反内卷，周期的价值轮回 20250613 摘要 2025 年中报业绩预喜率接近 1/3，科技制造及供需偏紧的周期板块预喜 率较高，如电子、化工、机械、汽车、电芯、有色、医药等行业公司数 量靠前。关注中报能否建立或稳定长期预期。 二季度经济复苏动能仍待增强，呈现量增价减格局，工业企业利润承压， 实际现金盈利弱于账面盈利。投资策略应把握贴现率下降主线，聚焦业 绩支撑和产业催化密集赛道，以及反内卷赛道。 7-8 月反内卷困境反转策略有望走强，关注产能出清时间久、库存水平 低、竞争格局优化的板块。大盘股优于小盘股，重视边际上具备业绩增 长或困境反转可能的大众盘股票。 推荐科技板块（军工、电子、创新药及游戏）、供给扰动资源品（有色 化工）及受益资本市场改革的保险券商。困境反转方面关注钢铁、建材、 光伏及养殖业等板块。 稀土价格上涨受中美谈判影响，内盘价格提前启动，标志着进入第三阶 段主升期。关注广晟有色、盛和资源、北方稀土、中国稀土等标的，以 及金力永磁、宁波韵升和正海磁材等核心磁材企业。 Q&A 目前中报季的披露情况如何？各行业的业绩表现有何特点？ 截至 2025 年 7 月 13 日，全 A 股共有 2,486 家 ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to enter the next phase of an upward trend, with potential to break through the peak in the second half of 2024 due to existing discrepancies in market expectations [1][14]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of approximately RMB 23.2 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [9]. - Limin Co. forecasts a net profit of between RMB 260 million and RMB 280 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 719.25% to 782.27% [11]. - China Shenhua projects a net profit of between RMB 23.6 billion and RMB 25.6 billion for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year decline of 13.2% to 20% due to decreased coal sales volume and average selling prices [13]. Corporate Actions - Fuda Alloy is planning to acquire at least 51% of the shares in Guangda Electronics, a company specializing in electronic paste products, which will enhance its product offerings in the solar energy sector [12]. Regulatory Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has released new self-regulatory guidelines for companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, allowing 32 unprofitable companies to enter the growth tier [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined key points for the integration of information technology and industrialization, emphasizing support for AI applications in manufacturing [5]. Market Trends - Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.63%, S&P 500 down 0.33%, and Nasdaq down 0.22%, while large tech stocks showed mixed performance [4]. - International oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by $1.88 to $68.45 per barrel, a 2.82% increase, and Brent crude oil up by $1.72 to $70.36 per barrel, a 2.51% increase [4]. - COMEX gold futures rose by $38.30 to $3,364.00 per ounce, a 1.15% increase, while silver futures surged by $4.22 to $39.075, marking a new high since 2011 [4].

Industry News - The national insurance companies have fully implemented a long-cycle assessment mechanism of over three years, with the addition of five-year cycle indicators. The net asset return rate will now include a five-year cycle indicator, with weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% for the current year, three-year, and five-year indicators respectively [1][8] - The adjustment of the national basic medical insurance, maternity insurance, and work-related injury insurance drug catalog, as well as the commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog, has officially started. The new commercial insurance innovative drug catalog focuses on high innovation and significant clinical value drugs that cannot be included in the basic catalog due to exceeding the "basic protection" positioning [2][10] - The China Securities Association has released 28 measures to promote high-quality development in the securities industry, focusing on improving self-regulatory management and enhancing service functions [3][9] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has published guidelines for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, allowing 32 existing unprofitable companies to enter the growth layer immediately, with no additional listing thresholds for new unprofitable companies [3][6] Company News - China Shenhua announced a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.2% to 20% [14] - Fuda Alloy plans to acquire at least 51% of the shares of TOPCon battery silver paste company Guangda Electronics [15] - Huaxi Securities expects a year-on-year increase in net profit of 1025% to 1354% for the first half of the year [15] - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 54% [16] - Sanhe Pile expects a year-on-year increase in net profit of 3091% to 3889% for the first half of the year [17] - Limin Co. anticipates a year-on-year increase in net profit of 719.25% to 782.27% for the first half of the year [17] - Lanqi Technology expects a year-on-year increase in net profit of 85.50% to 102.36% for the first half of the year [18] - Aopu Mai expects a net profit of approximately 37 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 53.28% [19] - China Jushi anticipates a year-on-year increase in net profit of 71.65% to 76.85% for the first half of the year [19] - Gaode Infrared expects a year-on-year increase in net profit of 735% to 957% for the first half of the year [19] - Degute is planning to acquire 100% of Haowei Technology, with stock resuming trading [19] - Kanghua Bio is planning a change of control, with stock suspended from trading [19] - Dongfang Caifu announced that its subsidiary Hafu Securities has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset trading services [20] - Galaxy Microelectronics plans to invest 310 million yuan to build the first phase of a high-end integrated circuit discrete device industrialization base [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes significant announcements from various listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, highlighting changes in control, major asset acquisitions, and performance forecasts for the first half of 2025. Group 1: Control Changes and Stock Suspension - Yangdian Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a stock suspension starting July 14, 2025, for up to 2 trading days [3] - Yuanli Co. is also planning to acquire control of Fujian Tongsheng New Materials Technology, resulting in a stock suspension starting July 14, 2025, for up to 10 trading days [5] - Kanghua Bio is planning a change in control, with stock suspension starting July 14, 2025, for up to 2 trading days [6] - Fuda Alloy is planning to acquire at least 51% of Guangda Electronics, which constitutes a major asset restructuring but will not change the actual controller [7] Group 2: Performance Forecasts - Limin Co. expects a net profit of 260 million to 280 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% due to rising sales and prices [9] - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 54% [10] - Chunqiu Electronics forecasts a net profit of 90 million to 110 million yuan for H1 2025, an increase of 236.05% to 310.72% [11] - Jinqilin expects a net profit of around 106 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 222.36% [12] - Beihua Co. anticipates a net profit of 98 million to 111 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 182.72% to 220.23% [14] - Guojin Securities expects a net profit of 1.092 billion to 1.137 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140% to 150% [15] - Jiu Yuan Silver Sea forecasts a net profit of 26.49 million to 32.25 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 130% to 180% [16] - Lankai Technology expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 85.5% to 102.36% [17] - Changcheng Securities anticipates a net profit of 1.335 billion to 1.407 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 85% to 95% [18] - Weilan Lithium Core expects a net profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 79.29% to 115.15% [19] - Yinlong Co. forecasts a net profit of 161 million to 181 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [21] - Aopumai expects a net profit of approximately 37 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53.28% [22] - Bailong Dongfang anticipates a net profit of 350 million to 410 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.21% to 75.97% [23] - Shanghai Electric expects a net profit of 1.754 billion to 2.087 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.18% to 57.27% [24] - Huazhong Securities expects a net profit of 1.035 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 44.94% [25] - Bailong Chuangyuan anticipates a net profit of 171 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.68% [26] - Chengyi Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of 107 million to 119 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 55% [27] - Jinhai Biological anticipates a net profit of 127 million to 141 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 55% [28] - Kanda New Materials expects a net profit of 50 million to 55 million yuan for H1 2025, turning from loss to profit [29] - China Shenhua expects a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% to 15.7% [30] - ST Songfa anticipates a net profit of 580 million to 700 million yuan for H1 2025, turning from loss to profit [31] - Chengxing Co. expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan for H1 2025, turning from loss to profit [33] - Ningbo Fubon anticipates a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan for H1 2025, turning from loss to profit [34] - ST Yundong expects a loss of 100 million to 150 million yuan for H1 2025, worsening from the previous year [35] - Kairuide expects a loss of 15 million to 22 million yuan for H1 2025, turning from profit to loss [36] Group 3: Shareholding Changes - Defu Technology's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.04% [38] - Jinzhen Co.'s shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3.04% [39] - Shikong Technology's shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 3% [40] - Qilu Bank's shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 1.1% [41] - Zhongci Electronics' shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 1% [42] - Jiamei Packaging's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1% [43] - Saike Xide's shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 1% [44] - Gongda High-tech's general manager plans to reduce their holdings by up to 0.3424% [46] - Qingyuan Co.'s shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 273,800 shares [47] Group 4: Major Contracts - Dashijiang expects to win a procurement project worth 122 million yuan [49] - Robotech signed significant daily operational contracts worth approximately 14.18 million USD [50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal are on the rebound, suggesting a turning point in the market [4][12] - The fundamentals for thermal coal remain favorable, with a current price of 632 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal, reflecting a 3.8% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY/ton earlier this year [3][4] - Coking coal prices have also seen significant increases, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1350 CNY/ton, a 9.76% rise from the previous low of 1230 CNY/ton [4][20] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY/ton, potentially exceeding 700 CNY/ton if favorable fundamentals persist [4][12] - Coking coal is more influenced by market dynamics, with current prices indicating a state of overselling, and supply-side tightening expected due to policy changes [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The report highlights a slight decrease of 1.08% in the coal sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points [7] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is 11.48, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 1.18, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Market Insights - As of July 11, the inventory at ports has decreased by 19% from the highest level of 3316.3 million tons earlier this year, currently standing at 26.89 million tons [3][4] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased to 2.148 million tons, driven by seasonal demand [4][19] Coking Coal Market Insights - The report notes a significant rebound in coking coal prices, with futures rising from 719 CNY to 913 CNY, a cumulative increase of 27% [4][20] - The average daily pig iron production remains high at 2.408 million tons, although there are signs of potential declines due to seasonal factors [4][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic of cycles and dividends for investment in the coal sector, identifying four main lines for stock selection: dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [5][13] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The summer national coal trading conference was held, indicating stable coal supply and demand. The China Electricity Council forecasts a 5%-6% year-on-year increase in national electricity consumption for 2025, with an overall balanced power supply and demand situation [1] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise, leading to a strong coal price trend. The report suggests that the long-term outlook for the sector remains optimistic, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 628 RMB/ton, up 1.06% week-on-week. The average price of mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi was 475 RMB/ton, unchanged [2] - The average temperature in 28 major cities was 31.67°C, indicating a typical seasonal pattern [3] Production and Capacity - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 62.3%, a 2.6 percentage point increase week-on-week but down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 89.90%, down 0.39 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year [3] Inventory Levels - As of July 11, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port were 5.6 million tons, down 1.75% week-on-week but at a high level for the same period. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was 26.89 million tons, down 2.36% week-on-week [4] Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are projected to have stable earnings with an "Accumulate" rating. For instance, China Shenhua's EPS is forecasted to be 2.5 RMB in 2025, with a PE ratio of 15 [5]

Mergers and Acquisitions - Fuda Alloy is planning to purchase at least 51% of the shares of Guangda Electronics in cash, with the specific acquisition ratio to be further verified and negotiated. After the transaction, Guangda Electronics will become a subsidiary of Fuda Alloy [1] - Yuanli Co. is planning to acquire control of Tongsheng Co. Due to uncertainties regarding the matter, the company's securities have been suspended since July 14, with an expected suspension period of no more than 10 trading days [2] - Degute is planning to acquire 100% of Haowei Technology through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, with the transaction expected to constitute a major asset restructuring without changing the actual controller of the company. The stock will resume trading on July 14 [3] Earnings Disclosure - Guojin Securities expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.092 billion to 1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 140% to 150%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be 1.036 billion to 1.081 billion yuan, up 130% to 140% [4] - Weilan Lithium expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million to 360 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.29% to 115.15% [5] - Lanke Technology anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.50% to 102.36%. The expected operating revenue is approximately 2.633 billion yuan, up about 58.17% year-on-year [6] - China Shenhua expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% to 20.0%, primarily due to a decline in coal sales volume and average selling prices [7] Shareholding Changes - Qilu Bank announced that Chongqing Huayu plans to reduce its stake by no more than 1.1% of the company's shares, amounting to a maximum of 60.4381 million shares, through block trading within two months from the announcement date [8] - Shikong Technology received a notification from shareholder Zhou Lei, who plans to reduce her holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares, totaling up to 2.9775 million shares [9][10] - Saike Xide announced that major shareholder Zhang Haiying plans to reduce her stake by no more than 1% of the company's shares, which amounts to a maximum of 1.0614 million shares, through centralized bidding and block trading within three months from the announcement date [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the relative value of coal dividends in the context of the recent highs in the banking sector, suggesting that coal dividends remain attractive due to ongoing inflows from insurance funds into the stock market [2][7] - It emphasizes the potential for significant upside in the dividend yield of China Shenhua, estimating a range of 6% to 46% based on various benchmarks, with an average of around 27% [7] - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to experience a positive market response due to improving fundamentals and seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of high temperatures and tight supply conditions [7][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.67% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [6][20] - Year-to-date, the coal sector has declined by 8.5%, ranking last among all sectors [7] Price Trends - As of July 11, the market price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 632 CNY/ton, up 9 CNY/ton week-on-week [20][44] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1350 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 120 CNY/ton [6][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a slow recovery in supply, with downstream purchasing sentiment remaining positive, leading to expectations of continued price increases for coal [6][21] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 5.699 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.6% week-on-week but a year-on-year increase [21][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coal sector's fundamentals and the potential for a market rally driven by both supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [7][20] - It identifies key coal companies with strong dividend yields and stable earnings as attractive investment opportunities [10]

Corporate Announcements - Yangdian Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension of its stock from July 14, 2025, for up to 2 trading days [3] - Degute is planning to acquire 100% of Haowei Technology through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with stock resuming trading on July 14, 2025 [4] - Yuanli Co. is planning to acquire control of Fujian Tongsheng New Materials Technology, resulting in a stock suspension starting July 14, 2025, for up to 10 trading days [5] - Kanghua Bio is also planning a change in control, with stock suspension from July 14, 2025, for up to 2 trading days [6] - Fuda Alloy is planning to acquire at least 51% of Guangda Electronics, which will constitute a major asset restructuring but will not change the actual controller [7] Performance Forecasts - Limin Co. expects a net profit of 260 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [9] - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 54% [10] - Chunqiu Electronics forecasts a net profit of 9 million to 11 million yuan, an increase of 236.05% to 310.72% year-on-year [12] - Jinqilin expects a net profit of approximately 106 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222.36% [13] - Beihua Co. anticipates a net profit of 98 million to 111 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 182.72% to 220.23% [14] - Guojin Securities expects a net profit of 1.092 billion to 1.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140% to 150% [15] - Jiuyuan Silver Sea forecasts a net profit of 26.49 million to 32.25 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130% to 180% [16] - Lankai Technology expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.5% to 102.36% [17] - Changcheng Securities anticipates a net profit of 1.335 billion to 1.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85% to 95% [18] - Weilan Lithium Core expects a net profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.29% to 115.15% [19] - Yinlong Co. forecasts a net profit of 161 million to 181 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [20] - Aopumai expects a net profit of approximately 37 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.28% [22] - Bailong Dongfang anticipates a net profit of 350 million to 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.21% to 75.97% [23] - Shanghai Electric expects a net profit of 1.754 billion to 2.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.18% to 57.27% [24] - Huazheng Securities reports a net profit of 1.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.94% [25] - Bailong Chuangyuan expects a net profit of 171 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.68% [26] - Chengyi Pharmaceutical anticipates a net profit of 107 million to 119 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 55% [27] - Jinhai Biological expects a net profit of 127 million to 141 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 55% [28] - Kangda New Materials forecasts a net profit of 50 million to 55 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [29] - China Shenhua expects a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% to 15.7% [30] - ST Songfa anticipates a net profit of 580 million to 700 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [31] - Chengxing Co. expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [32] - Bofubang anticipates a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [33] - ST Yundong expects a loss of 100 million to 150 million yuan, an increase in loss compared to the previous year [34] - Kerryde expects a loss of 15 million to 22 million yuan, turning from profit to loss [35] Shareholding Changes - Defu Technology's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 4.04% [37] - Jinzhen Co.'s shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3.04% [38] - Shikong Technology's shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 3% [39] - Qilu Bank's shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 1.1% [40] - Zhongci Electronics' shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 1% [41] - Jiamei Packaging's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1% [42] - Saike Xide's shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 1% [43] - Gongda High-Tech's general manager plans to reduce their holdings by up to 0.3424% [44] - Qingyuan Co.'s shareholder plans to reduce their holdings by up to 273,800 shares [45] Major Contracts - Dash Intelligent has been pre-awarded a procurement project worth 122 million yuan [46] - Robotech has signed significant daily operational contracts amounting to approximately 1.418 million USD [48]

Core Viewpoint - China's largest coal producer and seller, China Shenhua, is expected to see a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 due to lower coal sales volume and prices, but there are optimistic expectations for increased coal demand in the third quarter due to high summer temperatures [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Shenhua anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 23.6 billion yuan and 25.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.2% to 20.0% [1] - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to decreased coal sales volume and average selling prices, leading to reduced profitability in the coal segment [1] - The company reported a total coal production of 165.4 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while sales volume fell by 10.9% to 204.9 million tons [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average price of thermal coal at Guangzhou Port was 780.5 yuan per ton, down 15.8% year-on-year, while coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 38.8% to 1,378.7 yuan per ton [2] - The overall coal price has seen a decline due to weak demand and high inventory levels, with the second quarter experiencing significant pressure on coal prices [2] - As of July 4, 2025, national electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, indicating a strong demand for electricity driven by high temperatures [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express optimism for increased coal demand in the third quarter due to high summer temperatures, which are expected to support thermal coal consumption [3] - The report anticipates that the demand for thermal coal will be bolstered by reduced hydropower output and a slowdown in wind and solar generation, creating opportunities for thermal power generation [3] - The overall outlook for coal demand is expected to improve, particularly in the context of high temperatures driving daily coal consumption [3]