Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of instant retail in China's liquor market is expected to maintain double-digit growth in the coming years, driven by the competitive landscape of food delivery services by 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Instant Retail Growth - China's retail industry has evolved through traditional retail, e-commerce, and new retail, with instant retail significantly shortening delivery times and enhancing consumer choices [1][2] - The liquor instant retail market has seen a surge since its inception on platforms like 1919 and Jiuxiaoer, with four main channel models emerging: vertical, platform-based, warehouse-store integrated, and front warehouse models [1][2] Group 2: Drivers of Instant Retail - The rise of instant retail in liquor is attributed to changing consumer habits, with a growing demand for convenience and quick fulfillment of spontaneous needs [2] - Cost efficiency is achieved by reducing distribution layers and operational costs, coupled with subsidies from some platforms, leading to significant price advantages [2] - Supply-side drivers include channel partners seeking to capture new growth and brand owners willing to collaborate with channels for new product launches and promotions [2] Group 3: Impact on the Liquor Industry - Instant retail presents both opportunities and challenges for the liquor industry, offering efficient fulfillment and better reach to younger consumers, while potentially impacting brand image and pricing structures [3] - Historical trends indicate that changes in the liquor cycle often coincide with channel transformations, and the current deep adjustment in the industry necessitates adaptation to instant retail [3] - The instant retail market for liquor in China is projected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate approaching the mid-double digits, benefiting core categories like baijiu and beer [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The liquor retail channel is undergoing structural growth, with instant retail emerging as a highlight; recommended stocks include leading national brands and regional players with strong channel development capabilities [4] - Specific recommendations for baijiu include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jiansiyuan, and Guqingongjiu, while short-term elastic stocks include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [4] - For beer, which is the second-largest category in liquor, recommended stocks include Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and China Resources Beer, reflecting high participation in instant retail [4]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is that Shede Liquor is innovating its product offerings to attract younger consumers while maintaining its traditional old liquor strategy [1][2] - The newly launched "马上有舍得" series of small liquor blind boxes targets young consumers with a playful design and a lower price point of 98 yuan per 100ml bottle, making it more accessible [1][4] - Shede's "舍得自在" product, priced at 329 yuan for 500ml, features a lower alcohol content and aims to provide a comfortable choice for consumers, expanding the boundaries of old liquor consumption [2][4] Group 2 - Shede Liquor is focusing on e-commerce as a key sales channel, with significant growth in online sales, achieving 336 million yuan in e-commerce revenue, a year-on-year increase of 31.38% [5][4] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with JD.com to enhance its online presence and is actively pursuing new sales channels, including live-streaming e-commerce [4][5] - Internationally, Shede has expanded its market presence, with a 50% year-on-year increase in sales revenue in Southeast Asia and operations in 40 countries and regions [6][5] Group 3 - Shede Liquor is investing in a joint venture for a "liquor tourism integration project" with a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan, aiming for an internal rate of return of 8.5% over an estimated payback period of 11.47 years [8][8] - The company is actively addressing inventory pressure, with a total inventory of 5.603 billion yuan as of mid-2025, and is continuing its production expansion projects with a total investment of 7.054 billion yuan [10][10] - As of the report period, Shede has invested 1.05 billion yuan in its expansion project, with a cumulative investment of 1.762 billion yuan, indicating a progress rate of approximately 31% [10][10]

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Date**: September 23, 2025 Key Points Industry Context - The overall liquor industry is expected to decline by 15%-20% during the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 due to industry-wide downturns [2][3] - Shede Liquor is focusing on the mid-to-high-end market to mitigate the impact of the industry decline [2][3] Sales Performance - The main product, "Pinwei Shede," saw a positive sales trend in August, with sales volume doubling for the "Ten-Year" product in the first half of 2025 [2][5] - The company anticipates better performance than the industry average in Q3 2025 due to strategic focus on the mid-to-high-end market and channel clearing efforts [2][3] Pricing and Channel Management - Shede Liquor has implemented measures to stabilize prices, including leveling wholesale prices, providing value-added services instead of physical gifts, and simplifying policies to improve efficiency [6][7] - The company has managed to keep price fluctuations for its products within 10% through inventory clearance and controlled shipments [7] - 70% of frontline sales personnel received bonuses in the first half of 2025, indicating effective incentive structures [6][7] Product Strategy - The strategic positioning of Shede Liquor is focused on mid-to-high-end products and popular light bottle wines [4][11] - The company is targeting stable growth in products priced below 300 yuan, while also promoting new products like "Wisdom Shede" in weaker regions [5][11] Sales Team and Channel Health - The sales team remains stable despite industry pressures, with a focus on retaining and incentivizing mid-to-senior level sales personnel [9] - The company emphasizes that sales volume must exceed invoice numbers to ensure channel health, moving away from a purely invoice-driven approach [8] Revenue Growth and New Initiatives - Online sales have shown significant growth, contributing 340 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 31% increase year-on-year [4][13] - The company has developed a dedicated app for customized services and has engaged in partnerships with celebrities for product launches, enhancing market reach [13][15] Market Development - Shede Liquor is focusing on developing key base markets such as Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan, with plans to grow these markets significantly over the next 3-5 years [14] - The company is also exploring new growth points through innovative channel models and internal growth strategies, moving beyond traditional inventory management [15] Conclusion - Shede Liquor is strategically navigating a challenging industry landscape by focusing on mid-to-high-end products, stabilizing pricing, and enhancing sales team effectiveness while exploring new growth avenues through technology and market development initiatives [2][4][11][15]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on September 24, with Luzhou Laojiao leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Luzhou Laojiao (code: 000568) closed at 131.91, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 62,600 and a transaction value of 826 million [2] - Kweichow Moutai (code: 600519) closed at 1442.00, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 30,700 and a transaction value of 4.443 billion [2] - Yanghe Brewery (code: 002304) closed at 69.11, down 0.30%, with a trading volume of 31,300 and a transaction value of 217 million [2] - Wuliangye (code: 000858) closed at 122.37, up 0.15%, with a trading volume of 130,600 and a transaction value of 1.598 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 394 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 93.998 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among individual stocks, with some stocks like Jinhuijiu (code: 600809) showing a net inflow of 369.30 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor Industry is facing short-term pressure on performance due to rising production costs and a competitive market environment, but is implementing strategies to stabilize prices and reduce inventory, which may lead to long-term growth opportunities [1][2][7]. Group 1: Business Performance - In 2024, Shede Liquor's revenue is expected to decline due to the overall adjustment in the liquor industry and increased competition, particularly in the mid-to-high-end product segment [2][7]. - The company reported a significant increase in first-quarter performance, with revenue reaching 1.576 billion yuan, a 75.68% increase quarter-on-quarter, and net profit surpassing the entire previous year's figure at 346.1 million yuan [7][8]. - The company's gross profit margin has decreased year-on-year due to rising material and labor costs, despite efforts to maintain stable pricing and inventory levels [2][4]. Group 2: Inventory and Production - Shede Liquor confirmed that there is no inventory backlog, and the inventory levels are within a reasonable range, with no significant changes in the aging structure of products [3][4]. - The company is expanding production capacity, with an expected annual increase of 60,000 tons of raw liquor and 342,500 tons of raw liquor storage capacity, which will enhance its long-term production capabilities [5][6]. - The company is focusing on a strategy of "strong sales, inventory reduction, and price stability," which includes offering sales discounts of 3%-5% on various products to promote inventory turnover [2][4]. Group 3: Financial Health - The company's cash flow situation has improved, with cash reserves reaching 1.58 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter, indicating a positive trend in financial health [4][7]. - Shede Liquor's total monetary funds decreased to 1.543 billion yuan by the end of 2024, primarily due to reduced sales returns and increased dividends, which is considered a normal phenomenon in the industry [4][5]. - The company is expected to manage its financial obligations effectively, with cash reserves sufficient to support approximately two months of operational expenses [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The long-term strategy of focusing on aged liquor production is expected to yield higher market and brand value over time, despite short-term debt pressures from expansion projects [4][6]. - The overall liquor industry is projected to maintain stable development, with increasing market concentration, which may benefit Shede Liquor due to its advantages in brand, quality, and distribution channels [8]. - The company is optimistic about future growth, anticipating that the benefits of its aged liquor strategy will become more pronounced by 2025 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor achieved significant improvement in its Q1 2025 performance, with net profit surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a successful strategic shift towards rational growth and inventory reduction [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.576 billion yuan, a 75.68% increase compared to the previous quarter [2] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was 346 million yuan, exceeding the total net profit of 345.8 million yuan for the entire year of 2024 [2] - Operating cash flow net amount increased by 106.76% year-on-year, indicating improved financial health [2] - Inventory costs decreased by 11.25% year-on-year, and management expenses fell by 25.24% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a "stable price, control inventory, and strengthen sales" strategy, leading to a gradual return of inventory to reasonable levels [4] - E-commerce sales grew to 205 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 36.71% year-on-year increase, showcasing the effectiveness of dual-channel optimization [4] - The company is focusing on core products to strengthen market presence, with significant growth in sales of major products during the Spring Festival [4]. Brand Development - Shede Liquor has engaged in various high-visibility marketing initiatives, including sponsorship of cultural events and programs, enhancing brand exposure [5] - The company is actively pursuing a "C-oriented" brand strategy, integrating ecological, cultural, and old liquor elements to enhance brand influence and consumer value [4][5]. Long-term Growth Strategy - The company is developing a liquor tourism integration project, which aims to enhance long-term quality development and local economic growth [6][7] - The project includes the establishment of an ecological brewing industrial park and a cultural resort, aiming to merge international perspectives with Chinese elements [7]. - The resilience and strategic focus on old liquor are expected to yield long-term benefits, with a strong certainty of performance improvement in 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's 2024 annual report reflects a stable performance amid industry challenges, with a focus on its "old liquor strategy" to maintain competitiveness and prepare for long-term growth [1][5][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shede Liquor achieved operating revenue of 5.357 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.30 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 142 million yuan, which represents 40.94% of the net profit [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively managing inventory and pricing to adapt to a challenging market environment, emphasizing quality over quantity in its growth strategy [2][4] - Shede Liquor's total assets reached 11.802 billion yuan, an increase of 5.348 billion yuan since 2020, while net assets grew to 6.808 billion yuan, nearly doubling in the same period [2] Market Development - The company is expanding its e-commerce presence, with sales through this channel reaching 446 million yuan in 2024 [2] - Shede Liquor has successfully entered 36 countries and regions, with average sales growth of 200% in two key markets [3] Product and Brand Strategy - The product lineup has been optimized, with strategic offerings like "Taste Shede" solidifying its position in the mid-to-high-end market [3] - The brand's influence is being enhanced through various marketing initiatives, including the "Shede Wisdom Characters" campaign and regional promotional events [3] Quality and Standards - Shede Liquor is transitioning to a "standard year," having established two significant industry standards for old liquor, enhancing its competitive edge [5][6] - The company is investing in capacity expansion and sustainability initiatives, including a carbon neutrality action plan [6] Future Outlook - For 2025, Shede Liquor aims to leverage its "old liquor strategy" to navigate market challenges, focusing on channel development and brand enhancement [7] - The company anticipates continued growth potential as it refines its inventory and capitalizes on the benefits of its established strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor Industry (600702.SH) anticipates a significant decrease in net profit for 2024, projecting a range of 320 million to 420 million yuan, influenced by the broader challenges facing the liquor industry, including demand slowdown and high inventory levels [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 320 million and 420 million yuan for 2024, with a non-GAAP net profit forecast of 366 million to 466 million yuan [1] - Despite the performance pressure, the pricing structure of core products remains stable, with prices for key products like Wisdom Shede and Taste Shede showing increases compared to the beginning of 2024 [1] - The company is implementing a "control volume and support price" strategy to assist distributors and enhance sales, while also increasing investment in brand building [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, facing challenges such as demand slowdown, high inventory, and price declines, leading to increased competition among companies [1] - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association has called for the industry to proactively lower expectations and manage profits to secure future growth [1] - Analysts believe that despite the current profitability challenges, Shede Liquor's differentiated advantage with "old liquor + famous liquor" remains intact, suggesting a potential for recovery in 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Shede Liquor plans to focus on brand enhancement, channel development, and consumer cultivation, aiming to improve overall competitiveness and ensure stable growth [2] - The company has initiated significant projects in innovation and production expansion, which may impact short-term performance but are expected to enhance product quality and market competitiveness in the long run [2] - Analysts predict that with inventory improvements and continued product releases, Shede Liquor may experience a rebound in growth in 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing a significant downturn characterized by declining prices, increased inventory, and shifting consumer preferences, indicating a deep adjustment phase rather than a temporary fluctuation [4][15][22]. Industry Overview - The baijiu industry is facing a dual decline in both volume and price, with a reported production volume of 191.59 million kiloliters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [5]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, where actual market prices fall below manufacturer guidance, particularly affecting the 800-1500 yuan price range [5]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in sales [11]. Company Performance - Major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing signs of slowing growth, with Moutai's revenue growth target for 2025 set at 9%, the lowest since 2016 [17]. - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 527.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 4.19% [17]. - Liquor companies are increasingly resorting to price cuts to manage high inventory levels, creating a downward pressure on prices [12]. Consumer Trends - The primary consumer demographic for baijiu is undergoing a generational shift, with younger consumers (born after 1995) showing diverse preferences for alcoholic beverages, including wine and craft beer [24]. - Health consciousness among younger consumers is changing drinking habits, leading to a decline in traditional drinking culture [25]. - The rise of new sales channels, such as e-commerce and community group buying, is disrupting traditional distribution models and further compressing profit margins for liquor companies [25]. Market Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are emerging structural opportunities in the market, particularly in the lower price segments (100-300 yuan) where demand is shifting [26]. - The focus on family and friend gatherings as primary consumption scenarios is creating new opportunities for products that cater to these social settings [33]. - Companies that can adapt to these changes by enhancing their product offerings and marketing strategies are likely to survive and thrive in the long term [26].

Core Insights - Tuo Pai has partnered with Meituan Shanguo to enhance its marketing strategy for the upcoming double festival, focusing on an O2O (online-to-offline) marketing loop that combines online exposure and offline consumption experiences [1][2][3] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - The collaboration aims to provide consumers with an "average 30 minutes delivery" experience, aligning with Tuo Pai's main IP activities to boost brand presence and market penetration [2][3] - Tuo Pai is implementing a dual-channel strategy by integrating online and offline resources, with a focus on five major cities to enhance sales conversion during the double festival [3][4] - The marketing campaign includes a special promotion in selected restaurants, targeting young consumers and enhancing brand engagement through immersive experiences [4][6] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The white liquor industry is witnessing a shift from "planned stockpiling" to "immediate consumption," with instant retail reshaping consumer behavior [3][6] - According to Guoxin Securities, the instant retail market for alcoholic beverages is projected to reach a scale of 600-900 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual growth rate of 10%-17% [3] Group 3: Brand Engagement - The upgraded "Jiu Zhuo Ge Shen" IP focuses on creating emotional connections with consumers through music and social interactions, enhancing brand recall and purchase intent [7][10] - Tuo Pai's marketing efforts are designed to resonate with younger demographics and penetrate lower-tier markets, leveraging high interactivity and social attributes [7][12] Group 4: E-commerce Performance - Tuo Pai's parent company, Shede Liquor, has also seen significant growth in e-commerce, with a reported sales increase of 31.68% year-on-year in the first half of the year [10][12] - The strategic partnership with JD.com and the launch of a new low-alcohol product have contributed to a strong market response, indicating a successful expansion into e-commerce channels [10][12]