投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税政策不断变化，引领市场剧烈波动 ——铜铝周报2025.04.14 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：美国关税政策端利空逐步被市场消化，后续重点关注关 | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 税谈判情况以及关税政策对经济的影响情况。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位78500元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月10日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至26.72万吨，连续六周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：清明节后铜价大跌已经兑现美国关税利空影响，但关 | 73000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | ...

中原期货研究所 2025 第（64）期 发布日期：2025-04-11 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/11 08:00 | 2025/4/10 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 39593.66 | 40608.45 | -1014.790 | -2.499 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 16387.31 | 17124.97 | -737.660 | -4.308 | | 标普500 | | 5268.05 | 5456.90 | -188.850 | -3.461 | | 恒生指数 | | 20681.78 | 20264.49 | 417.290 | 2.059 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.61 | 1.74 | -0.134 | -7.697 | | 美元指数 | | 100.68 | 100.94 | -0.257 | -0.255 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.34 | 7.34 | 0 | 0 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade tariff adjustment and the EU's counter - tariff measures against the US. The market sentiment is volatile, and different asset classes show various trends. In the short term, the market may experience high - volatility fluctuations, and investors are advised to wait for the situation to become clearer [7][8][21][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - **Stock Indexes**: On April 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was at 40608.45, up 7.87% from the previous trading day; the Nasdaq Index was at 17124.97, up 12.163%; the S&P 500 was at 5456.90, up 9.515%; the Hang Seng Index was at 20264.49, up 0.68% [2] - **Commodity Futures**: Most commodity futures showed price changes. For example, COMEX gold rose 3.385% to $3099.80, and NYMEX crude oil rose 7.694% to $62.71 [2] - **Domestic Futures**: In the domestic market, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also had different price fluctuations. For instance, domestic gold rose 0.53% to 732 yuan/gram, and methanol rose 0.85% to 2372 yuan/ton [2][4] 2. Macro - News - **Tariff Adjustment**: The State Council Tariff Commission of China increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 84% starting from 12:01 on April 10. The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US - imported products in retaliation for the US's tariff on EU steel and aluminum [7][8] - **Policy Statements**: China issued a white paper clarifying its stance on Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that it would firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The Chinese government emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, and stimulating the vitality of business entities [7][8] 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a stalemate. Affected by the tariff increase on US - origin goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meal, and long - spread arbitrage can be considered [13] - **Sugar**: The supply side has improved rainfall in Brazil, and the domestic syrup import suspension provides support. The demand side has good domestic sugar sales, but the short - term inventory pressure remains. It is recommended to use 6000 yuan as the key dividing line for trading [13] - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable. The market shows an oversupply and weak demand situation, and the spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [13] - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded due to post - holiday restocking and pre - May Day stocking, but the price increase space is limited due to supply pressure. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [15] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The market atmosphere is weakening. The 2505 contract of caustic soda may continue to operate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of last year's low [15] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is declining. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is slowing down. The short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a high level [15] 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the prices of copper and aluminum continue to decline. The inventory of copper has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum has increased. The market is worried about the impact of tariffs [15][17] - **Alumina**: The new production capacity of domestic alumina is being put into operation, and the supply is in surplus. The 2505 contract is expected to operate weakly [17] - **Steel Products**: The night trading prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have risen. The spot trading volume is fair, and the inventory reduction of steel products continues, but the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [17] 3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has rebounded, and the US stock market has also risen significantly. The tariff war between China and the US may have a negative impact on the global financial system. Short - term investors can wait for the situation to become clearer, and some trading strategies such as short - term volatility strategies and combination arbitrage strategies can be considered [21][23][24] - **Options**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index options have different changes. Trend investors can hold long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can sell put options to short - sell volatility [25][26]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（62）期 发布日期：2025-04-09 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/9 | 2025/4/8 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | | | 08:00 | 15:00 | | | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 37645.59 | 37965.60 | -320.010 | -0.843 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 15267.91 | 15603.26 | -335.350 | -2.149 | | 标普500 | | 4982.77 | 5062.25 | -79.480 | -1.570 | | 恒生指数 | | 20127.68 | 19828.30 | 299.380 | 1.510 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.74 | 1.79 | -0.046 | -2.570 | | 美元指数 | | 102.74 | 102.97 | -0.236 | -0.229 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.34 | 7 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（61）期 发布日期：2025-04-08 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/4/8 08:00 | 2025/4/7 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 37965.60 | 38314.86 | -349.260 | -0.912 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 15603.26 | 15587.79 | 15.470 | 0.099 | | 标普500 | | 5062.25 | 5074.08 | -11.830 | -0.233 | | 恒生指数 | | 19828.30 | 22849.81 | -3021.510 | -13.223 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.79 | 1.62 | 0.173 | 10.699 | | 美元指数 | | 103.43 | 103.50 | -0.073 | -0.070 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.31 | 7.31 | 0 | 0 | ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 关注宏观影响及下游跟进情况 ——尿素周报2025.04.07 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 尿素周度观点——关注宏观影响及下游跟进情况 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 尿素 1. 供应：部分装置临时检修，供应阶段性减量； 2. 需求：工业刚需支撑仍存； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存延续去化趋势； 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格跌幅放缓，尿素利润环比增加； 5. 基差与价差：5-9价差偏强震荡，05基差走强。 6. 整体逻辑： 本周国内尿素现货市场价格窄幅调整，下游采购心态较为谨慎。近期临时检修装置较多， 供应呈现阶段性减量状态。需求端，复合肥企业发运放缓，产能利用率环比下降，但高开工对 尿素刚需支撑仍存，带动上游尿素企业库存持续去化。整体来看，下游采购跟进有所放缓 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 关税冲击，双硅弱势运行 ——铁合金周报20250407 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F03099603 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0020978 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：硅铁上周产量11.1万吨（环比-0.89%，同比+26.14%）,2025年3月硅铁产量 50.27万吨（环比+3.85%，同比+18.02%）。 | | | | | 需求：硅铁五大材消费量2.03万吨（环比+0.59%，同比+2.01%），五大材周产量 | | | | | 872.52万吨（环比+0.35%，同比+2.77%）。 | | | | | 库存：7.96万吨（环比-2.96%，同比+11.89% ），3月库存天数17天（环比+0.34 天，同比+0.58天）；硅铁仓单数量：10369张（环比+520张，同比-2187张）。 | | | | | 成本：兰炭持稳，阳极 ...

中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.04.07 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——关注宏观影响及装置检修情况 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率85.09%（+2.72%），氨碱法88.12%（环比+5.30%），联碱法79.71%（-6.83%)；周 产量71.30万吨（+2.28万吨），轻碱产量32.38万吨（+0.27万吨），重碱产量38.91万吨（+2.01 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需64.16万吨（-10.64万吨），轻碱表需31.18万吨（-1.42万吨），重碱表需32.97万 吨（-9.23万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存170.14万吨（+1.59万吨），轻碱库存85.44万吨（+0 ...

作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 贸易摩擦加剧，铜铝大幅走弱 ——铜铝周报2025.04.07 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观面：特朗普宣布对等关税，加征幅度超出市场预期，中国立 | 沪铜2506合约 | | | | 即加征关税进行反制。 | 上方参考压力 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、基本面：当前国内铜精矿加工费仍然处于负值，铜价高位回落后， | 位78000元/吨 | 观政策及经 | | 铜 | 终端消费有所恢复，社会库存延续性去库；截至4月3日，全国主流 | 一线，下方参 | 济数据变化； | | | 地区铜库存降至31.36万吨，连续五周去库。 | 考支撑位 | 2、国外铜矿 | | | 3、整体逻辑：美国挑起新一轮贸易摩擦，市场情绪偏弱，假期期间 | 73000元/吨一 | 供应因素。 | | | 外盘市场大幅下跌，C ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government's tariff policy has a significant impact on global capital markets, with sharp declines in major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Saudi All-Share Index [7]. - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025, which is expected to affect the market sentiment of related products [12][19]. - The global manufacturing recovery is weakening, while China's consumer market is showing positive momentum in the first quarter [8]. - The performance of various commodities and financial markets is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and investors need to pay attention to risks and opportunities [12][13][14][15][18][19][20] Summary by Directory Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On April 7, 2025, compared with April 6, major global stock indices generally declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped by 5.503% to 38314.86, the Nasdaq Index fell by 5.817% to 15587.79, and the S&P 500 decreased by 5.975% to 5074.08. The Hang Seng Index declined by 1.520% to 22849.81 [2]. - **Currencies**: The SHIBOR overnight rate decreased by 7.916% to 1.62, the US dollar index dropped by 0.415% to 102.49, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.30 [2]. - **Commodities**: Most commodities showed price declines. For example, COMEX gold decreased by 2.613% to 3056.10, COMEX silver fell by 7.518% to 29.53, and LME copper dropped by 7.223% to 8690.00. However, CBOT corn rose by 0.436% to 460.50 [2]. Macro - Economic News - **Global Market Impact**: The US tariff policy has led to significant drops in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling more than 10% and 11% respectively in two days. Saudi All - Share Index tumbled 6.78%, and Saudi Aramco's market value evaporated about $90 billion [7]. - **Upcoming Events**: China will impose a 34% tariff on US goods starting from April 10; the EU plans to take comprehensive counter - measures against US tariffs; inflation data of China and the US in March will be released; the US earnings season will start; and the 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecology Conference will be held in Nanjing [7]. - **China's Economic Situation**: China is strengthening its opening - up legal system, attracting more international investors. The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's consumer market showed positive momentum in the first quarter, with the offline consumption heat index increasing by 14.2% year - on - year [8]. - **Regional Economic Developments**: In Zhejiang, manufacturing investment increased significantly from January to February. Hunan Province plans to develop a credible data space, aiming to have over 500 network nodes by 2028 [9]. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a stalemate. With the tariff on US goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meals [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The tariff on US imports is expected to drive the oil and meal market to be bullish [12]. - **Sugar**: The price has broken through the previous range. Short - term buying on dips is recommended, but attention should be paid to the resistance at 6200 and the risk of price correction [12]. - **Corn**: The price has shown a stable rebound. Buying on dips is suggested, but beware of port inventory pressure and weak spot price follow - up [12]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures contract is in a discount state, oscillating between 13500 - 14000. A 5 - 10 positive spread can be considered [12][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to the price changes around holidays [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The 2505 contract may continue to be weak, but beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [14]. - **Urea**: The price is stable with a slight weakness. The UR2505 contract is expected to trade between 1840 - 1930 yuan/ton. Unilateral operations should be cautious [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the prices of copper and aluminum have weakened. Copper and aluminum inventories have decreased [13][14][15]. - **Alumina**: The 2505 contract is expected to be weak, and beware of short - term rebound due to position reduction [15]. - **Steel Products**: The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The prices of steel products may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3200 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to continue weak oscillations [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may face pressure due to tariff sentiment, and they are in a weak oscillation at low levels [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a weak oscillation. Short positions are recommended, but beware of over - decline rebound [15][16]. Options and Financial Markets - **Stock Market Performance**: On April 3, A - share indices closed lower. The US tariff policy has put pressure on the A - share market. The domestic market may remain weak in the short - term. Before a significant bottom - out with heavy trading volume, short - term volatility strategies can be considered; otherwise, combination arbitrage strategies of IF/IH and IC/IM can be used [18][19][20].