Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3665.92 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.50% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 1,905.21 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 27 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including Desay SV, Wanli Stone, and *ST Guohua, showing divergence rates of 4.85%, 4.59%, and 4.49% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that just crossed the annual line include China CNR, Ninghu Expressway, and Huatian Technology [1] Top Divergence Rate Stocks - The top three stocks with the highest divergence rates are: - Desay SV (7.44% increase, 4.72% turnover rate, latest price 113.91 yuan, divergence rate 4.85%) [1] - Wanli Stone (4.93% increase, 5.82% turnover rate, latest price 31.30 yuan, divergence rate 4.59%) [1] - *ST Guohua (4.97% increase, 2.12% turnover rate, latest price 8.87 yuan, divergence rate 4.49%) [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Performance - Other stocks with significant performance include: - Kairun Co., Ltd. (4.82% increase, 4.94% turnover rate, latest price 22.40 yuan, divergence rate 4.08%) [1] - *ST Qingyan (3.39% increase, 4.36% turnover rate, latest price 14.64 yuan, divergence rate 3.05%) [1] - Huai Bei Mining (2.80% increase, 1.18% turnover rate, latest price 13.24 yuan, divergence rate 2.41%) [1]

据淮北矿业官网微信公众号介绍，南京航运公司是淮北矿业集团所属唯一水路运输物流平台，主要从事矿石、煤炭、辅料、水泥熟料和各种干散货的水路运 输业务，运输范围覆盖长江沿线内河、长江、国内沿海、国际远洋。公司自有运输船舶11艘，总载重25万吨，可控运力近80万吨，运输能力达到1500万吨。 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者于江苏省交通运输厅行政处罚栏获悉，8月10日，淮北矿业集团南京航运有限公司（下称"淮北矿业南京航运公司"）收行政处罚决定 书，被罚原因为"遮挡船名"。 | | | | Q 企业使用信息 经营分常名录 严重违法失信名单 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 清输入企业名称、统一社会信用代码或注册号 | | | | 淮北矿业集团南京航运有限公司 | | | 存款(在营、开业、在册) | | 发送服告 | | 统一社会信用代码:91320100742398003R | | | | | | | 注册号： | | | | | 信息分享 | | 法定代表人:王更生 | | | | | | | 置记机关:南京市市场监督管理局 | | | | | 值都打印 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.39%，A股成交量577.79亿股，成交金额8510.42亿 元，比上一个交易日减少1.42%。个股方面，1611只个股上涨，其中涨停29只，3595只个股下跌，其中 跌停4只。从申万行业来看，煤炭、石油石化、综合等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.76%、1.42%、1.31%； 国防军工、建筑材料、电力设备等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.59%、0.80%、0.68%。 | 社会服务 | | | | 科锐国际 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | -0.68 | 718.27 | -4.63 | 禾望电气 | -9.88 | | 建筑材料 | -0.80 | 87.93 | -26.11 | 天山股份 | -5.76 | | 国防军工 | -1.59 | 470.25 | 2.25 | 佳驰科技 | -7.77 | | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3660.38 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.35% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 858.514 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - 18 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including Desay SV, Wanli Stone, and Huaibei Mining, showing deviation rates of 4.94%, 4.03%, and 3.10% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the annual line include Kweichow Moutai, Ninghu Expressway, and Unisplendour [1] Top Stocks by Deviation Rate - The top three stocks with the highest deviation rates are: - Desay SV: 7.53% increase, trading at 114.00 yuan, deviation rate of 4.94% [1] - Wanli Stone: 4.36% increase, trading at 31.13 yuan, deviation rate of 4.03% [1] - Huaibei Mining: 3.49% increase, trading at 13.33 yuan, deviation rate of 3.10% [1] Additional Notable Stocks - Other stocks with significant performance include: - ST Guohua: 2.72% increase, trading at 8.68 yuan, deviation rate of 2.26% [1] - Kairun Technology: 2.95% increase, trading at 22.00 yuan, deviation rate of 2.22% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu: 2.19% increase, trading at 190.70 yuan, deviation rate of 1.86% [1]

Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.80 percentage points, ranking last among 30 industries [1][14][15] - The decline is attributed to weak demand for thermal power, leading to a continuous drop in coal prices and a significant decrease in coal company profits, raising concerns about the sustainability of high dividends in the coal industry [1][15] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the proportion of active funds holding coal stocks decreased to 0.36%, down 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025. Index funds' holdings also fell to 0.71%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [1][19] - The combined holding of both types of funds in the coal sector is now 0.52%, down 0.09 percentage points from Q1 2025 [1][19] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The complete cost curve for 16 listed thermal coal companies indicates that the complete cost per ton of coal is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting a port price of 640 CNY/ton. The port coal price fell to 618 CNY/ton in early June, indicating that over 20% of coal production capacity could face losses at this price level [2] - The current coal price is considered low in terms of valuation, as it is near the cost line, which could lead to production cuts if prices remain below cost [2] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that significant policy interventions were necessary for coal price reversals in 2008, 2015, and 2020. Each price bottom was accompanied by government actions to stimulate demand or control supply [3] - The report emphasizes that policy intervention is a necessary condition for coal price recovery, with expectations for potential government actions to support prices in the current context [3] Thermal Coal Price Outlook - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price of 618 CNY/ton may represent a bottom, with potential for recovery driven by improved demand in the second half of 2025 [4][6] - Two scenarios are outlined: an optimistic scenario where demand improves significantly, and a pessimistic scenario where demand remains weak, potentially leading to further price declines [6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops due to supply-demand imbalances, with low-sulfur coking coal prices falling to around 1100 CNY/ton. The report indicates that this decline has already reflected market expectations [5][7] - The report highlights the importance of inventory rebuilding and the enforcement of production limits to support price recovery in the coking coal market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with significant earnings elasticity like Lu'an Huanneng and Jinneng Holding [8] - The report also notes the potential for price recovery in coking coal, with expectations for prices to rise to a range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton in the long term [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term price inversion of annual coal contracts has been resolved, boosting market confidence as the Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal spot price rose to 667 RMB/ton on August 4, 2025, exceeding the annual contract price for the same grade coal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, leading to a decline in contract fulfillment rates during this period [3]. - The combination of peak summer demand and anti-involution policies has accelerated the rise in market coal prices, restoring market confidence [3]. Group 2: Price Expectations - The bottom for coal prices has been established, with expectations for price increases potentially exceeding market forecasts [3]. - The rise in coal prices began with thermal coal, but the increase in coking coal has outpaced expectations, indicating a stronger market than anticipated [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Implications - Coal stocks are responding positively to favorable market conditions, with significant upward potential remaining [3]. - The market is increasingly focused on policy implementation and supply-demand dynamics, with several short-term supply constraints expected to benefit coal prices [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coal, Pingmei Shares, and Huaibei Mining, which are considered elastic stocks [4]. - Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, and China Shenhua are still viewed as having high allocation value [4].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with an upward adjustment [4] Core Viewpoints - The long-term price inversion of annual contracts has been resolved, boosting market confidence. The previous inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, leading to a decline in contract fulfillment rates. The combination of peak summer demand and anti-involution policies has accelerated the rise in market coal prices, restoring market confidence [1][2] - The bottom of coal prices has been reached, with expectations for price increases potentially exceeding market forecasts. The current rise in coal prices began with thermal coal, and the upward momentum for coking coal has outpaced that of thermal coal. The low point of the year has passed, and it is expected that prices will not decline again in the second half of the year [2] - The resolution of the long-term price inversion is likely to trigger positive feedback, enhancing contract fulfillment rates, improving spot demand, and further increasing spot prices. Coal stocks have shown a strong response to positive news, with significant upward potential remaining [2] Summary by Sections - **Market Dynamics**: The recent increase in the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port has surpassed the annual contract price, indicating a shift in market dynamics. The market is currently experiencing a recovery in confidence due to the resolution of the long-term price inversion [1][2] - **Investment Recommendations**: With the acceleration of coal price increases, coal stocks are expected to perform well. Key stocks to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Pingmei Shenma, and Huaibei Mining. Leading coal companies such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua also present high allocation value [2]

从中证煤炭指数持仓样本的行业来看，能源占比100.00%。 数据统计显示，中证煤炭指数近一个月上涨6.07%，近三个月上涨8.85%，年至今下跌7.58%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样 本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 从指数持仓来看，中证煤炭指数十大权重分别为：陕西煤业（9.8%）、中国神华（8.74%）、兖矿能源 （8.01%）、中煤能源（7.66%）、山西焦煤（7.07%）、潞安环能（5.75%）、美锦能源（4.81%）、淮 北矿业（4.67%）、华阳股份（4.51%）、平煤股份（4.22%）。 金融界8月6日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证煤炭指数 (中证煤炭，399998)上涨2.24%，报2042.16点， 成交额103.82亿元。 从中证煤炭指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比83.88%、深圳证券交易所 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices for thermal and coking coal are expected to continue rising due to the "anti-involution" measures and capacity checks in the industry [2][6][10]. Group 1: Industry Hot Events Review - Key events in July include the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law, which emphasizes the dual focus on development and protection, and the initiation of capacity checks in major coal-producing provinces [5][7]. - The National Energy Administration has begun a special inspection of coal mines in key provinces to ensure production does not exceed announced capacities [7][14]. - The coal industry is experiencing a shift towards higher-end, intelligent production methods, as indicated by recent inspections and government encouragement for transformation [9][10]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, while import growth is also declining, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][26]. - The report notes that the number of coal mines is decreasing, with a significant concentration of production capacity in larger, more advanced mines [12][39]. - The average cost of coal production has shown significant variation among different mining companies, impacting overall pricing strategies [12][10]. Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - There is a marginal improvement in demand for thermal coal, driven by recovery in steel profits, which is expected to support coking coal prices [6][26]. - The report provides a supply-demand balance table, indicating that coal consumption is projected to grow slightly, while production is expected to stabilize [27][39]. Group 4: Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the seasonal adjustments in national railway freight rates could lead to increased volatility in coal prices, with potential for rapid price increases during peak demand seasons [15][17]. - The low yield of ten-year government bonds enhances the attractiveness of coal companies with high dividend yields, suggesting a favorable investment environment [19][20]. - The anticipated policy changes in Indonesia regarding coal production quotas are expected to stabilize coal prices by aligning actual production with target outputs [21][25].

Group 1 - The price of coking coal in Hebei has been raised by 50/55 yuan per ton, with the new price for first-grade wet quenching coke set at 1520 yuan per ton, effective from 0:00 on the 4th [1] - Downstream steel mills still have a certain profit margin, and the high-level iron water output is fluctuating, indicating a generally positive market sentiment that supports coking coal prices [1] - The recent coal mine capacity inspection did not significantly impact production, and the supply of coking coal remains sufficient, although there is a growing fear of high prices in the market [1] Group 2 - The position of coal as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, with macroeconomic weakness affecting demand but supply rigidity and rising costs supporting coal prices [2] - Coal companies generally have healthy asset reports, and improved dividend ratios give coal stocks a comparative advantage [2] - Companies with significant elasticity in coking coal include Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [3]