7月30日，恒力石化大宗交易成交931.57万股，成交额1.5亿元，占当日总成交额的20.64%，成交价16.1元，较市场收盘价16.1元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-30 | 恒力石化 | 600346 | 16.1 14998.28 | 931.57 | 华泰证券股份有限 | 广发证券股份有限 | | | | | | | | 公司南京长江路证 | 公司南京水佑岗证 | | | | | | | | *** == = | 44 == == = | | ...

证券之星消息，7月30日炼化及贸易板块较上一交易日上涨1.87%，宝利国际领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3615.72，上涨0.17%。深证成指报收于11203.03，下跌0.77%。炼化及贸易板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300135 | 宝利国际 | 4.57 | 6.28% | 110.25万 | | 4.97亿 | | 002221 | 东华能源 | 10.35 | 4.86% | 48.71万 | | 4.98亿 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 16.10 | 3.67% | 35.82万 | | 5.77亿 | | 601233 | 桐昆股份 | 12.82 | 3.47% | 1 61.77万 | | 7.90亿 | | 002493 | 荣盛石化 | 9.59 | 3.12% | 52.44万 | | 5.04亿 | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 6.01 | 1.86% | 156.05万 | | 9.36亿 | ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed a positive trend today, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching a maximum intraday increase of 2.27% and closing up 1.36% [1] - The basic chemical sector has attracted significant capital, with over 145 billion yuan net inflow from main funds in the last 60 trading days, ranking fifth among 30 first-level industries [2] - The chemical ETF (516020) has seen substantial net subscriptions, with a total of 97.12 million yuan in the last five trading days and over 240 million yuan in the last ten trading days [3] Group 2 - From a valuation perspective, the current time is considered a good opportunity for investment in the chemical sector, with the chemical ETF (516020) trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.08, which is at a low point compared to the past decade [5] - The market's expectations for "anti-involution" policies have increased, leading to a recovery in valuations within the petrochemical and chemical industries, particularly for products that have seen price increases [5] - Some stocks in the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors have shown significant gains, with Satellite Chemical rising over 6% and several others increasing by more than 3% [6] Group 3 - The overall performance of the chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across sub-industries due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have exceeded expectations [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [7] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in futures markets, particularly in coal and steel, has led to a strong performance in related stocks, indicating a potential recovery in the cyclical sectors driven by policy support and improving demand conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Futures Market Movements - On July 30, coal futures rose nearly 7%, with other commodities like coke and glass also seeing significant increases of around 6% [1]. - The strong performance in the futures market translated into the stock market, with cyclical sectors such as steel, coal, and chemicals experiencing a robust rally [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The steel sector saw an average increase of over 3% in early trading, with notable performers including Xining Special Steel hitting the daily limit, and Ba Yi Steel and Baosteel rising by over 5% and 4%, respectively [1][2]. - The coal sector also performed well, with Antai Group hitting the daily limit and Shaanxi Black Cat and Huaibei Mining both increasing by over 2% [4]. Group 3: Chemical Sector Developments - The basic chemical sector rose by 1.05%, with companies like Wankai New Materials and Luban Chemical hitting the daily limit, while others like Jiu Ri New Materials and Songjing Co. saw increases of over 5% [5][6]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Context - The current cyclical rally began in late June, driven by signals of policy support from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which is set to introduce measures to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel and petrochemicals [5][7]. - Recent regulatory changes, including the draft amendment to the Price Law, aim to curb disorderly competition in industries like steel and chemicals, promoting profit recovery [5][7]. Group 5: Industry Profitability - The gross profit per ton of steel has rebounded from 86 yuan in Q2 to 213 yuan for rebar, reflecting the positive impact of policy measures [7]. - In the coal sector, the National Energy Administration has initiated production checks to control overproduction, while coal imports have dropped over 30% year-on-year, tightening supply expectations [7].

化工板块今日（7月30日）早盘走高后持续高位震荡，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘 中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.27%，截至发稿，涨1.36%。 成份股方面，石化、氮肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，卫星化学飙涨超6%，新凤鸣大涨超 4%，恒力石化、华鲁恒升、鲁西化工等多股涨超3%。 | | | 318 8-1 15 59 159 159 (109 E . | | | | | 19 dramate find not no and the will of a | | | | 《《TETE CO | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.575 | | | | surance manus | 516020(KLIETF] 13:43 价 0.66) 2009(1.36%) 136% 0.671 版权服 1870 10PV 0.6679 "227% | | | | | | 0.669 SSE CNY 1341:57 交通中 | | +0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that leading chemical companies such as Wanhua, Satellite, Hualu, Hengli, and Rongsheng have collectively surged, driven by a historical correlation where the chemical index outperforms during PPI recovery cycles [1] - The elimination of backward production capacity aligns well with the characteristics of the chemical ETF, which tracks a leader-focused index, benefiting from the capital expenditures of leading companies in recent years [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 1.80%, with significant gains from constituent stocks like Satellite Chemical (up 6.83%) and Wanhua Chemical (up 4.71%) [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Yilake Co., and Juhua Co., collectively accounting for 43.37% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [1][2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a strong opening on July 30, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising over 2% during intraday trading, reflecting overall positive momentum in the sector [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including Satellite Chemical, Xin Fengming, and others, saw significant gains, with Satellite Chemical surging over 6% and several others rising more than 4% [1][2] - The basic chemical sector attracted substantial capital inflow, with net inflows exceeding 2.2 billion yuan, ranking second among 30 major sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The domestic chemical industry is facing a cycle of "expansion-price suppression-loss," leading to deteriorating profitability and a need for capacity constraints to break this cycle [3] - Leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly due to their lack of obsolete capacity, cost advantages, and high market share, which positions them well for profitability [3] - Current valuation metrics suggest that it may be an opportune time to invest in the chemical sector, with the chemical ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.08, indicating a low valuation relative to historical levels [4] Group 3 - The market anticipates a policy shift towards "de-involution," which could lead to a re-pricing of cost factors in the chemical sector, similar to the effects seen during the supply-side reform period [4] - Investors are encouraged to focus on cyclical basic chemical products and leading companies with cost advantages as potential investment opportunities [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment approach, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating on large-cap leading stocks, which enhances investment efficiency [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and chemical fiber industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply-side clearing pattern is improving, and the industry is awaiting a recovery in prosperity [1] - The report emphasizes the ongoing elimination and upgrading of outdated chemical facilities, which is expected to stabilize the supply side of the industry [4] - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a continuous increase in concentration, with leading companies likely to benefit from the recovery in industry prosperity [5][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is undergoing a phase of eliminating outdated facilities, with a focus on safety and efficiency improvements. A plan has been issued for the period from 2024 to 2029 to phase out non-compliant production facilities and upgrade existing ones [4] - The domestic refining capacity is expected to be maintained at around 1 billion tons, with a target utilization rate of over 80% for major products by 2025 [4] Polyester Filament Sector - The domestic polyester filament capacity has grown from 33.28 million tons in 2019 to 43.16 million tons in 2023, with an annual growth rate of 5%. The growth rate is expected to slow down significantly due to high oil prices and weakened supply-demand dynamics [5] - The industry is shifting from extensive expansion to refined operations, with a focus on high-value-added products, which is expected to enhance the market competitiveness of leading companies [5][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the "refining-chemical fiber" sector, including Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xinfengming Group, Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry recovery [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to undergo a new round of supply-side reforms, driven by the government's initiatives to eliminate outdated production capacity and improve industry structure [1][21] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to support the exit of old capacities, benefiting leading companies in sub-industries such as refining, fertilizers, pigments, organic silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC [1][21] Summary by Sections Refining - Strict control of refining capacity and low operating rates of local refineries in Shandong are expected to improve the profitability of major refineries [2][24] - As of 2024, China's refining capacity is projected to be 934 million tons, with a target to keep crude oil processing capacity below 1 billion tons by 2025 [24][25] Urea - Future supply is expected to decrease, with only 493,000 tons of new urea capacity projected by 2025, representing 6.5% of the current total capacity [2][26] - The industry is likely to benefit from supply reductions and potential export opportunities, particularly for leading companies capable of upgrading their facilities [26] Soda Ash and PVC - Increased demand from infrastructure projects is expected to drive recovery in the soda ash and PVC markets [3][27] - New soda ash capacity planned for 2025-2026 is estimated at 868,000 tons, accounting for 20% of the total capacity in 2024 [28] - The PVC industry is also expected to see limited new capacity, with a projected increase of 500,000 tons by 2025-2026, representing 17% of the total capacity in 2024 [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in various sub-industries, including: - Refining: China Petroleum, Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong [4] - Fertilizers: Hualu Hengsheng, Chuanheng Co., Hubei Yihua, Salt Lake Potash, Yara International, Sinochem Fertilizer [4] - Pigments: Qicai Chemical, Baihehua, Xinkai Technology, Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu Co. [4] - Chlor-alkali/PVC: Yangmei Chemical, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye [4] - Organic Silicon/Industrial Silicon: Hoshine Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Silbond Technology [4] - Soda Ash: Sanyou Chemical, Boyuan Chemical, Shandong Haihua [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of filaments and staple fibers weakened in the week. The domestic key large refining project spread increased slightly, while the foreign spread decreased slightly. The profits of the polyester filament industry declined, and the inventory decreased. The prices of domestic and US refined oil products showed a downward trend. The PX price increased, and the spread with crude oil widened, but the PX operating rate decreased [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing 3.1.1 Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects - The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,526 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton (1.8%). The spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,098 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [2][8]. 3.1.2 Polyester Plate - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of POY/FDY/DTY were 6,579/6,814/7,804 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 25/18/75 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were - 155/-264/-205 yuan/ton, with week - on - week decreases of 76/71/109 yuan/ton. The price of polyester staple fiber was 6,617.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.9 yuan/ton, and the profit was 36.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 81.1 yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of POY/FDY/DTY was 15.5/20.3/28.1 days respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 9.9/5.3/2.6 days. The operating rate of filaments was 92.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of downstream looms was 55.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 days, and the finished product inventory was 30.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days [2][9]. 3.1.3 Refining Plate - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of diesel and jet fuel decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The US gasoline price decreased this week [2]. 3.1.4 Chemical Plate - The average PX price this week was 849.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 US dollars/ton. The spread with crude oil was 346.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.1 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2][9]. 3.1.5 Related Listed Companies - Private large refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming [2]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - The report shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the oil price, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [13][15][18]. 3.2.2 Polyester Plate - The report presents multiple data related to the polyester industry chain, including the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, the operating rates of related products, inventory days, and sales - to - production ratios [24][37][45]. 3.2.3 Refining Plate - The report analyzes the prices and spreads of refined oil products in different regions (domestic, US, Europe, and Singapore) and their relationships with crude oil prices [79][93][105]. 3.2.4 Chemical Plate - The report shows the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene and their relationships with crude oil prices [130][135][138].