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中信证券:奶价持续磨底,关注深加工及出海提振需求
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-27 00:50
每经AI快讯,中信证券研报指出,双节后供需平稳,奶价进入磨底阶段,合同内外价格环比平稳,乳 制品需求持续承压,其中常温表现弱于低温,深加工及出海低基数下快速成长,未来前景广阔。Q3肉 牛价格整体高位波动,2024年以来存栏累计去化或超过10%,预计2026年肉牛供给端存在下降压力,参 考上轮肉牛周期去化及价格回升节奏,判断本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间。继续看好肉牛原奶周期共 振。 ...
中信证券:双节后供需相对平稳 看好未来原奶、肉牛周期共振上行
智通财经网· 2025-11-27 00:48
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that live cattle prices have room for growth, while milk prices remain at historically low levels. The ongoing reduction in dairy cow inventory and the gradual impact of the reduction in beef breeding cows are expected to improve the performance of upstream breeding companies. The outlook for raw milk and beef cycles is positive, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices and profitability for the industry [1]. Summary by Category Raw Milk - After the double festival, supply and demand are relatively stable, with milk prices entering a bottoming phase. The overall supply-demand situation has remained stable since Q3, continuing in an oversupply state, with contract prices remaining flat [2]. - The demand for dairy products is under pressure, with a significant decline in sales since Q3 2025, exceeding double digits. The performance of ambient products is notably weaker than that of chilled products. Domestic brands hold only 4% of the market share in deep processing, indicating substantial room for domestic replacement [2]. Beef Cattle - Live cattle prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a cumulative reduction in inventory exceeding 10% since 2024. Attention is drawn to changes in supply by 2026 [3]. - The prices of live cattle and cull cows have been fluctuating at high levels since Q3 2025, with cull cow prices improving, which will enhance profit margins. However, profits are still significantly below the peak of the previous cycle [3]. Future Outlook - Domestic liquid milk demand remains under pressure, but there is potential for growth in deep processing and export markets. The supply-side reduction in inventory is expected to slow down, with expectations for slight acceleration in inventory reduction during the off-season [4]. - The reduction of breeding cows may exceed 10% since 2024, leading to a shortage in domestic cattle supply, which is a key driver for the current rise in beef prices. The previous cycle saw an 11% decline in inventory, resulting in a price increase of over 60% for fattening cattle. The current increase in live cattle prices is still below 20%, indicating further potential for price growth [4].
中信证券:维持建材行业“强于大势”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 00:42
中信证券研报称,我们发现重大地产政策发布约4-10个月后房屋销售面积出现明显改善,而新开工面积 的拐点则相对滞后,通常在政策出台后8-20个月左右显现。尽管政策效果传递至宏观经济及企业基本面 尚需时间,但资本市场往往提前反应。建材板块股价对地产政策高度敏感,常在关键利好政策公布后率 先启动上涨行情,并显著跑赢上证指数,展现明显的超额收益。维持行业"强于大势"评级。 ...
中信证券:本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间 继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 00:42
中信证券研报称,双节后供需平稳,奶价进入磨底阶段,合同内外价格环比平稳,乳制品需求持续承 压,其中常温表现弱于低温,深加工及出海低基数下快速成长,未来前景广阔。Q3肉牛价格整体高位 波动,2024年以来存栏累计去化或超过10%,预计2026年肉牛供给端存在下降压力,参考上轮肉牛周期 去化及价格回升节奏,我们判断本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间。继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振。 ...
中信证券:上调锂价预测区间上限至12万元/吨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 00:42
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that overseas lithium mine production remained stable in Q3 2025, reflecting a decrease in production enthusiasm among overseas mining companies due to weak lithium prices in the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - Despite a recovery in lithium prices in Q3 2025, feedback from overseas mining companies has been slow [1] - South American salt lake lithium extraction companies showed significant operational improvement in Q3 2025 and maintain an optimistic outlook for Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The strong demand for energy storage batteries is expected to continue driving the lithium industry, leading to a potential upward trend in lithium prices [1] - The price forecast for lithium has been adjusted, with the upper limit now set at 120,000 yuan per ton, suggesting a focus on low-cost stocks and companies with expected resource production increases during the price rebound [1]
中信证券发布大类资产趋势配置策略:风险平价+信号增强
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 00:42
中信证券研报称,近年来国内财富管理市场规模体量均持续增长,在无风险收益持续下行、资产轮动速 度加快、财富人群配置需求日益多元化的背景下,我们预计配置类产品有望迎来发展契机。基于此,我 们以低相关、有代表性的股债商指数作为底层资产,基于"风险平价+信号增强"的思路构建了大类资产 趋势配置策略。从历史回测结果来看,2012年初至2025年10月底,大类资产趋势配置策略年化收益为 8.97%,夏普比率为1.85,历年均能实现正收益,2025年以来实现收益13.87%。从情景复盘结果来看, 在历史上各类资产出现较大波动时,大类资产趋势配置策略能够通过有效地调整降低整体组合的风险。 ...
中信证券:奶价持续磨底 关注深加工及出海提振需求
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 00:37
(文章来源:第一财经) 中信证券研报指出,双节后供需平稳,奶价进入磨底阶段,合同内外价格环比平稳,乳制品需求持续承 压,其中常温表现弱于低温,深加工及出海低基数下快速成长,未来前景广阔。Q3肉牛价格整体高位 波动,2024年以来存栏累计去化或超过10%,预计2026年肉牛供给端存在下降压力,参考上轮肉牛周期 去化及价格回升节奏,判断本轮周期活牛价格仍有上行空间。继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振。 ...
券商账户管理功能优化试点再扩容
Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved several brokerages, including Guolian Minsheng, Western Securities, and Northeast Securities, to conduct pilot programs for optimizing account management functions, which are crucial for operational efficiency and customer investment experience [1][2] Group 1: Account Management Optimization - The approved pilot programs aim to enhance the account management system of brokerages to keep pace with the increasing diversity of financial products and services in the market [1] - The regulatory guidelines emphasize the importance of customer fund safety, proper management of fund transfers, and compliance with identity verification and risk management protocols [1][2] Group 2: Customer-Centric Approach - Guolian Minsheng plans to establish a comprehensive account core system to achieve unified identity recognition, risk management, and centralized asset management for clients, moving away from traditional isolated account management [2] - The optimization of account management functions is expected to improve customer experience by allowing for a panoramic view of various assets and facilitating easier fund transfers, thereby enhancing fund utilization efficiency [2][3] Group 3: Industry Trends - There is a growing demand for wealth management among Chinese residents, with a significant increase in new investor accounts, totaling 24.67 million in the first ten months of the year, reflecting a 9.32% year-on-year growth [3] - Brokerages are increasingly focusing on customer service efficiency and quality as key competitive factors in the wealth management sector, with firms like Northeast Securities and招商证券 implementing customer-centric organizational structures and service systems [3]
“散户之光”,一年暴赚272倍?协会出手
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-11-26 14:53
Core Viewpoint - The "Anwo Stock Insurance" product is identified as a fraudulent scheme that misleads investors by promising guaranteed returns on stock investments, which are not covered by legitimate insurance [3][6]. Group 1: Product Overview - "Anwo Stock Insurance" claims to be the first insurance product for stock investments, offering full compensation for any losses incurred [1][3]. - The platform promotes a strategy where users are advised to invest in recommended stocks, with the promise of full reimbursement for losses and a profit-sharing model for gains [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The China Insurance Industry Association issued a risk warning, clarifying that "Anwo Stock Insurance" is not an approved insurance product and that stock investment losses are not insurable [6][7]. - Financial regulatory authorities have confirmed that no entity named "Anwo Stock Insurance" has been authorized or registered [6]. Group 3: Institutional Reactions - Hong Kong Anwo Insurance and CITIC Securities have publicly denounced the fraudulent use of their names and have stated that they have no association with "Anwo Stock Insurance" [8][9]. - Both institutions have issued statements to protect their reputations and inform the public about the illegal activities being conducted under the guise of their brands [8][9].
炒股亏了能理赔?中保协紧急提示风险
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-11-26 14:31
近期,一家名为"安我股保"的互联网平台及相关APP账号在市场上出现,宣称与中信证券合作,推 出所谓"全网首家股民理赔保险"——用户在指定渠道充值,由"专业策略师"统一操盘购买股票,并承诺 若股票投资发生亏损,将进行全额理赔;若盈利,则抽取一定比例作为保费。 11月26日,中国保险行业协会发布风险提示称,根据金融监管部门核实,"安我股保"并非国家金融 监督管理总局批准设立的保险机构。股票投资亏损不属于保险可承保范围,目前金融监管部门未批准或 备案任何名称为"安我股保"的保险产品。该平台相关行为涉嫌以虚假保险产品为载体,非法经营金融业 务。 中国保险行业协会提醒广大消费者:务必增强风险防范意识,警惕各类借用"保险"名义开展的非法 金融活动。如有保险需求,应通过合法渠道向具备正规资质的保险公司购买保险产品,以确保自身权益 不受侵害。 记者了解到,"安我股保"冒用香港正规保险机构安我保险的名义,后者已于今年1月、7月、9月发 布了三条澄清公告,强调市面上所称的"安我股保"产品为假冒,与该公司无关,该公司从未于香港及内 地推出此产品。 中信证券也于10月20日紧急发布风险提示,称有不法分子通过互联网、社交媒体散布虚假信 ...