Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal price adjustment has been ongoing since Q4 2021, with the market now recognizing the prolonged decline. It suggests that the bottom of the price cycle may be near, urging stakeholders to maintain confidence and focus on the industry's fundamental attributes [6][7] - The report emphasizes the challenges faced by the Russian coal industry, including rising production costs, declining investment, and logistical issues due to sanctions, which have led to a decrease in coal exports [4][5] - The global metallurgical coal market is experiencing a shift, with supply tightening due to disruptions in Australian coal supply, leading to increased prices for high-quality coking coal [5][6] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of May 23, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.78 per barrel, down $0.63 (-0.96%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.53 per barrel, down $0.96 (-1.54%) [1] - The report notes that the price of coal at Newcastle port (6000K) is $218.9 per ton, unchanged from the previous week, while the price at the European ARA port is $91 per ton, also unchanged [1][38] Production and Demand - Russia's coal production remains around 440 million tons annually, with coking coal production at approximately 110 million tons. Domestic demand for coal in Russia is projected to grow by 13.13% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 205 million tons [4] - The report indicates that the share of electricity coal demand in Russia is about 46% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several coal companies for investment, including China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and others, highlighting their performance and potential for recovery [6][7] - The report suggests that the domestic coal companies are facing increasing losses, with over 54.8% of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025, indicating a higher likelihood of production cuts [6][7] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that by 2050, global metallurgical coal demand will decrease from 1.099 billion tons in 2024 to 885 million tons, with significant shifts in demand from China to India [5] - It is projected that the price of high-quality Australian coking coal will gradually rise due to long-term structural shortages [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have stabilized, and with the peak summer demand approaching, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated. The low coal prices have led to a reduction in supply, with April 2025 coal production growth slowing to 3.8% year-on-year, and daily production decreasing by 8.7% month-on-month [1][7]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal is gradually increasing as temperatures rise, and the overall coal consumption in the chemical sector remains high. This marginal improvement in demand is expected to accelerate the reduction of port inventories, leading to a new round of price rebounds [1][7]. - The report emphasizes the investment value of stable high-dividend coal stocks, suggesting that the sector may experience a valuation uplift as coal prices enter an upward channel [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the coal supply has slightly decreased due to accidents affecting some coal mines, while demand is weakening as the consumption off-season approaches. This has led to a bearish sentiment in the market, with continued inventory accumulation [2][10]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption in power plants has increased, while the number of available days has decreased, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][10]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 yuan in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 times [3]. - The report highlights that companies like Jinko Coal and Shanxi Coal International are expected to show stable performance and production growth, making them attractive investment options [11][3]. Market Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.0%, outperforming the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report identifies that the coal stocks have cleared low positions after previous panic selling, and the stability of coal prices has been reaffirmed, enhancing the certainty of high dividend yields [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and its associated ETF indicates a growing interest in stable dividend-paying stocks, particularly in the coal sector, amidst market volatility and changing economic policies [4][5]. Group 1: Index and ETF Performance - As of May 21, 2025, the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index rose by 0.66%, with key stocks like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua showing significant gains of 4.90% and 2.86% respectively [3]. - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) has seen a price increase of 0.57%, marking its third consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.06 yuan [3]. - The ETF's trading volume reached 504.55 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.54% during the session [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Recent U.S. tariff policies have impacted market sentiment, leading investors to seek stable assets, particularly in the coal sector where inventory levels are decreasing and coal prices are stabilizing [4]. - Several state-owned coal enterprises have initiated share buybacks and asset injection plans, reflecting confidence in the coal industry's growth and stability [4]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Performance Metrics - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF recorded a net inflow of 1,050.77 million yuan, with nine out of the last ten trading days showing positive net inflows totaling 2,189.61 million yuan [5]. - The ETF has achieved a 6.54% increase in net value over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [6]. - The ETF's management fee is 0.15%, and its tracking error over the past two months is 0.032%, indicating strong performance relative to its benchmark [6]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Jizhong Energy, Daqin Railway, and Xiamen International Trade, collectively accounting for 19.66% of the index [7].

Investment Insights - The report highlights a cautious outlook on risk assets following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, emphasizing the importance of US Treasury liquidity in the upcoming months [2][9] - The coal industry narrative is shifting from "elasticity" to "duration," with companies like Shaanxi Coal outperforming others due to lower extraction costs and stable performance [11][12] - The report indicates that the valuation gap between Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua is expected to narrow as the market recognizes the long-term value of low-cost coal producers [13][14] Company Summaries Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - The company is transitioning from an "elasticity narrative" to a "duration narrative," with a significant performance gap observed in 2024 compared to China Shenhua [11][12] - Shaanxi Coal's extraction costs position it favorably within the industry cost curve, enhancing its long-term investment value [12][13] - The projected net profits for Shaanxi Coal from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 190.2 billion, 199.3 billion, and 210.0 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.3, 9.8, and 9.3 [14] Jiyuan Precision (836720.BJ) - The company focuses on high-precision zinc-aluminum alloy die-casting products, with a projected net profit of 56.75 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.63% [16][21] - Jiyuan Precision is expanding its international presence through acquisitions, including the purchase of German company Dico to develop the European market [20][21] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for lightweight components in the electric vehicle sector, with significant revenue growth expected in automotive parts [17][21]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates a significant decline in coal imports and a downward trend in reliance on thermal coal, with a projected annual decrease in thermal coal imports by 4.9% for 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Coal Production and Import Trends - In April 2025, the raw coal production decreased by 5 million tons month-on-month, with a total output of 390 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [2]. - The total coal imports in April 2025 were 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.41% compared to the same month last year [3]. - For the first four months of 2025, coal imports totaled 152.67 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Power Generation Insights - In April 2025, the industrial power generation was 711.1 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [4]. - The thermal power generation in April 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, maintaining the same decline rate as in March [4]. - Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power showed accelerated growth rates of 12.7% and 16.7% respectively in April 2025 [4]. Group 3: Steel Production and Market Dynamics - The crude steel production in April 2025 was 86.02 million tons, remaining flat year-on-year [5]. - The average daily iron water production from 247 sample steel mills was 2.448 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [5]. - The market anticipates a seasonal peak in steel demand, with potential downward pressure on iron water production due to slowing inventory depletion [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (601088) and China Coal Energy (601898) for investment [6]. - It highlights the potential of companies like Xinji Energy (601918) and Shaanxi Coal (601225) based on performance metrics [6][7]. - The report also notes the importance of monitoring the impact of coal imports and domestic policy changes on market dynamics [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential revaluation opportunity as the narrative shifts from "elasticity" to "duration" [5][9]. Core Views - The report highlights that the coal industry is transitioning from an "elasticity narrative" to a "duration narrative," with the company expected to narrow its valuation gap with China Shenhua as market recognition of low-cost coal companies' longer duration increases [8][41]. - The company is positioned well in terms of resource endowment, sharing a coalfield with China Shenhua and maintaining a low-cost advantage due to its relatively new coal mines [40][41]. - The report emphasizes that the company's valuation is expected to improve as the market acknowledges the stability of its earnings and the long-term investment value of low-cost coal producers [11][41]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company is 20.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 195,839 million yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 195,839 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenues for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 170,872 million yuan (2023), 184,145 million yuan (2024), 165,638 million yuan (2025), 171,775 million yuan (2026), and 179,158 million yuan (2027) [7]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is: 21,239 million yuan (2023), 22,360 million yuan (2024), 19,016 million yuan (2025), 19,927 million yuan (2026), and 21,001 million yuan (2027) [7]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 10.3 for 2025, 9.8 for 2026, and 9.3 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [9][42]. Investment Logic - The report discusses the shift in the coal industry narrative, emphasizing that companies with lower extraction costs will have a longer duration and thus a higher valuation as the market recognizes their stability [37][41]. - The company is expected to benefit from its low-cost structure and stable earnings, which will help it narrow the valuation gap with China Shenhua [40][41]. Key Assumptions - The company’s self-produced coal sales growth rates are projected at +4.9% for 2025, 0% for 2026, and 0% for 2027 [10][42]. - The self-produced raw coal prices are expected to decline by 12.7% in 2025, followed by increases of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027 [10][42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see improved demand as effective supply decreases, presenting a good investment opportunity since the beginning of the year [1] - In April 2025, the raw coal production decreased by 50 million tons month-on-month, with an annual growth rate of 3.8% [1][12] - The forecast for 2025 indicates a net increase in production of only 55-60 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 1.2-1.3%, continuing to slow down compared to 2024 [1][12] Summary by Sections Production - In April 2025, the raw coal production was 390 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1][12] - The average daily production in April was 12.98 million tons [1][12] Import - In April 2025, coal imports were 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.41% year-on-year [2][16] - For the first four months of 2025, total coal imports were 152.67 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [2][16] - The forecast for 2025 suggests that thermal coal imports may stabilize or decline slightly, with an expected total of around 385 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [2][16] Demand - In April 2025, the industrial power generation was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [3][19] - The industrial thermal power generation decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to March [3][19] - The growth rates for wind and solar power generation increased to 12.7% and 16.7% respectively in April [3][19] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and turnaround opportunities like China Qinfa [5][37] - Other recommended stocks include new energy companies with strong performance such as Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Electric Power Energy [5][37] - Companies with potential for future growth include Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy [5][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see improved demand and effective supply reduction, presenting a good investment opportunity since the beginning of the year [1] - In April 2025, the raw coal production decreased by 50 million tons month-on-month, with a total output of 390 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [12][13] - The report anticipates a net increase in coal production of only 55 to 60 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating a continued slowdown compared to 2024 [1][12] Production Summary - In April 2025, the raw coal production was 390 million tons, with a daily average of 12.98 million tons [12][13] - The cumulative raw coal production from January to April 2025 reached 1.58 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [12] Import Summary - In April 2025, coal imports were 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 16.41% year-on-year and a 2.34% decrease month-on-month [2][16] - From January to April 2025, total coal imports amounted to 152.67 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [16] - The report forecasts that the total annual coal imports for 2025 may be around 385 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.9% [2][16] Demand Summary - In April 2025, the industrial power generation was 711.1 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [3][19] - The industrial thermal power generation saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, remaining consistent with the previous month [3][19] - Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power showed significant growth, with wind power increasing by 12.7% and solar power by 16.7% year-on-year [3][19][32] Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, among others [5][37] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in stock selection, highlighting companies like Xinjie Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5][37]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 index components showed mixed performance with logistics, chemical pharmaceuticals, and home appliances leading in gains, while the coal sector faced declines [1] Sector Performance Insurance - China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Life Insurance reported market capitalizations of 980.99 billion, 361.31 billion, and 326.32 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 6.54 million, 10.71 million, and 5.58 million [3] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1993.60 billion, 242.98 billion, and 501.66 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 18.64 million, 10.49 million, and 5.22 million [3] Semiconductor - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of 231.43 billion, 284.52 billion, and 325.85 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 7.93 million, 15.80 million, and 6.32 million [3] Automotive - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway reported market capitalizations of 1192.71 billion, 199.78 billion, and 294.15 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 37.01 million, 1.61 million, and 2.02 million [3] Oil Industry - COSCO Shipping, Sinopec, and China National Petroleum had market capitalizations of 687.67 billion, 1498.94 billion, and 254.36 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.16 million, 2.49 million, and 14.71 million [3] Coal Industry - China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and CATL reported market capitalizations of 194.68 billion, 1198.11 billion, and 777.26 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.11 million, 3.58 million, and 50.90 million [3] Power Industry - Dongfang Electric, Yangtze Power, and China Nuclear Power had market capitalizations of 753.62 billion, 197.66 billion, and 341.13 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 10.66 million, 7.40 million, and 21.45 million [4] Food and Beverage - CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and Haitian Flavoring reported market capitalizations of 387.85 billion, 311.87 billion, and 240.72 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.95 million, 7.07 million, and 2.48 million [4] Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian, Luxshare Precision, and Heng Rui Medicine had market capitalizations of 379.50 billion, 235.47 billion, and 348.74 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 3.94 million, 17.94 million, and 15.65 million [4] Home Appliances - Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Muyuan Foods reported market capitalizations of 261.19 billion, 245.55 billion, and 216.54 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 11.37 million, 5.03 million, and 4.47 million [4] Medical Devices - Mindray Medical, Wanhua Chemical, and SF Holding had market capitalizations of 178.50 billion, 224.01 billion, and 272.74 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 9.22 million, 6.67 million, and 4.36 million [4] Telecommunications - China Construction, China Unicom, and China Telecom had market capitalizations of 235.94 billion, 171.33 billion, and 466.44 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 11.23 million, 2.30 million, and 8.29 million [4] Transportation Equipment - China CRRC and Guodian NARI had market capitalizations of 209.50 billion and 184.02 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.15 million and 2.30 million [5]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "Synchronize with the Market-A" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is returning to supply-demand logic following the resolution of tariff disputes, with expectations of improved demand as summer approaches [1][8] - The report highlights that while coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal factors and inventory adjustments, the potential for recovery in non-electric coal demand exists as the international trade environment improves [8][81] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Inventory levels are decreasing, and summer stocking demand is anticipated. As of May 16, the spot reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 629 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -2.18% [3][23] - **Metallurgical Coal**: The external trade environment is improving, and metallurgical coal continues to deplete inventories. The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1320 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [4][35] - **Coking Steel Chain**: Increased operational rates have led to a slight decline in coking coal prices. The average price for first-grade metallurgical coke is 1480 CNY/ton, down 3.27% [5][54] - **Coal Transportation**: Increased stocking demand has stabilized coastal transportation prices, with the coastal coal transportation index at 661.75 points, up 3.34% [6][64] - **Coal-related Futures**: Downstream operational rates have decreased, leading to a decline in double焦期价 [66] 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has rebounded alongside the broader market, outperforming major indices. The CITIC coal index closed at 3244.52 points, with a weekly change of +1.65% [7][71] 3. Industry News Summary - Recent government initiatives emphasize strengthening domestic circulation and enhancing the coal industry's clean and efficient utilization [79][80] - The construction of a new cross-border railway between China and Mongolia is expected to significantly boost coal exports from Mongolia, reshaping trade dynamics [80] 4. Important Announcements from Listed Companies - Major companies in the coal sector are actively managing operational challenges and pursuing strategic initiatives, including asset restructuring and safety measures following incidents [81][83] 5. Next Week's Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while coal prices may face downward pressure, the upcoming summer stocking demand and improved tariff conditions could support price stability. Investors are advised to focus on undervalued companies with solid performance support [8][81]