Market Overview - On December 8, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.23%, closing at 25,765.36 points, while southbound funds through the Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 1.54 billion [1][3] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on December 8 was HKD 94.31 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.54 billion. Specifically, the Shanghai Stock Connect had a trading volume of HKD 56.20 billion and a net buy of HKD 1.11 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a trading volume of HKD 38.11 billion and a net buy of HKD 0.43 billion [1][3] Active Stocks - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, Alibaba-W had the highest trading volume at HKD 3.564 billion, followed by SMIC and Xiaomi Group-W with trading volumes of HKD 2.962 billion and HKD 2.618 billion, respectively [1][2] - For net buy amounts, SMIC led with a net inflow of HKD 666 million, with its stock price increasing by 2.94%. Conversely, Hua Hong Semiconductor had the highest net sell amount at HKD 221 million, with its stock price rising by 4.47% [1][2] Shenzhen Stock Connect Highlights - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Alibaba-W also topped the trading volume with HKD 3.583 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W and Tencent Holdings with trading volumes of HKD 2.324 billion and HKD 1.980 billion, respectively [2] - The highest net buy was for Xiaomi Group-W at HKD 972 million, despite its stock price declining by 0.47%. Tencent Holdings experienced the largest net sell at HKD 796 million, with its stock price down by 0.82% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has declined significantly, reflecting increasing bearish sentiment in the market, despite strong quarterly earnings growth [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart opened lower and closed at 201 HKD, with a decline of 8.22% [1][2] - The short-selling amount for Pop Mart has surged from 241 million HKD to 623 million HKD since December 2 [1][2] Group 2: Earnings Report - Pop Mart reported a remarkable third-quarter performance, with overall revenue increasing by 245%-250% year-on-year [1][2] - Revenue from the Chinese market grew by 185%-190% year-on-year, while overseas market revenue surged by 365%-370% year-on-year [1][2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley's recent report indicates that Pop Mart is transitioning from explosive growth over the past two years to sustainable growth, with a significant slowdown expected in Labubu's revenue growth by 2026 [1][2] - Analyst Hu Meilin from Bernstein expressed concerns that the enthusiasm surrounding the Labubu toy series is reminiscent of the 1990s "Beanie Babies" cycle, suggesting limited upside potential for the stock due to doubts about the next sales growth driver [1][2]

12月8日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）港股盘中股价跌超9%，引发市场关注。截至收盘，泡泡玛特港股报 200.40港元/股，跌8.49%，总市值为2691亿港元，较上个交易日蒸发约250亿港元，股价较8月高点回落 超40%。 | 日期 | 卖空量 卖空额 卖空均价 | | --- | --- | | 305.12万 6.23亿 204.020 | 12-08 | | 161.70万 3.51亿 217.340 | 12-05 | | 155.26万 3.32亿 214.040 | 12-04 | 德银12月1日研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底 月均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热 度消退的前兆。 当前，市场看空泡泡玛特的情绪正持续升温。同花顺iFinD数据显示，自12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空股 数从111.06万股升至305.12万股，卖空金额从2.41亿港元升至6.23亿港元，飙升158%。其中12月8日，泡 泡玛特卖空金额较上一交易日大幅飙升77%，未平仓卖空股数超8400万股。此前，11月21 ...

此前，摩根士丹利报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可持续增 长"阶段。该机构预测，泡泡玛特2026年Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非 Labubu IP的多元化驱动。摩根士丹利将泡泡玛特目标价由382港元下调至325港元，以反映全球消费板 块的不利轮动等因素，亦从侧面反映出市场对潮玩行业高增长可持续性的担忧。 部分机构仍看好泡泡玛特的发展前景。近日，浦银国际发布研报称，作为全球潮玩行业的领先企业，泡 泡玛特拥有稳固的基本面与高确定性的长期增长逻辑。当前该公司估值水平已进入具备较高吸引力的区 间。 华源证券认为，黑色星期五、感恩节、圣诞节接踵而来，海外销售旺季将至，泡泡玛特IP影响力有望持 续释放。华源证券表示，泡泡玛特老IP持续运营，新IP逐步发力，产品形态从盲盒、毛绒拓展至可动玩 偶、饰品等，带动品牌影响力持续破圈。公司作为中国潮玩行业的头部企业，具备IP玩具全产业链运营 能力，通过出众的IP创造、运营能力及渠道端多样的消费者触达能力持续高质量发展，且伴随公司海外 业务逐步扩大、产品海外影响力不断提升，有望打开第二增长极。华源证券持续看好公司在潮 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing trend of IP collaborations in various consumer sectors, highlighting their potential to enhance brand growth and product upgrades while connecting with consumers' emotional values [1][2][17]. Group 1: IP Collaborations - The box office for "Zootopia 2" has surpassed 3 billion, showcasing the popularity of IP collaborations this year, which include partnerships with brands like McDonald's, Yili, and Uniqlo [1]. - IP collaborations have permeated daily life, influencing various aspects of consumption, from food to fashion and even pet products [1]. - Brands are increasingly recognizing the importance of emotional value in consumer preferences, making IP collaborations a strategic direction to meet market demands [1][2]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The concept of "emotional value" and "pleasurable consumption" has gained traction among the new generation of consumers, who prioritize emotional satisfaction over mere utility [2][15]. - The "Guzzi economy" is experiencing explosive growth, with the market expected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 40.63% [5]. - The number of pan-anime users in China is projected to reach 503 million by 2024, indicating a growing mainstream acceptance of previously niche markets [5]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - Brands like Luckin Coffee have successfully integrated IP collaborations into their marketing strategies, conducting multiple partnerships each month to drive traffic and sales [5]. - The collaboration between brands and popular IPs, such as the partnership between "Stinky Treasure" and "Zootopia 2," has generated significant consumer engagement and excitement, leading to viral social media interactions [10][12]. - Emotional connections with consumers are becoming crucial for brands, as seen in "Stinky Treasure's" efforts to engage with young audiences through interactive marketing and product innovation [12][14]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The rise of products that provide strong emotional value, such as collectibles and immersive experiences, is reshaping consumer spending habits, moving from practical to emotional consumption [15][16]. - The success of brands like Pop Mart, which saw a 204.4% year-on-year revenue increase, illustrates the potential of emotional connection and cultural recognition in driving sales [15]. - Companies are increasingly challenged to not only deliver quality products but also to provide additional value that resonates with consumers' emotional needs [19].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart, once highly favored by the market, is currently facing a wave of short selling, with its stock price dropping significantly from its peak earlier this year [2][9]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of today, Pop Mart's stock price is HKD 200.4, down 8.49% from the previous trading day, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 269.1 billion [2][9]. - The stock reached a peak price of HKD 339.8 in August, indicating a decline of 41% from its highest point, with a market value loss of HKD 187 billion [2][9]. Group 2: Reasons for Decline - Morgan Stanley has revised its revenue growth forecast for Pop Mart for 2026 from 30% to 18%, citing a near 35% penetration rate in the Chinese blind box market, which, along with intensified competition, is expected to suppress growth [3][10]. - The core IP "Labubu" has lost its scarcity, as the company increased its monthly production from 10 million to 50 million units, leading to a rapid decline in secondary market premiums [3][10]. - Concerns about a slowdown in overseas sales growth are emerging, with a projected decline in U.S. sales growth from 1,200% to below 500% during the Black Friday period [10][11]. Group 3: Institutional Actions and Market Sentiment - Institutional investors have lowered their valuations, with Morgan Stanley reducing its target price from HKD 382 to HKD 325, and Deutsche Bank setting a "hold" target price of HKD 228 [4][13]. - Since December 2, short selling in Hong Kong stocks has surged by 158%, with the short selling volume reaching 6.3% of the float, the highest level since August 2023 [4][13]. - Market sentiment has been affected by profit-taking, as the stock has corrected approximately 40% since its peak in late August, leading to a sell-off as investors seek to realize gains amid uncertainties regarding the transition from a single IP to multiple IPs [5][13]. Group 4: Executive Selling - Despite the significant drop in stock price, Pop Mart's executives and early shareholders are entering a period of intensive selling, with total cashing out exceeding HKD 6 billion [6][14]. - The founder and chairman, Wang Ning, plans to sell 21.7 million shares at HKD 71.98 each, cashing out approximately HKD 1.56 billion, reducing his stake from 50.34% to 48.73% [6][14]. - Other executives have also sold shares, with the COO cashing out HKD 151 million and the overseas business head cashing out HKD 89.97 million [6][14].

Core Insights - On December 8, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 3.564 billion, 2.962 billion, and 2.618 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Tencent Holdings (00700) led the trading volume, with amounts of 3.583 billion, 2.324 billion, and 1.980 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.564 billion with a net buying amount of +412 million [2] - SMIC (00981) recorded a trading amount of 2.962 billion with a net buying amount of +666 million [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 2.618 billion with a net buying amount of +201 million [2] - Pop Mart (09992) achieved a trading amount of 2.348 billion with a net buying amount of +302 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 1.531 billion with a net buying amount of +33.99 million [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.583 billion with a net selling amount of -515 million [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 2.324 billion with a net buying amount of +972 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 1.980 billion with a net selling amount of -796 million [2] - SMIC (00981) achieved a trading amount of 1.623 billion with a net selling amount of -199 million [2] - Pop Mart (09992) had a trading amount of 1.282 billion with a net buying amount of +130 million [2]

自12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空股数从111.06万股增至161.70万股，同期卖空金额也从2.41亿港元大幅上 升至6.23亿港元。 12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，一路低走，截至收盘跌近8.5%，为六周多来最大跌幅；近一个月累计跌 超14%，与8月高点相比跌约40%，市值蒸发超1800亿港元。 市场看空情绪持续升温。港交所12月8日披露数据显示，截至收盘，泡泡玛特沽空金额为10.92亿港元， 较上一交易日上升210.58%，较最近30个交易日均值上升47.35%；沽空比率为19.23%，较近30个交易日 沽空比率均值的偏离幅度达-17.33%。 据智通财经报道，德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只 大幅提升至年底月均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规 模量产往往是热度消退的前兆。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 此前11月13日晚，泡泡玛特Labubu新品上市，热度明显下降，其在二级市场的溢价已明显回落。其中 隐藏款溢价幅度缩水超50%，而3.0及4.0常规款在二手平台售价已跌破官方零售价。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][40]. Core Views - The media sector is anticipated to experience a rebound, particularly in gaming and AI applications, with significant growth potential in these areas. The report emphasizes the importance of both sharpness and allocation in the current market environment [3][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as entering a favorable valuation zone, with specific companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong recommended for investment [6][16]. - The film market is recovering, with the total box office reaching approximately 437.06 billion yuan, which is about 78% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index fell by 3.86% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.28%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 5.14% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 19,595.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17,850.96 billion yuan [3]. Gaming Market Insights - Tencent's products dominate the iOS gaming market, with titles like "Peace Elite" and "Love and Deep Space" performing strongly [16]. - Upcoming game releases include "Rust" and "PUBG: BLACK BUDGET," which are expected to generate significant interest [18]. Film Market Overview - The film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of nearly 23 billion yuan within six days, with projections suggesting it could help the total annual box office exceed 500 billion yuan [27]. - The total box office for the year has reached 437.06 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 78% compared to 2019 [19][22]. Important News and Company Announcements - The establishment of the first micro-short drama export base in Shanghai marks a significant development in the media industry [27]. - Tencent's Magic Cube Studio celebrated its 15th anniversary, announcing major updates for several IP titles, indicating ongoing innovation in the gaming sector [28].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock experienced a significant decline, dropping nearly 8.5% on December 8, marking its largest drop in over six weeks, with a cumulative decline of over 14% in the past month and approximately 40% from its August peak, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 180 billion HKD [2]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains bearish, with short-selling amounts reaching 1.092 billion HKD on December 8, an increase of 210.58% from the previous trading day and 47.35% higher than the average of the last 30 trading days; the short-selling ratio stood at 19.23%, deviating -17.33% from the average of the last 30 trading days [2]. - The number of shares short-sold increased from 1.1106 million to 1.6170 million since December 2, with short-selling amounts rising from 241 million HKD to 623 million HKD during the same period [2]. Recent Trading Data - Recent trading data shows a significant increase in short-selling amounts and ratios over the past ten days, with December 8 recording a short-selling amount of 1.092 billion HKD and a short-selling ratio of 19.23%, alongside a closing price of 200.40 HKD [3]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart's overall revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to surge by 245%-250% year-on-year, driven by the launch of new products like Mini Labubu and SP Insomnia Theater, along with revenue recognition from pre-sales in Q2, which directly contributed to performance growth [3]. - The core IP Labubu continues to maintain global popularity, serving as a key growth driver, although the stock price has been on a downward trend before and after the earnings disclosure [3]. Product Market Dynamics - Following the launch of the Labubu new products on November 13, market enthusiasm has noticeably declined, with secondary market premiums dropping by over 50%, and regular versions 3.0 and 4.0 selling below official retail prices on secondary platforms [4]. - Deutsche Bank's latest report indicates that Pop Mart plans to significantly increase Labubu production capacity from 10 million units in the first half of the year to an average of 50 million units per month by the end of the year, warning that large-scale production often signals a decline in demand for brands reliant on unique design and scarcity [4].