作者：金股通 本文源自：金融界 截至7月31日开盘一小时，主力资金流出前20的股票分别为：包钢股份（-12.02亿元）、长江电力 （-8.42亿元）、宁德时代（-7.98亿元）、北方稀土（-6.91亿元）、贵州茅台（-6.50亿元）、比亚迪 （-5.10亿元）、贝因美（-4.18亿元）、五 粮 液（-3.08亿元）、西宁特钢（-2.53亿元）、张江高科 （-2.50亿元）、天齐锂业（-2.41亿元）、万华化学（-2.38亿元）、通威股份（-2.36亿元）、盛和资源 （-2.32亿元）、山西汾酒（-2.27亿元）、赛力斯（-2.20亿元）、保利发展（-2.17亿元）、华友钴业 （-2.16亿元）、雅化集团（-2.03亿元）、豪威集团（-2.02亿元）。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6633209 | 永杉锂业 | 3488.97万 | 9.19% | 2096.53万 | 5.52% | -5585.50万 | -14.71% | | 002240 盛新锂能 | | 2769.67万 | 3.19% | 1326.90万 | 1.53% | -4096.57万 | -4.72% | | 605376 博迁新材 | | -1263.61万 | -5.20% | 754.57万 | 3.11% | 509.04万 | 2.10% | | 000762 西藏矿业 | | -2416.89万 | -4.93% | -341.23万 | -0.70% | 2758.12万 | 5.63% | | 002756 永兴材料 | | -2673.62万 | -5.54% | 1157.08万 | 2.40% | 1516.54万 | 3.14% | | 0004 ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced significant declines, with Tianqi Lithium down 3.82% to 36.5 HKD and Ganfeng Lithium down 3.36% to 27.35 HKD [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate, LC2509, saw a substantial reduction in positions, with a drop of 6% [1] - According to CITIC Futures, the weekly production from SMM showed a slight decline, primarily due to reduced output from salt lake sources, while the impact of maintenance on actual supply was limited [1] Group 2 - The overall inventory trend remains upward, but strong price increases are causing inventory to shift from upstream to intermediate stages [2] - Despite production cuts in Jiangxi and Qinghai, domestic output continues to rise, while July saw a year-on-year decline in retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles, with only the energy storage market showing growth [2] - The anticipated "anti-involution" policy in the bulk commodity market has made compliance risks regarding mining licenses in Jiangxi a focal point in the lithium carbonate market [2]

Market Overview - The energy metals sector increased by 0.59% on July 29, with Boqian New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3609.71, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11289.41, up 0.64% [1] Stock Performance - Boqian New Materials (605376) closed at 42.28, up 4.21%, with a trading volume of 102,200 shares and a turnover of 427 million yuan [1] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) closed at 46.48, up 2.38%, with a trading volume of 850,800 shares and a turnover of 3.968 billion yuan [1] - Tengyuan Mining (301219) closed at 59.04, up 2.06%, with a trading volume of 127,000 shares and a turnover of 758 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include: - Sai Rui Mining (300618) at 38.55, up 1.10% [1] - Yongxing Materials (002756) at 36.58, up 0.61% [1] - Cangge Mining (000408) at 47.68, up 0.51% [1] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector experienced a net outflow of 36.08 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 13.8 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 174 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Tengyuan Mining (301219) had a net inflow of 66.62 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors faced a net outflow of 80.57 million yuan [3] - Boqian New Materials (605376) saw a net inflow of 65.08 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also experiencing a net outflow of 53.37 million yuan [3] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) had a net outflow of 21.46 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 9.79 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal increase in inventory and slight fluctuations in the prices of base metals, with a focus on the ongoing macroeconomic environment and its impact on supply and demand dynamics [6][11]. - The report suggests that the long-term supply-demand structure is being reshaped, indicating limited downside potential for base metal prices and encouraging investors to seek new entry points, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the domestic industrial metal prices have shown slight fluctuations, with the non-ferrous metal index outperforming the market. The weekly price changes for LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc were 0.0%, -0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.2%, respectively, while SHFE prices were 1.1%, 1.2%, 0.8%, and 2.6% [6][20][21]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report tracks three macroeconomic factors: 1. China's June export value increased by 6% year-on-year, with total exports amounting to $325.2 billion [6][27]. 2. U.S. inflation showed an uptick, with the June CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year [6][33]. 3. The European economic sentiment index continued to rise, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49.5 [6][36]. Base Metals Analysis - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment remains strong, but market sentiment has cooled, leading to a price retreat. The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 10,000 tons, reaching 43.975 million tons, with production at 843,400 tons, a slight increase of 0.02% [6][40][41]. - The report indicates that the aluminum processing sector's operating rate decreased by 0.1%, averaging 58.7% as of July 24, 2025 [6][43]. - In terms of inventory, domestic aluminum ingot inventory rose by 36,000 tons to 577,000 tons, while global inventory increased by 42,300 tons to 1.2921 million tons [6][43][44]. Profitability Metrics - The report states that the immediate profit per ton for the aluminum industry remains above 3,500 yuan, with the current spot aluminum price at 20,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.19% increase [6][43].

Group 1: ETF Performance - The Rare Metals ETF has a turnover rate of 6.87% with a transaction volume of 83.93 million yuan, and it ranks first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week at 131 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the Rare Metals ETF reached 1.22 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares reached 1.843 billion, a three-month high, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past six days, the Rare Metals ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a single-day peak of 50.91 million yuan, totaling 177 million yuan in net inflows [3] - As of July 28, 2025, the ETF's net value has increased by 59.46% over the past year, ranking 267 out of 2938 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 9.09% [3] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being three months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06%, averaging a monthly return of 7.76% [3] - The ETF has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized return of 9.87% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Market Insights - Huatai Securities notes that the domestic "anti-involution" policies are intensifying, combined with recent overseas fiscal and monetary easing, leading to strong performance in the metals sector [4] - The price of polysilicon has successfully recovered, boosting market confidence, which has spilled over into lithium carbonate and alumina [4] - Lithium, cobalt, and rare earths have found price bottoms from a cost perspective, with independent factors driving price increases, such as stricter mining rights reviews for lithium and strategic enhancements and shortages for rare earths [4] - Zhongyou Securities highlights that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has banned cobalt exports since February, with extensions in June, leading to a depletion of in-transit cobalt mines, and anticipates that the peak season in September and October will drive inventory reductions [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index as of June 30, 2025, include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, China Rare Earth, Western Superconducting, Zhongmin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 54.07% of the index [4]

Summary of Global Energy Storage Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the lithium market, specifically the pricing dynamics and supply-demand balance in the global energy storage sector [1][2][3][4][5][10]. Key Points on Lithium Pricing - Spot lithium carbonate price fell to a 4-year low of $8.2k/t before rebounding to $9.5k/t, which is still below the marginal cash cost of $11.5k/t [1][2][28]. - Lithium prices have declined by 10% year-to-date, with significant underperformance from higher-cost Australian lithium miners, which have seen declines of 15-20% [2][12]. - Nearly half of global lithium production cannot cover cash costs at current prices, indicating limited downside for further price declines [4][30]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global lithium supply reached 630ktpa LCE, surpassing demand of 570ktpa LCE from January to May, leading to elevated inventories in China [3][15][70]. - China's lithium inventory rose from 115kt to 150kt, with inventory days remaining high at 35-40 days, above the long-term average of 25 days [20][60]. - Demand for lithium is expected to grow by 300ktpa by 2025, which will be met by supply growth of approximately 350ktpa, keeping prices in check [5][48]. Future Price Projections - The forecast for lithium prices has been adjusted, with expectations of $9.5k/t in 2025, $13k/t in 2026, and $19k/t in 2027, which remains above consensus estimates [6][10]. - The long-term price assumption for lithium carbonate is set at $15k/t, indicating a potential upside for companies like Tianqi Lithium, which is currently pricing in a conservative long-term price of $10k/t [7][54]. Company-Specific Insights - Tianqi Lithium has been highlighted as a key player, with an Outperform rating maintained despite lowered earnings estimates due to the revised lithium price assumptions [10][54]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is projected to be over 50% above consensus, suggesting strong potential despite current market challenges [10][54]. Investment Implications - The lithium market is expected to remain cyclical, with a potential recovery anticipated in 2026 as supply growth slows and demand continues to rise [12][51]. - The current pricing environment is deemed unsustainable for lithium producers, with significant implications for future investments and capacity expansions [10][33][37]. Conclusion - The lithium market is currently characterized by oversupply and declining prices, but a tightening market is expected in the coming years as capacity additions slow and demand continues to grow, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [48][51][52].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Views - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, leading to a comprehensive rise in metal prices, particularly strategic metals [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metals and bottom energy metal allocation opportunities, highlighting the revaluation of rare earths and tungsten [4] - The report suggests that the domestic growth stabilization and anti-involution policies are enhancing expectations, which is driving up domestic commodity prices [5][6] Summary by Sections Strategic Metals - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation, with significant price increases expected due to government focus and international supply chain developments [4] - The price of rare earth concentrate has increased to 19,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4] - Tungsten prices are also on the rise, supported by strong supply dynamics and improving company performance [4] Energy Metals - The report indicates a high probability of short-term price increases for cobalt, with a significant drop in imports noted [4] - Cobalt intermediate imports in June fell to 18,991 tons, a decrease of 61.6% month-on-month [4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term price expectations likely to rise [4] Lithium - The report notes a bottoming out of lithium prices, with recent regulatory changes indicating stricter domestic mining controls [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded by 15.2% to 76 CNY/kg [24] - The report suggests monitoring potential resource releases in the lithium sector [4] Precious Metals - Gold prices are fluctuating due to improved risk appetite and easing trade tensions, with a recommendation to increase allocation to precious metal stocks [4][6] - The report highlights that gold stocks have underperformed, suggesting a strategic buying opportunity [4] - Silver is noted for its potential upside, with a recommendation to consider silver stocks for recovery [4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are experiencing mixed performance, with domestic prices leading international trends [5][6] - Copper prices on the SHFE increased by 1.1%, while aluminum prices rose by 1.2% [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on metal demand [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on July 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.22%, and the ChiNext down by 0.23% [1] - A total of 2,532 stocks rose while 2,724 stocks fell, with market turnover at 1.82 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 50 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The multi-modal AI sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Tianrun Technology, Yinsai Group, Hanwang Technology, and Jingye Da hitting the daily limit [1] Sector Performance - The medical device sector rose against the market trend, with the medical device index increasing by 1.07%. Notable stocks included Kangtai Medical and Zhengchuan Co., which both hit the daily limit [2] - The recent launch of the 11th batch of centralized procurement by the National Medical Insurance Administration is expected to optimize procurement rules, moving away from a sole focus on low prices [2] - Citic Securities anticipates that the medical device sector will see valuation and performance recovery due to the new procurement rules and product innovation opportunities [2] Fund Flow Analysis - For the week of July 21 to 25, A-share main funds saw a net outflow of 123.735 billion yuan, with significant outflows in machinery, basic chemicals, computers, and power equipment sectors [3] - Only three sectors experienced net inflows: banking (14.46 billion yuan), beauty care (3.52 billion yuan), and the comprehensive sector (48.32 million yuan) [4] - Notable individual stocks with over 1 billion yuan net inflow included Xingsen Technology, Ningde Times, and Tianqi Lithium, with Xingsen Technology leading at 7.71 billion yuan [4] Lithium Market Insights - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of oversupply, but improvements in supply due to policy tightening and capacity clearance are expected [5] - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose by 7.21% to 76,700 yuan per ton, rebounding over 30% from the end of June [4] - By 2027-2028, it is projected that lithium carbonate supply and demand will balance, with prices potentially exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton [5] ETF Information - The 500 Quality Growth ETF, tracking the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index, has seen a recent increase of 2.57% over five days, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.90 times [7]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures prices have been on a continuous rise, with a maximum intraday increase of 7.86% on July 24, reaching 77,140 yuan/ton, and closing at 76,680 yuan/ton, up over 20% since the beginning of the month [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Shanghai has rebounded to 70,150 yuan/ton as of July 24, marking a 14.9% increase since the start of July [1] - The price increase is attributed to a combination of policy guidance, supply adjustments, and improved demand, with policies aimed at reducing excess capacity and increasing strategic reserves [1] Group 2 - Local authorities in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, have mandated eight lithium mining companies to compile resource verification reports by September 30, tightening regulations on lithium resource development [2] - Cangge Mining's subsidiary has been ordered to cease illegal mining activities and rectify compliance issues before resuming production [2] - Industry experts suggest that the market is nearing a clearing phase, with prices expected to stabilize if further capacity reductions and substantial downstream demand materialize [2] Group 3 - Several lithium-related companies have reported positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with Tianqi Lithium expecting a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the previous year [3] - Welling New Energy anticipates a net profit of 0 to 5 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 51 million yuan, due to diversification into multi-metal mining [3] - Tibet Summit Resources expects a net profit of 204 million to 306 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.31% to 138.96%, while Cangge Mining forecasts a profit of 1.75 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, up 34.93% to 46.49% [3] Group 4 - The positive earnings outlook for lithium companies is driven by cost optimization and price rebounds, although there are concerns that supply-side stabilization could pressure prices and affect second-half performance [4]