Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content; it mainly contains various data on asphalt. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - **Contract Prices**: Prices of multiple asphalt futures contracts (BU10, BU11, etc.) decreased from September 18 to October 17. For example, the BU10 contract dropped from 3436 to 3156, and the BU11 contract decreased from 3427 to 3234 [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume increased by 43,198 to 312,542, while the open interest increased by 4,924 to 358,277 from October 16 to October 17 [4]. Spot Market Data - **Market Prices**: Market prices of asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, etc.) generally declined. For instance, the Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3380, and the Northeast market price dropped from 3850 to 3690 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China) showed an upward trend. For example, the Shandong basis (+80) increased from 143 to 285, and the East China basis rose from 43 to 185 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - **Basis**: The basis of different regions and contracts increased significantly. For example, the 10 - 11 spread decreased from 168 to -78, and the 10 - 12 spread decreased from 248 to -10 [4]. - **Calendar Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed, with some showing significant decreases [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - **Crack Spread and Profit**: The asphalt Brent crack spread increased from -8 to 205, and the asphalt MRE profit increased from -74 to 120. The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries and MRE - type refineries also increased [4]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit from South Korea to East China decreased from -140 to -278, and the import profit from Singapore to South China decreased from -944 to -991 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 20, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 20, 2025, the domestic spot price was 84775, the LME spot price was 10506, and the spot price ratio was 8.10; the domestic three - month price was 84350, the LME three - month price was 10523, and the three - month price ratio was 8.05 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21860, the LME spot price was 3084, and the spot price ratio was 7.09; the domestic three - month price was 21870, the LME three - month price was 2948, and the three - month price ratio was 5.78 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20950, the LME spot price was 2791, and the spot price ratio was 7.50; the domestic three - month price was 20920, the LME three - month price was 2778, and the three - month price ratio was 7.55 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123700, the LME spot price was 14983, and the spot price ratio was 8.26. The profit from spot import was - 1658.10 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16825, the LME spot price was 1930, and the spot price ratio was 8.76; the domestic three - month price was 17090, the LME three - month price was 1972, and the three - month price ratio was 11.10 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 660, - 700, - 800, and - 880 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 527, 953, 1387, and 1821 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 110, - 70, - 35, and 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 331, 450, and 569 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 65, - 55, - 50, and - 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, and 567 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 10, - 10, - 10, and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 60, 240, 490, and 780 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 390, and the theoretical spread was 5818 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 300 and - 360 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 546 and 918 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 80 and - 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 191 and 307 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 275 and 265 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217 and 330 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 20, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.86, 4.03, 4.94, 0.96, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively; for London (triple - continuous), they were 3.60, 3.82, 5.38, 0.94, 1.41, and 0.67 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PG's main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news disturbances. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped sharply. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was at 4345 (-39), and South China was at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. The external market prices tumbled; the FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), and the CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). The profit of PDH to propylene decreased. Inventory pressure was high, and short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand, and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis turned negative after a sharp drop, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - On 2025/10/17 compared with the previous day, the daily changes were as follows: South China LPG was -40, East China LPG was -24, Shandong LPG was -80, propane CFR South China was -5, propane CIF Japan was -13, CP forecast contract price was -5, Shandong ether - after carbon four was -40, Shandong alkylated oil was -30, and the main basis was -21. On Friday, civil gas prices dropped, with East China at 4345 (-24), Shandong at 4200 (-80), and South China at 4460 (-40). Ether - after carbon four was at 4420 (-40). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -20 (-32), and the November - December spread was 137 (+7). FEI and CP dropped to 469 (-5) and 447 (-5) dollars/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was -20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250), East China at 4345 (-39), and South China at 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warrants. External prices dropped significantly; FEI monthly spread was -10 USD (+5), CP monthly spread was -4 USD (+5). The domestic - foreign price differences changed: PG - CP reached 132 (+27), PG - FEI reached 112 (+14), FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. CP propane and butane arrival discounts in South China increased significantly to 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped significantly, US Gulf - Japan was 108 (-18), Middle East - Far East was 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open at -71 (-12). PDH to propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, short - term supply pressure was large, but there was support from chemical demand and the expectation of combustion demand was warming up. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct), with the second phase of Zhongjing resuming, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong on short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Despite large spot supply pressure and a sharp drop in the PG basis turning negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 736.0 0.0 25.0 51.0 -119.0 25省终端可用天数 24.6 1.0 4.6 3.6 7.0 秦皇岛5000 646.0 0.0 26.0 52.0 -114.0 25省终端供煤 533.5 0.4 -75.0 -106.5 -89.3 广州港5500 780.0 0.0 15.0 25.0 -130.0 北方港库存 2197.0 3.0 -166.0 167.0 -99.9 鄂尔多斯5500 520.0 10.0 35.0 55.0 -110.0 北方锚地船舶 100.0 4.0 -19.0 5.0 22.0 大同5500 570.0 10.0 35.0 50.0 -140.0 北方港调入量 148.6 6.6 28.2 -4.5 -20.5 榆林6000 652.0 0.0 10.0 50.0 -173.0 北方港吞吐量 164.8 -11.4 40.5 -7.3 18.9 榆林6200 680.0 0.0 10.0 50.0 -173.0 CBCFI海运指数 948.3 24.4 249.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on various indicators of synthetic rubber, including prices, positions, trading volumes, basis, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Indicators**: On October 17, the closing price of the main contract was 10,925, a daily decrease of 210 and a weekly increase of 5; the position volume was 17,001, a daily decrease of 1,410 and a weekly decrease of 15,012; the trading volume was 57,027, a daily decrease of 19,877 and a weekly decrease of 56,219; the warrant quantity was 8,750, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200; the long - short ratio was 9.71, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 9 [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was 125, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 105; the butadiene basis (two - oil) was 275, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 5; the 10 - 11 spread was 290, a daily increase of 345 and a weekly increase of 380; the 11 - 12 spread was 100, a daily increase of 15 [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100; the Chuanhua market price was 10,900, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 20; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,500, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 53, a daily increase of 26 and a weekly decrease of 177; the on - disk processing profit was - 73, a daily decrease of 185 and a weekly decrease of 72; the import profit was - 79,618, a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 3; the export profit was 424, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 75 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 8,625, a daily decrease of 25; the Jiangsu market price was 8,550, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, with no daily or weekly change; CFR China was 1,010, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 124, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 170; the import profit was 269, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 391; the export profit was - 892, a daily decrease of 72 and a weekly decrease of 111 [3]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene rubber production profit was - 73, a daily decrease of 182 and a weekly decrease of 72; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 750, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly decrease of 138; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 760, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 75 [3]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 2,306, a daily increase of 1,205 and a weekly increase of 14,767; NR - BR was - 4,776, a daily increase of 1,320 and a weekly increase of 15,197; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,500, a daily decrease of 130 and a weekly increase of 200; 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 50 [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price difference was 300, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150; the styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 920, a daily increase of 20 and no weekly change [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to the concentrated listing of new - season corn, but may rebound in the long - term if farmers resist selling at low prices. Starch prices are likely to decline in the short - term with raw material price drops and inventory accumulation, but may be supported by increased downstream consumption in the long - term. Sugar prices face pressure both internationally and domestically. Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase, with limited downside if no major macro - risks occur. Egg prices are expected to be weak in the short - term but may be supported by accelerated chicken culling. Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues. Pig prices may have short - term rebounds but face medium - term supply pressure [1][2][3][4][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, corn prices in different regions remained stable, with the basis dropping by 6 and import profit increasing by 1. Starch basis increased by 2 [1]. - **Analysis**: New - season corn is on the market, and short - term prices are weak due to supply. Long - term prices depend on the game between farmers and traders. Starch price adjustment is limited by high production costs, and short - term prices are expected to decline with inventory accumulation, while long - term prices depend on downstream consumption [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, sugar spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, the basis dropped by 4, and the number of warrants decreased by 20 [3]. - **Analysis**: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazilian production has uncertainties. Domestic sugar prices follow the international market, with import sugar arrivals and lower processing sugar quotes putting pressure on the market [3]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 15 [14]. - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are in a consolidation phase. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low can be seen as the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, egg prices in major production areas increased, with the largest increase of 0.11 in some regions, and the basis increased by 61 [8]. - **Analysis**: Egg prices dropped during the holiday, and are expected to be weak in the short - term due to high supply and seasonal demand decline. Accelerated chicken culling may support prices [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7500, and the 1 - month basis decreased by 115 [10][11]. - **Analysis**: New - season apples in the western region are about to be harvested, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. The national production is expected to be similar to last year, with some quality issues, and the average opening price is above 3.5 yuan per catty [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From October 13 - 17, pig prices in major production areas increased slightly, with the largest increase of 0.10 in some regions, and the basis increased by 335 [11]. - **Analysis**: Pig prices may have short - term rebounds due to low prices, but face medium - term supply pressure. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices declined. The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Gaza region led to the withdrawal of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium. Trump reignited the trade war, worsening the macro - sentiment, and Brent crude fell to $62 per barrel with a daily decline of over 4%. Fundamentally, crude oil supply continued to be released. OPEC confirmed a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November and was expected to do the same in December. Since September, OPEC+ net crude oil exports increased significantly, and Russian crude oil exports also rose. Global floating storage of crude oil increased substantially. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased, and production rose while the number of drilling rigs decreased. Global refinery profits declined with the fall of diesel cracking. Next week, the Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume, restoring global gasoline supply. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. In the baseline scenario, there will be an oversupply of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From October 10 to 16, 2025, WTI crude oil price dropped from $58.90 to $57.46, a decrease of $0.81; Brent crude oil price decreased from $62.73 to $61.06, a decline of $0.85; Oman crude oil price decreased from $62.55 to $62.10 (data on October 16 is missing); SC crude oil price increased by $0.10; domestic gasoline price dropped by $50, and domestic diesel price decreased by $28. Other related products also showed different price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Affected by the weakening of Brent crude oil and firm freight rates, the price of Russian Urals crude oil fell below the EU price cap of $47.60 per barrel for the first time. Deutsche Bank believes that the UK economy is losing momentum. The US Treasury Secretary hopes that Japan will stop importing Russian energy. Indian refiners expect a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. Trump said that Modi promised that India would stop buying Russian oil, but it would be a process [3][4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending October 10, US crude oil exports increased by 876,000 barrels per day to 4.466 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 700 barrels to 13.636 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.5 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.8%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 400,000 barrels to 408 million barrels, a growth rate of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 878,000 barrels per day to 5.255 million barrels per day. US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels [4] 3.4 Weekly View - Due to the cease - fire in the Gaza region and the trade war, oil prices declined. Crude oil supply continued to increase, and OPEC planned to increase production. Global floating storage of crude oil increased, and refinery profits declined. The Dangote refinery in West Africa is expected to resume next week. Considering the sanctions on Iran and Russia, the fourth - quarter refinery start - up rate is slightly lowered. There is an oversupply of crude oil, and the absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]

Report Title - The report is titled "Yongan Basis Morning Report" [1] Core Data Summary Macro - As of October 16, 2025, for IF, the spot price converted to futures was 4618 with a change of 12, the basis was 28, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.70; for IH, the spot price converted to futures was 3019 with a change of 18, the basis was 0, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.04; for IC, the spot price converted to futures was 7232 with a change of -62, the basis was 170, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.98 [2] Black - On October 16, 2025, in Shanghai and Beijing, the spot price converted to futures for rebar was 3190 with no change, the basis was 141, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviations were 0.72 and 0.08 respectively; for hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the spot price converted to futures was 3280 with no change, the basis was 61, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.84; for ore in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 824 with a change of 2, the basis was 51, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.42; for coke in Tianjin Port, the spot price converted to futures was 1602 with no change, the basis was -70, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.50; for coking coal with port warehouse receipts, the spot price converted to futures was 1516 with a change of -3, the basis was 330, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.51; for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port, the spot price converted to futures was 736 with a change of 8, the basis was -65, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.29; for glass at low - price in Shahe, the spot price converted to futures was 1164 with a change of 14, the basis was 17, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.19; for glass at low - price in Hubei, the spot price converted to futures was 1110 with no change, the basis was -37, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.01; for ferrosilicon in Yinchuan, the spot price converted to futures was 5580 with no change, the basis was -46, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.44; for silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, the spot price converted to futures was 6050 with a change of -30, the basis was 226, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.83 [3] Energy and Chemicals - On October 16, 2025, for methanol at the port, the spot price converted to futures was 2324 with no change, the basis was 5, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.27; in Henan, the spot price converted to futures was 2380 with a change of -10, the basis was 61, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.27; in Lunan, the spot price converted to futures was 2515 with a change of -10, the basis was 196, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.48; in Hebei, the spot price converted to futures was 2650 with a change of -10, the basis was 331, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.81; for PTA in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 4371 with a change of 34, the basis was -85, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.88; for PP in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 6528 with a change of -12, the basis was -90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.70; for LLDPE in North China, the spot price converted to futures was 6880 with no change, the basis was -49, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.16; for high - end PVC, the spot price converted to futures was 4575 with a change of -5, the basis was -90, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.66; for low - end PVC, the spot price converted to futures was 4475 with a change of -5, the basis was -190, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.37; for asphalt in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 3550 with no change, the basis was 271, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.52; in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 3410 with a change of -50, the basis was 211, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.54; in South China, the spot price converted to futures was 3500 with no change, the basis was 221, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.58; for ethylene glycol in the domestic market, the spot price converted to futures was 4153 with a change of 32, the basis was 64, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.54; for soda ash, the spot price converted to futures was 1140 with no change, the basis was -95, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.71; for pulp in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 4965 with a change of -10, the basis was 109, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.95; for staple fiber in East China, the spot price converted to futures was 6115 with a change of 10, the basis was 23, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 0.35; for urea, the spot price converted to futures was 1490 with no change, the basis was -114, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.90; for natural rubber in Shanghai, the spot price converted to futures was 14560 with no change, the basis was -340, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.70; for whole latex natural rubber, the spot price converted to futures was 13700 with a change of 5, the basis was -1200, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.62; for 20 - number rubber in Qingdao, the spot price converted to futures was 1825 with no change, the basis was 779, the corresponding contract was 2512, and the basis deviation was 1.00; for styrene, the spot price converted to futures was 6605 with a change of 70, the basis was 5, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.90 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - As of October 16, 2025, for copper, the spot price converted to futures was 85180 with a change of -70, the basis was 70, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.27; for international copper, the spot price converted to futures was 75495 with a change of -5, the basis was -35, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.73; for aluminum, the spot price converted to futures was 20950 with a change of 30, the basis was 0, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.29; for zinc, the spot price converted to futures was 21920 with a change of -90, the basis was -40, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.60; for lead, the spot price converted to futures was 16950 with a change of 50, the basis was -210, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.40; for nickel, the spot price converted to futures was 121350 with a change of -100, the basis was 400, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was 0.78; for tin, the spot price converted to futures was 281200 with a change of -500, the basis was -150, the corresponding contract was provided by a third - party, and the basis deviation was -0.16 [4] Agricultural Products - On October 16, 2025, for 43% soybean meal in Jiangsu, the spot price converted to futures was 2900 with no change, the basis was -7, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.03; for first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu, the spot price converted to futures was 8450 with a change of -10, the basis was 194, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.35; for 36% rapeseed meal with the average price in Guangdong, the spot price converted to futures was 2500 with a change of 10, the basis was 136, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.88; for rapeseed oil with the market average price, the spot price converted to futures was 10407 with a change of -50, the basis was 472, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.99; for 24° palm oil in Guangzhou, the spot price converted to futures was 9190 with a change of -20, the basis was -122, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.97; for cotton nationwide, the spot price converted to futures was 14420 with a change of 20, the basis was 1100, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.67; for white sugar in Guangxi, the spot price converted to futures was 5790 with no change, the basis was 382, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.48; in Yunnan, the spot price converted to futures was 5860 with a change of -10, the basis was 452, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was 0.69; for fresh eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the spot price converted to futures was 2890 with a change of 110, the basis was 72, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.12; in Dalian, Liaoning, the spot price converted to futures was 2820 with a change of 110, the basis was 2, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.22; in Dezhou, Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 2750 with a change of 150, the basis was -68, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.34; in Shangqiu, Henan, the spot price converted to futures was 2850 with a change of 150, the basis was 32, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was -0.36; for soybeans in Bei'an, the spot price converted to futures was 4040 with no change, the basis was 22, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.58; in Jiamusi, the spot price converted to futures was 4100 with no change, the basis was 82, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.20; for corn in Changchun, the spot price converted to futures was 2240 with no change, the basis was 129, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.58; in Weifang, the spot price converted to futures was 2360 with no change, the basis was 249, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.55; for starch in Changchun, the spot price converted to futures was 2580 with no change, the basis was 174, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.70; in Weifang, the spot price converted to futures was 2605 with no change, the basis was 209, the corresponding contract was 2511, and the basis deviation was 0.82; for live pigs in Kaifeng, Henan, the spot price converted to futures was 11070 with a change of 50, the basis was -835, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.93; for red dates in Hebei, the spot price converted to futures was 9500 with no change, the basis was -1860, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.91; for apples in Shandong, the spot price converted to futures was 7400 with no change, the basis was -1110, the corresponding contract was 2601, and the basis deviation was -0.66 [5] Other Explanations - Futures prices are the prices of the main contracts. For varieties with night trading, they are the night - trading closing prices; for varieties without night trading, they are the afternoon closing prices of the previous trading day; for non - ferrous metals, they are the noon closing prices of the previous trading day [5] - The deviation degree represents the degree of the basis deviating from the historical 500 trading days (about two years). It is between -1 and 1. 0 means it is at the historical average level. The closer it is to 1, the higher it is than the average; the closer it is to -1, the lower it is than the average. If the number of historical valid data is less than 500, all historical data are used [6] - In the spread, the spot area selects the first area of each variety [6] - Since the basis of thermal coal has no reference value, no data is shown [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving factors are not favorable, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream major producers and coal chemical industry are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Outer - market prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production is decreasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is high [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream major producers and mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 700, and export is good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. European and American prices are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, raw material and finished product inventory are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is high, supply pressure can be alleviated to neutral [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity implementation and export sustainability. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is good, semi - coke cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent caustic soda export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' spot and relevant indicators changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2228 to 2305, and the import profit remained unchanged at 325 [2]. - **Viewpoint**: The trading logic focuses on the pressure transfer from ports to the inland. Inland has potential demand, but port reverse flow impacts inland valuation. Xingxing's operation situation and inventory accumulation also affect the market. Import variables such as Indian purchases from Iran and unplanned maintenance should be noted [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 785. The prices of various polyethylene products in different regions changed. For example, the North China LL price decreased from 6980 to 6880, and the import profit changed from 14 to - 84 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Inventory is neutral overall. Attention should be paid to factors such as LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6450 to 6200, and other prices and indicators also changed. For example, the export profit increased from - 33 to - 16 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. Valuation indicators are in a certain state. Future supply and demand are affected by factors such as exports and PDH device maintenance [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From October 10 to 16, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained stable at 2400 in some days, and other prices and indicators had minor changes. For example, the export profit decreased from 408 to 424 [7]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity implementation, exports, coal prices, and terminal orders in Q4 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the near - month spread weakened, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased and was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. ARA's residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low during the same period. EIA's residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, and Fujeirah slightly increased its inventory and was at a low level compared to the same period. The Middle East's high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.17, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 3.55, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 0.38. The LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged [1]. - **Singapore**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.22, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.98, and Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 1.04. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 1.62, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 1.67, the 380 basis increased by 0.25, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 0.8, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.6 [2]. Domestic FU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, FU 01 increased by 11, FU 05 increased by 5, FU 09 increased by 8, FU 01 - 05 increased by 6, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 3 [2]. Domestic LU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 1, LU 05 increased by 11, LU 09 increased by 23, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 12, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 24 [3]