证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 47.40 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）12.47 | / 12.47 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）591 | / 591 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 58.17 / 35.59 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.2% | | 市盈率 | 17.32 | | 第一大股东 | 今世缘集团有限公司 | 研究所 今世缘(603369) 业绩符合预期，省内增长势能强劲 l 投资要点 公司 2024 年度实现营业总收入/营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净 利 润 115.46/115.44/34.12/33.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 14.31%/14.32%/8.8%/7.8%。2024 年度，公司毛利率/归母净利率为 74.75%/29.55%，分别同比-3.6/-1.5pct；税金/销售/管理/研发/财 务费用率分别为 14.6%/18.54%/4.02%/0.42%/-1.15%，分别同比- 0.23/-2.23/-0.22/0/0.66pct。2024 年年度实现销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 11.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.412 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% growth [3] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 74.75%, with a net profit margin of 29.55%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [3] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [10] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 47.40 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 59.1 billion yuan [2] - The company has a total share capital of 1.247 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.2% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.32 [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 1.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.56% year-on-year, with a net profit of 326 million yuan, down 34.84% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 509.9 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.17% [6] - The company’s revenue from direct sales and wholesale in 2024 was 2.73 billion yuan and 11.205 billion yuan, respectively, showing growth of 20.78% and 14.19% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ 749.1 million yuan, Special A 334.7 million yuan, A class 41.9 million yuan, B class 14.2 million yuan, and CD class 7.4 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.17%, 16.61%, 1.95%, -11.09%, and -14.57% respectively [5] - Revenue from various regions in 2024 included: Huai'an 2.235 billion yuan, Nanjing 2.631 billion yuan, and other regions showing strong growth [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts operating revenues of 12.704 billion yuan, 13.994 billion yuan, and 16.118 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.696 billion yuan, 4.109 billion yuan, and 4.863 billion yuan [12][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.96 yuan, 3.30 yuan, and 3.90 yuan, respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the liquor industry, specifically for high-end liquor stocks [6]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a deceleration in revenue growth, but high-end products show resilience, with significant differentiation across segments [1][4]. - In 2024, the high-end liquor segment achieved a revenue growth of 12% and a net profit growth of 11%, indicating strong operational resilience [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery phase in the second half of 2025, driven by policy support and gradual external demand recovery [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 8.1% in 2024, despite a slowdown in growth rates [10]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue increase of 1.8% and a net profit increase of 2.4%, with major companies meeting their initial targets [11]. High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor revenue grew by 8% in Q1 2025, with notable contributions from leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [2][31]. - Guizhou Moutai's product matrix has improved, leading to a rise in both volume and price, while Wuliangye has effectively managed inventory and pricing strategies [2]. Mid-Range and Low-End Liquor Performance - The mid-range and low-end segments are experiencing significant differentiation, with regional leaders like Gujing Gongjiu and Jianshe Yuanyuan outperforming national brands [3][31]. - In Q1 2025, mid-range liquor revenue declined by 12%, while low-end liquor saw a similar trend, indicating ongoing pressure in these segments [37]. Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin for the liquor sector was 81.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year, while net profit margins also showed improvement [22][43]. - The report highlights that high-end liquor companies maintain strong profitability, with Guizhou Moutai achieving a net profit margin of 52.2% in Q1 2025 [44]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the liquor industry is likely to enter a phase of healthy recovery in the latter half of 2025, supported by improved consumer demand and favorable policies [4][12]. - The current valuation of the liquor sector is at a historical low, indicating potential for upward adjustment as market conditions improve [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the demand for liquor during the May Day holiday met expectations, with the overall performance under pressure. However, the liquor industry is showing signs of bottoming out and improving, with major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performing steadily. Local liquor leaders such as Gujinggongjiu and Jianshiyuan are also showing strong momentum. The report highlights a trend of increasing competition, leading to higher expenditure by companies and a slower pace of price upgrades. The overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks or increasing dividends [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Henan Shenglin's annual sales of Wuliangye series products exceeded 1 billion yuan - The Luzhou liquor industrial park held an economic analysis meeting - Ten liquor companies in Gansu received geographical indication protection [4][5]. Company News - Moutai plans to optimize its distributor assessment - Wuliangye's "He Mei Global Tour" has commenced - Fenjiu's revenue for 2024 is projected at 36.011 billion yuan [5][15]. Key Company Feedback - The report includes performance forecasts for several companies, with a focus on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For instance, Moutai's EPS is projected to be 75.23 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.56 [7][28]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector showed a decline of 1.5% over the past month, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 2.4% [1][2]. Liquor Sector Recommendations - The report recommends companies with valuation advantages such as Shuijingfang, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiugui Liquor. For the entire year, it recommends Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Gujinggongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

丨2025年5月6日 星期二丨 每经记者 熊嘉楠 每经编辑 彭水萍 点评：今世缘上述调整体现了公司优化资源配置、提升管理效率的战略意图。结合其业绩的稳健表现， 可以看出此次调整有助于进一步巩固其在白酒行业的市场地位。对白酒板块而言，此举可能引发其他企 业对组织优化的关注，提升行业整体管理效率。 第三，酒业上市公司具备良好的行业政策导向。"国家队"资金长期配置方向代表着政策层对所在行业的 战略性支持，因此酒业上市公司在参与国家重大项目建设方面具有一定的先发优势，能够更好地享受政 策红利、抓住发展机遇。 第四，酒业上市公司具有良好的公司治理水平。"国家队"作为重要股东，会积极参与上市公司的治理， 对公司的经营管理进行监督，促使上市公司完善治理结构，规范公司的决策程序和信息披露制度，提高 公司治理水平和透明度。因此，有"国家队"深度入股的上市公司在公司治理水平上一定处于"高段位"。 点评："国家队"重仓酒业龙头股彰显对行业长期投资价值的认可。此举料将增强资本市场对酒业股的信 心，吸引更多资金流入。对酒业板块而言，这将提升板块整体估值水平，尤其是龙头企业。对股市整体 而言，表明"国家队"对消费类蓝筹股的青睐，有望稳定 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with total revenue and net profit for 2024 reaching 115.46 billion and 34.12 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.31% and 8.80% [10] - The company is currently in a phase of significant growth, with strong performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the high-end segment [10] - The company aims for a total revenue growth of 5%-12% and a net profit increase slightly lower than revenue growth for 2025, indicating confidence in sustained momentum [10] Revenue Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rates for domestic and international markets were 13.32% and 27.37% respectively, with the proportion of international revenue increasing by 1.73 percentage points [2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates were 8.45% for domestic and 19.04% for international markets, with the international revenue share rising by 1.38 percentage points [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 74.74% and 29.55%, showing a slight decline of 3.60 and 1.50 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow increased by 2.37% in 2024 and by 42.5% in Q1 2025, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 9.1%, 9.6%, and 9.7% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 7.9%, 9.4%, and 9.5% [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.95, 3.23, and 3.54 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.05, 14.67, and 13.40 [4]

证券代码：603369 证券简称：今世缘 公告编号：2025-017 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司 第五届董事会第十三次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 江苏今世缘酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第十三次会议于 2025年5月3日以通讯表决方式召开，会议通知已于2025年4月30日以电子邮件、专人送 达或电话通知等方式发出。本次会议应参与表决董事11人，实际参与表决董事11人，会 议的召开程序符合《公司法》及公司《章程》的要求。本次会议由董事长顾祥悦先生主 持，会议审议并作出如下决议： 一、审议通过了《关于公司部分组织架构优化调整的议案》 为更好地保障公司发展战略的顺利实施，进一步强化内部管理，整合资源配置，提 高公司管理水平和运营效率，根据实际生产经营需要，对公司部分组织架构优化与调整。 成立客户关系管理部，负责公司层面会员运营、大客户开发及管理，大服务体系建设工 作；撤销战略研究部，公司层面的战略研究工作划入企管部，市场分析、竞争策略研究 工作划入销售部。 表决结果：11 票赞成， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 11.55 billion and a net profit of 3.41 billion for 2024, showing year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 8.8% respectively, despite a decline in Q4 2024 due to proactive inventory control [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a revenue and net profit decline of 7.6% and 34.8% year-on-year due to increased inventory control [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.1 billion and a net profit of 1.64 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% and 7.3% respectively [1] - The total cash return for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 7.66 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] Group 2: Sales and Product Performance - The company saw a 19.5% increase in sales volume for 2024, while the average price per ton decreased by 4.4%, indicating a shift towards more cost-effective products [2] - Revenue from different product categories in 2024 showed growth, with the top-tier products (特A+类) achieving a revenue of 7.49 billion, up 15.2% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the top-tier products experienced a slowdown in growth, with year-on-year increases of 6.6% for 特A+类 and 17.4% for 特A类 [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The company experienced significant growth in the Jiangsu province, with revenue increases of 21.2% in the Suzhong market for 2024 [3] - The number of distributors increased by 114 in the province and 53 outside the province in 2024, indicating a strengthening distribution network [3] - By the end of Q1 2025, the company had 636 distributors in the province and 613 outside, with a focus on key markets and core customers [3] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 74.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower prices and higher costs [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 73.6%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage and continues to be recommended for investment despite some performance pressures due to proactive inventory management [5] - The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.97, 3.17, and 3.48 respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to a 16x PE for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company continues to show a growth trend, with strong willingness to repay and high cooperation intent from distribution channels, leading to an increase in market share [7] - The revenue for Q1 2025 is reported at 5.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27% [8] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 0.60 percentage points to 73.6% in Q1 2025, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of A-class products [9] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 11.546 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.31%, and a net profit of 3.412 billion yuan, up 8.80% [8] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 is 5.099 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, both figures exceeding market expectations [8] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.559 billion yuan, 13.838 billion yuan, and 15.289 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%, 10.2%, and 10.5% [9] Product and Market Insights - The company maintains strong growth in the mass price segment, with specific product lines showing significant year-on-year revenue increases [9] - The company’s A+/A-class product revenue grew by 6.6%/17.4%/3.3% in Q1 2025, indicating a robust performance in the premium segment [8] - The company’s market share in the Jiangsu province continues to expand, with revenue growth rates of 15.2% in Suzhong and 12.6% in Yancheng [9]