Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2024 and a pragmatic approach in 2025, with total revenue projected to reach 115.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, and a net profit of 34.12 billion yuan, up 8.80% year-on-year [7] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue and net profit for 2024 are forecasted at 115.46 billion yuan and 34.12 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 14.31% and 8.80% [7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to be 50.99 billion yuan, a 9.17% increase year-on-year, and net profit is projected at 16.44 billion yuan, up 7.27% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 74.75% in 2024, with a slight decline in net profit margin to 29.55% [7][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.68 based on the current market price [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from the Special A+ and Special A product categories is expected to grow by 15.2% and 16.6% respectively, with the V6 product line anticipated to lead in growth [7] - Revenue from domestic and international markets is projected to increase by 13.3% and 27.4% respectively, with significant growth in regions such as Anhui and Shandong [7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company’s net profit margin is expected to decrease by 1.50 percentage points to 29.55% in 2024, attributed to increased discounts and a higher proportion of mid-tier products [7] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to decline to 74.75% in 2024, with fluctuations in sales expense ratios also noted [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 11.55 billion and 3.41 billion RMB in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 8.8% respectively. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue and net profit of 5.10 billion and 1.64 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 7.3% [1][4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market share within the province while expanding into surrounding regions, with a clear growth strategy in place [2][4] - The product structure is steadily improving, with core product upgrades and new product launches contributing to growth. The company expects to continue benefiting from external demand recovery [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from its core product categories was 3.35 billion and 7.49 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 16.6% and 15.2%. The first quarter of 2025 saw similar growth trends [2] - The overall gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points to 74.7% in 2024, attributed to the faster growth of lower-priced products. The net profit margin also saw a decline of 1.5 percentage points to 29.6% [3] Cash Flow and Financial Metrics - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a cash flow from operations of 1.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The sales collection reached 4.68 billion RMB, up 25.4% year-on-year [3] - The report projects a revenue forecast of 12.64 billion and 14.30 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.67 billion and 4.11 billion RMB [6][18] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 58.60 RMB, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's growth potential in both domestic and external markets [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, and its operational goals are positive and pragmatic. The 2024 revenue reached 11.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.41 billion, up 8.8% year-on-year. The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [6][5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 11,546 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,412 million, with a growth rate of 8.8% [5] - For 2025, the estimated total revenue is 12,265 million, with a growth rate of 6.2%, and the net profit is projected at 3,600 million, reflecting a growth rate of 5.5% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.89 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 16 [5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is 74.7%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 22.1% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's white liquor revenue reached 114.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The revenue from the special A+ category was 74.9 billion, up 15.2%, accounting for 65.3% of total revenue [6] - For Q1 2025, the white liquor revenue was 50.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.29%. The special A+ category revenue was 31.7 billion, up 6.6% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a strong regional leader with solid fundamentals and sustainable growth capabilities. It has clear brand positioning with its three major brands: Guo Yuan, Jin Si Yuan, and Gao Gou [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the high-end market and exploring opportunities outside its home province, indicating long-term growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.55 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.41 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.6 billion yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, down 34.8% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 5.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.64 billion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 5%-12% for 2025, with expectations for V3 and expansion in the provincial market to drive growth [5]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total Revenue: 11,546 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth: 14.3% - Net Profit: 3,412 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth: 8.8% - Earnings Per Share (EPS): 2.74 yuan - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 17 times [1][9]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Total Revenue: 12,578 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth: 8.9% - Net Profit: 3,647 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth: 6.9% - EPS: 2.93 yuan - P/E: 16 times [1][9]. - **2026 and 2027 Projections**: - 2026 Total Revenue: 13,641 million yuan, Growth: 8.5% - 2027 Total Revenue: 14,695 million yuan, Growth: 7.7% - 2026 Net Profit: 3,930 million yuan, Growth: 7.8% - 2027 Net Profit: 4,235 million yuan, Growth: 7.8% [1][9]. Market Performance - The company has shown a consistent increase in market share within the province, with a notable revenue increase of 27% in provincial markets and a 19% increase in external markets in 2024 [5]. - The company’s cash flow and contract liabilities are reported to be in a relatively healthy state, with a contract liability of 540 million yuan at the end of Q1 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a focus on maintaining market share and expanding in both domestic and international markets [1][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.544 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.412 billion, up 8.8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.38 billion, reflecting a 7.8% increase year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the operating revenue was 1.604 billion, down 7.5% year-on-year, and the net profit was 326 million, down 34.8% year-on-year [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.099 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit of 1.644 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year [2] - The combined revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [2] Product and Market Analysis - The company saw a stable performance in its core products, with significant growth in premium product categories [2] - The revenue from different product tiers in 2024 was as follows: Special A+/A/A/B/C+D categories achieved revenues of 7.491 billion, 3.347 billion, 419 million, 142 million, and 74 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +15.2%, +16.6%, +2.0%, -11.1%, and -14.6% [2] - In Q1 2025, the revenue from the same categories was 3.169 billion, 1.650 billion, 184 million, 57 million, and 19 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +6.6%, +17.4%, +3.3%, -3.8%, and -38.3% [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue from domestic and international markets was 10.551 billion and 926 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 27.4% [3] - In Q1 2025, domestic and international revenues were 4.642 billion and 437 million, with year-on-year growth of 8.5% and 19.0% [3] - The company has expanded its dealer network, with a net increase of 123 and 125 dealers in domestic and international markets respectively [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin was 73.6%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company maintained stable profitability with a net profit margin of 29.6% for 2024 and 32.2% for Q1 2025 [4] Strategic Outlook - The company has set pragmatic operational goals for 2025, aiming for growth rates above industry averages, particularly in international markets [5] - The focus remains on solidifying the core product base while enhancing market penetration in both domestic and international regions [5] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 12.525 billion and 13.789 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of 8.5% and 10.1% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Jinshiyuan Wine Industry Co., Ltd. achieved record highs in revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating strong growth momentum in the company [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.32% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.412 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 2.867 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.37% increase year-on-year [1] Product Segmentation - Jinshiyuan has three major brands: "Guo Yuan," "Jin Shiyuan," and "Gao Gou" - Revenue by product category for 2024: - Special A+ (above 300 yuan): 7.491 billion yuan, +15.17% - Special A (100-300 yuan): 3.347 billion yuan, +16.61% - A (50-100 yuan): 419 million yuan, +1.95% - B (20-50 yuan): 142 million yuan, -11.09% - C and D (below 20 yuan): 74 million yuan, -14.57% [2] Sales Channels - In 2024, wholesale and agency sales generated 11.205 billion yuan, while direct sales (including group purchases) contributed 273 million yuan - The number of distributors increased to 1,228, with a net addition of 294 [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth was observed in both domestic and international markets - In Jiangsu province, revenue from various districts showed growth, with notable increases in Huai'an (12.31%) and Suzhong (21.21%) - The company achieved 926 million yuan in revenue from outside Jiangsu, a 27.37% increase year-on-year [3] Market Strategy - The growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the domestic market and high-end products like Guo Yuan - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in provinces such as Shandong, Anhui, Henan, and Zhejiang, with expectations for continued growth in these regions [4] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for a revenue growth of 5% to 12% and a net profit increase slightly lower than revenue growth - The company has set strategic goals to ensure economic indicators exceed industry averages and to enhance production capacity and market operations [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and a net profit of 3.41 billion RMB, up 8.8% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.10 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.64 billion RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5% to 12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, focusing on maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.54 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 29.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin decreased by 3.6 percentage points [4]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 32.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 0.6 percentage points [4]. Product Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from Special A+ and Special A categories was 7.49 billion RMB and 3.35 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 17%. Sales volume increased by 27% and 26%, while ton prices decreased by 10% and 8% [3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue from Special A+ and Special A categories was 3.17 billion RMB and 1.65 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 7% and 17% [3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the company generated 10.55 billion RMB from domestic sales and 930 million RMB from external sales, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 27%, respectively [3]. - For Q1 2025, domestic and external sales were 4.64 billion RMB and 440 million RMB, with year-on-year growth of 8% and 19% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 12% and 17% reduction in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected revenue growth of 8.3% in 2025 and 8.5% in 2026 [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.90 RMB, 3.17 RMB, and 3.57 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.0, 14.6, and 13.0 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and a net profit of 3.41 billion RMB, up 8.8% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.10 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.64 billion RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5% to 12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, focusing on maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 74.9 billion RMB from Special A+ products and 33.5 billion RMB from Special A products, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 17% respectively. Sales volume increased by 27% and 26%, while ton prices decreased by 10% and 8%, leading to a decline in gross margins [3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue from Special A+ and Special A products was 31.7 billion RMB and 16.5 billion RMB, showing year-on-year growth of 7% and 17% respectively [3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the company generated 105.5 billion RMB in revenue from domestic markets and 9.3 billion RMB from outside, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 27% respectively. Key regions like Nanjing and Huai'an showed steady growth [3]. - For Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 46.4 billion RMB, up 8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside was 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 19% increase [3]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 29.6%, with gross margin down by 3.6 percentage points [4]. - The company reported a contract liability balance of 540 million RMB at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 430 million RMB year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 12% and 17% reduction in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected revenue growth of 8.3% in 2025 and 8.5% in 2026 [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.90 RMB, 3.17 RMB, and 3.57 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.0, 14.6, and 13.0 [5].

Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]

作 者丨肖夏 编 辑丨骆一帆 截至4月2 9日晚，白酒股2 0 2 4年年报、2 0 2 5年一季报全部披露。 2 1世纪经济报道记者梳理注意到，几乎所有白酒上市公司去年业绩增长都出现放缓，其中有 六家酒企去年营收同比倒退，覆盖不同体量的酒企，能实现两位数增长的白酒已经屈指可数。 同时披露的2 0 2 5年一季报更为惨淡， 各家白酒股业绩增速进一步下滑，其中近一半业绩出现 倒退，多家出现2 0%、3 0%的大幅下滑。 一位资深白酒投资者评价，"当前白酒迎来了极寒天气。" 行业深度调整反馈到报表端之际，白酒企业的竞争格局也发生了重要变化。 2 1 世 纪 经 济 报 道 记 者 梳 理 注 意 到 ， 头 部 白 酒 中 ， 山西 汾酒正式跃升至第三 ， 三 大 香 型龙头实现聚首；白酒股前十中，对比五年前有两家是新面孔， 一些名酒被挤到二三 梯队 ；中小白酒业绩普遍低迷， 新增两家酒企披星戴帽，离退市再近一步 。 综合接受2 1世纪经济报道记者采访的券商分析师、行业专家观点来看，观察人士普遍认为当 前白酒处于探底阶段，今年二季度淡季预计继续低迷，但整个探底阶段会持续多久，难以判 断。 汾酒正式跻身前三，前十位 ...