新浪科技讯 1月13日晚间消息，阿里巴巴旗下源头厂货平台1688正式启动《AI加速·产业带生意抢跑计 划》，面向新入驻商家推出"三保"服务：保5万访客、保500个询盘、保300个订单。 据介绍，商家自入驻起至2026年12月31日，若保障量均未达标且符合活动条件，1688将发放6688元指定 数字营销红包。此外，对非主观故意导致的偶发履约问题，1688将降低处罚力度。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 新浪科技讯 1月13日晚间消息，阿里巴巴旗下源头厂货平台1688正式启动《AI加速·产业带生意抢跑计 划》，面向新入驻商家推出"三保"服务：保5万访客、保500个询盘、保300个订单。 据介绍，商家自入驻起至2026年12月31日，若保障量均未达标且符合活动条件，1688将发放6688元指定 数字营销红包。此外，对非主观故意导致的偶发履约问题，1688将降低处罚力度。 1688的数据显示，截至2025年12月30日，平台超100万家商家中，每天有超过29万商家在使用1688 AI产 品与技术。 自2025年10月1日推出全新商家会员产品"诚信通AI版"以来，1688平台上涌现出一批月销超10万元的"AI 原生店铺" ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending a 17-day rally, closing down 0.64% at 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.37% at 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96% at 3321.89 points [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 36.991 trillion, an increase of 541 billion from the previous day, marking a historical high [2] Market Dynamics - The market saw a significant divergence after a rapid rise to around 4200 points, which is considered a normal phenomenon [3] - The recent consistent upward trend led to a highly uniform market expectation, making a trend reversal likely when consensus is reached [4] - The financial sector, including major banks and oil companies, provided support to the market, mitigating further declines in the Shanghai Composite Index [4][7] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector, previously very active, saw a full retreat due to mixed performance among stocks and many companies reporting losses [5] - The AI application sector also exhibited significant divergence, with some stocks like Yidian Tianxia seeing a peak increase of 20% before closing at a 10% gain, while others performed poorly [5][6] - Precious metals and energy metals sectors showed resilience with notable rebounds, while the healthcare sector remained strong across various subfields [6] Capital Flow - There was a significant outflow of capital from the market, with a net outflow of 180 billion, affecting stocks like Goldwind Technology and Aerospace Electronic [5][6] - The market did not experience panic selling despite the adjustments, attributed to the financial sector's protective measures [7]

Core Insights - A new term "Alibaba Excavator" has gained popularity on overseas video platforms, referring to high-quality, high-performance small excavators available on Alibaba's B2B international platform, suitable for ordinary households [1][4] Group 1: Product Popularity - The term originated from a DIY video blogger named Frengen Engineering, who was impressed by a small excavator priced at $2,000 on Alibaba's international site, initially mistaking it for a toy [4] - Frengen's unboxing video garnered 4.15 million views, leading to widespread interest and inquiries about purchasing the excavator [4][6] Group 2: Manufacturing Insights - Frengen visited a factory in Shandong, China, where he witnessed a modern, almost fully automated excavator production line, highlighting the efficiency and organization of the manufacturing process [4] - The factory's ability to handle complex production through centralized processing and automation reflects the advancements in Chinese manufacturing [4] Group 3: Market Trends - There is a significant increase in overseas demand for small excavators, with a reported 53% growth in order volume on Alibaba's international platform for 2025 [6] - Overall, orders for construction machinery, including excavators, are expected to rise by 40% year-on-year in 2025, primarily targeting markets in the United States, Canada, Italy, France, and Germany [6] - By the second half of 2025, the intention of overseas buyers to purchase excavators from the international platform is projected to increase by 50% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Outperform" [1][6][4] Core Views - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year for 3QFY26, with an expected revenue of 285.8 billion yuan. The adjusted EBITA margin is projected to be 11.7%, reflecting a decline of 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][5] - The international digital commerce group and cloud intelligence revenue are expected to grow by 8% and 35% year-on-year, respectively, indicating continued acceleration in cloud revenue growth [3][10] - The report highlights the ongoing investment in AI and model training, which is expected to impact profitability in the short term but may enhance competitive positioning in the long run [11][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 3QFY26, Alibaba is projected to achieve a revenue of 285.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The adjusted EBITA is expected to be 33.5 billion yuan, down 39% year-on-year [3][5] - The adjusted EBITA margin is forecasted at 11.7%, a decrease of 7.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [5][3] Cloud Business - The cloud segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 35% year-on-year in FY26Q3, with a stable EBITA margin. The Qwen model is anticipated to enhance the company's market share in overseas markets [10][11] E-commerce Performance - The e-commerce group's GMV is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in FY26Q3, influenced by a weak retail environment. The report notes that the monetization rate is expected to align closely with GMV growth [19][21] - Instant retail is projected to incur losses of approximately 20-25 billion yuan, with a focus on maintaining market share through increased investment [21][22] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,030.7 billion, 1,149.4 billion, and 1,275.1 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.5%, 2.8%, and 1.4%, respectively, due to a soft consumer environment [4][23] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 are revised to 101.6 billion, 135.4 billion, and 165.5 billion yuan, with adjustments of -9.1%, -6.6%, and -3.7% respectively [4][23]

Group 1 - The term "Alibaba Excavator" has gained popularity on overseas video platforms, referring to high-quality, small excavators available on Alibaba's B2B international platform, which are suitable for ordinary households and priced at around $2,000 [1] - A video by overseas influencer Frengen showcasing the unboxing of a small excavator from Alibaba garnered over 4.15 million views, highlighting the product's superior quality and performance compared to local brands [1] - Frengen's visit to the Shandong Huayi factory, which produces these excavators, revealed an almost fully automated production line and efficient processing methods, attracting over 500,000 viewers to his factory tour video [1] Group 2 - The demand for high-quality Chinese machinery is increasing, with a projected 40% year-on-year growth in orders for excavators and other construction machinery on Alibaba's international platform by 2025 [2] - The primary export markets for these machines include the United States, Canada, Italy, France, and Germany, which were historically strong in machinery manufacturing [2] - By the second half of 2025, the intention of overseas buyers to purchase excavators from the international platform is expected to rise to 50% [2]

Core Insights - Alibaba has been recognized as a core asset in the digital economy for 2026, reflecting its significant role in China's digital landscape and its potential to participate in the AI infrastructure wave [1] - The company has undergone a strategic organizational restructuring, focusing on two main pillars: "AI + Cloud" technology platform and "Shopping + Lifestyle Services" consumer platform, indicating a shift from a diversified expansion model to a more focused approach [1][4] - Alibaba's leadership has stabilized after multiple adjustments since 2021, with a clear governance structure and a younger executive team, transitioning from an "expansion-oriented platform" to a "focused technology and consumer group" [1][6] Organizational and Governance Changes - The restructuring aims to enhance efficiency by reducing complexity, with clear roles assigned to key leaders: Daniel Zhang as Group CEO, Wu Yongming overseeing technology and cloud, and Jiang Fan leading the core consumer business [4] - The number of partners in the organization has decreased from 26 to 17, marking a significant shift in management and a focus on execution and business results [6] - The business teams are being rejuvenated, with new leadership in key areas to optimize organizational structure and enhance collaboration between e-commerce and local services [6] E-commerce Fundamentals - E-commerce remains Alibaba's core revenue driver, contributing approximately 58.4% of total group revenue, with the Chinese e-commerce group accounting for 56.6% [9] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) has shown an upward trend since FY25Q3, indicating a recovery in performance driven by improved take rates rather than just GMV growth [13] - The take rate is expected to increase from 4% to 4.6%, reflecting Alibaba's ability to restore profit margins even in a stable GMV environment [17] Instant Retail Strategy - Alibaba is investing in instant retail through platforms like Taobao Flash and Ele.me, which, while incurring short-term losses, are strategically important for long-term market positioning [18] - The company anticipates significant growth in the instant retail market, with projections indicating a potential market size of 3 trillion yuan by 2030 [20] AI and Cloud as Growth Engines - The AI and cloud segments are crucial for Alibaba's long-term valuation, with the global public cloud market expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025, driven by AI demand [21] - Alibaba Cloud holds about one-third of the Chinese public cloud market, with AI becoming a key growth driver, as evidenced by triple-digit revenue growth over eight consecutive quarters [22] - The company is entering a new capital expenditure expansion phase, with plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years [22] Redefining Core Asset Value - Alibaba is evolving from a pure e-commerce company to a hybrid enterprise with stable cash flows and high-growth technology businesses [24] - The company's overall valuation is projected to reach approximately 3.55 trillion yuan by 2026, with a potential stock price target of 200 HKD [27] - The strategic focus on AI infrastructure positions Alibaba as a key player in defining the digital economy in the AI era [27]

Core Insights - Alibaba has been selected as a core asset in the digital economy for 2026, reflecting its significant role in China's digital landscape and its potential in the AI infrastructure wave [2] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on two main pillars: "AI + Cloud" technology platform and "Shopping + Lifestyle Services" consumer platform [2][3] - Since 2021, Alibaba has made multiple organizational and executive adjustments, stabilizing its governance structure and strategic focus [4] Organizational and Governance Changes - The recent organizational restructuring aims to shift from a "complex and diverse" model to a "focused and efficient" execution model, centering around consumption and AI cloud [7] - Leadership roles have been clarified, with key figures like Daniel Zhang and Wu Yongming taking on specific responsibilities to enhance strategic execution [7][8] - The number of partners in the company has decreased from 26 to 17, marking a significant management transition and a new phase focused on execution efficiency [8][9] E-commerce Business Stability - E-commerce remains Alibaba's core pillar, contributing approximately 58.4% of total revenue as of FY26Q1, with the Chinese e-commerce group accounting for 56.6% [13] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) has shown an upward trend since FY25Q3, indicating a recovery in the core cash flow engine [17] - The improvement in CMR is attributed to product and structural optimizations rather than simple price increases, with a focus on service value [18][19] Instant Retail Strategy - Alibaba is investing in instant retail through platforms like Taobao Flash and Ele.me, which has led to significant order growth despite short-term losses [24][25] - The strategic importance of instant retail is highlighted by its potential to drive e-commerce synergy and defend market share, with projections indicating a market size of 3 trillion yuan by 2030 [26] AI + Cloud as a Growth Engine - The "AI + Cloud" segment is crucial for Alibaba's long-term valuation, with the global public cloud market expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025 [28] - Alibaba Cloud holds about one-third of the Chinese public cloud market, with AI becoming a key growth driver, evidenced by triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue over eight consecutive quarters [28][29] - The company is entering a new capital expenditure expansion cycle, with plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over the next three years [28] Redefining Core Asset Value - Alibaba is evolving from a pure e-commerce company to a hybrid enterprise with stable cash flow and high-growth technology businesses [31] - The company's overall valuation is projected to reach approximately 3.55 trillion yuan by 2026, with potential stock price targets around 200 HKD [34] - The strategic focus and organizational restructuring position Alibaba as a key player in defining the digital infrastructure of the AI era in China [39]

Core Insights - The narrative around the AI industry is undergoing significant scrutiny as massive capital expenditures collide with stagnant revenue growth, raising concerns about a potential "bubble" [1] - There is a growing gap between substantial investments in AI and the actual commercial returns, leading to a shift in focus from technological optimism to financial pragmatism [2] Group 1: Investment and Market Performance - In the U.S. market, NVIDIA's stock has reached new highs, reflecting investor enthusiasm for its AI chip business, while companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta show structural differences in stock performance [1] - In China, Alibaba's stock has hit multi-year highs, with Tencent and Baidu also showing active performance in AI-related stocks, indicating ongoing market interest in domestic AI applications and infrastructure [1] - Despite high valuations in the global capital markets for the AI industry, concerns about the sustainability of these valuations are becoming a focal point of discussion [1] Group 2: Profitability Challenges in ToB AI - The global enterprise AI market is experiencing an asymmetric cycle of investment and profitability, with major players like Amazon and Google facing challenges as they expand [3] - Amazon's AWS is projected to have a capital expenditure of $125 billion in 2025, primarily for AI data center expansion, but its profit margins are under pressure due to rising operational costs [4][6] - AWS's revenue and operating income showed signs of recovery in Q3 2025, but profitability remains sensitive to capital expenditure and customer purchasing cycles [7] Group 3: Google Cloud's Growth and Challenges - Google Cloud has positioned AI at the core of its growth strategy, achieving significant revenue growth, but concerns about the mismatch between capital expenditure and returns persist [8][10] - Despite high ROI cases reported, the majority of AI projects struggle to achieve measurable returns, with only 25% of enterprise AI projects meeting initial ROI goals [14][15] Group 4: ToC AI Market Dynamics - The consumer AI segment faces challenges in converting user growth into revenue, with only 5% of AI projects yielding measurable benefits [16] - OpenAI's ChatGPT is projected to have annual revenue exceeding $20 billion in 2025, but its operational costs are rising exponentially, leading to significant losses [17] - The user base for ChatGPT has grown rapidly, but the conversion rate to paid subscriptions remains low, highlighting a disconnect between user acquisition and monetization [20][23] Group 5: Commercialization and Long-term Perspectives - The current investment-return imbalance in AI is seen as a phase rather than a failure of technology, with the potential for long-term value creation through efficiency improvements across industries [25][26] - The AI industry's commercial path is expected to follow a "J-curve," indicating that current losses are part of a necessary accumulation phase before significant returns can be realized [26][27] - The ongoing challenges in both ToB and ToC segments are contributing to the narrative of an "AI bubble," but the long-term potential of AI technology remains intact [27][28]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.9% to close at 26,877.42 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.11%, and the State-Owned Enterprises Index rising by 0.71% [1][7]. Sector Performance - **Technology Stocks**: Mixed performance observed, with Alibaba and Bilibili both rising over 3%, while Kuaishou fell over 2%, and Xiaomi and Baidu dropped over 1% [1][7]. - **Biopharmaceutical Sector**: Strong performance noted, particularly with WuXi AppTec rising over 8%. The upcoming JPMorgan Healthcare Conference is expected to act as a catalyst for the innovative drug market, with expectations for updates on the operational progress of Chinese innovative drug companies [3][9]. - **Gold Stocks**: Continued upward trend, with China Gold International increasing over 7%. Citigroup has aggressively raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, predicting gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver $100 per ounce within the next three months, driven by geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies [3][9]. - **Commercial Aerospace Sector**: A pullback was observed, with Goldwind Technology declining over 9%. Recent shareholder sell-offs have contributed to market volatility. However, significant breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology in China are expected to reshape the cost structure of the aerospace industry, benefiting upstream companies in aerospace manufacturing, new materials, and satellite applications [3][9]. New Listings - Three new stocks were listed today, with Zhaoyi Innovation rising over 37%, BBSB International up over 11%, and Hongxing Cold Chain increasing by 0.33% [4][9].

据国是直通车，1月13日，阿里巴巴旗下源头厂货平台1688启动《AI加速·产业带生意抢跑计划》，面向 新入驻商家推出"三保"服务：保5万访客、保500个询盘、保300个订单。商家自入驻起至2026年12月31 日，若保障量均未达标且符合活动条件，1688将发放6688元指定数字营销红包。此外，对非主观故意导 致的偶发履约问题，1688将降低处罚力度。1688还提出，2026年将让AI成为商家生意增长的核心引 擎。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...