Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070006 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 乘用车 | | | Email：baizz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,633.37 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,509.78 | | 市价(元) | 130.12 | | 市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | 相关报告 1、《赛力斯（601127.SH）：鸿蒙智 行合作典范，高确定性豪华 SUV 龙 头》2025-02-20 赛力斯（601127.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 16 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the patent application by Seres Automotive for an automatic sensing vehicle trash can, which simplifies usage by eliminating the need for manual operation [1] - Ford Motor Company is recalling nearly 700,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to potential fuel injector failures that could lead to fuel leaks and increased fire risk [2] - BMW's 7 Series is set to undergo a mid-cycle refresh, featuring redesigned split headlights and a full-width tail light bar, enhancing its luxury design [3] Group 2 - Stellantis has decided to abandon its hydrogen fuel cell vehicle project, citing limited infrastructure and high capital requirements as key reasons for this decision [4] - The company will not proceed with the production of its new hydrogen-powered Pro One series trucks, originally planned for mass production in France and Poland [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% on July 16, with 14 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the social services and automotive sectors, which increased by 1.13% and 1.07% respectively [1] - The steel and banking sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 1.28% and 0.74% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 14.265 billion yuan, with 12 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The public utilities sector had the highest net inflow of 2.823 billion yuan despite a 0.20% decline, followed by the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, which rose by 0.95% with a net inflow of 2.095 billion yuan [1] Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector rose by 1.07% with a net capital inflow of 1.865 billion yuan, comprising 276 stocks, of which 228 rose and 45 fell [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Jianghuai Automobile (4.35 billion yuan), Top Group (2.42 billion yuan), and Fuda Co. (2.27 billion yuan) [2] - The sector also saw 12 stocks with net outflows exceeding 30 million yuan, led by Sailis (-818.46 million yuan), Yue Ling Co. (-128.06 million yuan), and Hailian Jinhui (-80.58 million yuan) [3] Automotive Sector Capital Inflow and Outflow - Top inflow stocks included: - Jianghuai Automobile: +3.38%, turnover rate 3.16%, inflow 434.77 million yuan - Top Group: +3.51%, turnover rate 3.64%, inflow 241.54 million yuan - Fuda Co.: +10.01%, turnover rate 9.45%, inflow 226.50 million yuan [2] - Top outflow stocks included: - Sailis: -0.80%, turnover rate 1.36%, outflow -818.46 million yuan - Yue Ling Co.: -0.97%, turnover rate 34.31%, outflow -128.06 million yuan - Hailian Jinhui: -0.72%, turnover rate 16.98%, outflow -80.58 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - Mingyue Lake Laboratory was inaugurated in Liangjiang New Area, focusing on "science and technology innovation + industry" to create a new materials innovation hub [1] - The laboratory will concentrate on new energy storage materials, high-performance lightweight materials, smart materials, interdisciplinary frontier materials, material big data, and intelligent design [1] - Several cooperation agreements were signed with leading companies and research institutions, including Sairisi Group, Baosteel Metal Co., China Aluminum Group, and Changan Automobile Co., to collaborate on advanced material research, high-end equipment manufacturing, innovation platform construction, and industry standard formulation [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the company "赛里斯" (Sirius) and its performance in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Stock Performance**: Sirius's stock price has been fluctuating between 120 and 130, with a historical high of 149.89 reached on December 10, 2024. The stock has been in a consolidation phase due to concerns over new vehicle launches and sales performance [1]. - **Sales Performance**: Q1 sales were significantly impacted by a gap due to new vehicle launches, leading to a notable decline. However, the launch of the new M8 model in April has resulted in strong sales, alleviating concerns about the M9 model's performance [1][2]. - **Future Projections**: The company is expected to exceed Q2 performance expectations, with projected sales growth of approximately 101% compared to Q1, reaching around 180,000 units [4]. - **Profit Forecasts**: Q2 profits are estimated to be around 3 billion, with Q3 profits expected to approach 4 billion. The overall annual profit forecast is around 12 billion [5][7]. - **Production Capacity**: The company has indicated that production capacity is not an issue, with ongoing upgrades at the Phoenix factory to prepare for the M7 model launch [9]. - **Market Expansion**: Sirius is looking to accelerate its overseas expansion, particularly in markets where its models, such as the M9, are gaining popularity [10]. - **New Model Development**: There are expectations for new models to be launched in the future, with a focus on collaboration with Huawei for vehicle development [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Industry Context**: The overall automotive industry is experiencing a weak phase, which may impact sales and profitability across the sector. However, Sirius is positioned to capitalize on its unique offerings and market presence [2]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The current market conditions present a favorable investment opportunity for Sirius, given its strong product lineup and potential for growth in sales and profits [2][12]. - **Concerns Addressed**: Investor concerns regarding the future of new vehicle launches and collaboration with Huawei were addressed, emphasizing that new models are in the pipeline and that the partnership remains beneficial [11][12].

本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户为非公开交流活动未经中泰证券授权请勿对外传播本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频音频文字记录内容等信息感谢您的理解与配合中泰证券对违反上述要求的行为保留追究法律责任的权利 他今天啊就是启动这个港股的NDR他预计交易规模15到20亿元目标的话大概就是三季度就会啊上市啊就是其实是很快的嗯啊这这这是第一个点啊啊然后嗯第二个点的话就是呃赛斯的话他是有这个机器人的期权的其实我们在那个去年其实就可以看到他成立了 他在招聘机器人相关的这样的一些岗位所以这个期权的话是可以值得去期待的然后另外一点的话我觉得机器人这块的话他和华为的合作现在并没有官宣但是其实这个是有一个很合理的商业的逻辑在的对第三的第三的一点的话就是说 车端的话其实最近也有非常非常大的这样看点而且是有预期差的这是其实今年以来的话尤其过年二月三月以来大家觉得这个赛斯的车端是不是不太行呢销量上不去了一直有这样的一个担心以及包括了包括这个文件CM9发了之后以及M8发了之后 其实大家还是在继续的担心虽然大定很好嗯但是交付的话其实他的相对是比较慢的导致甚至有部分的啊这些投资者担心这个订单是不是会有些水分啊我们认为这啊这应该是完全是没有水分的 ...

推荐主要是基于他中长期的逻辑第一个点的话是因为国内的市场足够的大利润足够的丰厚第二个出口的话公司第一步去中东和欧洲那这个市场空间就更大了公司对标全球宝马这样的一个品牌打造世界级的领先豪华气质品牌这是他的中长期的逻辑和愿景那么第一个点就是市场中国市场到底有多大 因为公司近期两年的纬度应该是核心定位是20万到60万级别的SUV对于25年最主要的购买新车又是30万以上的SUV包括M8 M9那么这个市场空间是很大的24年30万以上的SUV的这个市场有200万台200万台出头其中进口有33万台国产 有170万台国产米头自主品牌大概占了一半还有一半左右是合资所以说其实还有很大的替代空间而且的话这个市场单车盈利性水平是非常好的这个单车净利率水平是可以做到一个10到15个点左右的也就是说一台车可以赚3到5万块钱 如果按照两百万台中国市场的一个SUV的级别的话,那么这个蛋糕市场应该是一个大几百亿接近一千亿的一个利润蛋糕。我们还仅仅说的是SUV,我们还没有考虑校车和其他品类的产品,所以说这个市场空间利润是非常丰厚的。第二个的话,公司计划在今年下半年或二十六年陆续逐步演绎全球化之路。 从我们月入跟踪的,根据鸿蒙日行的公众号,它每个 ...

Core Insights - Huawei is making significant moves in the embodied intelligence sector, recently launching the Huawei Cloud Embodied Intelligence Industry Joint Innovation Center in Shenzhen, which has attracted nine well-known companies, including six listed firms, to establish subsidiaries in this field [1][10] - The Huawei Developer Conference 2025 introduced the CloudRobo embodied intelligence platform, aiming to transform all connected entities into embodied intelligent robots, marking a strategic shift in the AI landscape [3][4] - The Chinese government has recognized "embodied intelligence" as a key component of future industries, indicating its importance in national strategic planning [3][4] Industry Trends - The market for embodied intelligence is projected to grow significantly, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by advancements in large model technologies [5][10] - Major companies like NVIDIA and Tesla are also investing in "large model + embodied intelligence" robotics, viewing intelligent robots as a second growth curve for their businesses [5][10] Huawei's Strategy - Huawei's approach mirrors its strategy in the automotive sector, focusing on providing a technological foundation and ecosystem collaboration rather than manufacturing end products [6][8] - The company aims to replicate the success of its automotive partnerships, such as with Seres, which transformed from a loss-making entity to one of China's top three car manufacturers with a market value exceeding 200 billion yuan [6][10] Regional Development - Shenzhen's Bao'an district is positioning itself as China's first "embodied intelligence port," fostering the growth of potential "unicorn" companies in this field [11][15] - The Huawei Cloud Embodied Intelligence Industry Joint Innovation Center is strategically located near significant tech hubs, enhancing collaboration and innovation within the industry [10][11] Collaborative Efforts - Huawei is engaging in partnerships with various companies to develop comprehensive solutions across different applications, including smart sorting, energy management, and intelligent healthcare [13][15] - The center has successfully attracted a diverse range of companies, from manufacturers to component developers, indicating a robust ecosystem for embodied intelligence [10][13]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Neutral" for the next six months, indicating expected performance in line with the market [53]. Core Insights - In June, retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a growth of 30% [4][44]. - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.41% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points [10][44]. - The overall PE-TTM for the automotive industry as of July 11 is 25.83, down by 0.12 from the previous week [11][44]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The automotive sector's performance from July 7 to July 11 showed a decline across various segments, with the passenger vehicle segment down by 1.43% and commercial vehicles down by 0.99% [10][44]. - The automotive services sector, however, increased by 3.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [10][44]. Valuation Levels - As of July 11, the PE-TTM for passenger vehicles is 25.11, for commercial vehicles is 36.01, and for automotive parts is 24.33 [11][44]. - The passenger vehicle segment saw a decrease of 0.37% in valuation, while the automotive parts segment increased slightly by 0.02% [11][44]. New Models and Industry News - 尚界汽车 has released a teaser for its first SUV model, which is expected to launch in the fall of 2025 [3][44]. - A total of 29 new and updated vehicle models were launched during the week of July 7 to July 11 [40][41]. Sales Performance - In June, the total retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.084 million units, marking an 18.1% increase year-on-year [7][44]. - Cumulative retail sales for the first half of the year reached 10.901 million units, up 10.8% compared to the same period last year [7][44].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, with projections indicating a year-on-year increase of 66.2% to 97.0% [1][2] Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is between 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit of 2.23 billion to 2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.1% to 89.9% [1][2] - For Q2 2025, the expected net profit is 2.19 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 56.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 188.9% [1][2] Sales and Market Performance - The company anticipates a wholesale volume of 152,000 units for H1 2025, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, but Q2 2025 shows a recovery with 107,000 units sold, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 135.8% [2] - The M8 model has gained traction in the high-end market, with 41,000 units sold in Q2 2025, contributing to the brand's upward momentum [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has submitted an application for an H-share IPO to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its global strategy and expand its international market presence [4] - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to R&D for new energy vehicles, enhancing core technology capabilities, and expanding online marketing and overseas sales channels [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 171.45 billion, 228.94 billion, and 259.35 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 10.15 billion, 13.53 billion, and 16.74 billion yuan [5][8] - The company maintains a positive outlook with a projected PE ratio decreasing from 21 in 2025 to 13 by 2027, indicating potential for growth [5][8]