Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [10] Core Views - The successful commissioning of the Simandou project and the gradual emergence of a relaxed iron ore trend are significant developments. Despite limited actual supply-demand impact on iron ore by 2025, the project's capacity of 120 million tons and the push for "anti-involution" suggest that global iron ore demand may not see significant growth. The trend towards relaxation in iron ore supply is becoming clearer [2][6] - Current global iron ore cash costs are around $90 per ton, and as the surplus increases, iron ore prices may gradually return to cost support levels. In the short term, high iron output and strong macroeconomic growth expectations at year-end support iron ore prices. However, as Simandou's capacity ramps up next year, prices may begin a smoother downward trend after the seasonal peak in April [2][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The seasonal effect has deepened, with apparent steel demand continuing to weaken. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 3.13% year-on-year and 0.82% month-on-month. The average daily pig iron output increased to 2.3688 million tons, up by 2.66 thousand tons per day [4] - Steel inventory continues to decrease, maintaining a median level. Total steel inventory decreased by 1.88% week-on-week and increased by 20.48% year-on-year. Prices for rebar and hot-rolled steel have also seen slight declines [4] Section 2: Simandou Project - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea officially commenced operations on November 11, with a total investment exceeding $20 billion. The project includes over 600 kilometers of newly built multi-purpose railway and supporting port facilities, with an annual export capacity of up to 120 million tons [5][6] Section 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the main trading theme in the steel sector may be "iron ore concessions + the realization of steel production cuts under anti-involution." The profit distribution in the black industry chain shows that iron ore occupies a significant share, indicating ample room for concessions. Major steel companies like Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel may see further performance elasticity due to cost relaxation and resilient steel sales prices [7][27]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating a recovery in profitability and a focus on supply-side reforms [4][29]. Core Insights - The steel industry has shown significant improvement in profitability during the first three quarters of 2025, with total profits reaching 96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 190% [4][6]. - The report highlights the implementation of supply-side reforms aimed at optimizing the structure of steel products and controlling production capacity [4][13]. - The demand for steel is expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades and AI transformation, with a focus on high-end product development [4][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Profit Recovery and Supply-Side Policies - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of key steel enterprises was 4.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%, while total profits reached 96 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery [4][6]. - The production of crude steel was 746 million tons, down 2.9% year-on-year, while steel consumption fell by 5.7% [4][6]. - The report notes that the sales profit margin increased to 2.1%, up 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. 2. Fund Holdings in the Steel Sector - As of September 30, 2025, the number of fund holdings in the steel sector increased to 41, with a total holding value of 21.99 billion yuan, up 22.44% year-on-year [4][17]. - The report indicates that the steel sector's holdings accounted for 0.50% of total fund holdings, with a notable increase in the number of holdings during the first and third quarters [4][17]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector that are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, as well as companies in the special steel sector with strong fundamentals [4][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a high prosperity trend despite fluctuating interest rate expectations [3][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the broader market indices, with significant year-to-date gains across various metal categories, particularly energy metals and precious metals [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical developments will continue to influence metal prices positively, particularly for gold and silver [4][22]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.15 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 77.71%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 by 60.09 percentage points [8]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Precious metals saw a price increase, with gold prices rising by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [14]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, including copper, aluminum, and lithium, indicating a mixed performance with some metals experiencing price increases while others faced declines [15][17]. - Key companies in the industry are highlighted with their respective valuations, showing a range of price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [19][20]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, reflecting growing investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 78.3, suggesting potential shifts in demand dynamics between these two precious metals [23]. Industrial Metals - The report discusses the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in domestic social inventory and fluctuations in production rates [28]. - For aluminum, the report indicates an increase in downstream processing rates and a tightening supply-demand balance, suggesting a positive price outlook [42][44]. Small Metals - The report highlights the tight supply conditions for cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium prices continue to rise due to strong demand in energy storage [9][17].

Core Points - The third round of the fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections has been fully launched, approved by the Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council [1] - Eight central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams have been formed to conduct routine inspections in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, as well as five central enterprises [1] - Special inspections for the Grand Canal ecological environment protection will be conducted in eight provinces, focusing on cultural protection and ecological environment [1] Group 1 - Eight central inspection teams will conduct inspections for one month in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, and two weeks for special inspections in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shandong, and Henan [1] - The inspection teams are led by designated leaders for each region and enterprise, ensuring a structured approach to the inspections [1] - The inspections aim to enhance the effectiveness of ecological and environmental protection efforts and address issues in a systematic manner [2] Group 2 - The inspection teams will adhere to the principles of the "two establishments," enhancing awareness and confidence while maintaining a problem-oriented approach [2] - Contact information will be established for receiving reports related to ecological and environmental protection during the inspection period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8][9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a strong performance this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 30%, ranking 7th among Shenwan's primary industries [2]. - The report highlights that the average daily pig iron production has increased to 236.9 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased [11]. - The total inventory of steel has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.7%, indicating a tightening supply [23]. - Apparent steel consumption has shown a slight decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% [52]. - The report notes that iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil [49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Steel Index closed at 1,999.70 points, up 0.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.91 percentage points [1][94]. Supply Analysis - Daily pig iron production increased by 2.8 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased, particularly in rebar [11][17]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 steel mills is reported at 88.8%, reflecting a slight increase [17]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of five major steel products decreased to 1,061.4 million tons, down 1.3% week-on-week [25]. - Steel mill inventories also saw a decline, with a 2.9% reduction [25]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, with rebar demand dropping more significantly [40][52]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel was 100 thousand tons, reflecting a 3.9% increase [41]. Price and Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising to 121.2, up 0.1% week-on-week [75]. - Current costs for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are reported at 3,518 yuan/ton and 3,744 yuan/ton, respectively, with negative margins [75][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuations [3][4]. Core Insights - The Ximangdu Iron Mine has officially commenced production, with a total designed capacity of 120 million tons per year, expected to gradually ramp up over the next 2-3 years. This high-quality iron ore resource is anticipated to lower iron ore prices, alleviating pressure on steel mill profits [3][4]. - Steel prices have decreased, with notable declines in rebar and medium plates, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices remained stable [1][9]. - Steel production has decreased, with a total output of 8.34 million tons for major steel products, down by 223,600 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory also fell by 136,300 tons [2][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,170 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price changes, with hot-rolled at 3,280 CNY/ton and cold-rolled at 3,770 CNY/ton remaining stable [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products was 8.34 million tons, with rebar production specifically reduced to 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory decreased to 10.602 million tons [2][6]. Profitability - Steel margins have declined, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 29 CNY/ton, 37 CNY/ton, and 39 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also saw a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market positioning and expected performance, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in various segments such as special steel and pipe materials [3][4].

Group 1 - The third round of the fifth batch of central ecological environment protection inspections has been fully launched, with eight inspection teams established to oversee Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, as well as five central enterprises [1] - The inspection teams will focus on ecological environment protection and the cultural heritage of the Grand Canal during their inspections in the specified provinces [1] - The inspection period for the regular inspections is set for one month, while the special inspections for the Grand Canal will last approximately two weeks [1] Group 2 - The inspection teams are guided by the principles of enhancing awareness of the "two establishments," maintaining the "four consciousnesses," and ensuring the "two safeguards" [2] - The inspections will adhere to a problem-oriented approach, emphasizing the need for precision, legality, and effectiveness in advancing the inspection work [2] - During the inspection period, each team will establish contact numbers and postal addresses to handle reports related to ecological environment protection from the inspected entities [3]

Group 1 - The third round of the fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections has been fully launched, approved by the Central Committee and the State Council [1] - Eight routine inspection teams will be formed to conduct inspections in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, as well as five central enterprises including China Huadian Corporation, State Energy Investment Group, Ansteel Group, China Baowu Steel Group, and China Coal Energy Group, with an inspection duration of one month [1] - Special inspections for ecological environment protection along the Grand Canal will be conducted in eight provinces and municipalities, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, with an inspection duration of approximately two weeks [1] Group 2 - The Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Work Leading Group emphasizes the need to advance inspections and corrections in a precise, scientific, and lawful manner, prohibiting a "one-size-fits-all" approach [1] - The group also aims to simplify inspection reception arrangements to effectively reduce the burden on grassroots levels [1]

Core Insights - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has officially commenced operations, with the first shipment of over 200,000 tons of iron ore expected to depart from the Maribaya port in November [1][5] - The project is a significant collaboration between China and Guinea, with a total investment exceeding $20 billion, and aims to achieve an annual export capacity of up to 120 million tons of iron ore upon full production [3][4] Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project is located in southeastern Guinea and is recognized as one of the largest and highest-quality mining projects globally, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons and an average iron content of over 65% [3] - The project includes the construction of over 600 kilometers of new multi-purpose railway and associated port facilities, which are essential for the transportation of iron ore [3][4] Key Participants - Major stakeholders in the project include the Guinean government, Winning Consortium, China Baowu Steel Group, Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), and Simfer [3][4] - The project is divided into two main blocks: the northern block (Blocks 1 and 2) led by China Baowu and Winning Consortium, and the southern block (Blocks 3 and 4) managed by Simfer, with each block having an annual production capacity of 60 million tons [3][4] Infrastructure and Development - The project employs "Chinese standards, design, construction, and equipment" to efficiently meet production goals, with various Chinese state-owned enterprises involved in the construction and design processes [4] - The Maribaya port and the railway infrastructure are designed to handle an annual transportation capacity of 120 million tons, facilitating the export of iron ore [4] Economic Impact - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the project could increase Guinea's GDP by over 25%, while also providing significant employment opportunities for the local population [5]

Market Overview - On November 14, the steel sector declined by 0.35% compared to the previous trading day, with Hangzhou Steel leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Chongqing Steel (601005) saw a closing price of 1.64, up 3.14% with a trading volume of 3.67 million shares and a transaction value of 598 million [1] - Shandong Steel (600022) closed at 69.1, up 2.42% with a trading volume of 2.02 million shares and a transaction value of 341 million [1] - Hangzhou Steel (600126) closed at 9.05, down 2.69% with a trading volume of 822,300 shares and a transaction value of 752 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel sector experienced a net outflow of 187 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 184 million [2] - Major stocks like Wujin Stainless Steel (603878) had a net outflow of 40.17 million from main funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 41.04 million [3] - Huazhong Steel (000932) experienced a net inflow of 31.31 million from main funds but a net outflow of 23.20 million from retail investors [3]