Group 1: Market Overview - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of HKD 96.47 billion, with HK Stock Connect (Shanghai) contributing HKD 81.67 billion and HK Stock Connect (Shenzhen) contributing HKD 14.79 billion [1] - The most bought stocks included Meituan-W (03690), China Construction Bank (00939), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) [1] - The most sold stocks were the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Tencent (00700), and SMIC (00981) [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net inflow of HKD 2.77 billion, with buy and sell amounts of HKD 21.78 billion and HKD 19.01 billion respectively [2] - Meituan-W (03690) received a net buy of HKD 19.21 billion, with significant growth in sales during the "Meituan 618" promotion, achieving a year-on-year increase of twofold [6] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net buy of HKD 6.35 billion, benefiting from strong growth in major appliances and AIoT revenue, which increased by 59% year-on-year [7] Group 3: Sector Insights - China Construction Bank (00939) and Bank of China (03988) received net buys of HKD 13.36 billion and HKD 1.79 billion respectively, indicating a continued interest in domestic bank stocks [6] - The pharmaceutical sector saw Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with a net buy of HKD 6.25 billion, as it engages in potential transactions that could total around USD 5 billion [7] - Ideal Auto-W (02015) received a net buy of HKD 3.55 billion, with expectations of increased production capacity and upcoming model launches [8] Group 4: Notable Sell-offs - SMIC (00981) faced a net sell of HKD 1.44 billion, with guidance indicating a revenue decline of 4%-6% quarter-on-quarter for Q2 2025 [9] - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) experienced a net sell of HKD 8.85 billion, attributed to a lack of catalysts in market sentiment and economic conditions [9] - Tencent (00700) saw a net sell of HKD 8.65 billion, reflecting ongoing market challenges [9]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan's latest quarterly report exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 86.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and net profit soaring to 10.06 billion RMB, up 87% year-on-year. However, the market reacted negatively due to CEO Wang Xing's strong statement about winning competition "at all costs," leading to a lack of guidance for Q2 and the rest of the year [1][2][18]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the quarter was 86.557 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [2]. - Operating profit margin increased significantly from 7.1% in the same period last year to 12.2% [1][2]. - Net profit for the quarter was 10.056 billion RMB, reflecting an 87.3% year-on-year increase [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached 12.302 billion RMB, a 52.4% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Business Strategy - Meituan's food delivery business has transitioned from loss to profitability, with a remarkable operating profit margin of 17.4% as of 2024, according to JP Morgan's report [4][7]. - The strategic value of the food delivery business is immense, as it helps bind user demand and provides significant cash flow, with cash and cash equivalents totaling 115 billion RMB and short-term investments at 65.4 billion RMB [8][10]. - The food delivery business also supports the rapid expansion of Meituan's "instant retail" segment, with a 50% year-on-year increase in orders [10]. Competitive Landscape - Meituan faces competition from JD.com and other platforms, which may challenge its market share and pricing power [18]. - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining user engagement and market dominance, even if it means sacrificing short-term profits [14][15]. - The strategic approach of "spending at all costs" is seen as a tactical move to deter competitors and maintain market leadership [18].

Group 1 - BlackRock's stake in Meituan-W decreased from 6.11% to 5.84% as of May 27 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of e-commerce platforms during the 618 shopping festival, highlighting the aggressive pricing and promotional strategies employed by Meituan Flash Purchase to attract consumers and challenge traditional e-commerce players [2][3][11]. Group 1: Competitive Strategies - Meituan Flash Purchase is leveraging significant discounts, such as offering the iPhone 16 at 4,299 after subsidies, which is lower than many self-operated e-commerce platforms [3][6]. - The platform is distributing substantial coupon packages, including 618 yuan for all users and up to 818 yuan for premium members, enhancing its appeal during the shopping festival [9][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of price comparison, encouraging consumers to utilize Meituan Flash Purchase to find better deals and avoid being manipulated by traditional e-commerce platforms [17]. Group 2: Speed and Convenience - Meituan Flash Purchase promises rapid delivery, with a typical delivery time of around 30 minutes, which is positioned as a significant advantage over traditional e-commerce that relies on longer shipping times [11][12]. - The convenience of quick delivery is highlighted as a key factor in consumer satisfaction, allowing users to receive essential items promptly without the hassle of waiting for standard shipping [11][12]. Group 3: Trust and Reliability - The article points out that trust is a critical issue in e-commerce, particularly for high-value items, where consumers often worry about product quality and after-sales service [15]. - Meituan Flash Purchase aims to alleviate these concerns by partnering with reliable local merchants, ensuring that consumers can trust the quality of products and services offered [15]. - The proximity of physical stores enhances consumer confidence, as they can easily access the merchants if issues arise, thus reducing the perceived risk associated with online shopping [15].

Core Insights - The "颜值经济" (beauty economy) is thriving, with a growing preference for minimally invasive and immediate effect body shaping procedures, despite concerns over market information and effectiveness [2] - Meituan Medical Health launched the "放心美·无忧保障" (Worry-Free Beauty Assurance) service to address user concerns by providing a doctor-centered service model that ensures simple decision-making, transparent pricing, and guaranteed results [2] - The initial offering includes a fixed-price "V-face" plan with four key guarantees, and additional plans for other body parts will be introduced throughout the year [2] Group 1 - The "无忧保障" (Worry-Free Assurance) service is an upgrade to the "放心美" (Worry-Free Beauty) system launched in 2022, which has expanded to cover 2,000 medical beauty institutions and over 4,000 smart verification devices by the end of 2024 [3] - Meituan Medical Health aims to enhance the consumer experience in the medical beauty sector through collaboration with institutional partners, optimizing product and service processes [3] - The platform offers support to institutions participating in "无忧保障," including traffic allocation, exclusive assurance branding, and scene marketing, attracting 122 institutions across 12 cities [3]

Core Insights - The "beauty economy" is experiencing explosive growth driven by social media and consumer upgrades, with a particular rise in demand for minimally invasive body shaping procedures [1][3] - Meituan Medical Beauty has launched the "Worry-Free Beauty·No Worry Guarantee" service to address consumer concerns regarding decision-making and post-purchase experiences in the aesthetic medical sector [1][6] - The platform emphasizes a standardized service model that includes a transparent pricing structure and guarantees on the quality of medical professionals involved [1][4] Group 1: Service Offerings - The "Worry-Free Guarantee" includes a fixed-price model with four key consumer rights: adequate usage, no additional charges at the clinic, guaranteed operation by qualified doctors, and assurance against counterfeit drugs [1][6] - The initial offerings focus on facial procedures, with three pricing tiers (Light, Premium, Luxury) based on the materials used, sourced from reputable brands [6][7] - The platform has partnered with leading medical institutions to ensure that all services meet high standards of quality and safety [1][6] Group 2: Professional Ecosystem - The initiative aims to build a robust ecosystem for medical professionals, allowing them to focus on their expertise rather than marketing [3][4] - A dedicated information page for doctors will showcase their qualifications and patient reviews, enhancing transparency and trust [4][5] - The platform is also opening its content ecosystem to medical professionals, enabling them to share knowledge and experiences through user-generated content [4][5] Group 3: Market Impact - Approximately 40% of potential users express confusion over the plethora of marketing information available, indicating a significant market opportunity for standardized offerings [6][7] - The "Worry-Free Guarantee" is expected to streamline the decision-making process for consumers, reducing the time and effort required to choose services [7] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance consumer trust and satisfaction in the aesthetic medical industry, which is crucial for its sustainable growth [8]

Group 1 - JD's recent aggressive entry into the food delivery market has led to intense competition with Meituan, with both companies engaging in public disputes [1] - The competition between JD and Meituan is rooted in the underlying logic of e-commerce logistics, which can be categorized into "long chain," "middle chain," and "short chain" models [2][3] - JD's "middle chain" model relies on self-operated products and self-built logistics, allowing for faster delivery times compared to Meituan's "short chain" model [4][5] Group 2 - The "short chain" model, while offering faster delivery, faces structural challenges that make it difficult for many companies to achieve scalability and profitability [7][9] - Meituan's success in the "short chain" model is attributed to its strong delivery network and the ability to leverage high-frequency consumer data from its food delivery business [10][18] - JD's decision to enter the food delivery market now is strategic, as both companies seek new growth points amid slowing growth in their respective core businesses [11][13] Group 3 - Meituan's competitive advantages include a robust business development team and an efficient IT system that supports rapid merchant onboarding and operational efficiency [16][17] - JD's current capabilities in business development and IT systems are significantly weaker than Meituan's, which may hinder its ability to compete effectively in the food delivery space [19][21] - The merger of JD's logistics with Dada has impacted the quality of JD's delivery personnel, further widening the gap with Meituan's delivery capabilities [20][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that Meituan's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 86.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Adjusted net profit was 10.949 billion yuan, outperforming Bloomberg consensus estimates [8] - Core local business profits were better than expected, and the trend of reduced losses in new businesses continued. The core local business revenue for Q1 was 64.3 billion yuan (yoy +17.8%), with an operating profit of 13.5 billion yuan (yoy +39.1%), and the operating profit margin increased by 3 percentage points to 21.0% [8] - The report highlights that while competition may impact Q2 profits, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's advantages in fulfillment, supply, and operational efficiency [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Meituan are as follows: - 2023: 276.85 billion yuan - 2024: 337.59 billion yuan (yoy +21.94%) - 2025: 389.69 billion yuan (yoy +15.43%) - 2026: 442.51 billion yuan (yoy +13.55%) - 2027: 494.21 billion yuan (yoy +11.68%) [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 13.86 billion yuan - 2024: 35.81 billion yuan (yoy +158.43%) - 2025: 35.91 billion yuan (yoy +0.28%) - 2026: 46.21 billion yuan (yoy +28.70%) - 2027: 60.46 billion yuan (yoy +30.82%) [1] - The report adjusts the 2025-2027 adjusted profit estimates down to 43.4 billion, 54.1 billion, and 68.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [8] Business Segments - The core local business is expected to maintain healthy growth, particularly in the food delivery segment, with user engagement and purchase frequency improving. The company plans to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years to promote high-quality industry development [8] - Instant retail business showed strong growth, with transaction users exceeding 500 million and daily active users peaking at nearly 6.5 million. Non-food category orders grew over 60% year-on-year [8] - The travel and hotel segment is also expected to grow rapidly, especially in lower-tier cities, supported by enhanced membership benefits [8] - The new business segment, particularly the overseas expansion through Keeta, is showing significant progress, with plans to invest 1 billion USD in the Brazilian market over the next five years [8]

5月29日恒生指数上涨1.35%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为990.06亿港元，其中，买入成交516.94亿港 元，卖出成交473.12亿港元，合计净买入金额43.82亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额 334.38亿港元，买入成交168.17亿港元，卖出成交166.21亿港元，合计净买入金额1.96亿港元；港股通 （沪）累计成交金额655.68亿港元，买入成交348.77亿港元，卖出成交306.91亿港元，合计净买入金额 41.86亿港元。 5月29日南向资金成交活跃股 | 代码 | 简称 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03690 | 美团-W | 712189.63 | 104396.29 | 6.62 | | 06060 | 众安在线 | 339810.30 | 75644.16 | 31.56 | | 01093 | 石药集团 | 202989.66 | 36597.45 | 11.73 | | 09992 | 泡泡玛特 | 192367.26 | 17803.28 | 4.31 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Meituan with a 12-month price target of HK$172, indicating an upside potential of 30.9% from the current price of HK$131.40 [13]. Core Insights - Meituan is focused on defending its leadership in the food delivery market while expanding its Instashopping and Keeta initiatives internationally. The company anticipates a stabilization in the competitive landscape as subsidy levels rationalize over time [7][11]. - The report forecasts a 9% growth in order volume for Q2 2025 and an 8% growth for FY 2025, driven by industry-wide subsidies, although it expects a significant decline in food delivery EBIT due to increased user subsidies [7]. - Instashopping is projected to achieve a 27% growth in order volume for Q2 2025, with a long-term outlook of becoming a key driver for on-demand growth and local commerce profits [7]. - Keeta's expansion is gaining momentum, particularly in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter Brazil contingent on infrastructure development. The report anticipates losses for Keeta but improving unit economics [7][11]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery Market - Meituan aims to maintain its GTV market share leadership by focusing on core user retention and diverse meal offerings. The company expects a 33% decline in food delivery EBIT for 2025 due to increased subsidies [7]. - The average daily order volume for food delivery is projected to grow from 70 million in 2024 to 77 million in 2025, with a slight decline in average order value [10]. Instashopping Growth - Instashopping is expected to see strong growth, with a projected GTV of Rmb 344 billion by 2025, reflecting a 24% year-on-year increase. The average daily order volume is anticipated to rise to 12.1 million [10]. - The report highlights that Instashopping's profitability is improving, with a small operating loss expected in Q2 2025 due to investments in marketing for shopping festivals [7]. Keeta Expansion - Keeta is experiencing strong growth in Saudi Arabia, with future expansion into Brazil dependent on infrastructure readiness. The report forecasts a loss of Rmb 10.4 billion for FY 2025 primarily due to Keeta's increased losses [7][11]. Financial Projections - Group revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 337.6 billion in 2024 to Rmb 382.5 billion in 2025, with a gross profit margin expected to stabilize around 38.4% [10]. - The report estimates adjusted EBIT for 2025 to be Rmb 30.5 billion, reflecting a decline from the previous year due to increased investments and subsidies [10].