysilicon spot price also faces downward pressure. The upcoming Chengdu PV Conference may lead to a large number of orders, and the spot transaction price may guide the futures price. The market rumor about the establishment of a platform company also affects the market. It is advisable to wait and see this week. If the polysilicon spot price weakens, short - selling on rallies can be considered [4]. - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see, waiting for large - scale spot transactions and the establishment of the platform company; no arbitrage strategy; take profit on selling put options [5]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the weekly production of DMC increased by 1.67% to 48,700 tons, the weekly polysilicon production decreased by 2.54% to 28,400 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.4 percentage points to 59.8%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.5 percentage points to 60.6%. The weekly industrial silicon production was 90,400 tons, a decrease of 0.57% compared to last week, and the total number of open furnaces remained unchanged at 264. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 million tons to 54.6 million tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.06 million tons to 17.54 million tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.13 million tons to 23.53 million tons [6][27][28]. - If the rumored 30% production cut in the organic silicon industry is implemented, the demand for industrial silicon will decrease by 3 million tons, and the market will return to a supply - surplus pattern. Otherwise, it remains in a tight - balance state. The current valuation of industrial silicon is relatively high, and the market is weak. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the price range reference of (8500, 9500) [6]. - Strategy: Fluctuate within a range, short - selling on rallies; no option and arbitrage strategies [7][8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking Market Conditions - This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 9020 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [12]. Downstream Demand - The weekly production of DMC increased, the polysilicon production decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy increased. The weekly DMC production was 48,700 tons, a 1.67% increase; the weekly polysilicon production was 28,400 tons, a 2.54% decrease; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase; and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 60.6%, a 1.5 - percentage - point increase [15]. Production - This week, the industrial silicon production decreased. The weekly production was 90,400 tons, a 0.57% decrease. The total number of open furnaces was 264, remaining unchanged. The number of open furnaces in Sichuan decreased by 1, in Inner Mongolia increased by 1, in Gansu increased by 2, in Fujian decreased by 1, and in the Northeast decreased by 1. The operating rate of silicon plants in the Northwest has reached a high level, with limited room for further production increase. Silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan may have a small amount of furnace shutdown space, and it is expected that the industrial silicon production will continue to decrease next week [27]. Inventory - The factory inventory slightly increased, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream raw material inventory slightly decreased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 54.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 17.54 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons; and the downstream raw material inventory was 23.53 million tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons [28]. Product Prices - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week. The prices of DMC and terminal products in the organic silicon industry increased. The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates slightly increased. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy slightly increased, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy strengthened. The electricity price in the Southwest region increased, and the price of petroleum coke also increased [33][38][44][48][51]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking Price - This week, the price of N - type re - feedstock in polysilicon strengthened. The prices of some types of silicon wafers and batteries weakened. The prices of some components increased slightly [56][59][62]. Component Data - Recently, component enterprises have gradually increased component quotes. Some component enterprises have reduced production this month, but terminal demand provides some support, and the reduction in component production is small. It is expected that the component production in November will be 46GW. The inventory of photovoltaic components in Europe has increased to 35.4GW, and the inventory of domestic photovoltaic manufacturers is 30.6GW, at a moderately low level [74]. Battery Data - The export demand for batteries is good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 5.81GW, at a moderately low level. In November, the component production schedule has decreased, and the battery production schedule has also been adjusted down to 54GW [75]. Silicon Wafer Data - This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises decreased, and the weekly production of silicon wafers decreased to 13.12GW. Currently, the silicon wafer sector produces according to demand, and the silicon wafer inventory is 18.42GW. The silicon wafer production schedule in November is 59GW, a decrease of 1GW compared to October [81]. Polysilicon Data - This week, the polysilicon production slightly decreased, and the factory inventory slightly increased to 267,000 tons. In November, Tongwei Co., Ltd. plans to gradually shut down production in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total shutdown scale of 370,000 tons/year. The polysilicon production will decrease by 20,000 - 25,000 tons compared to October, and may further decrease by 10,000 tons in December compared to November. Newly - opened capacities of Asian Silicon Industry, Orient Hope, and Daquan Energy are ramping up this month, and the newly - opened capacity of Xinte Energy's Zhunbei Base will increase production by 3000 - 5000 tons. GCL Technology has a certain production - cut plan, with a reduction of about 4000 tons. The polysilicon production in November will decrease by about 20,000 tons compared to October [89].