Group 1 - Precious metal prices have risen collectively, boosting the performance of non-ferrous metal stocks in the A-share market [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) was included in the "Betting on China" top ten core assets list for 2026, with a 4.3% increase to 23.78 yuan, reaching a historical high [1] - The stock has cumulatively increased by 210% in 2025 and over 18% in the first eight trading days of this year [1] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum holds approximately 23% of global cobalt reserves and possesses world-class copper-cobalt mining clusters [1] - The KFM Phase II production will add 100,000 tons of copper capacity, supported by the Congo (Kinshasa) cobalt export quota [1] - The company benefits from resource endowment advantages and digital reforms to reduce costs, maintaining relatively low copper production costs [1] Group 3 - The "mining + trading" model smooths out cyclical fluctuations, providing industry-leading risk resistance [1] - Copper and cobalt are benefiting from the expansion of demand in the new energy sector [1] - The acquisition of Brazilian gold mines and the layout of Ecuadorian gold mines create a "copper-gold dual pole" strategy [1] - H-share equity incentives are tied to the core team, indicating strong long-term growth certainty [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Basic Materials** sector in China, with a preference order for 2026 being **copper/gold > aluminum > lithium > coal > steel** [2][4] - The **MSCI China Materials** index is expected to outperform the **MSCI China** index by **3%** in the first week of January 2026, driven by supply disruptions and mergers and acquisitions [2][4] Company-Specific Insights - **Zijin Mining** is highlighted as the top pick for 2026, with a positive profit alert projecting a **2025 net profit** of **RMB 51-52 billion**, representing a **59-62% YoY increase** [4][9] - **Jiangxi Copper (JXC)** has been upgraded to Neutral (N) due to a positive outlook on copper, despite a recent **40%+ share price surge** that has factored in the acquisition of SolGold [2][5] - **Baosteel** and **Angang Steel** have been downgraded to Neutral (N) and Underweight (UW) respectively, due to low steel margins and weaker-than-expected anti-involution efforts [2][5] Market Dynamics - Supply disruptions are expected to continue, with **South32** placing its **Mozal Aluminum smelter** on care and maintenance in March 2026, and a strike at **Capstone Copper's Mantoverde** mine expected to reduce copper supply by **77kt** [4][9] - The **Chinese base metal demand growth** is forecasted to slow to **2.5%** for copper and **1.5%** for aluminum YoY [4][9] Earnings Forecasts - **4Q25 earnings** for steel companies are projected to be the weakest, with **Angang** and **Baosteel** expected to see earnings declines of **86%** and **33%** respectively [4][11] - **Zijin** and **CMOC** are expected to report solid growth, with **CMOC** anticipated to announce a positive profit alert with a **53% YoY increase** [4][11] Stock Recommendations - **Bullish on copper** and **bearish on steel**; **Zijin** remains the top pick for its copper/gold exposure [5][11] - **Hongqiao** and **Chalco** are recommended as buyers on dips due to the positive correlation between aluminum and copper prices [5][11] Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The **Ministry of Commerce** reinstated steel export licensing from January 1, 2026, which may lead to increased near-term exports and keep global prices under pressure [9] - Regulatory uncertainties in lithium mining rights are highlighted, particularly with the cancellation of mining rights affecting **Tianqi** and **Ganfeng** [9] Commodity Price Forecasts - **Copper prices** are forecasted to reach **$12,000/ton** in 1Q26, while **aluminum prices** are expected to stabilize around **$3,000/ton** [12][14] - **Lithium prices** are projected to increase significantly, with battery-grade lithium expected to reach **$17,500/ton** by 2026 [14] Conclusion - The Basic Materials sector in China is poised for a challenging yet opportunistic year in 2026, with significant variations in performance across different commodities and companies. The focus on supply dynamics, regulatory impacts, and strategic acquisitions will be crucial for investors navigating this landscape.

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium is a global leader in the lithium industry, with a comprehensive resource layout covering spodumene, salt lakes, and clay, and its lithium carbonate production capacity is among the top in the industry [1] - Tianqi Lithium controls the world's largest spodumene mine, Greenbushes, with a self-sufficiency rate of 100%, and its full industry chain layout enhances profitability amid rising lithium carbonate prices [2] - Salt Lake Industry holds the largest lithium resource in China at the Qarhan Salt Lake, with a low extraction cost of 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per ton, and plans to reach a production capacity of 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025 [3] Group 2 - Zangge Mining has a significant advantage in the Tibetan salt lake resource layout, with a planned capacity of 50,000 tons per year and a self-sufficiency rate exceeding 80% [4] - Shengxin Lithium Energy owns Asia's largest hard rock lithium mine and has a long-term supply agreement with CATL, ensuring stable sales amid rising lithium prices [5] - Rongjie Co. focuses on lithium resource development and processing, optimizing its mining technology to enhance resource utilization and reduce costs [6] Group 3 - Tibet Mining has exclusive mining rights to the Zabuye Salt Lake, one of Asia's largest lithium salt lakes, which provides a cost advantage as lithium carbonate prices rise [7][8] - Yahua Group ranks second in lithium extraction from lepidolite in A-shares, with an annual capacity of 45,000 tons, and has established long-term partnerships with several battery manufacturers [9] - Zhongmin Resources has a strong presence in both spodumene and salt lake lithium extraction, actively expanding overseas projects to enhance market competitiveness [10] Group 4 - Jiangte Motor, located in Yichun, known as "Asia's Lithium Capital," has a lepidolite extraction capacity of 30,000 tons per year and holds proprietary low-cost extraction technology [11] - Xizang City Investment has lithium carbonate reserves of 3.9 million tons from two salt lakes, utilizing a low-cost extraction method that positions it well for profit during price increases [12] - Yongxing Materials focuses on lithium salt production and has a diversified supply chain that allows it to respond quickly to market changes [13] Group 5 - Huayou Cobalt is a global leader in cobalt products and has developed an integrated supply chain for nickel, cobalt, and lithium resources, ensuring stable supply for battery materials [14] - Hanrui Cobalt has a synergistic business model for cobalt and lithium, ensuring raw material self-sufficiency and benefiting from the growth of the lithium battery industry [15] - Tengen Cobalt focuses on the research, production, and sales of cobalt and lithium products, maintaining stable sales through partnerships with leading battery manufacturers [16] Group 6 - Luoyang Molybdenum is the second-largest cobalt producer globally and is actively expanding its lithium resource layout, benefiting from the growth in lithium battery demand [17] - Greeenmei is a leader in battery recycling, achieving over 95% recovery rates and integrating lithium resource recovery into its business model [18] - Northern Rare Earth is the largest supplier of light rare earths and is diversifying into lithium and other energy metals, leveraging its resource advantages [19] Group 7 - Jinli Permanent Magnet has advanced technology that reduces the use of heavy rare earths and is expanding into lithium-related energy metal businesses [20] - Wanhua Chemical is actively involved in the lithium battery materials sector, providing chemical support for lithium carbonate production and benefiting from the growing demand in the lithium battery industry [21] - China Aluminum is leveraging its mining experience to develop lithium resources, ensuring quality and reducing operational costs amid rising lithium prices [22] Group 8 - Jiangxi Copper is expanding into lithium and cobalt, utilizing its mining expertise to enhance its energy metal business [23] - Huayu Mining is focusing on lithium resource development in Tibet, leveraging its regional advantages to enhance its lithium salt processing projects [24] - Shengda Resources is actively acquiring lithium resources and enhancing its energy metal business through strategic partnerships [25] Group 9 - Boqian New Materials, while primarily focused on nano-level metal powder materials, is involved in the lithium battery sector and is expected to see significant profit growth by 2026 [26] - Yongshan Lithium focuses on lithium salt product development and has optimized its production processes to enhance product quality and efficiency [27] - Dazhong Mining is transitioning into the lithium sector, utilizing its mining expertise to explore and develop lithium resources [28] Group 10 - Jinyuan Co. is transforming into the lithium battery sector, focusing on lithium resource development and processing through strategic acquisitions [29] - Weiling Co. is extending its business into the lithium battery supply chain, providing equipment and technical support for lithium mining and processing [30] - Tianhua Super Clean is deeply engaged in lithium battery materials, with a strong production capacity and established relationships with leading battery manufacturers [31]

| | | | 交易日期 证券简称 | | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( *) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 026-01-13 | 洛阳相业 | 603993 | 22.8 2736 120 | 公開建築格格室 | 公營是黎醫與幫 | | ко | 1月13日，洛阳钼业大宗交易成交120万股，成交额2736万元，占当日总成交额的0.5%，成交价22.8元， 较市场收盘价22.8元持平。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The prices of metal commodities have risen significantly, with COMEX gold and silver increasing by 4.07% and 12.36% respectively, while LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin saw increases of 4.24%, 4.00%, 0.85%, 2.14%, 5.25%, and 12.75% respectively [1] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF, which tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, has shown a remarkable increase of 120% over the past year, with key metals like gold, copper, and aluminum making up nearly 60% of its weight [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ping An Securities, silver is expected to maintain a continuous shortage globally due to its rigid supply characteristics, even amidst short-term demand fluctuations. The long-term supply-demand dynamics for silver are anticipated to remain favorable, driven by the AI industry and overseas re-industrialization [1][8] - Galaxy Securities suggests that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may lead major powers to strengthen their control and reserves of critical strategic metal resources, potentially reshaping global metal supply chains and catalyzing demand and value reassessment for key strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1][8] Group 3: Historical Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a higher elasticity compared to similar indices, with a cumulative increase of 172.62% over the past decade and an annualized growth rate of 10.87% [3][5] - The historical performance of the non-ferrous metal mining theme index indicates fluctuations, with notable annual performances of 39.73% in 2021, -20.60% in 2022, and -11.19% in 2023 [10]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a preference order for the materials sector in 2026: Copper/Gold > Aluminum > Lithium > Coal > Steel [1] - The MSCI China Materials Index is expected to outperform the MSCI China Index this year due to supply disruptions or tight supply and further M&A activities [1] - Zijin Mining (601899)(02899) remains Morgan Stanley's top pick for the year, with continued optimism for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993), China Aluminum (601600)(02600), and China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Based on a positive outlook for copper, Jiangxi Copper (600362)(00358) rating is upgraded to Neutral [1] - Chinese policies are seen as the main driver of commodity prices, but the execution and intensity of anti-involution policies post-Q4 2025 are expected to be milder than anticipated [1] - The effort to reduce excess capacity in the steel sector is a long-term endeavor, and without significant production cuts, steel profit margins are expected to remain low [1] Group 3 - Baosteel (600019)(600019.SH) rating is downgraded to Neutral, while Ansteel (000898)(00347) is downgraded to Underweight [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is a major player in the non-ferrous metals mining industry, focusing on the production of molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, and gold, with significant growth in precious metals business contributing to revenue and profit [2][7]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is the second-largest cobalt producer globally, with cobalt products sold in international markets [2]. - The company operates a comprehensive integrated industrial chain in the non-ferrous metals mining sector, ranking among the top five molybdenum producers and the largest tungsten producer, as well as being a leading copper producer [2]. - The company has a diversified revenue structure, with refined metal product trade accounting for 48.56%, followed by concentrate product trade at 38.31%, and other metals including copper, cobalt, and molybdenum contributing smaller percentages [7]. Recent Developments - In 2023, the company reported a gold equity production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 ounces, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [3]. - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of Odin Mining in Ecuador, aiming for production before 2029 [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion yuan [8]. Market Activity - On January 12, the company's stock price decreased by 0.40%, with a trading volume of 6.773 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.72% [1]. - The stock's average trading cost is reported at 15.44 yuan, with a current price near a resistance level of 23.33 yuan, indicating potential for upward movement if this level is surpassed [6]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 304,200, reflecting a growth of 28.08% [8]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable changes in holdings among the top shareholders [9].

Group 1 - On January 9, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. saw a stock price increase of 5.07% with a trading volume of 5.808 billion yuan. The financing buy amount was 488 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 490 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 1.2631 million yuan. The total financing and securities lending balance reached 3.702 billion yuan as of January 9 [1] - The financing balance of Luoyang Molybdenum on January 9 was 3.674 billion yuan, accounting for 0.92% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level of financing [1] - In terms of securities lending, on January 9, Luoyang Molybdenum repaid 9,400 shares and sold 96,600 shares, with a selling amount of 2.2005 million yuan based on the closing price. The remaining securities lending volume was 1.2203 million shares, with a balance of 27.7984 million yuan, also exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The main business revenue composition includes: refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved an operating income of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Luoyang Molybdenum has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with cumulative distributions of 10.576 billion yuan over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders of Luoyang Molybdenum, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 669.5 million shares, an increase of 47.472 million shares compared to the previous period. Meanwhile, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw reductions in their holdings [3]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices surged to $13,387.5 per ton in early 2024, marking a 65% increase from last year's low, fundamentally altering perceptions of the commodity market [1] - The global demand for copper is projected to increase by 40% by 2040, driven by the growth of new industries such as electric vehicles and data centers, while supply chain disruptions have heightened concerns about availability [3] - The dual drivers of rising copper prices are a weak dollar environment and significant copper stockpiling by the U.S., exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Valuation - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. has seen its market capitalization reach a historical high of 378.6 billion yuan, with its stock price increasing by 243%, reflecting a market reassessment of its value [1] - The company’s copper production is expected to grow by 55% year-on-year in 2024, positioning it among the top ten copper producers globally, with further capacity expansion anticipated [5] - Despite a market cap exceeding 370 billion yuan and a profit surge of 72% in the first three quarters of 2025, the company's valuation remains below half of its historical average, indicating potential for continued growth [5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - Geopolitical instability, particularly in Venezuela, poses risks to copper prices and could lead to volatility in the market, impacting both suppliers and buyers [7] - The evolving U.S. tax policies on copper imports introduce uncertainty that may pressure Chinese companies' exports, complicating the market landscape [7] - The strategic importance of copper is increasingly recognized, with the industry experiencing a significant transformation, suggesting that only companies with robust resources and capabilities will thrive [9]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic for 2026, with expectations of continued price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, despite concerns about high valuations and potential risks in the market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index rising over 8% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historical high of 3369 points on January 9 [1]. - In 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Index recorded a cumulative increase of 91.67%, with leading stocks like Luoyang Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper seeing price increases of 200.7% and 166% respectively [2]. - The futures market also reflected this trend, with LME copper futures prices increasing by over 40% in 2025, and LME tin and aluminum rising by 39% and 17% respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the demand for metals such as copper and aluminum will continue to rise due to increased global electricity construction and investment in power infrastructure, which is expected to outpace GDP growth [2][6]. - The electric aluminum sector is anticipated to mirror the coal market's performance from 2022 to 2024, with limited supply and high dividend yields making it attractive for value investors [3]. - The ongoing macroeconomic environment, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to create a favorable backdrop for both precious and non-ferrous metals [6]. Group 3: Institutional Activity and Caution - There has been a surge in public fund applications for non-ferrous metal-themed ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest in the sector [4]. - Despite the positive sentiment, there is a growing caution among market participants regarding high valuations, with the price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous sector rising from 2 to approximately 3.5 [6]. - Analysts recommend a balanced approach, advising against blindly chasing high valuations while recognizing the ongoing demand and investment opportunities in the sector [6][7].