FFFF 2025 年 12 月 14 日 本期投资提示: 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1) 上证指数下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，沪深 300 下跌 ● 0.08%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 0.47%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39 个百分点。2) 分子板块看，环比 上周，贵金属上涨 1.50%，铝下跌 4.72%，能源金属上涨 0.48%，小金属上涨 1.76%，铜下跌 0.83%, 铅锌下跌 1.45%，金属新材料上涨 2.71%。 相关研究 若研究院 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 降息如期落地,金属价格强势 波段人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].

Key Points - The Chinese battery recycling industry has experienced fluctuations in financing events and amounts from 2018 to 2024, with 2022 recording the highest number of financing events at 7 and 2020 having the highest financing amount at 2.729 billion yuan [1] - As of November 3, 2025, there have been 5 financing events totaling 525 million yuan [1] - The majority of financing events from 2018 to 2025 are concentrated in strategic, angel, and A rounds, with strategic rounds accounting for 20%, and both angel and A rounds at 17% each, indicating an early-stage investment landscape [2][5] - The geographical distribution of financing events shows that Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hubei are the primary regions, with Guangdong having the highest number of events at 7, representing 23% of the total [6] - Investment entities dominate the financing landscape, making up 77% of the total investment events from 2018 to 2025 [10] - Successful IPOs in the battery recycling sector include companies like Zhongwei Co., Greenme, Huayou Cobalt, Guanghua Technology, Fangyuan Co., Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium [12] - Key industrial parks for battery recycling are located in Hubei, Hunan, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, with significant projects such as the comprehensive recycling park in Hubei and the high-end material industrial park in Hunan [13][15] - Mergers and acquisitions in the battery recycling industry are primarily vertical and horizontal, with notable transactions including Huayou Cobalt's acquisition of a majority stake in a Zimbabwean lithium mining company for 378 million USD [17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% on December 12, with 21 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the non-ferrous metals and electronics sectors, which increased by 1.50% and 1.46% respectively [1] - The trading day saw a net outflow of 4.872 billion yuan from the main funds across the two markets, with 14 sectors receiving net inflows [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector had a notable increase of 1.50%, with a net inflow of 1.464 billion yuan, and 106 out of 138 stocks in this sector rose, including 3 stocks that hit the daily limit [2] - The power equipment sector led the net inflow with 2.805 billion yuan, followed by the machinery equipment sector with a net inflow of 1.771 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw significant individual stock performances, with the top net inflow stock being Antai Technology, which received 859 million yuan, followed by Zhongzhou Special Materials and Xingye Silver Tin with inflows of 542 million yuan and 209 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, the electronic sector experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 3.703 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 2.501 billion yuan [1] Top Gainers in Non-Ferrous Metals - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector included: - Antai Technology: +9.98% with a turnover rate of 15.69% and a main fund flow of 858.70 million yuan - Zhongzhou Special Materials: +20.01% with a turnover rate of 28.24% and a main fund flow of 541.53 million yuan - Xingye Silver Tin: +3.25% with a turnover rate of 3.30% and a main fund flow of 209.37 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector also had notable outflows, with: - Tianqi Lithium: -2.75% with a main fund outflow of 461 million yuan - Huayou Cobalt: +0.02% with a main fund outflow of 418.59 million yuan - Ganfeng Lithium: -2.68% with a main fund outflow of 412.56 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant inflow of capital, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) seeing a net inflow of over 150,000 yuan and a cumulative net subscription exceeding 200 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 12, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) opened strong, rising by 0.26% and briefly exceeding 1% during the morning session [1]. - The performance of the underlying index components is mixed, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold rising over 2%, while companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium fell over 3% [2][3]. - The ETF has shown a consistent trend of capital inflow, with a net subscription of 100,000 units during the session, reflecting ongoing investor confidence [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly silver and copper, has seen significant price increases, with copper prices up 35% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [5]. - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [5]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is expected to continue supporting the prices of precious metals [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to be driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the weakening of the US dollar and ongoing supply constraints [6][7]. - The anticipated increase in demand for industrial metals, driven by new growth areas, is expected to enhance price elasticity [6]. - The copper market is projected to face supply constraints, with a slight increase in global copper production expected but limited by high disturbance rates [8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, with a high concentration of strategic metals such as copper and gold, and a significant portion of its index comprising these metals [10][12]. - The ETF's index has a copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal supercycle [12]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a volatile pullback on December 11, but the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant inflow of funds, indicating strong investor interest in the nonferrous metals sector amid favorable overseas liquidity conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:26 AM, the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose over 1.11%, with an intraday peak approaching 2%, and recorded a net subscription of 23 million shares, resulting in a net inflow of over 35 million yuan [1]. - The latest fund size of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) exceeded 3.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Most component stocks of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced gains, with Zijin Mining rising by 2.83% and Zhongjin Gold by 2.34%, while Northern Rare Earth and China Aluminum saw slight declines [3]. - The top ten component stocks of the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, with varying performance metrics [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations [4]. - The Fed plans to expand its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, which is expected to support liquidity in the market [4]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - Long-term projections suggest that the copper price may strengthen due to the ongoing U.S. rate-cutting cycle, supply-side constraints, and new demand drivers from the energy sector [8]. - Supply-side issues, including frequent mining accidents and production interruptions in major copper mines, are expected to tighten the copper market, leading to a projected supply shortfall of 150,000 tons by 2026 [9]. Group 5: Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow due to significant investments in renewable energy and the development of new power systems, with a focus on enhancing grid and storage capabilities [10]. - The push for technological advancements, particularly in AI, is expected to drive substantial increases in electricity demand, further boosting copper consumption [10]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from the ongoing super cycle in nonferrous metals, with a high concentration of strategic metals such as copper and gold [11][13]. - The ETF's index has a leading copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the nonferrous sector [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant price increases and supply chain adjustments due to rising raw material costs and strong demand, particularly in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [3][4][5]. Industry Trends - Dejia Energy announced a 15% price increase for its battery products starting December 16 due to rising production costs from upstream raw materials [3]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) and other leading companies are securing long-term agreements to lock in upstream capacity and supply chains, emphasizing the importance of capacity acquisition for future growth [3][4]. - The lithium battery supply chain is currently characterized by a "full production and sales" state, with companies like Penghui Energy and Tianji Co. reporting strong demand and rising prices for their products [4]. Market Demand - Global power battery installation reached 811.7 GWh in the first three quarters of this year, a 34.7% increase from the previous year, while the energy storage market saw a 90.7% year-on-year growth [5]. - The rapid growth in renewable energy installations and the expansion of AI data centers are driving increased demand for energy storage solutions [5]. Long-term Contracts - The industry is witnessing a surge in long-term contracts, with significant agreements such as a 10-year strategic partnership between Haibosi and CATL for a minimum of 200 GWh of procurement [6]. - Other notable contracts include a collaboration between Hicharge Energy and CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Research Institute for at least 120 GWh of energy storage products [6]. Price Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has surged to 92,750 RMB per ton, a 23% increase from the previous month, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has exceeded 180,000 RMB per ton [4]. - The tight supply and high demand have led to longer delivery times, with some companies reporting that delivery schedules extend into the first half of next year [4]. Technological Advancements - The industry is undergoing a "quality upgrade" driven by technological advancements, with companies like CATL launching fifth-generation lithium iron phosphate batteries that improve energy density and cycle life [9][10]. - High-density lithium iron phosphate products are becoming a focus, with expectations that their market share will increase significantly by 2026 [9]. Capacity Expansion - Companies are accelerating capacity expansion to meet growing demand, with Fulin Precision Engineering planning to invest 4 billion RMB to build a new production line for lithium iron phosphate [8]. - Dragon Power Technology is also raising funds to expand production capacity in response to customer needs [8]. Globalization Efforts - Leading companies are pursuing global expansion strategies, with firms like Hunan YN planning production capacity in Spain and Dragon Power Technology nearing full production at its Indonesian facility [10]. - The industry is shifting from scale competition to value competition, aiming for high-quality development as new products are launched and recycling systems are improved [10].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - By 2025, global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2250 GWh, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector projected to grow by 48.3%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the production of battery cells and key materials, making supply chain stability and efficiency crucial for capitalizing on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the authoritative 2025 lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The main forum will cover lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in solid-state battery electrolytes, and high-performance electrolyte research [9]. - Notable participants include Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Liyang Zhongke Solid Energy New Technology Co., and various leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers [9][10]. Group 4: Participation and Sponsorship - The participation fee is set at 2800 yuan per person, with limited free attendance available for the first 200 registrants [16]. - Sponsorship opportunities are available for companies interested in participating in the event [16].