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Core Insights - Alibaba has launched significant upgrades to its Qwen AI app, enabling users to order food and book travel within the app, marking a strategic shift towards consumer-facing AI [1][2] Group 1: Upgrade Features - The new features allow users to complete tasks entirely within the AI chat interface, eliminating the need to switch between applications [1] - The upgrade integrates core Alibaba services such as Taobao, Alipay, Fliggy, and Amap into a unified AI interface, facilitating seamless transactions [4] - A new "Task Assistant" feature in beta can make real phone calls, process up to 100 documents simultaneously, and plan multi-stop travel itineraries [5] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - This upgrade follows a previous major enhancement to the Qwen app, indicating Alibaba's strategic pivot into consumer-facing AI, an area where it has previously lagged behind competitors like ByteDance and Tencent [2] - The Qwen app has surpassed 100 million monthly active users within two months of its public beta launch, reflecting strong consumer interest [5] - The expansion of the Qwen app is part of a broader competition in China's AI sector, where companies are striving to translate advanced language models into practical applications [6]

Core Insights - The latest version of the Qianwen APP now supports practical AI functionalities such as ordering food, booking flights, and reserving hotels [1][3] - Users can access these features by downloading the latest Qianwen APP and granting necessary permissions for platforms like Taobao and Alipay [3] - The AI assistant is currently in a gray testing phase, with full functionalities expected to be announced during Alibaba's upcoming "You Ask, We Answer" conference [18] Group 1: AI Functionalities - The Qianwen APP allows users to place food orders and book travel arrangements through natural language requests [1][3] - Users can specify preferences for food types, such as fast food or snacks, enhancing the personalization of the service [6] - The AI provides flight options from Hangzhou to Beijing, highlighting various schedules and price points, with a focus on high-value selections [9][11] Group 2: Market Implications - The integration of AI capabilities into the Qianwen APP signifies a significant step in merging AI technology with consumer services, potentially transforming it into a comprehensive AI assistant for daily tasks [18] - The upcoming Alibaba conference is anticipated to provide further updates on the AI functionalities, which could impact the competitive landscape in the AI and consumer service sectors [18]

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), forecasting FY2026-2028 revenues of 1,030.7 billion, 1,143.2 billion, and 1,251.8 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 91.6 billion, 135.8 billion, and 176.1 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 35,656 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 207.7 HKD, driven by AI in Alibaba Cloud and a steady reduction in losses in e-commerce despite industry challenges [1]. E-commerce Sector - The e-commerce industry is experiencing a slowdown, with a projected FY26Q3 CMR of 1,054.8 billion yuan (yoy +3.4%). The overall growth rate is declining due to high base effects and tax policy impacts, with online retail growth rates of 4.9% and 1.5% in October and November 2025 respectively, showing significant deceleration [1]. - The company has increased its commission rate by 0.6%, which has neutralized the positive impact on CMR, indicating continued pressure in the first half of FY26 due to high base effects [1]. Instant Retail - The estimated loss for the company's instant retail business in FY26Q3 is around 21.5 billion yuan, with an average loss per unit of 3.7 yuan, improved from the expected 4.0 yuan. The quarter shows a clear trend of reduced losses, with healthy market share and order structure [2]. - Taobao Flash, as a key high-frequency consumption scenario, plays a significant role in user retention and traffic within the ecosystem, with expectations for continued investment in maintaining market share and reducing losses in the medium to long term [2]. Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to achieve revenues of 434.9 billion yuan in FY26Q3 (yoy +37.0%), with external revenue accelerating significantly compared to Q2. The demand for AI cloud services continues to grow rapidly, supported by increased investments in AI applications [3]. - Alibaba Cloud, as the only full-stack AI cloud provider in China, is anticipated to benefit from a flywheel effect that drives both revenue and profit growth through enhanced demand for computing power and application scenarios [3]. Other Segments - The AIDC segment is projected to incur a loss of 1.89 billion yuan in FY26Q3, primarily due to increased seasonal losses from promotional activities. The segment is expected to continue its trend of reduced losses [4]. - Other segments are expected to incur a total loss of 7.12 billion yuan in FY26Q3, driven by increased spending on AI model training and applications. The company is enhancing its AI product offerings and increasing investments in consumer-facing AI applications [4]. AI Application Development - Alibaba's model development capabilities are strong, with ongoing enhancements in multi-modal and agent capabilities. Upcoming releases of major model updates are expected to further expand AI application scenarios [5]. - The company is optimistic about the potential breakthroughs in native AI applications and the empowerment of other business segments through AI advancements [5].

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), predicting revenue for FY2026-2028 to be 1,030.7 billion, 1,143.2 billion, and 1,251.8 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 91.6 billion, 135.8 billion, and 176.1 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 35,656 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 207.7 HKD, driven by AI in Alibaba Cloud and a steady reduction in losses in e-commerce despite industry challenges [1]. E-commerce Sector - The e-commerce industry is experiencing a slowdown, with a projected CMR of 1,054.8 billion yuan for FY26Q3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The overall growth rate has declined due to high base effects and policy impacts, with online retail growth rates of 4.9% and 1.5% in October and November 2025 respectively, showing significant month-on-month declines [2]. - The instant retail business is expected to incur losses of around 21.5 billion yuan in FY26Q3, with an average loss per order of 3.7 yuan. However, there is a notable improvement in user engagement and order structure, indicating a healthy trend. The Taobao flash sales are crucial for user retention and traffic within the ecosystem, and the company remains committed to maintaining market share [3]. Cloud Intelligence Group - The Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to achieve revenue of 434.9 billion yuan in FY26Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.0%. The growth is driven by AI demand, with significant investments in AI applications since Q3 2025. Alibaba Cloud, as the only full-stack AI cloud provider in China, is anticipated to benefit from a flywheel effect that boosts both revenue and profit [4]. Other Segments - The AIDC segment is projected to incur a loss of 1.89 billion yuan in FY26Q3 due to increased promotional spending. However, the segment is expected to continue its trend of reducing losses. Overall losses for other segments are estimated at 7.12 billion yuan, primarily due to increased spending on AI model training and new AI applications [5]. AI Application Development - Alibaba's strong capabilities in model development are being enhanced, with new models expected to be released throughout 2026. The company is focusing on expanding AI application scenarios, which is anticipated to empower other business areas within its ecosystem [6].

Core Insights - Alibaba's Qianwen App is set to revolutionize the way users interact with services, allowing for seamless transactions through natural language commands, marking the beginning of a new "service era" [4][6] - The competition among tech giants like Google, OpenAI, and Amazon for AI-driven e-commerce is intensifying, as they aim to establish the next generation of internet "super entry points" [6][27] Group 1: AI and E-commerce Integration - The integration of AI with e-commerce is transitioning from "discriminative recommendations" to "generative recommendations," fundamentally changing how consumers find and purchase products [8] - The Qianwen App exemplifies a significant shift where user intent can directly translate into transactions, potentially diminishing the relevance of traditional e-commerce platforms [16] - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, AI-driven commerce could reach $385 billion, accounting for 20% of total U.S. e-commerce, indicating a major shift in consumer spending habits [16] Group 2: Alibaba's Ecosystem and Competitive Advantage - Qianwen App leverages Alibaba's extensive ecosystem, integrating various high-frequency life scenarios, positioning itself as a central control hub for Alibaba's commercial empire [17][18] - The Qwen model behind the app has surpassed 600 million downloads and outperforms some metrics of GPT-5, benefiting from Alibaba's vast data resources accumulated over years [19] - Unlike competitors, Alibaba combines top-tier AI models with a robust infrastructure for e-commerce and logistics, creating a unique competitive moat [21] Group 3: Monetization Strategies - The shift in AI's narrative from mere conversation to actionable outcomes presents clear monetization pathways, particularly through direct integration with e-commerce [22] - Utilizing AI for direct transactions can significantly enhance conversion rates, as evidenced by a 60% increase in purchase conversion rates when using Amazon's AI assistant [23] - The entire industry is experiencing a surge in activity, with Alibaba's Qianwen App achieving over 100 million monthly active users, reminiscent of a gold rush in the tech space [25] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Major tech companies are engaged in a fierce competition for the "AI super entry point," with each attempting to secure their position in the evolving market [27] - Amazon is focusing on a closed ecosystem with its Rufus shopping assistant, while OpenAI and Google are also making strides to capture market share through innovative features [28][29] - ByteDance's Doubao is attempting to penetrate the market but faces challenges in integrating with Alibaba's ecosystem [30][31] Group 5: Future Implications - The upcoming launch of the Qianwen App is seen as a pivotal moment that could redefine the landscape of e-commerce and consumer interaction [32] - The urgency for market players is to identify and position themselves within this "service revolution," as missing out on AI-driven e-commerce could mean losing significant future opportunities [34] - The onset of the "service era" driven by AI is anticipated to bring transformative changes to consumer behavior and industry dynamics [35]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba will hold a launch event for its Qianwen App on January 15 at 10:00, showcasing how AI can "open the era of handling affairs" [1] Group 1: App Features - The Qianwen App allows users to directly order takeout and book flights [1] - For takeout orders, the app automatically applies coupons, and it handles situations where the order does not meet the minimum delivery requirement smoothly [1] - When booking flights, the app provides detailed comparison recommendations based on user needs and redirects to Taobao for final booking [1] - The app also offers recommendations for high-speed train tickets and hotels, integrating data from Fliggy and Gaode's street ranking, with a redirection to Taobao for bookings [1]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 香港恒生指数开盘跌0.1%，恒生科技指数跌0.55%。携程集团大跌近15%。昨日消息，市场监管总局依 法对携程集团有限公司立案调查。阿里巴巴开盘微跌0.06%。阿里巴巴10:00将召开千问APP发布会，见 证AI如何"开启办事时代"。 ...

Company and Industry Highlights - Easy Point World announced a stock trading suspension starting January 15, 2026, due to significant price fluctuations, with a stock price increase exceeding 100% over the past nine trading days [8] - Sunflower received a notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding an investigation into information disclosure violations, but stated that normal operations would not be significantly affected [8] - Five Minerals Development plans a major asset swap and cash purchase of assets from Five Minerals Holdings, with the transaction expected to constitute a significant asset restructuring [8] - Unigroup Guowei intends to acquire 100% equity of Ruineng Semiconductor through a share issuance and cash payment, while also raising supporting funds from specific investors [9] - International Medicine announced that its controlling shareholder pledged 75 million shares for financing, representing 12.17% of the shares held by the shareholder and 3.35% of the total share capital [9] - WuXi AppTec proposed a conditional cash acquisition offer for Dongyao Pharmaceutical at a price of HKD 4.00 per share, representing a premium of approximately 114.67% over the average closing price [10] - Ctrip Group is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation for suspected monopolistic behavior, and the company has stated it will cooperate with the investigation [10] - Alibaba is set to hold a product launch event for its Qianwen APP on January 15, 2026, showcasing new AI capabilities [11]

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 据报道，1月14日，阿里巴巴视频号预告，1月15日10:00将召开千问App发布会，见证AI如何"开启办事 时代"。此前，阿里核心管理层表示，将千问项目视为"AI时代的未来之战"。阿里计划将地图、外卖、 购物、健康等各类生活场景接入千问，赋予其强大的"办事"能力。2025年12月18日，阿里千问App接入 第一个阿里生态场景——高德，开始具备物理世界理解与行动能力。通过系统级对接，千问App不再只 是生成一段文字建议，而是能够调用高德地图、扫街榜等底层服务，即时生成包含推荐餐厅、购物、地 理位置及出行的可视化决策工具。 阿里淘宝闪购依托阿里云与通义大模型，已将AI能力全面产品化、工具化，用户通过手机接入阿里千 问App，可通过淘宝闪购调用地图、依托门店、闪购仓、品与AI超算能力，淘宝闪购让"对的商 品"在"对的时间"出现在"对的地点"，通过智能AI技术匹配数百万骑士、数百万门店、数以万计的商 品，让履约更快更准。 ...