Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a slight decline in China's medium and thick wide steel plate production in May 2025, while showing an overall increase in production for the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Industry Summary - In May 2025, China's medium and thick wide steel plate production reached 18.87 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [1] - Cumulative production from January to May 2025 was 94.694 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 4.8% compared to the same period in the previous year [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Views - The pace of insurance capital entering the market has accelerated, with insurance potentially adding several hundred billion yuan of long-term funds to the A-share market annually. This influx is expected to benefit low-volatility, high-dividend assets, enhancing their investment value [2][6] - The steel sector is witnessing a confirmation of profit bottoms and a slowdown in capital expenditure, highlighting the dividend attributes of quality leading companies, which are expected to attract long-term incremental capital [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with significant improvements in plate demand due to eased production restrictions in key manufacturing areas. However, the demand during the "Golden September" period appears slightly insufficient [5] - The average daily pig iron production has risen to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 11.71 thousand tons per day, indicating a high level of production [5] - Total steel inventory has increased by 0.83% week-on-week and 0.49% year-on-year, reflecting a buildup in stock levels [5] Price Trends - The price of Shanghai rebar has dropped to 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled steel has increased to 3,410 yuan/ton, up by 10 yuan/ton. The estimated profit for rebar is -87 yuan/ton [5] Policy and Structural Changes - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the steel industry, potentially supporting steel prices by constraining backward production capacity [6][26] - The report anticipates that the supply of iron ore may become more relaxed, with new projects coming online, which could lead to a decrease in iron ore prices [6] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from cost reductions due to new capacities in iron and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Hualing Steel [26] 2. Companies with low price-to-book ratios that may see significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [27] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform theme, which could enhance asset quality and valuation [27] 4. Quality processing leaders and resource leaders, particularly in specialized fields, such as Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co., with a focus on copper and iron resources [27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience with a 3.70% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [10] - The report highlights that the central inspection team has pointed out issues with steel production capacity, indicating a potential tightening of supply management in the industry [3] - Despite current challenges, the demand for steel is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Situation - As of September 12, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points week-on-week [23] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4055 million tons, which is an increase of 117,100 tons week-on-week [23] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.448 million tons, a decrease of 51,800 tons week-on-week [23] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.433 million tons as of September 12, an increase of 155,000 tons week-on-week [31] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 103,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.32% [31] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.951 million tons, an increase of 174,100 tons week-on-week [39] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.195 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons week-on-week [39] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,489.7 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.71 yuan/ton week-on-week [45] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [54] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [68] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is 1,770 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [68]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [5] Core Insights - The steel industry continues to experience an oversupply situation, leading to a decline in steel prices and a year-on-year revenue decrease of 9% for the first half of 2025 and 8% for Q2 2025, although there was a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in Q2 [2][21] - On the cost side, the decline in raw material prices has been greater than that of finished steel, resulting in a year-on-year cost reduction of 11% for the first half of 2025 and 10% for Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% in Q2 [2][24] - Profitability has significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2540% in non-recurring profit for the first half of 2025 and 211% for Q2 2025, alongside a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47% [2][24] - The return on equity (ROE) for listed steel companies has shown recovery, with an ROE of 2.67% for the first half of 2025, up by 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.22% for Q2 2025, up by 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [2][24] Summary by Sections Revenue - The steel industry continues to face an oversupply, with revenues decreasing by 9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 8% in Q2 2025, despite a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in Q2 [2][21][22] Cost - The cost of steel companies has decreased by 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and by 10% in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% in Q2, driven by a larger decline in raw material prices compared to finished steel [2][24] Profit - Non-recurring profits have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 2540% in the first half of 2025 and 211% in Q2 2025, along with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47% in Q2 [2][24] Return on Equity - The ROE for the steel industry has improved, reaching 2.67% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, and 3.22% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.87 percentage points year-on-year [2][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd., Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, and Wujin Stainless Steel [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron production has rebounded to high levels, with daily production exceeding 2.4 million tons. Steel production has slightly decreased, but inventory accumulation has narrowed, suggesting a recovery in demand, although year-on-year demand remains weak. Steel profits are fluctuating around the breakeven point [2][3]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will be on capacity regulation, which is expected to be more precise this time, promoting the survival of the fittest among steel companies. The profitability of steel enterprises is anticipated to recover as new iron ore capacities are gradually released [2][3]. Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends: rebar (20mm HRB400) at 3,210 CNY/ton (down 50 CNY), high line (8.0mm) at 3,360 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY), hot-rolled (3.0mm) at 3,450 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), cold-rolled (1.0mm) at 3,800 CNY/ton (unchanged), and medium plate (20mm) at 3,460 CNY/ton (unchanged) [1][9][10]. Production and Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the total production of five major steel products was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products increased by 174,100 tons to 10.9391 million tons [2][5]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.9807 million tons, down 40,000 tons week-on-week, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 103,100 tons, up 6.32% week-on-week [2][5]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have changed by -31 CNY/ton, +12 CNY/ton, and -8 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. The gross profit margin for electric arc furnace steel decreased by 11 CNY/ton [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. General Steel Sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd. 3. Pipe Materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel 4. High-Temperature Alloy: Fushun Special Steel [2][3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12% on September 12, with 9 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by non-ferrous metals and real estate, which increased by 1.96% and 1.51% respectively [1] - The steel industry ranked third in terms of daily gains, rising by 1.41% [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 53.64 billion yuan, with 6 sectors seeing net inflows, primarily in the non-ferrous metals sector, which had a net inflow of 2.168 billion yuan [1] - The non-bank financial sector had the largest net outflow, totaling 8.138 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with a net outflow of 7.517 billion yuan [1] Steel Industry Performance - The steel industry saw a net inflow of 214 million yuan, with 33 out of 44 stocks in the sector rising, including one stock hitting the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the steel sector were Hualing Steel with 180 million yuan, followed by Bayi Steel with 171 million yuan, and Tai Steel with 60.46 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Performance - The top performers in the steel sector included Hualing Steel, which rose by 5.42%, and Bayi Steel, which increased by 10.02% [2][3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Baosteel with a net outflow of 209 million yuan, Hangang with 85.26 million yuan, and Baogang with 62.14 million yuan [2][3]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a significant rally, with Hualing Steel hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Shougang Co., New Steel Co., Sansteel Minguang, and Jiugang Hongxing, also saw their stock prices rise [1] - Hualing Steel announced that its shareholder, Xintai Life Insurance, plans to increase its stake by acquiring 69.0862 million shares between July 11, 2025, and September 10, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Xintai Life Insurance intends to continue increasing its holdings by at least 1% and up to 2% of the total share capital within six months from the announcement date [1]

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a surge near midday, with Hualing Steel hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Shougang Co., New Steel Co., Sansteel Minguang, Linggang Co., and Chongqing Steel also saw increases in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Hualing Steel increased by 2.07% on September 12, reaching 6.40 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 44.215 billion CNY [1] - Hualing Steel's stock has risen 56.82% year-to-date, with a 14.49% increase over the past 20 days and a 49.15% increase over the past 60 days [1] - The company reported a revenue of 63.092 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.31% to 1.748 billion CNY [2] Group 2 - Hualing Steel has distributed a total of 10.436 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.934 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 19.94% to 90,300, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 16.63% to 76,500 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with notable increases in their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hualing Steel has received increased investment from Xintai Life Insurance, indicating strong confidence in the company's recovery and growth potential in the steel industry [2][4][6]. Shareholding Changes - Xintai Life Insurance increased its stake in Hualing Steel by acquiring 69.09 million shares, raising its total holding to 415 million shares, which is 6% of the company's total equity [4][5]. - Xintai Life plans to continue increasing its stake by an additional 1% to 2% over the next six months [5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hualing Steel reported a net profit of 1.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.31%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.522 billion yuan, up 30.85% [2][9]. - The company's revenue for the same period was 63.092 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.93% year-on-year, while the second quarter saw a net profit of 1.186 billion yuan, reflecting a 111.05% increase from the previous quarter [9][10]. Cost Management - Hualing Steel has implemented various cost control measures, including reducing energy and procurement costs, resulting in a financial expense of -16.1031 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 117 million yuan year-on-year [2][10]. - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 55.62% by the end of June 2025, down 0.40 percentage points from the beginning of the year [10]. Product Development and Market Position - Hualing Steel is focusing on upgrading its product offerings, with 68.5% of its key steel products sold in the first half of 2025, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company aims to enhance its product structure by increasing the proportion of specialty steel, moving from "premium steel" to "specialty steel" [11].