Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to undergo a new round of supply-side reforms, driven by the government's initiatives to eliminate outdated production capacity and improve industry structure [1][21] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to support the exit of old capacities, benefiting leading companies in sub-industries such as refining, fertilizers, pigments, organic silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC [1][21] Summary by Sections Refining - Strict control of refining capacity and low operating rates of local refineries in Shandong are expected to improve the profitability of major refineries [2][24] - As of 2024, China's refining capacity is projected to be 934 million tons, with a target to keep crude oil processing capacity below 1 billion tons by 2025 [24][25] Urea - Future supply is expected to decrease, with only 493,000 tons of new urea capacity projected by 2025, representing 6.5% of the current total capacity [2][26] - The industry is likely to benefit from supply reductions and potential export opportunities, particularly for leading companies capable of upgrading their facilities [26] Soda Ash and PVC - Increased demand from infrastructure projects is expected to drive recovery in the soda ash and PVC markets [3][27] - New soda ash capacity planned for 2025-2026 is estimated at 868,000 tons, accounting for 20% of the total capacity in 2024 [28] - The PVC industry is also expected to see limited new capacity, with a projected increase of 500,000 tons by 2025-2026, representing 17% of the total capacity in 2024 [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in various sub-industries, including: - Refining: China Petroleum, Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong [4] - Fertilizers: Hualu Hengsheng, Chuanheng Co., Hubei Yihua, Salt Lake Potash, Yara International, Sinochem Fertilizer [4] - Pigments: Qicai Chemical, Baihehua, Xinkai Technology, Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu Co. [4] - Chlor-alkali/PVC: Yangmei Chemical, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye [4] - Organic Silicon/Industrial Silicon: Hoshine Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, Silbond Technology [4] - Soda Ash: Sanyou Chemical, Boyuan Chemical, Shandong Haihua [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of filaments and staple fibers weakened in the week. The domestic key large refining project spread increased slightly, while the foreign spread decreased slightly. The profits of the polyester filament industry declined, and the inventory decreased. The prices of domestic and US refined oil products showed a downward trend. The PX price increased, and the spread with crude oil widened, but the PX operating rate decreased [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing 3.1.1 Price and Spread of Key Refining Projects - The spread of domestic key large refining projects this week was 2,526 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton (1.8%). The spread of foreign key large refining projects was 1,098 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [2][8]. 3.1.2 Polyester Plate - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average weekly prices of POY/FDY/DTY were 6,579/6,814/7,804 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 25/18/75 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were - 155/-264/-205 yuan/ton, with week - on - week decreases of 76/71/109 yuan/ton. The price of polyester staple fiber was 6,617.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32.9 yuan/ton, and the profit was 36.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 81.1 yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of POY/FDY/DTY was 15.5/20.3/28.1 days respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 9.9/5.3/2.6 days. The operating rate of filaments was 92.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of downstream looms was 55.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.2 days, and the finished product inventory was 30.7 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days [2][9]. 3.1.3 Refining Plate - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of diesel and jet fuel decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The US gasoline price decreased this week [2]. 3.1.4 Chemical Plate - The average PX price this week was 849.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 US dollars/ton. The spread with crude oil was 346.3 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.1 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate was 82.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2][9]. 3.1.5 Related Listed Companies - Private large refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming [2]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - The report shows the changes in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the oil price, as well as the market performance of six private large refining companies and the weekly spreads of domestic and foreign large refining projects [13][15][18]. 3.2.2 Polyester Plate - The report presents multiple data related to the polyester industry chain, including the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, the operating rates of related products, inventory days, and sales - to - production ratios [24][37][45]. 3.2.3 Refining Plate - The report analyzes the prices and spreads of refined oil products in different regions (domestic, US, Europe, and Singapore) and their relationships with crude oil prices [79][93][105]. 3.2.4 Chemical Plate - The report shows the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene and their relationships with crude oil prices [130][135][138].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the chemical sector, particularly the rise in the Zhongzheng Subdivided Chemical Industry Theme Index and its constituent stocks [1][2] - The chemical ETF has shown a significant increase, with a reported price of 0.63 yuan and a subscription of 36.5 million units during the trading session [1][2] - The Daqing Petrochemical Company has achieved record production levels of MTBE, increasing by 0.44 thousand tons compared to the same period last year, reflecting effective management and production optimization [1] Group 2 - The second quarter of this year saw a rapid rebound in the overall market, with the chemical sector focusing on price increases, domestic demand support, and new materials [2] - Investment in the chemical sector is being directed towards potassium fertilizers and fluorochemical sectors due to their fundamental support, while domestic demand is gaining attention amid international trade conflicts [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Subdivided Chemical Industry Theme Index account for 43.37% of the index, indicating a concentration of investment in major players like Wanhua Chemical and Yanhai Co [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that policy changes are expected to drive medium to long-term recovery in the industry, with a continued positive outlook on resource sector performance exceeding expectations [2][9] - The petrochemical sector is anticipated to stabilize growth, with the retirement of outdated facilities likely to enhance industry recovery [9][17] - The report emphasizes the sustained optimism regarding the agricultural resource chain, particularly in the phosphate and potassium sectors, which are expected to maintain a relatively balanced supply-demand situation despite concerns over new capacity releases [9][17] Summary by Sections Price and Price Spread Changes - The report monitors 188 chemical products, noting that the top three price increases were for liquid chlorine (up 21.8%), TDI 80/20 (up 18.8%), and natural gas (up 6.3%), while the largest declines were for D4 (down 9.6%), butane (down 6.7%), and acrylic acid (down 5.0%) [14][18] - The top three price spreads that increased were PTA (up 1103.7%), TDI spread (up 30.1%), and acrylic acid butyl ester spread (up 25.6%), with the largest declines in styrene (down 36.5%), oil head propylene spread (down 36.1%), and polyethylene spread (down 20.8%) [19][18] Industry Recovery Expectations - There is a continuous expectation for industry bottom recovery, driven by policy changes and market dynamics [12] - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector has been in a prolonged low phase, and recent policy adjustments are likely to enhance market expectations for recovery [9][17] Agricultural Resource Sector Outlook - The agricultural resource sector, particularly phosphate and potassium, is expected to remain in a relatively tight supply-demand balance, with traditional agricultural needs and emerging demands contributing to this stability [9][17]

Core Insights - The "2025 Suzhou Top 100 Private Enterprises" list was announced, with Hengli Group leading at a revenue of 871.52 billion yuan, followed by Shenghong Holding Group at 565.62 billion yuan, and Shagang Group at 270.65 billion yuan [1][2] - The list reflects the growth and modernization of private enterprises in Suzhou, contributing significantly to the city's high-quality economic development [1] Revenue and Financial Metrics - The entry threshold for the "2025 Suzhou Top 100 Private Enterprises" was set at 3.32 billion yuan, with 7 companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue [2] - The total revenue of the listed enterprises reached 3,745.74 billion yuan, with an average revenue of 374.57 million yuan per company, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.82% [2] - Total assets of the listed companies amounted to 25,880.71 billion yuan, with an average asset size of 258.81 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.04% [2] - The total tax contribution from these enterprises was 90.71 billion yuan, averaging 9.07 million yuan per company [2] - The total workforce across these enterprises was 818,800, with an average employment of 8,188 per company [2] Industry Distribution - Among the top 100 enterprises, 65 are in the manufacturing sector, with notable representation from computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing (18 companies) [3] - Other significant sectors include textiles (7 companies), chemical manufacturing (6 companies), and various metal processing industries (6 companies each) [3] - The service sector includes 28 companies, while construction and related industries account for 5 companies [3] Geographic Distribution - The top 100 enterprises are distributed across various regions, with Zhangjiagang and Wujiang each having 14 companies, and Taicang and Kunshan each having 13 [3] - Suzhou Industrial Park has 12 companies, while Suzhou High-tech Zone has 10 [3] - Other regions include Changshu and Xiangcheng with 8 companies each, Wuzhong with 6, and Gusu with 2 [3]

Core Insights - The "2025 Suzhou Private Enterprises R&D Investment Top 100" list was officially released, marking the first time Suzhou has published a ranking based on annual R&D expenses as a core indicator [1][4] - The total R&D investment of the top 100 companies reached 63.082 billion yuan, with a minimum threshold of 72.81 million yuan for inclusion [4] - The list highlights the strong manufacturing base in Suzhou, with 92 out of 100 companies being in the manufacturing sector, indicating a focus on innovation and technological advancement [4][5] R&D Investment Details - The top four companies by R&D expenditure in 2024 are: 1. Jiangsu Shagang Group Co., Ltd. - 7.758 billion yuan 2. Shenghong Holding Group Co., Ltd. - 6.772 billion yuan 3. Hengtong Group Co., Ltd. - 5.927 billion yuan 4. GCL Group - 5 billion yuan [4] - The distribution of R&D expenses among the listed companies shows that 4 companies spent over 5 billion yuan, 11 companies spent between 1 billion and 5 billion yuan, and 59 companies spent between 10 million and 1 billion yuan [4] Innovation and Development Context - Suzhou's industrial output value for 2024 is projected to reach 4.69 trillion yuan, aiming for a target of 5 trillion yuan [4] - The local government has implemented policies to enhance technological innovation capabilities, including the establishment of innovation platforms and support for R&D investment [5][6] - The city has cultivated 235 innovation consortia, with an 80.6% rate of R&D institution establishment among industrial enterprises [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][8]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually phase out old production capacities that are over 20 years old, driven by new regulations from the Ministry of Emergency Management and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2]. - The refining sector has a high proportion of old facilities, with nearly 50% of the total refining capacity being over 20 years old, suggesting significant room for improvement in supply [2][3]. - The olefins market, particularly propylene, shows potential for recovery as 21% of its capacity is over 20 years old, and current market conditions are favorable due to reduced overseas supply [2]. - The polyester segment has fewer old facilities, but the recovery potential for polyester filament is significant, with 13% of its capacity being over 20 years old [2]. Summary by Sections Old Capacity Analysis - The report highlights that nearly 50% of refining capacity and 40% of capacity over 30 years old are considered old, indicating a substantial opportunity for supply-side improvements [2][3]. - Specific old capacity percentages for various petrochemical products include: - Refining: 49.3% (20 years), 39.4% (30 years) - Propylene: 21.2% (20 years), 10.1% (30 years) - Pure Benzene: 17.8% (20 years), 3.1% (30 years) [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the phase-out of old capacities [2]. - In the propylene sector, companies like Satellite Chemical and Baofeng Energy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [2]. - For polyester filament, Tongkun Co. is recommended as a key player to watch as the market conditions improve [2].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have initiated an assessment of aging equipment in the petrochemical industry, with provinces like Hunan and Shandong already starting this evaluation [1] - The aging chemical equipment, some over 30 to 40 years old, poses safety risks due to corrosion and outdated design standards, necessitating updates and replacements [1] - A draft method for assessing aging chemical installations has been released, focusing on facilities that have reached their design lifespan or have been in operation for over 20 years [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently facing profitability pressures, but the introduction of a growth plan for the petrochemical sector may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and an improved competitive landscape [2] - Key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, are set to receive growth plans aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of inefficient capacity [2] - Analysts suggest that the petrochemical sector may need to control capacity and approve fewer new projects due to potential overcapacity [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of domestic refining capacity is expected to slow down in 2024, with a significant focus on controlling crude oil processing capacity to remain under 1 billion tons by 2025 [3] - Policies aimed at phasing out inefficient refining capacity are expected to continue, potentially leading to a reduction in refining capacity growth and an improved competitive environment [3] - Future projections indicate that refining capacity growth may slow significantly from 2025 to 2026, with possible negative growth in 2027 to 2028 [3] Group 4 - Private refining companies are focusing on shareholder returns, maintaining high dividend payout ratios, and entering a phase of improving free cash flow [4] - Current valuations of private refining companies may be below the equity value of their refining assets, indicating potential long-term investment value [4] - Analysts recommend focusing on leading refining companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Sinopec, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a downturn due to falling oil prices, with expectations for recovery in the mid to downstream sectors in the future [1]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in crude oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - Key companies in the industry are projected to report lower profits in Q2 2025 due to the impact of declining oil prices and inventory losses [5]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In Q2 2025, Brent crude oil averaged $66.7 per barrel, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [5][6]. - Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton for gasoline and 150 CNY/ton for diesel [5]. Price Spread Analysis - The report notes that the price spreads for styrene, PX-naphtha, ethylene-naphtha, and crude oil catalytic cracking widened, while spreads for propane-propylene, butyl acrylate, and PTA-PX narrowed in Q2 2025 [5][7]. - The average price spread for ethylene from ethane was $567/ton, narrowing by $43/ton quarter-on-quarter [5][7]. Company Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report the following net profits for Q2 2025: - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): 40 billion CNY (YoY -7%, QoQ -15%) - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): 30 billion CNY (YoY -25%, QoQ -18%) - Sinopec: 6 billion CNY (YoY -65%, QoQ -55%) - CNOOC Services: 1.2 billion CNY (YoY +25%, QoQ +35%) - Offshore Oil Engineering: 600 million CNY (YoY -17%, QoQ +11%) [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for polyester recovery, recommending attention to leading companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [5]. - It also highlights potential improvements in refining companies' costs and competitive positioning, recommending companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5]. - The report indicates that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a reversal in prosperity driven by anti-involution measures, with significant opportunities arising from supply-side reforms and the optimization of competitive structures [4][30] - The current economic environment, including the exit of European chemical capacities and the slowdown of new capacities in China, is likely to accelerate the restructuring of the domestic chemical industry [4] - Key sectors to focus on include polyurethane, private refining, low-carbon olefins, coal chemicals, phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, and chromium salts [4][5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 5.4% over the last month, 12.0% over the last three months, and 22.8% over the last year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights four major investment opportunities: 1. Low-cost expansion with companies like Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [4] 2. Improved prosperity in sectors such as chromium salts and phosphorus ores [5] 3. New materials with high growth potential and low domestic production rates [6] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [6] Key Price Movements - Notable price increases include TDI at 15,500 CNY/ton (+23.02% week-on-week) and DMC at 3,900 CNY/ton (+5.41% week-on-week) [8] - The report also tracks various chemical prices, indicating a general upward trend in key products [8][9] Company Tracking - Specific companies are highlighted for their performance and potential, including: - Wanhua Chemical: MDI price stable at 16,700 CNY/ton [9] - Hengli Petrochemical: Polyester filament inventory increased to 26.5 days [12] - Yuntianhua: Phosphate prices stable at 1,038 CNY/ton [13] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in demand and a continued rise in the prosperity of certain sectors, particularly those with supply constraints [30]