Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leapmotor (09863.HK) [1] Core Insights - Leapmotor's Q4 2024 performance turned profitable with a net profit of 0.8 million yuan, a significant improvement from a loss of 9.5 billion yuan in Q4 2023 [7] - The company achieved a total revenue of 13.455 billion yuan in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 154.9% [7] - The sales volume in Q4 reached 121,000 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 118.4% [7] - The gross margin for Q4 was reported at 13.3%, exceeding expectations due to scale effects and cost management [7] - Leapmotor's B10 model received over 31,688 orders within 48 hours of its launch, indicating strong market demand [7] - The company plans to expand its overseas channels to over 550 by 2025, having already established 400 sales and service points [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 32.164 billion yuan in 2024 to 101.817 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 204.24 million yuan, and further increasing to 3.630 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from -2.11 yuan in 2024 to 2.72 yuan in 2027 [1]

上 市 公 司 汽车 2025 年 03 月 16 日 零跑汽车 (09863) ——24 年业绩&B10 预售价双超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 48.05 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 50.40/18.64 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 642.41 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,116.41 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -25% 25% 75% 125% HSCEI 零跑汽车 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [3][11]. Core Insights - Leapmotor achieved a revenue of RMB 32.16 billion in 2024, a 92% year-over-year increase, aligning with the forecast of at least RMB 30.5 billion [3][11]. - The company reported a narrowed net loss of RMB 2.82 billion for the year, with Q4 2024 showing a revenue of RMB 13.46 billion, up 155% year-over-year and a net profit of RMB 80 million, marking a positive turnaround [3][11]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for the year was 8.4%, up 7.9 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM reaching 13.3%, driven by product mix optimization and cost management [3][11]. - Leapmotor's strategic cooperation with Stellantis Financial Services aims to enhance financial services for distributors and consumers, while the company plans to expand its sales service network to 550 outlets by 2025 [3][11]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 55.3 billion, RMB 86.5 billion, and RMB 100 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 400 million, RMB 1.7 billion, and RMB 4.4 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 294,000 new cars delivered in 2024, a 104% increase year-over-year [3][11]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was approximately RMB 111,000, reflecting a year-over-year increase of RMB 16,000 [3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Leapmotor is positioned as a leading smart electric vehicle company in China, focusing on innovation and self-developed technology to create value for users [3][11]. - The company is expanding its product lineup, with the recent pre-sale of the B10 model, which features advanced intelligent driving capabilities at a competitive price point [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth opportunities in the RMB 100,000-200,000 economic smart car market, supported by the company's light asset overseas model in collaboration with Stellantis [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (零跑汽车) [1] Core Insights - Leap Motor's total sales for 2024 reached 293,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, up 92.0% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5] - The B10 model, which is Leap Motor's first intelligent vehicle, has a pre-sale price range of 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, and is expected to significantly boost sales with its competitive features [4] - The company is expected to further improve its gross margin to over 10% in 2025, driven by scale effects, product structure optimization, and cost reductions [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 92%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 57.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 77% [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 98 million yuan, with a significant turnaround from previous losses, and is expected to grow to 3.12 billion yuan by 2027 [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, turning positive for the first time [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In February, the company delivered 25,287 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 285.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Cumulatively, the company delivered over 50,000 vehicles in the first two months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 167.8%. The company anticipates continued sales growth driven by a strong new car cycle and overseas expansion through collaboration with Stellantis [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a delivery of 25,287 vehicles in February, marking a year-on-year growth of 285.1% and a slight month-on-month growth of 0.5%. The total deliveries for January and February reached over 50,000 vehicles, which is a 167.8% increase year-on-year [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about future sales growth, with a target of 500,000 vehicles for 2025. The upcoming launch of the B10 model on March 10 is expected to further boost sales. The company plans to introduce 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years, with three models from the B series planned for 2025 [6]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a strong new car cycle and competitive pricing to enhance sales. It has established a "1+N" channel development model in China, with 860 stores as of the end of 2024. Internationally, the company has 339 stores in Europe and aims to exceed 500 globally by 2025 [6]. Technological Advancements - The company is investing in advanced driving technology, planning to implement high-level driving functions based on a new architecture in the first half of 2025. The B10 model will be the first in its price range to feature laser radar for urban driving [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In February, the company delivered 25,287 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 285.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Cumulatively, the company delivered over 50,000 vehicles in the first two months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 167.8% [2][4][7]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a strong new car cycle domestically, with plans for the B10 model to be launched in March, which is anticipated to drive further sales growth. Additionally, the partnership with Stellantis is expected to facilitate overseas expansion and enhance global sales potential [2][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February deliveries reached 25,287 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 285.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. The cumulative delivery for January and February exceeded 50,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 167.8% [2][4][7]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 500,000 vehicles in 2025, with expectations for continued rapid growth driven by new vehicle launches and increased demand for high-priced models [7]. - The company plans to introduce 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years, with three models from the B series set to launch in 2025, priced between 100,000 to 150,000 RMB [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive advantage through technological innovation and maintaining a strong price-performance ratio. The domestic market is expected to see a rapid increase in sales, while the overseas strategy with Stellantis aims to leverage global resources for efficient market entry [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor focuses on self-research to create cost advantages, resulting in an excellent price-performance ratio, with products covering price ranges from 50,000 to 200,000 CNY. The company expects revenue of 13.5 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 13.3% [2][4]. - The B10 model received over 15,000 orders within one hour of its release, indicating strong market demand. The model is set to officially launch in April [6]. - The company achieved a net profit of 80 million CNY in Q4 2024, marking a significant improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in sales volume of 103.8% and revenue growth of 92.1% for the year [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Leap Motor's total sales reached 294,000 units, with revenue of 32.16 billion CNY, and a gross margin of 8.4%, which is an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year. In Q4 alone, sales were 121,000 units, with revenue of 13.46 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 155% [6]. - The company reported a gross profit of 1.78 billion CNY in Q4, with a gross margin of 13.3%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Product Development - The B10 model features the LEAP 3.5 technology architecture and includes advanced driving assistance capabilities. It offers two battery options with ranges of 510 km and 600 km, priced between 109,800 and 139,800 CNY [6]. - The company plans to launch 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years, with the B10 already released and two additional models from the B series planned for 2025 [6]. Market Strategy - Leap Motor is leveraging its technological strengths to maintain a competitive edge in the domestic market, while also expanding internationally through a partnership with Stellantis, which allows for a low-investment, flexible market entry strategy [6]. - The company has established a robust domestic distribution network with 860 stores and aims to expand its global presence, targeting over 500 stores by 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company achieved a significant revenue increase of 92% year-on-year, reaching 32.16 billion yuan, and narrowed its net loss to 2.82 billion yuan [7] - The gross margin reached a record high of 13.3% in Q4, driven by product mix optimization, cost management, and increased sales volume [7] - The company is expanding its global presence and has established over 400 sales service points, with plans to increase to 550 by 2025 [7] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.318 billion yuan, 86.536 billion yuan, and 100.033 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 72%, 56%, and 16% [6][10] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, with estimates of 368 million yuan, and grow to 4.824 billion yuan by 2027 [6][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 15.1% by 2027, reflecting ongoing operational efficiencies [6][10] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a significant absolute increase of 68.4% over the last three months [4] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle increased to approximately 111,000 yuan in Q4, indicating a positive trend in revenue per unit sold [7] Strategic Developments - The company has launched the B10 model, which features advanced driving technology at a competitive price point, receiving strong pre-sale interest [7] - Strategic partnerships, including collaboration with Stellantis, are expected to enhance the company's market position and growth potential [7]

深度报告： 零跑汽车系列 车中旭霞 点评报告： 《零跑汽车系列四：2024Q4单季度扭亏为盈,新车型B10开启预售》-20250314 《零跑汽车点评：与Stellantis达成深度合作，三季报及10月销量表现优秀》-20231105 核心观点 零跑汽车发布2024年年报，全年收入高速增长，其中2024年第四季度单季度扭亏为盈 零跑汽车2024全年实现营收321.64亿元（+92.06%），归母净利润-28.21亿元，大幅收窄。其中四季度单季度净利润转 正，盈利0.8亿元，系公司成立来首次单季度实现盈利。毛利率大幅改善，2024全年毛利率8.38%，2024年第四季度， 公司毛利率高达13.3%，创下公司成立以来的单季毛利率新高。2024年全年销量超29万辆；2024年平均单车营收10.95 万元，较以往有所下降，单车成本10.03万元，规模效应带来显著的降本。 发布Leap3.5架构，更加智能化、更高集成度 从LEAP 3.0到LEAP 3.5，实现了以中央域控为底座，对智驾、智能、电驱、电池、热管理和底盘等技术进行了全新升 级。LEAP3.5首次搭载于B10之上，带来了同级领先的端到端高阶智驾、大模型旗舰 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q4 2024, reporting a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter since its establishment, with a full-year revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, representing a 92.06% increase year-on-year [4][8] - The launch of the new model B10 has commenced pre-sales, showcasing competitive pricing and advanced features, particularly in the lidar-equipped versions [6][27] - The company has upgraded its technology with the release of the LEAP 3.5 architecture, enhancing smart driving capabilities and overall vehicle performance [20][23] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 92.06% [4][8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 8.38%, with Q4 achieving a record high of 13.3% [11][33] - The company sold over 293,300 vehicles in 2024, with a quarterly average of over 40,000 units sold [14][17] Sales and Revenue Projections - The company expects to achieve revenues of 58.3 billion yuan, 84.0 billion yuan, and 116.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 81.3%, 44.1%, and 38.5% [35] - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at -0.72 billion yuan, transitioning to 24.88 billion yuan in 2026 and 50.81 billion yuan in 2027 [35] Product Development and Market Strategy - The B10 model is positioned to compete strongly in the market with a starting price of 10.98 million yuan for the base model and up to 13.98 million yuan for the lidar version, emphasizing high cost-performance [6][28] - The company plans to expand its product lines with the introduction of multiple models in the B and C series, aiming for annual sales exceeding 500,000 units by 2025 [31][33] Valuation and Market Position - The reasonable valuation for the company is set between 56.16 and 60.84 Hong Kong dollars, reflecting a potential upside of 12.1% to 21.4% from the current stock price [35] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of over 10% with monthly sales of 40,000 units or more, supported by cost control and product structure optimization [33]