Core Viewpoint - On August 25, Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies to better meet residents' housing needs and promote a stable and healthy real estate market, effective from August 26, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Housing Purchase Policy Adjustments - The housing purchase limit will be reduced, allowing eligible residents to buy an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring road, including both new and second-hand homes [2][8]. - Local residents and single adults can purchase up to two homes within the inner ring road, while non-local residents can buy one home if they have paid social insurance or income tax for three years [2][9]. Group 2: Housing Provident Fund Policy Optimization - The maximum loan amount for housing provident fund loans will increase by 15% for those purchasing new green buildings rated two stars or above, with the first loan limit rising from 1.6 million to 1.84 million yuan [4][10]. - Homebuyers can withdraw their provident fund to pay the down payment for new homes, and this withdrawal will not affect their loan limit [4][10]. Group 3: Personal Housing Loan Interest Rate Mechanism - The interest rate pricing mechanism for personal housing loans will be optimized, with no distinction between first and second homes, allowing banks to set rates based on market conditions and customer risk [5][10]. Group 4: Property Tax Policy Improvements - Non-local residents purchasing their first home will be exempt from property tax, while those buying a second or additional homes will receive a tax exemption for 60 square meters per person after calculating the total housing area [6][10]. Group 5: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, real estate stocks surged, with Vanke A hitting a six-month high, and several other companies also experiencing significant gains, indicating positive market sentiment towards the new policies [12][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has underperformed the market due to multiple factors, with a weekly increase of 0.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300's 4.18% rise. Key influences include a preference for more elastic sectors, a lack of stability in the housing market, and pressure on some real estate companies' interim performance [2][3] - Despite concerns, there are positive factors such as potential policy support and the ongoing demand for quality properties, which may sustain market interest [2][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 22, the real estate sector has only increased by 3.4% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 11.3% [2] - Recent comments from Premier Li Qiang emphasize the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating potential policy support [2][7] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities reached 15,000 units, a 17.4% increase week-on-week, while second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities reached 18,000 units, up 7.8% [2][9] - Inventory levels slightly increased, with a total of 9,149 million square meters and a depletion cycle of 20.1 months as of August 22 [2][12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector's PE ratio (TTM) stands at 45.69, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 13.97, indicating a valuation at the 99.84 percentile over the past five years [2][21] - This week, the issuance of domestic real estate bonds totaled 11.16 billion yuan, reflecting a rise in issuance volume [2][18] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - China Resources Land, benefiting from stable dividends and a recovery in quality property sales [4] - Beike-W, a high-elasticity stock with significant market share in second-hand and new homes [4] - Jianfa International Group, known for its strong product quality and high dividends [4] - China Overseas Land, a leading state-owned enterprise with low valuation [4] - Greentown China, recognized for its quality and strong land acquisition capabilities [4]

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, highlighting transaction trends and market sentiments during Week 33 of 2025. Key Highlights - **Inventory Buyback Initiatives**: Policymakers are preparing to mobilize central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to purchase unsold homes from distressed property developers. The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy report emphasizes the need to enhance existing supportive measures, including the ARH relending program, which has an issuance balance of Rmb16.2 billion by the end of Q3 2024 against a total quota of Rmb300 billion, aimed at stabilizing the housing market and optimizing financing systems for the property sector [1][2]. Market Performance - **Transaction Volumes**: - Primary market transactions increased by **9% week-over-week (wow)** but decreased by **17% year-over-year (yoy)**. - Secondary market transactions decreased by **2% wow** and **1% yoy**. - Overall, the market sentiment remained stable, with new home search activities unchanged week-over-week, while secondary home visitor traffic improved by **3% wow**. However, secondary price expectations from agents weakened by **0.7 percentage points (pp) wow**, marking the second consecutive week of softening [2][5]. Key Data Points - **Sales Performance**: - New home sales volume averaged **+9% wow** and **-17% yoy**, with tier-3 cities and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) outperforming. - Secondary transactions averaged **-2% wow** and **-1% yoy**, with negative price appreciation expectations from agents but not homeowners. - Year-to-date (YTD) primary gross floor area (GFA) sold was down **7% yoy**, while secondary GFA sold was up **12% yoy** [5][25]. Inventory and Valuation Insights - **Inventory Levels**: - Inventory balance decreased by **0.1% wow** and **4.0% from end-2024 levels**, with inventory months at **25.8** (compared to an average of **26.0** in July 2025) [35]. - **Valuation Trends**: - Offshore coverage developers saw an average share price increase of **6% wow** (compared to **3% for MSCI China**), with CR Land and Greentown outperforming at **+11%** and **+10% wow**, respectively. Onshore developers averaged **+2% wow** [46][48]. Completions and New Starts - **Completions**: - The GSPC tracker indicates a **20% yoy decline** in completions for August 2025, compared to a **29% yoy decline** in July 2025 [40]. - **New Starts**: - New starts are expected to record a mid-teens level yoy decline in August, based on land sales trends in 300 cities and a **+2pp wow** increase in nationwide cement shipment ratios [40]. Implications for the Market - The report suggests that property sales in approximately **75 cities** indicate a likely **17% yoy decline** in presales for top-100 developers in August, compared to a **27% decline** in July [7]. - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with ongoing challenges in sales and price expectations, despite some positive movements in specific segments [6][7]. Conclusion - The Chinese property market is experiencing a plateau in transaction volumes, with mixed performance across different city tiers. Policymaker interventions and market stabilization efforts are crucial as the sector navigates ongoing challenges and seeks to transition to a new development model [1][2][6].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股物业均上涨，港股地产下跌。本周（8.16-8.22）本周申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+0.5%， 在各板块中位列第 31；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为-0.6%，在各板块中位列第 9。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨 跌幅为+1.1%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+0.5%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+4.2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪 深 300 的相对收益分别为+0.7%和-3.1%。 土地市场溢价率有所回落。本周（8.16-8.22）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 553 万㎡，单周环比-14%，单周同比-52%， 平均溢价率 5%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 23666 万㎡，累计同比-5.4%；年初至今，绿城中国、 中海地产、保利发展、建发房产、滨江集团的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(8.16-8.22)47 个城市商品房销售 285 万方，成交量环比+8%，同比-11%，整体维持季节性低位；7 月新房售 价环比-0.3%，环比跌幅持平，同比-3.4%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看：一线 城市周环比+5%，周同比 ...

Group 1: Government Policies and Economic Measures - The State Council held a meeting to discuss the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the trade-in policy for consumer goods, aiming to boost sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission is drafting rules to regulate pricing behavior in the platform economy, emphasizing transparency and compliance with pricing regulations [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation on August 25 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [5] Group 2: Industry Developments - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for stronger industry self-discipline to combat malicious competition and ensure fair market order [3] - Industrial Fulian reported significant improvements in production and delivery of its GB200 series products, with expanded capacity to meet growing customer demand [9] - Longjiang Electric Power announced that its controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 4 billion to 8 billion yuan within the next 12 months [10] Group 3: Market Movements and Corporate Actions - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the inclusion of China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart in the Hang Seng Index, increasing the number of constituent stocks to 88 [7] - Dongfeng Group announced plans for privatization and delisting while its subsidiary, Lantu Automobile, is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a higher probability of relaxed industrial policies, with the timing being the only question [5] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5] - The current stock positions are not far from the bottom premium, and the overall market valuation uplift provides room for rebound [5] - Focus on leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as leading brokerage, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies with stable cash flow [5] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.35%, with an excess return relative to the CSI 300 of -2.83%, ranking 29th out of 32 [6][15] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has increased by 6.38%, with an excess return of -4.88%, ranking 27th out of 32 [6][15] - The real estate sector performed moderately this week, with declines in both development and rental categories, while property management showed mixed results [6] Policy Updates - The central government emphasized the need for strong measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, including urban renewal and the renovation of old housing [7][18] - Local policies in Chengdu include optimizing housing provident fund policies, such as lowering down payment ratios and increasing loan limits [7][18] Sales Data - New home sales in sample cities remain low year-on-year, while second-hand home sales show marginal improvement [8] - For the week, new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 18.5% year-on-year, while second-hand home transaction area in 19 cities increased by 1.1% year-on-year [8] Market Dynamics - Since September last year, the stock and real estate markets have generally risen in sync, but since Q2 this year, the divergence has increased, with second-hand housing prices under pressure [9] - Long-term, both markets reflect fundamental factors and are significantly positively correlated, but this should not be interpreted as a causal relationship [9] - Short-term, the divergence indicates different risk appetites, with stock market risk appetite rising due to regulatory easing and capital inflows, while real estate risk appetite has not sustained [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014, and is still evolving [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more from these changes [3]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - The 5-year LPR remains stable at 3.5% as of August, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% [10]. - The real estate index saw a cumulative change of 0.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 3.68 percentage points, ranking last among 31 sectors [13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, a 16.7% increase month-on-month but a 16.1% decrease year-on-year [20]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in the same 30 cities are down 2.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 2.4% increase [25]. Secondary Housing - Secondary home sales in 14 sample cities reached 1.915 million square meters, reflecting a 6.4% month-on-month increase and a 9.5% year-on-year increase [30]. - Cumulative secondary home sales for the year are 6.8677 million square meters, up 16.7% year-on-year [30]. Credit Bonds - In the week of August 18-24, 18 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 15.282 billion yuan, an increase of 6.921 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. - The net financing amount was 3.378 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase [39].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index (H50034) rose by 0.67% to 1272.83 points, with a trading volume of 20.635 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 1.45%, by 7.37% over the last three months, and by 0.56% year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the performance of listed companies influenced by changes in economic and consumption structures, focusing on themes such as intensive, intelligent, and green low-carbon development [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Urban Infrastructure Index include China State Construction (9.11%), China Railway (6.93%), and Anhui Conch Cement (6.81%) [1] - The index is composed entirely of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with industrial companies making up 56.81%, real estate 32.23%, and materials 10.95% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Core Insights - The real estate industry in Shanghai is focusing on the slogan "doing one to one" during its consolidation phase, which emphasizes precision and discipline across various stages such as land acquisition, positioning, product design, sales, and delivery [1][3] Group 1: Project Performance - As of August 20, 2025, several projects have achieved a sales rate exceeding 90%, with six projects sold out immediately upon launch, including Green City Chaoming Dongfang and Poly Haoyue Waitan Xu98 [2][5] - Nearly half of the projects launched in 2024 have a sales rate above 90%, while about 20% of projects have a sales rate below 60%, indicating a disparity in market performance [5] Group 2: Land Acquisition and Development - The average time from land acquisition to project commencement is 2.3 months, with projects achieving over 90% sales having an average of 1.8 months, reflecting improved efficiency in project development [8] - The average time from land acquisition to project launch is 7.2 months, with high-performing projects achieving this in 6.5 months, showcasing the importance of rapid development cycles in the current market [8] Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The average price-to-land ratio for successful projects is 1.9, with some suburban projects like Jinmao Tangqian and China Merchants Times Tide approaching a ratio of 3.0, indicating strong profitability potential [11] - Projects like Green City Chaoming Dongfang and Kangding Yanshi have a price-to-land difference exceeding 50,000 yuan per square meter, highlighting their strong market performance [11] Group 4: Key Factors for Success - **Scarcity of Resources**: The importance of location is emphasized, with areas like Xuhui Riverside and Yangpu Riverside becoming highly sought-after due to their scenic and livable environments [13] - **Demand Thickness**: A robust potential customer base is crucial for project sales, with active second-hand markets indicating strong sales prospects for new developments [14] - **Value Retention Attributes**: The increasing scarcity of discounted properties and high expectations from recent land auctions are driving demand for projects with attractive pricing, such as those in Xinzhuang and Tangzhen [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is in a recovery phase, with ongoing policy support expected to continue [3][8] - Sales data for the first seven months of 2025 shows a decline in both sales area and sales amount, indicating a challenging market environment [11][13] - Investment in real estate remains under pressure, with new construction and completion rates showing weakness [27][34] - Financing conditions are tightening, but there is potential for improvement as policies are implemented [34][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the sector, suggesting a focus on those with strong fundamentals and safety margins [41][43] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Macro Data Summary - From January to July 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year, and the sales amount was 49,566 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [11][12] 2. Sales Recovery Phase - Sales area and amount have decreased, with residential sales showing a decline of 6.2% [13][14] - The market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but policy measures are expected to boost confidence and stabilize sales [3][13] 3. Investment Pressure - Real estate investment from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with new construction area down 19.4% [27][28] - The overall investment trend remains downward, with weak land acquisition and new construction intentions [27][34] 4. Financing Conditions - The total funds available for real estate development decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, but there are signs of potential improvement due to policy support [34][36] 5. Policy Relaxation and Price Trends - Recent policies have led to a narrowing decline in housing prices, indicating a stabilizing market [36][37] 6. Focus on Leading Companies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and safety margins, particularly in first and second-tier cities [41][43] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a long-term investment perspective in the real estate sector, particularly in companies with robust fundamentals [43]