作者：子成 来源： 销售与管理Plus（ID：Marketing360） 当蒙牛乳业 2024年财报数字出炉时，整个乳业圈倒吸一口凉气！ 全年净利润同比暴跌近 98%，仅剩1.05亿元 ， 相当于每天只赚28万多，创下近8年最差纪 录。 为何利润会突然暴跌，是因为两笔历史收购： 一个是 2019年买 回来的澳洲乳企贝拉米；另 一个是现代牧业。 蒙牛对之前收购的这两家公司， 计提了大额的一次性 减值损失约 48亿 ，所以导致了利润的 下滑。 2019年，蒙牛以超过7０亿元的高溢价收购澳洲奶粉品牌贝拉米，彼时张灯结彩的庆功宴上， 没人想到这会是噩梦的开始。这家曾年销10亿的明星企业，在被收入囊中后迅速陨落，如今对 蒙牛的业绩影响约为39.814亿。 同样的剧本在现代牧业身上重演。这家被分两次斥资 50 亿港元收购的原奶供应商，因原奶价 格暴跌导致生物资产减值，让蒙牛背上8.271亿的亏损。 加上此前雅士利、多美滋等收购案，蒙牛这真是， 买一路赔一路。 事实上，不论是现代牧业，还是贝拉米，都曾被蒙牛寄予厚望。 前者作为中国最大的原奶供应商之一，在蒙牛入股之时，被认为是蒙牛加强对上游产业链控制 的战略之举；后者则寄托 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 50.85 billion, 56.38 billion, and 60.58 billion respectively, indicating significant growth potential [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 886.75 billion in 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion, down 97.83% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.509 per share, totaling 19.94 billion, with a payout ratio of 45% [2]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to impairment losses related to Bellamy and the joint venture Modern Dairy, which impacted profits significantly [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other businesses was 730.66 billion, 51.75 billion, 33.20 billion, 43.20 billion, and 27.94 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.97%, -14.12%, -12.66%, -0.86%, and +17.99% [3]. - The second half of 2024 showed improvements with liquid milk and milk powder revenue declines narrowing, while ice cream and cheese businesses experienced growth [3]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 39.57%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw milk prices [4]. - The net profit margin was 0.12%, a decrease of 4.76 percentage points, primarily due to significant impairment losses [4]. Strategic Positioning - The company is leveraging its channel advantages and rapidly iterating new products to meet diverse consumer needs, positioning itself for recovery in the liquid milk segment [5]. - The company is expected to further increase its market share in the medium to long term due to its leading channel advantages and swift product innovation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for pasteurized milk in China is declining due to macroeconomic slowdown and consumer confidence issues, with projected consumption dropping to 1.7818 million tons and market size to 35.889 billion yuan in 2024 [1][8]. Overview - Pasteurized milk, also known as pasteurized milk or fresh milk, is produced from raw cow (or sheep) milk through pasteurization, retaining its nutritional value and natural flavor, making it popular among consumers [2]. - It requires refrigeration at around 4°C and has a short shelf life of 2-7 days. It can be categorized into whole, low-fat, and skimmed pasteurized milk based on fat content, and pure or flavored based on added ingredients [2]. Industry Policies - A series of policies have been implemented to support the dairy industry in China, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" for enhancing dairy competitiveness and various initiatives aimed at rural revitalization and high-quality development of the dairy sector [4][5]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the pasteurized milk industry includes milk sources (dairy cattle and sheep farming), production equipment, and packaging materials, while the downstream encompasses sales channels such as supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms [6][7]. Competitive Landscape - The market concentration of the pasteurized milk industry in China has increased, with leading companies like Bright Dairy, Mengniu Dairy, and New Hope Dairy holding over 70% of the market share. Bright Dairy has the largest share at 18.5%, followed by Mengniu Dairy at 12.6% [10]. - Bright Dairy's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 12.71 billion yuan, with liquid milk accounting for 61.16% of sales [12]. - Mengniu Dairy reported a revenue of 44.67 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a gross profit of 17.98 billion yuan and a gross margin of 40.26% [14]. Development Trends - The competition in the pasteurized milk market is expected to intensify, leading companies to focus on product differentiation. Brands will likely introduce unique products such as functional and organic pasteurized milk, along with innovative forms and flavors to cater to younger consumers [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 886.75 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 10.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, down 97.83% year-on-year [1]. - The liquid milk business is showing signs of improvement, with revenue from various product categories such as liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other dairy products experiencing different levels of growth and decline [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 39.57%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling raw milk prices and improved profitability across multiple product categories [3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024, excluding certain impairments, was 44.35 billion CNY, with an adjusted net profit margin increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of 886.75 billion CNY in 2024, down from 986.24 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of -10.09% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 1.05 billion CNY, a significant drop from 4.81 billion CNY in 2023, resulting in a net profit growth rate of -97.83% [5]. Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue was 730.66 billion CNY, down 11.0% year-on-year, while ice cream and milk powder revenues decreased by 14.1% and 12.7%, respectively [2]. - Cheese revenue showed an increase of 18.0%, indicating a positive trend in this category [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin improved to 39.57% in 2024, up 2.42 percentage points from the previous year, driven by lower raw milk prices [3]. - The operating profit margin for 2024 was reported at 8.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 50.91 billion CNY for 2025, 52.92 billion CNY for 2026, and 55.75 billion CNY for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.35, and 1.42 CNY [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14 for 2025, indicating a stable valuation for a leading dairy company [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Hold" for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to fluctuate within ±5% of the benchmark [15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 886.75 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.05 billion, down 97.8% year-on-year [2]. - The second half of 2024 saw weak demand in the dairy industry, leading to revenue pressure across various business segments, with liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese revenues showing year-on-year changes of -9.0%, +5.0%, -11.7%, and +5.0% respectively [4]. - The decline in raw milk prices improved the gross margin, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% for the year. Despite cost-cutting measures, the overall expense ratio slightly increased due to revenue decline [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2024, excluding the impact of impairments related to Bellamy and deferred tax [4]. - For 2025, the company expects low single-digit revenue growth, with milk prices remaining stable or slightly declining, and aims for a steady operating profit margin improvement of 30-50 basis points annually over the next three years [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 910 billion, RMB 943 billion, and RMB 986 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of +3%, +4%, and +5% [5]. - The projected net profits for the same years are RMB 49.53 billion, RMB 54.80 billion, and RMB 64.26 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of +4639%, +11%, and +17% respectively [5]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15, 14, and 12 times respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Hold" for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to fluctuate within ±5% of the benchmark [15]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 886.75 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.52%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.05 billion, down 97.8% year-on-year [2]. - The second half of 2024 saw weak demand in the dairy industry, leading to revenue pressure across various business segments, with liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese revenues showing year-on-year changes of -9.0%, +5.0%, -11.7%, and +5.0% respectively [4]. - The decline in raw milk prices improved the gross margin, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% for the year, despite a slight increase in overall expense ratios due to revenue decline [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2024, focusing on profit improvement while excluding certain impairments from its dividend calculation [4]. - For 2025, the company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth, with milk prices expected to remain stable or slightly decrease, while operating profit margins are projected to remain relatively stable [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 910 billion, with year-on-year growth of 3%, and net profit expected to reach RMB 49.53 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 4639% [5]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 39.57% for 2025, 39.90% for 2026, and 40.10% for 2027 [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.26 in 2025, increasing to RMB 1.64 by 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve its profitability despite the impact of goodwill impairment on profits [1]. - The revenue and operating profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 886.75 billion and CNY 72.57 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1% and +17.6% [5]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 44.35 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [5]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, leading to an effective increase in gross margin, with gross margin and operating profit margin for 2024 at 39.6% and 8.2%, respectively, up by 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Product Performance - The company has seen stable development in ambient liquid milk, while low-temperature yogurt has performed well [6]. - Revenue from liquid milk and ice cream for 2024 is expected to be CNY 730.66 billion and CNY 51.75 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.0% and -14.1% [6]. - The company is expanding its lactose-free product line and enhancing its brand presence in the baking and tea beverage sectors [6]. Business Segments - The milk powder business is recovering, with revenue expected to be CNY 33.20 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [7]. - The cheese business has been successfully integrated, leading to significant improvements in profitability [7]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, maintaining a leading position in markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines [9]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of CNY 900.16 billion, CNY 921.34 billion, and CNY 943.07 billion, respectively [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from CNY 1.32 in 2025 to CNY 1.63 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 13, and 11 times [10]. - The report highlights that there is room for product structure optimization across different categories, and a decrease in management expense ratio is expected to offset some of the increase in sales expense ratio [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue of 886.75 billion and an operating profit of 72.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1% in revenue and +17.6% in operating profit [5] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 44.35 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [5] - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to an increase in gross margin to 39.6%, up by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company plans to enhance its profitability and expects revenue growth from 900.16 billion in 2025 to 943.07 billion in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.32 to 1.63 [10] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of 886.75 billion and an operating profit of 72.57 billion for 2024, with a revenue decline of 10.1% and an operating profit increase of 17.6% year-on-year [5] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 44.35 billion, down 7.8% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin improved to 39.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, while the operating profit margin reached 8.2%, up by 1.9 percentage points [5] Product Performance - The company’s liquid milk and ice cream revenue for 2024 was 730.66 billion and 51.75 billion, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 11.0% and 14.1% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its lactose-free product line and enhancing its high-end fresh milk market share [6] - The milk powder business showed strong growth, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, driven by the success of its infant formula brand [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 900.16 billion in 2025 to 943.07 billion in 2027, with EPS projected to rise from 1.32 to 1.63 [10] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability, with a focus on optimizing product structures and managing costs effectively [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 88.68 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.105 billion yuan, down 97.8% year-on-year [7] - The operating profit margin (OPM) exceeded expectations, driven by a decrease in costs, with a gross margin increase of 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% in 2024 [7] - The company is expected to see improved performance in 2025, with a significant rebound in net profit forecasted to reach 5.31 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4,971.96% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's total revenue was 88.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.105 billion yuan, down 97.8% year-on-year [7] - The company’s liquid milk revenue was under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 11% [7] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin improved to 39.6%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from cost reductions [7] - The operating profit margin (OPM) showed a significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [7] Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 88.93 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 5.31 billion yuan [7] - The company anticipates a rebound in performance, with net profit expected to grow by 4,971.96% in 2025 [7] - The capital expenditure is projected to decrease by 14% in 2024, reflecting a focus on shareholder returns [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 88.68 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.105 billion yuan, down 97.8% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a revenue of 44.0 billion yuan, a decline of 7.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of -2.34 billion yuan [7] - The company's liquid milk revenue was under pressure due to weak demand and proactive destocking, with liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, cheese, and other product revenues declining by 11%, 13%, 14%, 0.9%, and increasing by 18% respectively in 2024 [7] - The gross margin and operating profit margin (OPM) exceeded expectations, benefiting from cost reductions, with the gross margin increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 39.6% in 2024 [7] - The company faced impairment losses and joint venture losses that affected profits, but there is optimism for earnings elasticity in 2025 due to expected improvements in industry supply and demand [7] - Capital expenditures decreased by 14% to 3.58 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on shareholder returns, increasing the dividend payout ratio by 5 percentage points to 45% [7] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 88.9 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 5.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4972% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.03 yuan, with subsequent years showing an increase to 1.35 yuan in 2025, 1.56 yuan in 2026, and 1.74 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 681.80 for 2024, decreasing to 13.44 in 2025, 11.67 in 2026, and 10.45 in 2027 [1][8]