Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group) and 顺丰控股 (SF Holding) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a gradual appreciation of the RMB against the backdrop of easing trade policy uncertainties between the US and China, which enhances the competitiveness of Chinese exports [2][6] - The report notes a slight decrease in the overall activity of mergers and acquisitions in the A-share market, with a total of 66 disclosed transactions amounting to 5233.44 billion RMB, indicating a trend towards structural reorganization despite a decrease in the number of major deals [12] - In the nuclear fusion sector, significant advancements have been made in China's nuclear fusion technology, which is expected to benefit from ongoing investments and the development of related industrial chains [13][15] - The report discusses the emergence of a new market for AI Infra catalyzed quartz fiber cloth, with the company 菲利华 (Philips) leveraging its full industry chain advantages to gain a first-mover advantage in the electronics fabric sector [17][18]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 地产行业属性与传统产能概念差别很大，直接出台相关反内卷政策的概率不高，但也会受到一 些间接影响。反内卷一定程度上将缓和物价下行压力，有助于降低实际利率，但可能对生产、 就业和收入等总量数据造成一定压力。关键还是需求端扩张性政策的配合，既提升居民就业和 收入预期，反内卷又降低实际利率，如此方能更有效地提振地产需求；但如果没有收入提升预 期，物价的提升反而会压制实际可支配收入，提振地产需求依赖总需求扩张引致的良性通胀， 而非供给侧优化之下的成本上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期有所提振， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential rebound in the market due to upcoming policy support and low valuations in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +4.1%, ranking 7th among various sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +4.2%, ranking 6th [2][16]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in 300 cities was reported at 15%, with a total land area sold of 667 million square meters, reflecting a 10% week-on-week increase but a 34% year-on-year decrease [2][27]. - The newly implemented Housing Rental Regulations aim to enhance rental rights and improve the rental market by regulating rental activities and promoting equal rights for renters [5][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 47 cities sold a total of 291 million square meters of commercial housing, with a week-on-week increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][33]. - In June, new home prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a slight expansion in the decline [3][33]. Land Transactions - The report notes that the recent land auction in Shanghai resulted in the highest floor price for residential land in the country, with a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter for the Xujiahui plot [4][13]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amounts include China Overseas, Greentown China, Poly Developments, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with respective acquisition amounts of 54.2 billion, 52.8 billion, 41.4 billion, 35.6 billion, and 34.7 billion yuan [27][30]. Rental Market Regulations - The newly established Housing Rental Regulations consist of 7 chapters and 50 articles, focusing on standardizing rental activities and enhancing the rights of renters [5][15]. - The regulations support the revitalization of old factories and commercial properties for rental purposes and establish a monitoring mechanism for rental prices [5][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from potential policy support, particularly developers with strong positions in core first- and second-tier cities [6]. - Recommended companies include Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Overseas Development, which are expected to perform well due to their ongoing land acquisition capabilities [6].

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as Binjiang Group (002244.SZ) and SF Holding (002352.SZ) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the commercialization of fusion energy in China, with a capital increase of 11.5 billion yuan from seven state-owned enterprises [2][7][9] - The fusion company aims to develop fusion energy through a phased approach, focusing on magnetic confinement Tokamak technology, with the goal of achieving commercial application [8][10] - The report discusses the acquisition plan by GoerTek to purchase 100% equity of Mega Precision Technology Limited and Channel Well Industrial Limited for approximately 9.5 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [3][12][13] - The report emphasizes the strong competitive position of the target companies in the precision metal components sector, which is crucial for high-tech industries [14]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable divergence in performance among listed companies as they release their mid-year earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a trend of declining profits and increasing losses for many firms [1][2][8]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - As of July 17, 2025, 61 real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year earnings forecasts, with a total expected loss ranging from 342.56 billion to 464.97 billion [2]. - Among these, 24 companies anticipate profits while 37 expect losses, indicating that 60% of the firms are projected to report losses [2]. - The overall trend shows a decline in performance, with companies like Jin Di Group and Huashang City experiencing significant losses, while some firms like Dayue City and Chengjian Development have managed to turn losses into profits [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - In the group of 24 companies expecting profits, only Poly Developments and Binjiang Group are projected to earn over 1 billion, with Poly's profit expected to drop by 63.15% year-on-year [3][4]. - Binjiang Group's profit is expected to increase by 40% to 70%, attributed to a higher volume of delivered properties compared to the previous year [3]. - Chengjian Development is expected to achieve a profit of 4.4 billion to 6.54 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of up to 575.14% due to successful project deliveries [4]. Group 3: Losses and First-Time Losses - Among the 37 companies forecasting losses, 13 are expected to report their first-ever losses, including Shahe Shares and Xijiang Holdings, with some firms projecting losses exceeding 10 billion [5][7]. - Vanke is anticipated to incur the highest loss, estimated between 100 billion and 120 billion, due to a significant decline in project settlement scale and low gross margins [6][7]. - Greenland Holdings and Xinda Real Estate are also expected to report substantial losses, with estimates of 30 billion to 35 billion [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall performance of real estate companies reflects the ongoing downward trend in the market, with sales volume and price indicators weakening [8][9]. - However, there are indications of potential recovery in the second half of the year, with expectations of a turning point as market conditions improve [8]. - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales volume of 18,364.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.8%, but the rate of decline is slowing [9].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [9] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector continues to see low allocation, with leading real estate companies presenting good investment opportunities. The total market value of heavy holdings in the real estate sector among public funds was 25.67 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decrease of 11.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a holding ratio of 0.83%, which is 0.37 percentage points lower than the industry standard [4][10][17]. Summary by Sections Industry: Fund Holdings Decline, Low Allocation Trend Continues - In Q2 2025, the total market value of heavy holdings in the real estate sector among sample funds was 25.67 billion yuan, down 11.3% quarter-on-quarter. The holding ratio was 0.83%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points, indicating a relative underweight of 0.37 percentage points compared to the industry standard [10][17]. Sector: Development and Service Sectors See Decline - In Q2 2025, the heavy holding ratios for the real estate development and service sectors were 0.74% and 0.09%, respectively, both showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.11 and 0.02 percentage points [11][22]. Individual Stocks: Focus on State-Owned Enterprises and Commercial Real Estate - The top five heavy holdings in the real estate development sector were Poly Developments (4.902 billion yuan), China Merchants Shekou (3.193 billion yuan), and others. Notably, New Town Holdings and China Resources Land saw increases in holdings of 466 million yuan and 202 million yuan, respectively [12][24]. Funds: Northbound Funds Increase Holdings in Poly, Southbound Funds Add to Beike, Longfor, and Greentown - In Q2 2025, the top five companies with increased northbound fund holdings included Poly Developments (+1.37 percentage points) and others. Southbound funds increased holdings in Beike-W (+2.15 percentage points) and Longfor Group (+2.04 percentage points) [13][35]. Investment Recommendations: Continue to Recommend Leading State-Owned Enterprises and Improvement-Oriented Real Estate Companies - The real estate sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with policies supporting market stabilization. The report suggests focusing on leading state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and high-quality products, such as Jianfa International Group and Greentown China [14][38].

Key Insights - The report highlights a focus on the humanoid robot industry, which has seen a significant increase in market attention, with the National Securities Robot Industry Index rising by 7.6% from July 7 to July 18, 2025 [6][8] - Major factors driving this resurgence include substantial orders from leading companies, capital acquisitions, influential statements from industry leaders, and supportive government policies aimed at fostering innovation in humanoid robotics [7][8] - The report also notes that the active equity fund median position reached 90.63% in Q2 2025, indicating a historical high and a shift towards increased allocations in TMT, Hong Kong stocks, and machinery sectors [9][10] Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot market is experiencing a revival, with key players like China Mobile placing significant orders, which serve as a validation of product functionality and market readiness [6][7] - The report identifies a trend of increased capital activity, with companies pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance their market positions [7] - Government initiatives are also playing a crucial role, with policies aimed at promoting the development of humanoid robots and related technologies [8] Active Equity Fund Analysis - The report indicates that the highest allocation sectors for active equity funds in Q2 2025 were TMT (23.37%), Hong Kong stocks (20.41%), and machinery (19.68%), reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [9][10] - The report emphasizes that the current allocation levels are above historical averages for several sectors, indicating a bullish sentiment among fund managers [9][10] AI Computing Industry - The AI computing supply chain is entering a phase of maturity, driven by advancements in generative AI and large language models, leading to a closure of the demand-supply loop [11][12] - The report highlights that the infrastructure for AI computing is expected to see continued investment, with significant growth in demand for high-end AI servers [12][13] - The competition in the PCB industry is intensifying due to the rising demand for AI servers, with a projected 150% increase in demand for high-density interconnect (HDI) boards [13]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is experiencing mixed results in the first half of 2025, with some companies reporting profit increases while others continue to face significant losses [1][10]. Group 1: Profit Increases - Among the listed real estate companies, Poly Developments and Binjiang Group are leading with profit increases, with Binjiang Group expecting a net profit of 1.632 billion to 1.982 billion yuan, marking a growth of 40%-70% due to increased project deliveries [3][2]. - Other companies achieving profit increases include Nandu Property, New Huangpu, Tianchen Shares, Tianbao Infrastructure, Deep Deep Property, and Shen Property [4][5]. Group 2: Profit Turnarounds - Fourteen companies, including Chengjian Development and Daxin City, have successfully turned losses into profits, with Chengjian Development expecting a net profit of 440 million to 654 million yuan [8][9]. - Daxin City anticipates a turnaround with a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan, compared to a loss of 364 million yuan in the previous year [8]. Group 3: Continued Losses - Vanke and Huaxia Happiness are among the companies still facing substantial losses, with Vanke projecting a net loss of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan due to decreased project settlements and high financial costs [10][11]. - Huaxia Happiness expects a net loss of 5.5 billion to 7.5 billion yuan, an increase from a loss of 4.849 billion yuan in the same period last year [11]. - Other companies like Jindi Group and Greenland Holdings are also forecasting significant losses, with Jindi expecting a net loss of 4.2 billion to 3.4 billion yuan [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive momentum in the real estate sector, driven by favorable policies and market conditions, particularly focusing on the performance of the real estate ETF (159707) [1][3][4] - The real estate ETF has seen significant trading activity, with a peak price increase of over 1.4% and a real-time transaction amount reaching 145 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 0.4% in the balance of real estate loans by the end of the second quarter, signaling a stabilization in the credit environment for the sector [3] Group 2 - The central urban work conference, held for the first time in ten years, emphasizes policy support for revitalizing existing properties and urban renewal, which is expected to stimulate housing demand [3] - The land market is showing signs of recovery, with the premium rate for land auctions in Hangzhou rising significantly to 29.65%, reflecting increased market confidence [3] - The real estate fund industry has reached a scale of 1.8 trillion yuan, marking an end to five years of decline, indicating a potential turning point for investment in the sector [3] Group 3 - The real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, which includes 13 leading real estate companies, showcasing a high concentration of top-tier firms with over 90% weight in the top ten constituents [4] - Analysts suggest that the shift towards selling existing homes will have a long-term impact on the real estate industry and the operational models of real estate companies, with a focus on the implementation of local policies and support measures [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - In June, the overall land supply volume increased month-on-month, but the pace of core land supply continued to slow down. The overall transaction volume also saw a month-on-month increase, with the premium rate continuing its downward trend since March, while the auction failure rate remained low [2][10] - Major players such as Jianfa, Zhonghai, and Poly were active in the land market in June, with Jianfa, Jinmao, Binhai, and Greentown showing strong land acquisition intensity from January to June. Jianfa, Greentown, and Jinmao achieved better sales performance [2][8] - The quality of land acquired by sample real estate companies in June was higher for Greentown, Jinmao, and Jianfa, reflecting a focus on regional advantages, product strength, and low inventory among leading companies, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [2][10] Summary by Sections Supply - In June, the overall land supply volume increased by 38.4% month-on-month compared to May, but the supply of core land decreased compared to April and May. From January to June, the cumulative launched residential land area in 300 cities decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 23.9% increase, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 23.3% decrease [6][10] Transactions - The transaction volume in June increased by 43.5% month-on-month, with the transaction amount rising by 98.3%. The cumulative transaction area and amount in 300 cities from January to June decreased by 4.3% and increased by 28.0% year-on-year, respectively [7][10] Real Estate Companies - In June, Jianfa, Zhonghai, and Poly were the top three in land acquisition amounts, with total acquisition amounts of 21.9 billion, 11 billion, and 8.9 billion respectively. From January to June, Jianfa, Poly, and Jinmao led in total land acquisition amounts, with 59.2 billion, 50.9 billion, and 49.2 billion respectively [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on medium to long-term structural opportunities, emphasizing leading companies with regional advantages, product strength, and low inventory, as well as those with stable cash flow [10]