Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy, considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term [1] - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, and increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, but with potential policy - supported price increases from Indonesia [3][4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term trade friction uncertainties and potential price - support policies from Indonesia [9] - For lead, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, with a potential weakening trend in the future [12] - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] - For lithium carbonate, the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price data shows changes in various indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 55 increase in spot premium and a 2926 increase in SHFE warehouse receipts [1] - Macro - level: Trump's tariff announcement led to a 4.5% drop in LME copper on Friday. The impact may be less than the Qingming Festival disturbance. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1] - Fundamental: Smelting production cuts exceeded expectations, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. After the price drop on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase next week, leading to inventory reduction. Pay attention to the stability of copper cable production [1] Aluminum - Price data shows changes in aluminum prices, alumina prices, and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 190 decrease in the Shanghai aluminum ingot price [1] - Fundamental: The operating capacity is increasing slightly. The production of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation due to the holiday effect. The global economic recovery and Fed's rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, causing a divergence in domestic and foreign market trends [1] Zinc - Price data shows changes in zinc prices, inventory, and other indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 100 decrease in the Shanghai zinc ingot price [2] - Supply: Domestic TC is decreasing, and imported TC is increasing. Domestic mines will be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in Q2. The smelting end is slightly recovering in October [2] - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. Some overseas smelters face production difficulties due to processing fees [2] - Strategy: The domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. Due to increased macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [2] Nickel - Price data shows changes in nickel - related prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 1300 decrease in the SHFE nickel spot price [3] - Fundamental: Pure nickel production remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is stable domestically but increasing overseas. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] - News: The protests in Indonesia have subsided, but there are still disturbances in the mining end, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices [4] Stainless Steel - Price data shows a decrease in stainless - steel prices from September 29 to October 13, such as a 50 decrease in the 304 cold - rolled coil price [9] - Fundamental: Steel mills' production in October is slightly increasing. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable, and inventory has increased during the holiday [9] - Policy: There is potential price - support from Indonesian policies, and trade friction uncertainties have increased [9] Lead - Price data shows changes in lead - related prices and inventory from September 29 to October 13, such as a 9293 decrease in the SHFE inventory [12] - Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and the production is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The primary lead production may decrease partially, and the recycled lead production will increase, with a total increase of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [12] - Demand: The battery production rate increased this week, but the finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day holiday, the demand may weaken [12] - Price forecast: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 and 17,400 next week and may weaken in the future [12] Tin - Price data shows changes in tin - related indicators from September 29 to October 13, such as a 4990 decrease in the tin position [15] - Supply: The processing fee of tin ore is low, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas supply is expected to recover in October, and Indonesian exports have resumed [15] - Demand: The solder market has slightly recovered during the peak season. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level [15] - Strategy: Follow the macro sentiment in the short term, wait and see, and consider holding at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long term [15] Industrial Silicon - Price data shows changes in industrial - silicon - related basis and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 120 decrease in the 421 Yunnan basis [16] - Supply: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. There is a strong expectation of production cuts in November [16] - Outlook: The supply - demand is balanced in Q4, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the long term [16] Lithium Carbonate - Price data shows changes in lithium - carbonate prices, basis, and warehouse receipts from September 29 to October 13, such as a 450 decrease in the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price [16] - Supply: Overseas mines are reluctant to lower prices, and traders are reluctant to sell. Salt plants are less willing to accept high - priced lithium ore [16] - Demand: The pre - holiday inventory - building has almost ended. The spot basis is weak, and most transactions are at a discount [16] - Outlook: The price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized and strong downward support before such disturbances [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on October 13, 2025, including data on government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading across major economies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies are presented, with details on latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield on October 13, 2025, was 4.034%, with a one - week change of - 0.142 and a one - year change of 0.282 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies are shown, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate on October 13, 2025, was 5.521, with a one - week change of 3.31% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Closing prices and percentage changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of major economies' stock indices are provided. The S&P 500 index on October 13, 2025, was 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 1.37% and a one - year change of 14.19% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data on investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices of the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are given, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US investment - grade credit bond index on October 13, 2025, was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.67% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented. The A - share closing price was 3889.50, with a change of - 0.19% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比变化 (comparative change) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are shown. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.19, with a环比变化 of - 0.06 [3]. - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比变化 of several indices are provided. The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of CSI 300 was 3.70, with a环比变化 of 0.00 [3]. - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are given. The latest fund flow in A - shares was 278.56, and the 5 - day average was - 118.93 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volumes and环比变化 of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are presented. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23547.41, with a环比变化 of - 1608.73 [3]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage of IF, IH, and IC are provided. The basis of IF was - 31.38, with a percentage of - 0.68% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are presented, all with 0.00% change. The closing price of T00 was 108.065 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are shown, along with their daily changes in basis points. The R001 was 1.3570%, with a daily change of - 13.00 BP [4].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/29 | 3150 | 3220 | 3220 | 3170 | 3290 | 3240 | | 2025/09/30 | 3150 | 3210 | 3220 | 3170 | 3290 | 3240 | | 2025/10/09 | 3190 | 3250 | 3220 | 3170 | 3290 | 3240 | | 2025/10/10 | 3190 | 3260 | 3220 | 3170 | 3290 | 3280 | | 2025/10/13 | 3130 | 3210 | 3190 | 3150 | 3260 | 3220 | | 变化 | -60 | -50 | -30 | -20 | -30 | -60 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 ...

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4095.95 with a change of 121.45 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 51.24 with a change of 0.48 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1635.00 with a change of -51.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1455.00 with a change of -48.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10598.50 with a change of -139.00 [1] Trading Data - SHFE Silver inventory is 1124.46 with a change of -44.60 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 is 1018.88 with a change of 1.72 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 is 15754.26 with a change of 310.50 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 1216.97 with no change [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of -1.00 [1]

| | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5130 5200 | -50 0 | -50 0 | 5430 5550 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5406 5368 | -30 -28 | -66 -72 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | -50 | -50 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5478 | -30 | -94 | | | 陕西#72 | 5100 | -50 | -50 | 5400 | 09合约 | 5584 | -36 | -104 | | | 陕西#75 | 6100 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 24 | -20 | 16 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly provides a series of data on synthetic rubber, including prices, positions, volumes, and spreads. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Data**: - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 11655 on 9/11 to 10920 on 10/13, a decrease of 735 [3]. - The position volume of the main contract was 22243 on 9/11 and 32013 on 10/13, with a daily increase of 3155 and a weekly decrease of 8078 [3]. - The trading volume of the main contract was 62200 on 9/11 and 113246 on 10/13, with a daily increase of 41719 and a weekly decrease of 78508 [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity was 13670 on 9/11 and 8550 on 10/13, with a daily increase of 430 and a weekly decrease of 700 [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis of cis - butadiene increased from 120 on 9/26 to 230 on 10/13, with a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 110 [3]. - The 10 - 11 month spread decreased from 30 on 9/11 to - 90 on 10/13, a decrease of 120 [3]. - The 11 - 12 month spread increased from 10 on 9/11 to 45 on 10/13, an increase of 35 [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The Shandong market price decreased from 11750 on 9/11 to 11150 on 10/13, a decrease of 600 [3]. - The Chuanhua market price decreased from 11550 on 9/11 to 10950 on 10/13, a decrease of 600 [3]. - The Qilu ex - factory price decreased from 11900 on 9/11 to 11200 on 10/13, a decrease of 700 [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profit Data**: - The spot processing profit increased from - 115 on 9/11 to 229 on 10/13, an increase of 344 [3]. - The import profit increased from - 84482 on 9/11 to - 79401 on 10/13, an increase of 5081 [3]. - The export profit increased from - 86 on 9/11 to 324 on 10/13, an increase of 410 [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Price Data**: - The Shandong market price decreased from 9475 on 9/11 to 8550 on 10/13, a decrease of 925 [3]. - The Jiangsu market price decreased from 9275 on 9/11 to 8450 on 10/13, a decrease of 825 [3]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price decreased from 9250 on 9/11 to 8600 on 10/13, a decrease of 650 [3]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profit Data**: - The carbon - four extraction profit decreased from 1997 on 9/11 to an unavailable value on 10/13 [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit decreased from 111 on 9/11 to - 294 on 10/13, a decrease of 405 [3]. - The import profit decreased from 317 on 9/11 to an unavailable value on 10/13 [3]. - The export profit increased from - 922 on 9/11 to - 565 on 10/13, an increase of 357 [3]. 3.3 Downstream Profit - The production profit of butadiene styrene decreased from 1113 on 9/11 to 888 on 10/13, a decrease of 225 [3]. - The production profit of ABS decreased from - 94 on 9/11 to an unavailable value on 10/13 [3]. - The production profit of SBS (791 - H) decreased from 855 on 9/11 to an unavailable value on 10/13 [3]. 3.4 Variety - to - Variety Spreads - The spread between RU - BR decreased from - 6338 on 9/11 to - 17073 on 10/13, a decrease of 10735 [3]. - The spread between NR - BR decreased from - 9623 on 9/11 to - 19973 on 10/13, a decrease of 10350 [3]. - The spread between Thai mixed - cis - butadiene decreased from 3250 on 9/11 to 3300 on 10/13, an increase of 50 [3]. - The spread between 3L - butadiene styrene increased from 3000 on 9/11 to 3450 on 10/13, an increase of 450 [3]. 3.5 Intra - Variety Spreads - The spread between cis - butadiene standard and non - standard products increased from 250 on 9/11 to 450 on 10/13, an increase of 200 [3]. - The spread between butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 decreased from 1000 on 9/11 to 950 on 10/13, a decrease of 50 [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 14, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 85010, three - month price is 85120, LME three - month price is 10599, and the ratio is 8.02 [1]. - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22200, three - month price is 22290, LME three - month price is 3014, and the ratio is 5.69 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20800, three - month price is 20890, LME three - month price is 2755, and the ratio is 7.57 [1]. - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 123600, and the profit of spot import is - 1256.48 [1]. - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16925, three - month price is 17110, LME three - month price is 2007, and the ratio is 11.09 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are 120, 120, 80, 90 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 527, 952, 1386, 1820 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 50, 85, 115, 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 454, 574 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 20, 25, 25, 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 564 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are - 5, 10, 5, 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 530 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 260, 430, 700, 880 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 80, and the theoretical spread is 5841 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 10 and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 98 and 585 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 5 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 82 and 211 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 175 and 170 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 105 and 218 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.82, 4.07, 4.97, 0.94, 1.22, 0.77 respectively [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [3] Group 2: Price and Volume Data Futures Contracts - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to October 13, most BU futures contracts showed a downward trend. For example, BU01 decreased from 3313 to 3181, a drop of 67 points week - on - week and 215 points month - on - month [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume on October 13 was 341102, an increase of 17781 from the previous day and a decrease of 7466 from the previous week. The open interest was 341209, an increase of 18615 from the previous day and a decrease of 25349 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market - **Market Prices**: Market prices in different regions generally declined. For instance, the Shandong market price dropped from 3530 to 3480, a decrease of 10 points day - on - day and 20 points week - on - week [4]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between regions also changed. For example, the Shandong - Northeast price difference increased from - 320 to - 270 [4]. Basis and Monthly Spread - **Basis**: The basis of different regions showed various changes. The Shandong basis (+80) increased from 100 to 178, an increase of 78 points week - on - week [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads such as 10 - 11, 10 - 12, etc., all showed significant increases. For example, the 10 - 12 spread increased from 57 to 248, an increase of 191 points week - on - week [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - **Crack Spread and Profits**: The asphalt Brent crack spread and various refinery profits showed different trends. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit increased from 447 to 541, an increase of 92 points week - on - week [4]. - **Import Profits**: Import profits from South Korea to East China and from Singapore to South China both decreased. The import profit from South Korea to East China decreased from - 102 to - 247, a decrease of 70 points week - on - week [4]. Other Related Prices - **Crude Oil and Product Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased from 66.4 to 62.7, a decrease of 2.7 points week - on - week. The Shandong market price of gasoline decreased from 7533 to 7390, a decrease of 123 points week - on - week [4]. Group 3: Other Information - **Data Sources**: The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel, Cloud Asphalt, and Wind [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the monthly spread of nearby months weakened, the basis oscillated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period, the monthly spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread dropped to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened. From the fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased (compared to a high level), floating storage decreased significantly, ARA residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low for the same period, EIA residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, Fujeirah slightly increased inventory (compared to a low level), and the Middle - East high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the Singapore high - sulfur spot market has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement, with limited short - term downward space. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded on dips, and attention should be paid to the quota usage [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, the price changed from 430.72 to 378.78, a decrease of 51.94; for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, it changed from 393.32 to 408.50, an increase of 15.18; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 5.01 to - 3.49, an increase of 1.52; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 675.28 to 630.08, a decrease of 45.2; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 244.56 to - 221.58, an increase of 22.98; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 24.98 to 23.27, a decrease of 1.71; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 37.40 to 29.72, a decrease of 7.68 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 409.64 to 376.28, a decrease of 33.36; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 418.64 to 382.83, a decrease of 35.81; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 477.13 to 443.88, a decrease of 33.25; for Singapore Gasoil M1, it changed from 90.86 to 84.47, a decrease of 6.39; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 3.88 to - 3.93, a decrease of 0.05; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 195.23 to - 181.20, an increase of 14.03 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 410.90 to 374.29, a decrease of 36.61; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 477.90 to 438.87, a decrease of 39.03; the 380 basis changed from 0.95 to - 0.50, a decrease of 1.45; the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 8.8 to 9.8, an increase of 1; the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed from 10.8 to 5.8, a decrease of 5 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for FU 01, the price changed from 2919 to 2737, a decrease of 182; for FU 05, it changed from 2852 to 2697, a decrease of 155; for FU 09, it changed from 2748 to 2644, a decrease of 104; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from 67 to 40, a decrease of 27; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 104 to 53, a decrease of 51; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from - 171 to - 93, an increase of 78 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 29, 2025, to October 13, 2025, for LU 01, the price changed from 3469 to 3226, a decrease of 243; for LU 05, it changed from 3423 to 3220, a decrease of 203; for LU 09, it changed from 3390 to 3208, a decrease of 182; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 46 to 6, a decrease of 40; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from 33 to 12, a decrease of 21; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 79 to - 18, an increase of 61 [3].

Report Overview - The report is an LPG morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 14, 2025, providing daily and weekly data on LPG market [1]. Key Data and Changes Price Changes - On October 14, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in different regions showed mixed trends: in East China, it was 4386 (+2); in Shandong, it was 4450 (+0); in South China, it was 4560 (-30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (-110) [1]. - The lowest delivery location was East China, with the latest basis at 265, and the spread between November and December was 136 (+29) [1]. - FEI and CP dropped significantly, with the latest prices at 470 and 452 US dollars per ton respectively [1]. PG Market Changes - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4384 (+21); Shandong was 4450 (-100); South China was 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the spread between November and December was 78 (+0) [1]. - The warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The official price of CP in October opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 US dollars lower than expected [1]. - The FEI monthly spread was -15 US dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was -8.75 US dollars (+0.25) [1]. - The internal - external price difference: PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. - AFEI was at a discount of -18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to -83 (-28) [1]. PDH Profit - The spot profit of PDH to produce propylene changed little; the profit of producing PP rebounded from a low level. The PDH operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64 pct), with Haiwei, Li Huayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing expected to resume next week [1]. Core View - The LPG market shows that inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually picking up. With the current high PG basis, low FEI and CP valuations, and the expiration of the China - US tariff truce agreement on November 10, the improvement of PDH profit may lead to an increase in the demand for CP cargo purchases. It is advisable to pay attention to narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the official CP price at the end of the month [1]