近日，上市券商陆续披露2025年业绩预告或快报，"牛市旗手"上一年度的表现也逐一揭开谜底。 根据相关券商发布的公告，国联民生（601456）预计2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比大增约 406%；中信证券（600030）预计2025年实现归母净利润超300亿元，同比增长38.46%。 2025年，中国资本市场整体呈现上行趋势，市场交投活跃，A股主要指数均实现上涨，这无疑让投资者 对券商的整体业绩表现多了几分期待。有券商分析师预计，2025年43家上市券商扣非净利润合计或高达 2167亿元，同比增长55%。 净利大增逾4倍太抢眼 1月18日，国联民生公告称，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润20.08亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加人民币16.11亿元，同比增长406%左右。 招商证券（600999）非银首席分析师郑积沙预计，2025年43家上市券商扣非净利润合计或高达2167亿 元，同比增长55%。分业务来看，根据2025年全年日均股基成交额及两融成交额来看，预计经纪和信用 业务收入或分别同比增长50%、43%；投行方面，2025年A股IPO/再融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Shanghai Securities' sponsorship business license by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to enhance the firm's investment banking service system and open new avenues for business development [1]. Group 1: Business Development - Shanghai Securities, established in 2001 with a registered capital of 5.327 billion yuan, has a total asset of 75.539 billion yuan as of mid-2025, reflecting a 3.63% increase year-on-year [2]. - In the first half of 2025, Shanghai Securities achieved an operating income of 1.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 53.73%, and a net profit of 706 million yuan, up 70.03% year-on-year [2]. - The newly acquired sponsorship business qualification is anticipated to inject new momentum into Shanghai Securities' investment banking operations, enhancing revenue sources and improving income structure [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape shows that leading brokers have significant advantages, with industry concentration continuing to rise. In 2025, CITIC Securities led with 43 sponsored projects, followed by Guotai Junan with 41 projects [3]. - The underwriting fees indicate a stark performance disparity among brokers, with CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan exceeding 1 billion yuan in fees, while many others earned less than 200 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Market Trends - The overall development of the investment banking sector is supported by a favorable market and active trading, with total net income from investment banking services for A-share listed brokers reaching 15.53 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.11% [4]. - Despite the positive market conditions, competition remains fierce, with 17 listed brokers experiencing over 30% growth in investment banking income, while 14 brokers saw a decline [4]. Group 4: Differentiation Strategies - In response to intensified competition, smaller brokers are accelerating the exploration of differentiated development paths, focusing on regional markets and specific client groups [4]. - For instance, First Capital aims to leverage shareholder resources to expand its coverage in Beijing and capitalize on opportunities in the bond market, while Northeast Securities focuses on high-growth SMEs [4][5]. - The industry is transitioning from a "channel-driven" model to a "professional-driven" model, emphasizing the importance of specialization and functionality in investment banking services [5].

中信证券：告别喧嚣，回归业绩 融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金接力 驱动的单边趋势行情结束。步入年报预告期，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。ETF的巨额赎回属于逆周期调节 的一部分，也给配置型资金提供了从容"上车"的窗口。配置上，好的组合应该是体验好、阻力小且抗焦虑的， 这是围绕"资源+传统制造定价权重估"为基础（化工、有色、电力设备和新能源）构建组合的优势。在此基础 上，可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分服务消费品种（如免税、航空等）或高景气品种（半导体 设备等）增强收益。 国泰海通：主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 上周证监会提出严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起大落。近期涨幅较大且引 发投资者热议的商业航天/GEO等主题炒作回归理性。国内千问/豆包等模型产品迭代加速拉动国产算力需求， 台积电资本开支指引超预期，国家电网加码"十五五"投资等成为新催化，交易监管有助于引导市场行稳致远， 主题轮动节奏加快，看好具备强需求支撑且产业催化密集的低位科技方向，如国产算力、新型电网、机器人、 内需消费。 华泰证券：短期震荡概率 ...

回顾2025年，中国资本市场整体呈现上行趋势，市场交投活跃，投资者信心增强，A股主要指数均实现上涨。 截至目前，包括中信证券、西南证券、国联民生等3家上市券商披露2025年的业绩快报/预告，均取得亮眼增 长。 券业"一哥"中信证券日前披露2025年业绩快报，在前年高基数的基础上更进一步。2025年，中信证券实现营业 收入748.3亿元，同比增长28.75%；实现归属于母公司股东的净利润300.51亿元，同比增长38.46%。对于业绩 增长的原因，中信证券表示，主要得益于公司稳步做大客户市场规模，经纪、投资银行、自营业务等收入均实 现较快增长；同时，公司坚定推进国际化布局，深化跨境服务能力，公司境外收入实现较快增长。 "牛市旗手"业绩爆发。 1月18日，国联民生公告，预计公司2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比大增约406%。 中信证券此前也公告，预计公司去年实现归母净利润超300亿元，同比增长38.46%。 国联民生去年净利大增超400% 1月18日，国联民生公告，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润20.08亿 元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加16.11亿 ...

1月18日下午，国联民生发布《2025年度业绩预增公告》。公司预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者 的净利润20.08亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加16.11亿元，同比增长约406%。 图片来源：公司公告 此前，中信证券、西南证券分别披露业绩快报、业绩预告，2025年受益于资本市场活跃，各项业务显著 增长，业绩得以提升。其中，中信证券2025年净利润达300.51亿元。 国联民生披露的公告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润19.44 亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加15.63亿元，同比增长约410%。 图片来源：公司公告 针对本期业绩预增的主要原因，国联民生表示，报告期内，公司完成通过发行A股股份的方式收购民生 证券股份有限公司控制权，平稳有序推进公司原有业务与民生证券相关业务的高效整合，并将其纳入财 务报表合并范围。 公司主动把握市场机遇，积极探索科技、金融与产业的深度融合，以"协同赋能"和"内生增长"为主线提 升综合金融服务能力，证券投资、经纪及财富管理等业务条线实现显著增长，同时由于上年同期比较基 数较小，本期经营业绩同比大幅提升。 此前也 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive recommendation for the insurance sector, suggesting a favorable outlook for both short-term and long-term performance [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the restructuring of the trillion-yuan health insurance market, with medical insurance continuing to dominate, projected to reach a premium of 944 billion yuan by November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.39% [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of securities firms, with CITIC Securities forecasting a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.75%, and a net profit of 30.05 billion yuan, up 38.46% [3][44]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: high-quality securities firms with significant valuation and performance mismatches, companies in the technology sector benefiting from venture capital, and diversified financial firms with impressive growth rates [3]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The report notes an increase in the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%, aimed at promoting market stability and resilience, with a controlled overall impact expected [2]. - Two securities firms reported strong earnings forecasts for 2025, with CITIC Securities showing significant growth in revenue and net profit due to high market activity [2][44]. Insurance Sector - The health insurance market is expected to see medical insurance as the main product, with a projected market share of approximately 46% by 2025, growing at nearly 7% [4]. - The report indicates that the C-end business will dominate the health insurance market, with a near 70% share by 2025, driven by trends such as expanding coverage and targeting younger demographics [4]. - The report anticipates that medical insurance will be the primary growth driver, influenced by factors like population aging and medical inflation [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: high-quality securities firms with valuation mismatches, technology firms benefiting from venture capital, and diversified financial firms with strong growth [3]. - It highlights the positive short-term outlook for the insurance sector, with expectations of high performance in Q1 due to favorable market conditions [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the financial industry, but it provides specific recommendations for various sectors and companies within the industry [3][21]. Core Insights - The financial industry experienced a decline this week, with the non-bank financial index down by 2.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points. The banking sector saw a decline of 3.03%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.46 percentage points [1][9]. - The report highlights a structural interest rate cut by the central bank, which is expected to impact various financial sectors, particularly banks and insurance companies. The insurance sector is viewed as being in a critical window for performance and valuation recovery [3][21]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to stabilize the derivatives market, which is expected to benefit well-capitalized and compliant brokerage firms [2][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.63%, with the securities, insurance, and diversified financial indices down by 2.21%, 3.59%, and 1.83% respectively [1][9]. - The banking sector's performance was notably poor, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of 2.20%, 4.08%, 2.40%, and 2.20% respectively [1][9]. 2. Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector's index fell by 3.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points. The report indicates that regulatory cooling measures have created short-term pressure on the insurance sector, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to asset growth and interest margin recovery [1][13][15]. - Key companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and New China Life are recommended for investment due to their strong fundamentals and recovery potential [3][16]. 3. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 2.21%, with the report emphasizing the potential benefits of new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing the derivatives market. The focus is on larger, well-capitalized firms that can navigate the evolving regulatory landscape [2][17]. - Recommendations include major brokerages like Guotai Junan and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in profitability and valuation [2][18]. 4. Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector's index fell by 3.03%, with the central bank's recent interest rate cut expected to support the sector's performance in the long run. The report suggests that banks may see a gradual recovery in net interest income and profitability [3][21][22]. - Specific banks such as Hangzhou Bank and Ningbo Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, particularly those with previously undervalued positions [3][22].

Core Viewpoint - Inclusive reform is identified as the core content of capital market reform during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the construction of a capital market system based on "expanding financing + strengthening investment + precise regulation + deep opening" [1] Group 1: Capital Market Development - Continuous strengthening of capital market institutional supply will support technological innovation, optimize industrial structure, enhance resident wealth, and build a strong financial nation [1] - The securities industry is expected to encounter significant structural opportunities in investment banking, derivatives, wealth management, and internationalization [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Two investment themes are suggested: 1) Leading securities companies aiming to become international first-class investment banks; 2) Medium to large securities companies with the potential to enter the top tier [1]

Group 1 - The private equity market in China is experiencing a surge, with a notable single-day fundraising of 1 billion yuan by a hundred billion private equity firm, indicating a continuation of the active issuance trend from 2025 [1] - In 2025, over 12,000 new private securities investment funds were registered, nearly doubling from 2024, with more than 60% of these funds focusing on stock strategies [1] - Nearly 90% of private equity products achieved positive returns in 2025, with an impressive average return rate [1] Group 2 - The A-share and commodity markets performed well in 2025, leading to an average return of approximately 29.38% for macro strategy private equity products [2] - Among private equity firms with over 5 billion yuan in scale, top performers included products managed by Jiuxian Investment and Honghu Liang Wentao, with returns exceeding 136.14% [2] - The top private equity firms in the subjective stock category achieved an average return of over 60% in the past three years, with Dongfang Gangwan leading at 147.27% [2] Group 3 - Quantitative private equity firms saw an average return of about 39% in 2025, with Lingjun Investment topping the performance rankings [3] - The average return for index-enhanced products under Huansheng Quantitative was approximately 56.55%, showcasing strong performance in the quantitative sector [3] Group 4 - The incentive mechanisms in quantitative private equity firms have come under public scrutiny, with reports of year-end bonuses reaching 10 million yuan for researchers [4] - The average return for quantitative long strategies was 39.51%, with some top products exceeding 50%, justifying high bonuses [4] - The competition for talent in the industry has intensified, with salaries for PhDs reaching 1 million yuan and internships at 1,000 yuan per day [4] Group 5 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Hong Kong capital market will remain active in 2026, with IPO and refinancing volumes above historical averages, particularly in the AI sector, which is considered "bubble-free" [5] - The return of international long-term capital to the market is significant, with participation in IPOs by US funds increasing from 10%-15% to 85%-90% [5] Group 6 - The recent increase in the minimum margin ratio for financing aims to cool market sentiment without altering the long-term positive trend, as the A-share market approaches a transaction volume of 4 trillion yuan [7] - The current market is not exhibiting systemic risks, and the regulatory framework for leverage is more mature compared to previous years [7] Group 7 - The insurance capital long-term investment pilot program has expanded, with 11 funds now operational, focusing on high-dividend stocks in sectors like industrials and utilities [8] - The total scale of the funds under the Honghu Fund series has reached 92.5 billion yuan, with significant participation from various insurance companies [8] Group 8 - CITIC Securities reported a record net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 38.46%, driven by active capital market conditions [11] - The company served over 17 million clients, with total client assets around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting strong growth in brokerage and investment banking services [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights that new regulations in derivatives are expected to release positive signals for the non-bank financial sector, with a focus on companies likely to announce performance increases [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% to 14281.08 [10]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.50% month-on-month [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to continue high growth, with improvements in long-term interest rate spreads anticipated [12][16]. - As of January 12, 2026, the total scale of private equity securities investment funds by insurance capital reached 184.5 billion yuan, with 11 funds established [16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life for potential investment opportunities [16]. Securities Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized stability and quality improvement in its 2026 work meeting, aiming to prevent market volatility and enhance internal stability [17][18]. - The CSRC's new derivatives regulations aim to standardize the market, encourage risk management, and improve the income structure of brokerage firms [25][26]. - The report indicates that the derivatives market is expected to grow significantly, with the scale of over-the-counter derivatives increasing from 0.32 trillion yuan in 2015 to 2.38 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 29% [26]. Group 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a current price of 66.33 yuan, with a target value of 85.17 yuan, indicating a buy rating [6]. - New China Life (601336.SH) is rated as a buy with a current price of 82.09 yuan and a target value of 94.21 yuan [6]. - China Life (601628.SH) is also rated as a buy, with a current price of 47.52 yuan and a target value of 55.47 yuan [6].