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非银金融行业投资策略周报:券商与保险基本面持续向好,关注非银板块配置价值-20260201
GF SECURITIES· 2026-02-01 06:10
Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, shows continued improvement in fundamentals, highlighting the investment value of the non-bank sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 31, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 4117.95 points, down 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14205.89, down 1.62% [10] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09% [10] - The CITIC II Securities Index fell by 0.71%, while the CITIC II Insurance Index rose by 5.41% [10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [15] - As of January 30, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.81%, down 2 basis points from the previous week, indicating a cautious risk preference in the equity market [12] - The insurance sector is benefiting from a stable long-term interest rate environment and an upward trend in the equity market, which is expected to drive performance growth in Q1 2026 [15] Securities Sector - The securities market is showing positive core indicators, with a projected high growth in Q1 2026, supported by improved trading volume and margin financing [16] - As of January 30, 2026, 17 brokerages reported a total net profit of 1153.44 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60.27% [19] - The average daily trading volume of all A and B shares reached 2.90 trillion CNY, a 144.26% increase compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a significant rise in market activity [21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is expected to expand business opportunities, with the first three products anticipated to raise over 13 billion CNY [27] - The REITs initiative aims to activate existing commercial real estate assets and enhance the supply of capital market products, indicating strong market demand [27] - The insurance sector is advised to focus on companies like China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [15]
公募基金去年四季度加码非银金融,保险、券商股获青睐
Huan Qiu Wang· 2026-02-01 03:00
与有色金属、通信等板块受成长型基金驱动不同,非银金融此轮增持主要由价值型基金主导。分析指出,保险行 业兼具稳定分红与长期成长性,在权益市场回暖和定存资金转移的背景下,其配置价值进一步凸显。2025年四季 度,保险指数累计上涨23.42%,显著跑赢银行股和券商股。中国平安、中国太保等龙头因资产负债表优化、新业 务价值回升,成为基金超配的核心标的。机构认为,经过前期估值调整,保险板块的结构性机会大于市场整体波 动,尤其是具备渠道优势和产品创新能力的头部公司,有望持续受益于居民财富配置转型。 券商板块的加仓则呈现"强者恒强"特征。数据显示,公募基金对中信证券的持仓市值比例从0.1687%提升至 0.3132%,华泰证券从0.1579%增至0.1989%,而中小券商的增持幅度相对有限。市场人士指出,全面注册制深 化、衍生品业务扩容等政策预期,叠加权益市场活跃度提升,头部券商凭借资本实力和综合服务能力,更易获得 超额收益。不过,尽管四季度获得加仓,非银金融整体仍处于低配状态,当前仓位较2006年以来平均水平仍有较 大差距,位于30%的历史分位,后续增配空间或受市场风险偏好和行业基本面改善程度影响。 【环球网财经综合报道 ...
中信证券:太空光伏并非炒作 正在进入规模化部署的前夜 远期市场空间有望增长30倍以上
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-02-01 01:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that space photovoltaic technology is not a hype but is on the verge of large-scale deployment, driven by real demand, engineering implementation, and a commercial loop [1] - The explosion of space photovoltaic technology is attributed to the new demands of "space computing power + AI" and the ongoing competition for low Earth orbit resources globally [1] - China's accelerated deployment of satellite constellations is primarily for strategic orbit occupation, followed by building communication capabilities, and finally enhancing computing power and AI [1] Group 2 - It is projected that the number of satellite launches will increase from 5,000 to 50,000 between 2025 and 2040, with gallium arsenide batteries dominating in the short term at an 80% penetration rate [2] - As costs decrease and technology advances, the penetration rates of P-type HJT and perovskite/silicon tandem batteries are expected to rise, with perovskite/silicon tandem batteries projected to reach a 60% penetration rate in the long term [2] - The overall market space for photovoltaic cells in the satellite sector is estimated to reach 328.8 billion yuan, representing a growth of over 30 times compared to the short-term market space [2]
中信证券:AI芯片架构改革推动液冷市场空间快速成长 关注结构性投资机会
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-01 00:04
中信证券发布研报,在AI算力需求与芯片功耗持续攀升的背景下,AI加速芯片的TDP已突破风冷散热的 物理极限,全球各大云服务商(CSP)正明确将液冷定为下一代架构的默认标准,这种结构性转型将推动 液冷市场空间的快速成长。国内厂商已实现全产业链布局,正通过为台系龙头代工间接出海或直接获取 芯片巨头RVL认证等多元路径打破信任壁垒,并在国内云服务商(CSP)算力基建扩容的驱动下加速抢占 市场。随着散热需求向超高热密度演进,应重点关注从显热交换向相变潜热(如双相冷板、浸没式液冷) 的技术跨越,以及氟化液等新型冷却介质和芯片级微流体冷却带来的结构性投资机会。 中信证券主要观点如下: AI算力需求与芯片功耗攀升驱动液冷成为确定性趋势 随着摩尔定律放缓,通过提升芯片功率密度换取性能增长已成趋势,AI加速芯片的TDP已突破风冷散热 极限。全球各大云服务商(CSP)均已在其下一代架构中明确转向液冷方案,液冷正成为AI基础设施的默 认标准。这种从风冷向液冷的代际转变为液冷供应链带来长期的结构性增长动力。 液冷行业正处于快速增长的早期阶段,具备极高的成长潜力 中信证券研究部前瞻组预计北美四大CSP的2025年总资本开支同比大幅增长 ...
中信证券:当前房地产市场出现了一些积极信号
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-31 14:07
1月31日,中信证券发布房地产行业2025年业绩预告点评报告时指出,2026年房地产市场具备止跌回稳 的基础,房价止跌回稳也是房企资产负债表修复的关键。"当前经营性资产复苏的态势最为明显,具备 核心资源和运营能力的开发企业显著占据优势。"报告指出,业绩下滑是过去几年市场调整的客观呈现 结果,但当前房地产市场也呈现了一些积极信号。国家统计局数据显示,截至2025年12月,70个大中城 市新房和二手房价格指数较高点分别下跌12.6%和21.3%。结转项目毛利率下降,针对存货计提跌价准 备是房企业绩下滑的主因。但是,利润表是企业历史情况的反馈,当前市场也出现了一些积极信号。 《求是》杂志发表文章,强调房地产政策应一次性给足,尽可能缩短市场调整的时间,也有效提振了购 房人的信心。报告认为,风雨之后见彩虹,期待居民和企业资产负债表的良性共振。我国居民部门的现 金流量表保持良好,宏观经济健康向上,这也是未来企业经营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底气。政 策力推住宅价格止跌,加上商业地产资产增值,相信房地产板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业 的主要融资性现金流入,从以信用债(主体负债)为主转向以项目融资(REITs和物业 ...
中信证券:房地产行业有望迎来“风雨之后见彩虹”的复苏新阶段
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-01-31 12:14
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a significant recovery in operational assets despite short-term performance being affected by historical adjustments [1] Group 1: Industry Performance and Market Signals - The report highlights that among 78 A-share real estate companies that released performance forecasts, 58 reported losses, reflecting the objective reality of market adjustments over the past few years [1] - Positive signals are emerging in the industry, with the National Bureau of Statistics indicating that the adjustment phase has entered a deep water zone, with new and second-hand housing price indices in 70 major cities down by 12.6% and 21.3% from their peaks, respectively [1] - The downward trend in second-hand housing listings in major cities suggests an improving supply-demand relationship [1] - A significant article in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need for comprehensive real estate policy support, boosting buyer confidence and laying a solid foundation for a quicker market stabilization [1] Group 2: REITs Market and Financial Health - The report notes a significant improvement in the approval efficiency of the REITs market, accelerating the securitization of quality assets, which strengthens real estate companies' balance sheets and reduces debt burdens [2] - The healthy cash flow of the household sector and a robust macroeconomic environment provide solid support for the continuous recovery of operational cash flows for enterprises [2] - The financing structure in the industry is undergoing a fundamental shift, moving from reliance on corporate credit bonds to project financing (REITs and property operation loans), effectively alleviating the core mismatch between assets and liabilities [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - Based on the analysis, CITIC Securities suggests an investment strategy focused on operational assets and the revaluation of core asset values in China [2] - Companies with core resources and operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Mixc Life, Joy City, New Century Holdings, Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, and Longfor Group, are highlighted as having significant advantages [2] - With the expectation of a positive resonance between household and corporate balance sheets, the real estate industry is poised to emerge from the adjustment phase and enter a new recovery stage [2]
茅台与中信证券座谈,将携手在战略性新兴产业和未来产业探索布局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-31 08:58
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Moutai and CITIC Securities aims to enhance Moutai's market position and sustainable development through diversified investment strategies and financial services [3][4]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Moutai's Chairman Chen Hua and CITIC Securities' Chairman Zhang Youjun discussed deepening their partnership during a meeting on January 30 [1]. - CITIC Securities recognizes Moutai's brand and capital advantages, emphasizing its potential for sustainable growth and stable returns for investors [3]. - The collaboration seeks to explore new directions in the capital market and identify growth opportunities, aiming for mutual benefits [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - Moutai is committed to its core liquor business while also focusing on market-oriented transformation and upgrading traditional industries [4]. - The partnership will leverage CITIC Securities' resources to foster strategic emerging industries and new economic growth points, enhancing Moutai's resilience against market cycles [4]. - Moutai's contributions to rural revitalization and high-quality development in Guizhou are highlighted as part of its broader mission [4].
公募加仓非银金融,后市机会如何?
券商中国· 2026-01-31 06:03
基金增配保险、券商股。 最新数据显示,公募基金2025年四季度的非银金融仓位提高1个百分点。继有色金属、通信、基础化工之后, 非银金融 成为基金第四大获增持一级行业,其中中国平安、中国太保获超配。 此外, 近日多家上市券商发布2025年年度业绩预增公告,预计净利润同比增幅大多数超过50%,业绩预 增的预期是否已被市场充分消化? 分析认为,受益于权益市场行情和定存到期资金搬家,非银金融尤其是保险,估值调整之后结构性机会或大于 β机会。 公募加仓非银金融 2025年四季度,公募基金增持非银金融(保险、券商等),剔除股价上升带来市值增长,仓位提升超过1个百 分点,中国平安、中国太保等个股获得超配。 1月30日,中金公司公告预计2025年净利润85.42亿元—105.35亿元,同比增长50%—85% ;东吴证券预计2025 年归母净利润34.31亿元到36.68亿元,同比增加45%至55%;方正证券预计2025年归母净利润38.6亿到40.8亿 元,同比增长75%到85%。此外,中信证券、国泰海通、招商证券预计去年净利润超百亿元,已公布业绩预报 的上市券商中超半数预计去年净利润同比增幅超50%,最高增超40 0%。 ...
中信证券:新一轮市场培育下,白酒行业整体有望受益于本轮新消费者获取和消费者教育提升效果
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-31 05:54
中信证券指出,2026年以来,行业发生了很多大事件和变化,推动 白酒行业渠道升级和突破。短期, 白酒龙头企业开始积极拥抱消费者,消费者触达和消费者教育工作热度空前;中部企业适当降价,维持 市场量价平衡;尾部企业停产、出清库存。长期,"以消费者为核心"的渠道协同体系料将成为行业下一 轮周期中核心竞争力,需要企业逐步提升拓客能力、服务能力和场景运营能力。新一轮市场培育下,行 业整体有望受益于本轮新消费者获取和消费者教育提升效果。 ...
中信证券:重点关注从显热交换向相变潜热的技术跨越,以及氟化液等新型冷却介质和芯片级微流体冷却带来的结构性投资机会
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-31 04:52
Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI computing power and the increasing power consumption of chips have led to a structural shift towards liquid cooling as the default standard for next-generation architectures among major global cloud service providers [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The TDP of AI acceleration chips has surpassed the physical limits of air cooling, prompting a rapid growth in the liquid cooling market [1] - Domestic manufacturers have established a full industry chain layout and are breaking trust barriers through various paths, such as indirect overseas expansion by providing foundry services to Taiwanese leaders and obtaining RVL certification from chip giants [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The evolution of cooling needs towards ultra-high heat density necessitates a focus on the transition from sensible heat exchange to phase change latent heat technologies [1] - New cooling media such as fluorinated liquids and chip-level microfluidic cooling present structural investment opportunities [1]