Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 12, 2025 [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 86,750, LME price is 10,788, with a ratio of 8.02; March domestic price is 86,720, LME price is 10,809, ratio 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.08, profit is - 502.58, and spot export profit is 118.66 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 22,660, LME price is 3,188, ratio 7.11; March domestic price is 22,705, LME price is 3,071, ratio 5.68. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.50, profit is - 4438.29 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 21,620, LME price is 2,853, ratio 7.58; March domestic price is 21,665, LME price is 2,877, ratio 7.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.33, profit is - 2136.61 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 122,950, LME price is 14,874, ratio 8.27. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.18, profit is - 1805.20 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 17,300, LME price is 2,030, ratio 8.52; March domestic price is 17,450, LME price is 2,051, ratio 11.06. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.72, profit is - 399.90 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month and spot - month, March and spot - month, April and spot - month, May and spot - month are 150, 240, 210, 210 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 534, 967, 1408, 1850 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 60, 90, 115, 110, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 460, 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are - 35, 15, 20, 30, and the theoretical spreads are 219, 340, 460, 580 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 35, 45, 55, 40, and the theoretical spreads are 212, 320, 428, 536 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 220, 370, 580, 800 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 980, and the theoretical spread is 5957 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract and spot, next - month contract and spot are - 235, - 85, and the theoretical spreads are 93, 594 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 45, 15, and the theoretical spreads are 85, 217 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 105, 140, and the theoretical spreads are 103, 218 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.82, 4.00, 4.97, 0.95, 1.24, 0.77, and in London (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.77, 5.25, 0.94, 1.39, 0.67 [5].

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/12 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/05 | 2220 | 2281 | 2046 | 2213 | 2241 | 2100 | | 2025/11/06 | 2217 | 2279 | 2038 | 2206 | 2233 | 2099 | | 2025/11/07 | 2216 | 2277 | 2038 | 2206 | 2225 | 2099 | | 2025/11/10 | 2209 | 2277 | 2034 | 2206 | 2222 | 2096 | | 2025/11/11 | 2208 | 2278 | 2037 | 2208 | 2220 | 2097 | | 环比 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 823.0 3.0 39.0 103.0 -32.0 25省终端可用天数 25.8 -0.4 5.9 4.9 8.2 秦皇岛5000 731.0 3.0 40.0 101.0 -24.0 25省终端供煤 527.7 1.2 -80.9 -112.4 -95.2 广州港5500 865.0 0.0 50.0 90.0 -45.0 北方港库存 2256.0 2.0 58.0 -44.0 -241.6 鄂尔多斯5500 595.0 0.0 35.0 110.0 -35.0 北方锚地船舶 142.0 14.0 69.0 32.0 102.0 大同5500 645.0 0.0 35.0 110.0 -65.0 北方港调入量 175.6 2.6 -1.1 47.9 -8.3 榆林6000 712.0 0.0 10.0 70.0 -112.0 北方港吞吐量 166.9 5.1 38.1 57.2 -10.9 榆林6200 740.0 0.0 10.0 70.0 -112.0 CBCFI海运指数 1150.8 13.6 71.6 18 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: November 12, 2025 [3] Key Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: - BR主力合约(12)价格为10240元，日度变化-35元，周度变化5元 [4] - 持仓量为82041，日度变化-1657，周度变化53203 [4] - 成交量为89151，日度变化-25103，周度变化5671 [4] - 仓单数量为12610，日度变化310，周度变化4050 [4] - 虚实比为32.53，日度变化-1，周度变化16 [4] - **Basis and Spread**: - 顺丁基差为160，日度变化135 [4] - 丁苯基差为560，日度变化85 [4] - 12 - 01为65，日度变化-5，周度变化-25 [4] - 01 - 02为5，日度变化10，周度变化-5 [4] - RU - BR为4855，日度变化20，周度变化240 [4] - NR - BR为1885，日度变化-5，周度变化185 [4] - **Spot and Profit**: - 山东市场价为10400元，日度变化100元，周度变化200元 [4] - 传化市场价为10250元，日度变化50元，周度变化100元 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价为10200元，日度变化0元，周度变化0元 [4] - CFR东北亚为1400美元，日度变化-50美元，周度变化-50美元 [4] - CFR东南亚为1685美元，日度变化-15美元，周度变化-15美元 [4] - 现货加工利润为1086元，日度变化24元，周度变化149元 [4] - 进口利润为-1366元，日度变化507元，周度变化620元 [4] - 出口利润为2297元，日度变化-198元，周度变化-298元 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Price and Profit**: - 山东市场价为6975元，日度变化75元，周度变化50元 [4] - 江苏市场价为6850元，日度变化0元，周度变化100元 [4] - 扬子出厂价为6900元，日度变化0元，周度变化0元 [4] - CFR中国为790美元，日度变化0美元，周度变化-60美元 [4] - 乙烯裂解利润：数据部分为N/A [4] - 碳四抽提利润：数据部分为N/A [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润为-1824元，日度变化0元，周度变化170元 [4] - 进口利润为346元，日度变化2元 [4] - 出口利润为-914元，日度变化-144元，周度变化-1663元 [4] - 丁苯生产利润为1175元，日度变化0元，周度变化13元 [4] - ABS生产利润：数据部分为N/A [4] - SBS生产利润为-90元，日度变化0元，周度变化-285元 [4] Data Sources - Mysteel, Wind [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Ore**: Newman powder price is 772, unchanged daily and down 3 weekly; PB powder is 775, unchanged daily and down 7 weekly; Mac powder is 768, down 4 daily and 11 weekly; Jinbuba is 726, unchanged daily and down 8 weekly; mainstream mixed powder is 725, down 3 daily and 20 weekly; super special powder is 670, down 4 daily and 17 weekly; Carra powder is 876, down 2 daily and 18 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 762, unchanged daily and down 7 weekly; KUMBA powder is 834, unchanged daily and down 7 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore is 814, down 2 daily and 8 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 775, down 2 daily and 9 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 780, down 2 daily and 9 weekly [1]. - **Other Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 871, down 5 daily and 19 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 715, unchanged daily and down 8 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 605, down 4 daily and 17 weekly; Atlas powder is 720, down 3 daily and 20 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is 1002, unchanged daily and down 19 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is 763.0, down 2.0 daily and 12.5 weekly; i2605 is 737.0, down 5.0 daily and 19.0 weekly; i2609 is 717.0, down 5.0 daily and 18.5 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 99.03, up 0.83 daily and down 2.90 weekly; FE05 is 96.85, up 0.76 daily and down 2.73 weekly; FE09 is 94.85, up 0.73 daily and down 2.65 weekly [1]. Other Data - **Import Profits**: Newman powder is -13.64; PB powder is -9.81; Mac powder is 14.98; Jinbuba is 5.03; mainstream mixed powder is -1.31; super special powder is -13.05; Carra powder is -2.97; Brazilian mixed ore is 7.09; Roy Hill powder is 20.22 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads and Basis/Spreads**: For DCE contracts, i2601's monthly spread is -46.0, up 2.0 daily and 3.9 weekly; i2605's is 26.0, up 5.0 daily and 10.4 weekly; i2609's is 20.0, up 5.0 daily and 9.9 weekly. For SGX contracts, FE01's is -4.18, down 1.9 daily and up 5.4 weekly; FE05's is 2.18, down 3.8 daily and up 3.0 weekly; FE09's is 2.00, down 5.6 daily and up 2.4 weekly [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic civil gas may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with an overall expectation of a peak season. The profit contraction of PDH may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high with a possible decline. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the United States [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4387 (+10), in Shandong was 4400 (+20), and in South China was 4490 (+35). The price of etherified C4 was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis changing by 17 (-37) daily, and the December - January spread was 85 (-5). FEI was 493 (-1.75) and CP was 468 (+0) US dollars per ton [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the December - January spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 lots (+250). The cheapest deliverable was the civil gas in East China at 4374; in Shandong it was 4380 (+80), in East China it was 4374 (+95), and in South China it was 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong etherified C4 was 4500 (+80). The external market price declined; the domestic - foreign spread strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 137 (+4), PG - FEI reaching 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window remained open, with the latest at -73 (-6) [1]. Industry Profit and Operation - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH dropped significantly (some plants were shut down). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The production gross profit of MTBE changed little, and the export profit fluctuated. Domestic production decreased, the factory inventory was basically flat; the arrival was limited, the terminal sales improved, and the port inventory decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.45% (+1.6), as Lihuayi Weiyuan started to full - load operation, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) changed from 172 on 10/10 to -2970 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2964 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) changed from 72 on 10/10 to -3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3184 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) changed from 62 on 10/10 to -3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3244 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread changed from 28 on 10/10 to 1 on 11/11, with a daily change of 3 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread changed from 6 on 10/10 to -39 on 11/11, with a daily change of 7 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread changed from -4 on 10/10 to -14 on 11/11, with a daily change of 3 [3]. 2. BU Main Contract - The BU main contract (01) price changed from 3328 on 10/10 to 3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of 14 [3]. - The trading volume changed from 323321 on 10/10 to 314162 on 11/11, with a daily change of -8556 [3]. - The open interest changed from 322594 on 10/10 to 339671 on 11/11, with a daily change of -11390 [3]. - The warehouse receipts remained at 4690 from 11/5 to 11/11 [3]. 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price changed from 62.7 on 10/10 to 64.1 on 11/11, with a daily change of 0.4 [3]. - Jingbo's spot price changed from 3540 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2990 [3]. - Hongrun's spot price changed from 3420 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2950 [3]. - Zhenjiang Warehouse's spot price changed from 3400 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3170 [3]. - Foshan Warehouse's spot price changed from 3390 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3230 [3]. 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit changed from 492 on 10/10 to 68 on 11/11, with a daily change of -28 [3]. - The comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries changed from 910 on 10/10 to -757 on 11/11, with a daily change of -1450 [3].

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1087 1113 1087 1050 970 1053 1184 1261 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 11合约 01合约 05合约 09合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(11/11） 昨日(11/10） 一周前(11/4） 一月前(10/13） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 10, 2025, was 5468.00 [4] - The closing prices on November 7, 6, 5, and 4, 2025, were 5394.00, 5368.00, 5360.00, and 5288.00 respectively [4] - The corresponding US - dollar prices were 661.50, 658.32, 657.08, and 648.25 respectively [4] - The daily price changes were 1.37189%, 0.48435%, 0.14925%, 1.36157%, and - 0.33924% respectively [4] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on November 10, 2025, was 57, compared to 106, 132, 140, and 212 on previous days [4] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis on November 10, 2025, was 57, compared to 131, 157, 155, and 227 on previous days [4] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - Calculated with 13% VAT, the port US - dollar price of Canadian Golden Lion pulp (CFR) was 780, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 6200 and an import profit of - 145.57 [5] - The port US - dollar price of Canadian Lion pulp (CFR) was 730, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 5500 and an import profit of - 493.29 [5] - The port US - dollar price of Chilean Yinxing pulp (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit) was 680, with a Shandong - area RMB price of 5525 and an import profit of - 16.01 [5] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From November 4 to 10, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural - color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [5] - The Shandong - area average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural - color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [5] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin Information - From November 5 to 10, 2025, the cultural - paper indices (double - offset and double - copper) and the packaging - paper index (white - card) and the living - paper index remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350, and 841 respectively [5] - The profit - margin changes from November 5 to 10, 2025, were - 0.5075 for double - offset paper, - 0.4193 for double - copper paper, - 0.3055 for white - card paper, and - 1.3179 for living paper [5] Group 5: Pulp Price Difference Information - The price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural - color pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste - paper pulp on November 10, 2025, were 1185.00, 125, 1725, and 3949 respectively [5] - The corresponding price differences on previous days are also provided in the report [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on November 11, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block is 5150, with no daily or weekly change; the factory - price converted to the futures market is 5450. The main contract price is 5588, up 62 from the previous day and week [2]. - The latest price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy export (in US dollars) is 1045, down 10 from last week [2]. - For silicon - manganese alloy, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon - manganese alloy at the production area is 5620, down 30 from last week; the factory - price converted to the futures market is 5920. The main contract price is 5820, up 60 from the previous day and 26 from last week [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (capacity ratio 95%), and monthly capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5]. - The production data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly production and related procurement data from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7]. Demand - The demand data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the demand volume in China (according to Ganglian's caliber), and the export volume of silicon - manganese alloy in China [5][8]. - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy are also shown, such as the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [5]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as inventory - related data such as warehouse receipts and available days [6]. - The inventory data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of blue charcoal, and production costs and profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [6]. - The cost - profit - related data of silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including the price of raw materials such as chemical coke and manganese ore, and the profits in different regions [7][8].